Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Human actions modify the environment and increase the degradation of water resources, which are limited and fundamental to the maintenance of life. Thus, it is vital that these resources are quantified, so they can be evaluated and protected, in search of self-sustainability. The application of a hydrological model allows the simulation of different scenarios, becoming a tool for planning and management for the respective committee of the basin, where alternative uses can be simulated beforehand and measures for the preservation of the same. Hydrological processes, such as climatic variables, change the water regime and the hydrological response of the basin. This study presents the results of the simulations with the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model in a small watershed in Southern Brazil (latitude 29°38'37.49" and longitude 53°48'21.99"), representative of the Atlantic Forest biome. This area was monitored by two sequential stations, each one with one rain gauge and one stage gauge, having a contribution area of 4.5 km² and 12 km ² respectively. The altitudes in the basin range from 316 m to 431 m and vegetation is predominantly composed of 55% of native forest and 39% of native pasture. The simulated period was from June 2008 to December 2009, corresponding to the period of monitoring. The temperature ranged from -2.2°C to 39.2°C. The annual rainfall average ranged between 2005 mm and 2250 mm. The quality of the results was characterized by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index (NSE) and by the coefficient of determination (R²). The model was evaluated in a monthly and daily time step. At the monthly time step, the values obtained for NSE, in the calibration phase, were 0.80 and 0.60, respectively for the two sections. The values obtained for the R² were 0.81 and 0.61 in the same sections. In the daily time step, values obtained for NSE, in the calibration phase, was 0.36, for both sections. For R², these values were 0.38 and 0.37 in the respective sections. These results show that the fit was good for monthly values, but not for the daily. Due to the short period of monitoring, the validation of the model results was realized with the observed data from the middle section, with an area of 4.5 km². The values obtained for the NSE in the validation phase were 0.75 and 0.37 for the monthly and daily time step respectively, and for R², 0.75 and 0.37 for the monthly and daily values, which validate the fit. These results are in agreement with the values found by Paiva and Paiva (2006), who evaluated the SWAT in a downstream section, in the same basin, with an area of 18 km². These results show that the SWAT model fits well in this region with monthly time step. Probably, the low values of the adjustment for the daily time step and the main problems of using the model are due to the size of the basin, the short period of observed data and the need for more information on the physical characterization of the soil. Future climatic scenarios A2 (reflects the high emission of greenhouse gases and is considered pessimist) and B2 (reflects the low emission of greenhouse gases and is considered optimist) show that the maximum flows reach more extreme values in the future, the average temperature, maximum and minimum showed a variation of about 1° C. The pessimistic scenario considered A2 showed more extreme values so calculated as to the input data of water flow. / As ações antrópicas modificam o meio ambiente e aumentam o processo de degradação dos recursos hídricos, os quais são limitados e fundamentais à manutenção da vida. Deste modo, é vital que estes recursos sejam quantificados, para que possam ser avaliados e protegidos, em busca da auto-sustentabilidade. A aplicação de um modelo hidrológico possibilita a simulação de diferentes cenários, constituindo-se uma ferramenta de planejamento e gestão para o respectivo comitê da bacia, onde alternativas de uso poderão ser simuladas e medidas previamente para a preservação da mesma. Processos hidrológicos, como as variáveis climáticas, alteram o regime hídrico e a resposta hidrológica da bacia. Este trabalho apresenta os resultados da simulação com o modelo SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) em uma pequena bacia representativa do Bioma Mata Atlântica, no Sul do Brasil (latitude 29°38'37,49" e longitude 53°48'21,99"), monitorada por duas estações fluviográficas/pluviográficas seqüenciais, com área de contribuição de 4,5 Km² e 12 km² respectivamente. As altitudes na bacia variam de 316,21 m a 431,21 m e a cobertura vegetal predominante é composta por 55% de mata nativa e 39 % de campo nativo. O período simulado foi de junho de 2008 a dezembro de 2009, correspondendo ao período de monitoramento. A temperatura variou entre -2,2 °C a 39,2 °C. A precipitação média anual variou entre 2005 mm e 2250 mm. A qualidade do ajuste dos resultados foi caracterizada pelo índice de eficiência de Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) e pelo coeficiente de determinação R². O modelo foi avaliado na escala mensal e diária. Na escala mensal os valores obtidos para NSE, na fase de calibração, foram de 0,80 e 0,60, respectivamente para as duas seções. Os valores obtidos para o R² foram 0,81 e 0,61 nas mesmas seções. Na escala diária os valores obtidos para NSE, na fase de calibração, foram de 0,36, para ambas as seções e os valores obtidos para o R² foram 0,38 e 0,37 nas respectivas seções. Estes resultados mostram que o ajuste foi satisfatório para valores mensais, o mesmo não ocorrendo para valores diários. Devido ao pequeno período de monitoramento, para a verificação da qualidade do ajuste dos resultados do modelo utilizou-se os resultados obtidos na seção fluviométrica intermediária, com área de 4,5 Km². Os valores obtidos para o índice de eficiência de Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) na verificação foram 0,75 para simulação mensal e 0,37 para a simulação diária e os valores obtidos para o coeficiente de determinação (R²) foram 0,75 para valores mensais e 0,37 para valores diários, o que valida o ajuste obtido. Estes resultados estão em concordância com os valores encontrados por Paiva e Paiva (2006), que avaliaram o SWAT em uma seção de jusante, na mesma bacia, com área de 18 km². Os resultados mostram que o modelo SWAT se adapta bem nesta região com discretização mensal. Provavelmente, os baixos valores de ajuste na calibração diária e os principais problemas de utilização do modelo são devidos ao tamanho da bacia, ao pequeno período de dados e a necessidade de maiores informações sobre a caracterização física do solo. Os cenários climáticos futuros A2 (reflete a alta emissão de gases de efeito estufa, sendo considerado pessimista) e B2 (reflete a baixa emissão de gases de efeito estufa, sendo considerado otimista) mostraram que as vazões máximas poderão alcançar valores mais extremos no futuro; as temperaturas médias, máximas e mínimas apresentaram uma variação aproximada de 1ºC. O cenário A2 considerado pessimista apresentou valores mais extremos tanto para vazão calculada como para os dados de entrada.

An analysis of the air temperature and precipitation for historical and future experiments of regional climate models from Euro-CORDEX activity is presented. A validation of models was performed for the time period 1989 - 2005 using the comparison of model results with E-OBS dataset which represents real values. For this period results show good agreement for temperature, much worse agreement appears for precipitation where their overestimation is more typical. The future evaluation based on the scenarios of greenhouse gases RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 was investigated for periods 2021 - 2050 and 2071 - 2100 in comparison with the period 1971 - 2000 as reference. For the simulations of the future climate we can notice an approximately linear increase of temperatures which is most significant in the northeast Europe. For precipitation models predict their increase in the north Europe and decrease in the south Europe.

The rapid growth in wireless data traffic in recent years has placed a great strain on the wireless spectrum and the capacity of current wireless networks. In addition, the makeup of the typical wireless propagation environment is rapidly changing as a greater percentage of data traffic moves indoors, where the coverage of radio signals is poor. This dual fronted assault on coverage and capacity has meant that the tradition cellular model is no longer sustainable, as the gains from constructing new macrocells falls short of the increasing cost. The key emerging concept that can solve the aforementioned challenges is smaller base stations such as micro-, pico- and femto-cells collectively known as small cells. However with this solution come new challenges: while small cells are efficient at improving the indoor coverage and capacity; they compound the lack of spectrum even more and cause high levels of interference. Current channel models are not suited to characterise this interference as the small cells propagation environment is vast different. The result is that overall efficiency of the networks suffers. This thesis presents an investigation into the characteristics of the wireless propagation channel in small cell environments, including measurement, analysis, modelling, validation and extraction of channel data. Two comprehensive data collection campaigns were carried out, one of them employed a RUSK channel sounder and featured dual-polarised MIMO antennas. From the first dataset an empirical path loss model, adapted to typical indoor and outdoor scenarios found in small cell environments, was constructed using regression analysis and was validated using the second dataset. The model shows good accuracy for small cell environments and can be implemented in system level simulations quickly without much requirements.

The purpose of this diploma paper is to present economic models used to evaluate the investment and its implementation in calculating merits of investment in photovoltaic power plant. It consists of theoretical and practical part. Most importantly, the discounted cash flow method is used to evaluate the investment. To calculate the impact of potential adverse scenarios, cash flow streams of each of them were multiplied by their probabilities. Next stage of the paper provides sensitivity analysis for major risk factors. Finally, the breakeven point was determined and presented as a subsidiary case for investment decision.

This thesis deals with the stress testing of banks in Czech Republic and the EU. The first part discusses the financial stability. Attention is paid mainly to different opinions of financial institutions and other experts. The first part includes the financial stability assessment tools of two major financial institutions that deal with financial stability (IMF and ECB). The second part is devoted to one the specific assessment tool for financial stability - stress testing. Stress testing part targets to include the latest theoretical knowledge that are related to stress testing. The third part deals with the stress testing of the banking sector in the Czech Republic and examines the evolution of stress scenarios and methods of stress tests, which are the responsibility of CNB. The fourth part analyzes in detail the stress scenarios and the results of stress tests of the banking sector in the Czech Republic. The last part of the thesis is devoted to the analysis of stress tests of the EU banking sector.

The future of mobility is changing at an exponential rate, as every day passes it moves closer to the goal of complete autonomy, therefore, it is safe to say that the adaptation of self-driving cars in near future is no more a matter of science fiction. Keeping in view the rapid evolution of mobility, this study tries to enlighten and compile the importance of autonomous vehicles in our daily life by highlighting monetary and societal advantages of adaptation. Moreover, it analysis the Austrian expert's opinion on the topic of adaptation of the self- driving cars and business prospects with autonomous vehicles for current businesses. The data on these two questions was collected in a workshop using Delphi method, where experts from varied professional backgrounds participated. But mainly the participants of the controlled group were representatives of public procurement, energy and automobile industry/sector. After a detailed presentation and discussion over the topic, the participants were asked for their views on forth mentioned two questions. Their opinions were recorded and visualized on a custom made graph and further analyzed using the descriptive statistical tool. At the end of the question and answer session a vast majority of experts, which is approximately 80%, thought that there is a good possibility of adaptation of autonomous vehicles in near future. But on the other hand relatively less percentage of experts were confident about the bright future for current businesses in automobile industry; They argued that the current business decorum would change dramatically in a couple of decades and this would be the question of survival of the fittest and smartest.

Les réseaux véhicules (VANET) permettent d’offrir des solutions efficaces et rentables pour diverses applications telles que celles liées à : la sécurité routière, la gestion du trafic routier et les applications multimédia en utilisant les communications sans fil multi-sauts entre les véhicules communicants. Cependant, la mise en place et le maintien de liens multi-sauts fiables dans les environnements VANET posent de réels défis principalement à cause des changements rapides de topologie et des déconnexions fréquentes des liens, ce qui conduit à l'échec et l'inefficacité des protocoles de routage ad hoc traditionnels. Cette thèse propose une nouvelle famille de protocoles de routage (nommés AQRV, AQRV-1 et AQRV-2) adaptés aux caractéristiques intrinsèques des réseaux VANET. Basés sur l’estimation de la qualité de service en temps réel des segments de route (à savoir la probabilité de connectivité, le taux de perte de paquets et le délai), ces trois protocoles de routage reposent sur la sélection dynamique aux intersections du meilleur prochain segment de route pour un routage de bout-en-bout affichant la meilleure QoS (Quality of Service). Cette propriété de sélection opportuniste confère aux protocoles AQRV une bonne adaptation aux scénarios urbains à grande échelle tout en répondant aux contraintes QoS d'un grand nombre d'applications. Afin d'explorer la meilleure route en termes de QoS, la question du routage est vue comme un problème d'optimisation pour lequel un algorithme basé sur l’approche de colonie de fourmis ACO (Ant Colony Optimization) est employé. Par ailleurs, afin de réduire le temps d’exploration des routes et diminuer la charge du trafic de signalisation sur le réseau, une méthode opportuniste est proposée pour explorer efficacement le réseau et rechercher les meilleurs chemins disponibles en termes de QoS locale et globale. En outre, en exploitant des informations sur le trafic, telles que la densité véhiculaire, la vitesse des véhicules et de la longueur des segments de routes, des modèles théoriques sont élaborés pour estimer la qualité de service en temps réel pour deux scénarios distincts : des segments de routes à 1 et à 2 voies. Ces modèles offrent deux principaux avantages: des estimations précises de la qualité des segments de routes et un gain en charge de trafic de signalisation par rapport à la méthode d'estimation traditionnelle reposant sur l’envoi périodique de paquets de signalisation dédiés. Par ailleurs, le concept de TI (Terminal Intersection) est introduit pour mutualiser les routes entre intersections et éviter un routage basé sur nœuds communicants. Ainsi, les différentes paires de communication partagent les informations les plus à jour sur les meilleures routes, ce qui est bénéfique à la réduction de la charge de signalisation et au délai d’établissement des routes. Enfin, pour réduire davantage le trafic de signalisation et diminuer ainsi la congestion du réseau, la technique de transmission à un saut est améliorée, dans le protocole AQRV-2, grâce au concept d'élection distribuée du relayeur qui permet d’éviter la découverte du voisinage par échanges périodiques de paquets Hello. Les performances des protocoles proposés et la pertinence des modèles mathématiques de QoS dérivés ont été évaluées par des séries de simulations implémentant des scénarios réalistes. Une analyse approfondie a permis de montrer la meilleure performance des protocoles de routage développés en termes de signalisation, de délai et de taux de remise de paquets en comparaison aux protocoles de routage de référence. L’étude a également montré l’effet des différents paramètres protocolaires sur les performances globales. / Vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) are able to supply scalable and cost-effective solutions for various applications such as road safety, traffic efficiency and entertainments through multi-hop vehicle-to-vehicle wireless communications. However, developing multi-hop communications in VANET environments is a very challenging problem due to the rapid topology changes and frequent network disconnections, which lead to routing failure or inefficiency in traditional mobile ad hoc routing protocols. This dissertation proposes a novel class of routing protocols (AQRV, AQRV-1 and AQRV-2), which can account for specific characteristics of VANETs. Based on real-time QoS of road segment (namely connectivity probability, packet delivery ratio and delay), these three routing protocols rely on dynamic intersection-based best QoS route selection to cope with the scalability challenge in large-scale urban scenarios and meet varying requirements of a large number of applications. In order to explore the best QoS routing path, we regard the corresponding routing issue as an optimization problem, and propose an ACO-based (Ant Colony Optimization) algorithm to solve it. Besides, to reduce routing exploration time and decrease network overhead, an opportunistic method is proposed to explore the network and search available routing paths in terms of local/global QoS. In addition, by taking benefit from traffic information, such as vehicle density, vehicle speed and road length, we design mathematical models to estimate real-time QoS for 1-lane and 2-lane road scenarios. The main advantages of these models are twofold: provide accurate estimations of road segments’ QoS metrics and decrease the overhead compared with the estimation method by forwarding periodic packets. Furthermore, a TI-based (Terminal Intersection) concept is proposed to make a group of communication pairs share the same back-bone best route, which is beneficial to update latest routing information, decrease overhead and reduce transmission delay. Upon best route identification, data packets forwarding process is initiated including a dynamic road segment selection at intersections based on the updated global QoS, and a simple greedy carry-and-forward scheme to relay data packets between two neighboring intersections. Finally, to further reduce signaling overhead and alleviate network congestion, the one-hop geographical forwarding is improved using a distributed receiver-based election concept and utilized in AQRV-2 routing protocol to avoid periodic Hello packets exchanges. Extensive simulations are implemented to prove the effectiveness of the proposed protocols and the accuracy of the derived mathematical QoS models. A thorough analysis showed the better performance of our routing protocols in terms of overhead, delay and packet delivery ratio compared with reference routing protocols, and investigated the effects of related influencing factors.

Submitted by Fabio Sobreira Campos da Costa (fabio.sobreira@ufpe.br) on 2016-04-15T15:02:00Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) IMPACTO DAS MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS NA DISPONIBILIDADE HÍDRICA NO BIOMA CAATINGA.pdf: 2818779 bytes, checksum: 28004dc087409be6895f9c9b3478017c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-15T15:02:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) IMPACTO DAS MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS NA DISPONIBILIDADE HÍDRICA NO BIOMA CAATINGA.pdf: 2818779 bytes, checksum: 28004dc087409be6895f9c9b3478017c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-10 / A modelagem de clima tornou-se uma ferramenta fundamental na elaboração de cenários climáticos futuros em todo o mundo, auxiliando dessa forma no estudo dos impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre populações e biomas mais vulneráveis aos efeitos do clima, assim como permite avaliar como será o clima futuro contribuindo no monitoramento climático. Deste modo, estudar a modelagem climática e, consequentes cenários climáticos em regiões mais vulneráveis como o semiárido nordestino é de grande importância para auxiliar o planejamento e elaboração de políticas públicas para combate e mitigação dos efeitos das mudanças e variabilidade do clima. Com isso, o presente trabalho visa analisar os impactos das mudanças climáticas na disponibilidade hídrica no bioma Caatinga gerando cenários de mudanças climáticas utilizando o modelo regional ETA – CTPTEC, e aliando as tendências climáticas futuras para o município de Petrolina no Estado de Pernambuco, município este que possui clima semiárido e apresenta um grande potencial agrícola no sertão Pernambucano, além de verificar como esses cenários climáticos futuros podem interferir na vida da população local e na conservação e preservação do bioma Caatinga. As análises dos dados foram feitas por meio de correlação dos valores observados e modelados da precipitação, temperatura do ar, e evapotranspiração. Ainda foi realizada a comparação das médias mensais, apreciação dos balanços hídricos, e elaboração de tendências climáticas até 2040. Os resultados apresentaram correlação de R2 0,516 para os dados de temperatura do ar e fraca correlação com dados de precipitação R2 0,097, além de uma tendência de aumento da temperatura para 2040. No que concerne a precipitação não apresentou tendência. A correlação da evapotranspiração potencial foi R2 0,4916, maior que a correlação da evapotranspiração real R2 0,0881, o que pode ser explicado devido aos erros nos dados de entrada do modelo, como também aos anos avaliados (um ano chuvoso seguido por dois anos secos). Dessa forma não seriam diferentes as correlações do Índice de Área Foliar, onde a correlação com dados de precipitação observada foi de R2 0,3021 e com a precipitação modelada foi de R2 0,1187. Nas comparações das médias estiveram mais próximas para temperatura em torno de 0,2°C e altas diferenças na precipitação atingindo 152,11 mm no ano de 2011, e os balanços hídricos modelados e observados, apresentaram ambos, deficiência hídrica durante praticamente todo o ano, com altas taxas de evapotranspiração com totais anuais em torno de 568,5 mm, o que pode vir a interferir na vegetação de Caatinga e na vida da população local, principalmente no que diz respeito ao abastecimento de água. / Climate modeling became a fundamental tool in the designing of future climate scenarios all over the world, thus being helpful in the analysis of the impacts of climate changes on populations and biomes more vulnerable to the effects of climate, besides that, it also permits evaluate how the future climate will be, thus contributing to the climate monitoring. Therefore, to study climate modeling and consequent climate scenarios in more vulnerable regions like the Northeastern semi-arid is very important to assist the planning and elaboration of public policies to combat and mitigate the effects of change and variability of the climate. Thus, the present work analyzes the impacts of climate change on water availability in the Caatinga biome generating climate change scenarios using the ETA model - CTPTEC, and combining future climate trends for the city of Petrolina in Pernambuco State, a municipality that has a semi-arid climate and that presents a great agricultural potential in the Pernambuco backlands, besides verifying how these future climate scenarios can interfere in the lives of the local population and in the conservation and preservation of the Caatinga scrub. The data analyses were made through the correlation of the observed and modeled values of the precipitation and air temperature, in addition to the correlation and evapotranspiration. Also was performed to compare the monthly average assessment of water balances, besides of the elaboration of climate trends until 2040. The results showed a correlation R2 0.516 for air temperature data and weak correlation with R2 0.097 precipitation data, and a trend Increase temperature to 2040. As regards the precipitation showed no tendency. The correlation of potential evapotranspiration was R2 0.4916, higher than the correlation of actual evapotranspiration R2 0.0881, which might be due to errors in model input data, but also the years evaluated (a rainy year followed by two dry years). Thus would not be different correlations of Leaf Area Index could not be different, where the correlation with observed rainfall data was 0.3021 and R2 with patterned precipitation was R2 0.1187. Mean comparisons were closer to average temperature of 0.2 °C and high differences in precipitation reaching 152.11 mm in 2011, and the modeled and observed water balance showed both water deficit during the entire year with high rates of evapotranspiration with annual total around 568.5 mm, which will interfere in the Caatinga vegetation and life of the local population, especially with regard to water supply.

A variação climática afeta o ecossistema natural, os animais e principalmente as atividades humanas. A produção agrícola apresenta maior risco devido às secas, geadas e principalmente escassez hídrica. O objetivo do trabalho é fazer: o balanço hídrico para o município de Taubaté (1992- 2005), simulações de cenários climáticos futuros (2010 até 2099) e análise destes cenários climáticos futuros na disponibilidade hídrica da região. Utilizou-se o método de Thornthwaite-Mather (1955) no cálculo do balanço hídrico climatológico, tanto para o período atual (1982-2005), quanto para os cenários A2 e B2 do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC). Comparando o período (1992-2005) com (2070-2099), conclui-se que para o cenário A2: a temperatura aumentará em 3,7 C e a precipitação aumentará em 150 mm; no cenário B2 a temperatura aumentará em 2,4 C e a precipitação aumentará em 88 mm; com o aumento de temperatura e precipitação, a evapotranspiração potencial aumentará em 429 mm no cenário A2 e 251 mm no cenário B2, causando um aumento no déficit de 77 mm no cenário A2 e 54 mm no cenário B2, e diminuindo o excedente hídrico em 202 mm no cenário A2 e 109 mm no cenário B2. Se as captações superficiais aumentarem 50%, o município de Taubaté terá problemas de disponibilidade hídrica a partir de 2016 no cenário A2 e 2017 no cenário B2. / Variance affects the entire natural ecosystem such as the agriculture production, animals and, mainly, the anthropogenic activities. Agriculture shows the highest risks due to the dry seasons and the frost events and, mainly, water scarcity. The aim of this present paper is to make a water balance to the Taubaté town (1992-2005), and make a study of future simulations climate scenarios (2010 -2099) with some analysis of how these future climate scenarios will affect the water availableness. We have used the Thornthwaite-Mather method (1995) to estimate the climatologically water balance to Taubaté town. We have used precipitation and temperature data from the year of 1950 until 2099 and that data were adjusted by straight line equation of line regress obtained by graphic of period between 1992 and 2005, and with corrected data, we estimated the potential evapotranspiration rates by Thornthwaite method (1948), and from these future water balances in the scenarios. Comparing the period (1992-2005) with (2070-2099),one concludes that for the A2 scenario: the temperature will increase in 3,7 C and the precipitation will increase in 150 mm; in the B2 scenario the temperature will increase in 2,4 C and the precipitation will increase in 88 mm; with the increase of temperature and precipitation, the potential evapotranspiration will increase in 429 mm in the scenario A2 and 251 mm in the B2 scenario, causing an increase in the deficit of 77 mm in the scenario A2 and 54 mm in the B2 scenario, and diminishing the water excess in 202 mm in the scenario A2 and 109 mm in the B2 scenario. If the superficial caption increases in 50%, the Taubaté town will have water availableness problems from the 2016 in the A2 scenario and from the 2017 in the B2 scenario.

Submitted by Nadir Basilio (nadirsb@uninove.br) on 2018-04-13T18:14:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Cleverton Santos Reche.pdf: 2749690 bytes, checksum: 69d6333ae48031e32c4331a9736c6346 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-13T18:14:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cleverton Santos Reche.pdf: 2749690 bytes, checksum: 69d6333ae48031e32c4331a9736c6346 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-06-28 / Currently, large metropolises seek to improve the quality of life of their population in aspects of urban mobility. Ethanol is a renewable biofuel, of great relevance to Brazil, because it is a clean fuel. Increased consumption compared to other fossil fuels could have a positive impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The research question that guided the study was: what scenarios for ethanol produced in Brazil in 2030? For this, this work adopted the format of independent and sequential studies, totaling 3 studies. Study I was carried out, based on a search in the Web of Science database, with the objective of verifying the construction of the knowledge of the theme "Prospective Scenarios", through the identification of the main publications and authors, based on an analysis Bibliometric. We found 232 articles, which were ranked in descending order of the most cited author for the least cited. This study was developed from an exploratory factorial analysis and five factors were identified. Subsequently, study II was developed with the objective of reviewing and comparing the methodologies of prospective scenarios to identify the most used methods and to compare the methods. The articles were separated into groups of relevant relevance for the theme to later carry out a comparative analysis, providing a view of the practical aspects of scenario planning, such as the selection and the appropriate number of scenarios for validation. Finally, study III was elaborated with the objective of proposing scenarios for the ethanol produced in Brazil in 2030. The data collection was done by sending a questionnaire to specialists on the subject, via the internet, following the guidelines of the Delphi method. Three prospective scenarios were elaborated: a probable scenario, an exploratory scenario and a normative scenario. The scenarios were based on the context of the sugarcane sector, through the uncertainties, opportunities and threats and the analysis of complex environments presented in the study. / Atualmente as grandes metrópoles buscam melhorar a qualidade de vida de sua população em aspectos a mobilidade urbana. O etanol é um biocombustível renovável, de grande relevância para o Brasil, porque é um combustível limpo. O aumento do seu consumo frente a outros combustíveis fósseis poderá ter um impacto positivo na redução de emissões de gases de efeito estufa. A pergunta de pesquisa que norteou o estudo foi: quais seriam os cenários para o etanol produzido no Brasil em 2030? Para tanto, este trabalho adotou o formato de estudos independentes e sequenciais, somando ao todo, 3 estudos. O estudo I foi realizado, a partir de uma busca na base de dados Web of Science, com o objetivo de verificar a construção do conhecimento do tema “Cenários Prospectivos”, por meio da identificação das principais publicações e autores, a partir de uma análise bibliométrica. Foram encontrados 232 artigos, os quais foram classificados por ordem decrescente do autor mais citado para o menos citado. Este estudo foi desenvolvido a partir de uma análise fatorial exploratória e foram identificados cinco fatores. Na sequência, foi desenvolvido o estudo II com o objetivo de revisar e comparar as metodologias de cenários prospectivos para identificar os métodos mais utilizados e realizar a comparação entre os métodos. Os artigos foram separados em grupos de relevância pelo tema para, posteriormente, realizar uma análise comparativa, fornecendo uma visão dos aspectos práticos do planejamento de cenários, como a seleção e o número apropriado de cenários para validação. Por fim, foi elaborado o estudo III com o objetivo de propor cenários para o etanol produzido no Brasil em 2030. A coleta dos dados foi a partir do envio de um questionário a especialistas sobre o tema, via internet, seguindo as diretrizes do método Delphi. Foram elaborados 3 cenários prospectivos: um cenário provável, um cenário exploratório e um cenário normativo. Os cenários tiveram como base o contexto do setor sucroenergético, por meio das incertezas, oportunidades e ameaças e a análise de ambientes complexos apresentados no estudo.