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This thesis examines the use of precision agriculture data, specifically yield maps, for makingsite-specific economic decisions for improved farm management. The adoption of precisionagriculture on farms has allowed producers to collect a greater quantity and more specificinformation about production than ever before. With such information, site-specific decisions canbe made. Incorporating economic data with yield map data, two primary decision examples aredeveloped: defining areas of production and nonproduction and managing temporal risk spatiallyacross a field. Included with the production/ nonproduction decision are the effects that landtenure arrangements and risk aversion levels have on the decision. The risk maps are developedusing break-even analysis, the coefficient of variation, and a mean-variance framework, all based ona twenty year average of temporal net returns, measured spatially. The risk maps are repeatedincorporating a crop insurance option, a commonly used risk management tool. Results show thatdeveloping these maps can be used by agricultural producers to help with their decision making. Byincorporating these maps into the decision-making process, decisions can be made to increase farmprofitability.

The aim of this bachelor thesis was to investigate how local farmers of sunflower and local processors of sunflower oil in Babati, Tanzania perceive constraints and possibilities to value chain upgrading by conducting a case study. Open-ended interviews were conducted during a period of eight weeks with local sunflower farmers, local sunflower processors and other actors with knowledge of the sunflower value chain. The results from the study show that the main constraints perceived by farmers were lack of capital and incentive to buy new seeds, lack of knowledge of how to re-plant old seeds, their lack of bargaining position and market knowledge which together put restrains on their market access. The main constraints, perceived by local processors, were lack of access to credit, lack of market access with regard to sunflower cakes, a bi-product of sunflower oil production, and a shortage of sunflower seeds on the local market. With regard to the shortage of seeds produced in the area this was discussed further with the respondents as it seems to be connected with actors need for diversification as a form of risk aversion. The main upgrading options as perceived by farmers were value addition by also processing and selling the sunflower oil and different forms of horizontal integration. The main upgrading option perceived by local processors of sunflower oil was an insourcing of the labelling and packaging of sunflower oil which would create access to higher value markets.

abstract: Delay discounting is the decline in the present value of a reward with delay to its receipt. (Mazur,1987). The delay discounting task is used to measure delay discounting rate, which requires the participants to choose between two options: one involves immediate delivery of a reward, and other involves delivery after a delay, and the immediate rewards are adjusted in value until the subject feels there is no difference between the immediate and the delayed reward. Some previous studies (Robles and Vargas, 2007; 2008; Robles et al., 2009) found that the order of presentation of the immediate rewards (ascending or descending) significantly influenced the estimated delay discounting rate, which is known as the order effect. Uncertainty about the future and impulsivity could explain delay discounting behavior. The purpose of this study was to explore the order effect in delay discounting assessment. The current study found that the order effect in the delay discounting task can be explained by risk aversion, loss aversion and impulsivity. In the current study, the two kinds of fixed procedure (ascending and descending), and the titrating delay discounting task were used to estimate the degree of delay discounting. Also, two gambling tasks were applied to measure risk and loss aversion indices. The BIS-11 scale was used to assess the level of trait impulsivity. The results indicated that impulsivity biases individuals to choose the immediate small reward rather than the large delayed reward, resulting in lower area under the discounting curve (AUC) when estimated with the ascending-sequence delay discounting task. Also, impulsivity moderated the relationship between loss aversion and AUC estimated with the descending-sequence delay discounting task. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Psychology 2018

In Canada, bail supervision programs were developed, in partnership with community-based organizations, to promote bail compliance and provide supervision to accused persons who would otherwise have been detained in remand custody. While many of these programs use traditional risk assessment tools to guide supervision, limited research has been conducted on their effectiveness in the bail supervision context. Adopting a quantitative as well as qualitative methodology, this study uses a representative sample of 100 supervision clients from one Ontario bail program to examine the validity of its risk tool – Service Planning Instrument™ (SPIn) Pre-Screen – as well as demographic and criminal justice factors, in predicting bail supervision outcomes. Analyses suggest that SPIn lacks predictive validity in the bail supervision setting. These findings are discussed within the broader context of net widening, as well as the greater bail/remand crisis and the culture of risk aversion that pervades the Canadian criminal justice system.

This paper attempts to provide experimental evidence on fire prevention and risk aversion among urban informal settlers using lottery choice data with real monetary prizes. The paper estimates the risk attitudes of a sample of 174 individuals from an informal housing development in Cape Town. The empirical analysis is performed within the expected utility theory specification, assuming constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) defined over the lottery prize. We tests the hypothesis that risk averse individuals will take precautionary measures in as far as possible to mitigate the risk of fire to their household. We find that individual-level fire prevention measures that are within the means of the households to effect, such as making sure that matches, lighters and paraffin are kept out of reach of children, is correlated with risk aversion, but measures, such as building of homes at least 3-5 meters from the neighbours, does not seem to be within the choice set of low-income informal dwellers. Our results further indicate that subjects who engage in fire prevention/fire safety strategies that require the "most effort" (that are most effective and costly) are significantly more risk averse relative to subjects engaging in fire safety measures that need "least effort". Contrary to expectation, distance from the main road, informal electricity connection, and the use of paraffin for lighting, heating and cooking are not correlated with risk aversion, indicating that irrespective of the risk profiles of decision makers, low-income households are often forced to make choices that increase their exposure to fire hazards.

As personal backgrounds and experiences vary, emotions stemming from exposure to violence shape a manager's risk perception and investment strategies. We document significant variation in the risk exposure of managers who were raised in states with higher per capita violence rates than those who were not. Although managers exposed to violence tend to hold more stocks in their portfolios, take less idiosyncratic risk, hold portfolios with betas closer to 1, and have less concentrated portfolios, these managers' risk-adjusted performance is not statistically different than that of their counterparts who were not exposed to violence.

Many poor farmers, especially in Africa, have not adopted recent farming innovations to improve their yields. One theory is that poor farmers are risk averse and therefore do not invest in high risk high return innovations and that risk averse farmers will only adopt larger innovations if they experience success with small ones. Risk preferences were measured in two districts in Uganda (Tororo and Kapchorwa) where adoption of agricultural innovations has been slow, and where a program is underway to encourage use of conservation agriculture practices (CAPs) to reduce soil erosion and sequester carbon. An ordered lottery selection was used to measure risk preferences and an ordered probit model was estimated. Thirty five percent of a random sample of 200 farmers in Tororo (and fifty three percent of 200 farmers in Kapchorwa) made lottery choices that implied severe or extreme risk aversion. However there was no indication that risk preferences correlate with willingness to adopt new technologies (such as CAPs). Neither wealth nor previous success with technology adoption were found to correlate with farmers' risk preferences. / Master of Science / CCRA-6 (Economic and Impact Analysis)

Abstract In this paper, we examine the behavior of subjects in a mock financial investment experiment to investigate the effects of “skin in the game” and ego utility on hedonic information acquisition decisions. We observe how often subjects “check” their portfolios after given general market returns, and whether conditions impact the existence and magnitude of the ostrich effect – the tendency to avoid information expected to be negative. When considering these experiment conditions as well as subject sex, risk aversion, curiosity, financial literacy and investing experience, we do not find an ostrich effect. We do find that females check their portfolios more often on average than males. Finally, we find that risk-averse people will check their portfolios more often, regardless of market returns or sex.

The objective of this thesis is to examine the impacts of changes in Canada’s AgriStability program on crop allocation, particularly the change in the payment trigger associated with the shift from Growing Forward (GF) to Growing Forward 2 (GF2). To examine whether this change could affect production decisions, and thereby potentially violate the WTO’s ‘green box’ criteria, farm management models are constructed for representative farms in six different Alberta regions. To incorporate risk and uncertainty into the farm model, I assume that, instead of maximizing overall gross margin, a farmer varies her crop activities to maximize expected utility subject to technological and market constraints. The models are calibrated using positive mathematical programming (PMP), which then facilitates their use for policy analysis; however, PMP is not straightforward in the case of expected utility maximization because a risk parameter also needs to be calibrated. Possible ways to address this issue are examined. Results indicate that the initial introduction of the AgriStability program tilted farmers’ planting decisions towards crops with higher returns and greater risk, but that a change in the AgriStability payout trigger (going from GF to GF2) would not further alter land-use decisions. However, the latter shift does reduce indemnities and farmers’ expected profits. Meanwhile, increases in farmers’ aversion to risk will lead to changes in crop allocations. / Graduate / 0503 / 0508 / sheriliu@uvic.ca