Supervisor: Professor J. H. G. Smith The economic accessibility of the forest depends on the value of forest products in the market place and the total of all costs involved in getting them there. Where these costs equal the value of the products, the margin of economic operation occurs. At any point in time, a certain set of technological, social, and economic conditions prevail, which serves to define this boundary. However, it is not always clear just what the effect on the economic margin will be if a change in any of these factors takes place. This in turn increases the difficulty experienced by those who seek to plan for the most efficient and beneficial long term use of the forest, since neither the physical amount nor the monetary value of the forest resource can be adequately determined in economic terms. This thesis has examined the nature of technological change in the logging sector of the forest industry, taking particular notice of both the rate of change and of its effect upon economic accessibility of the forest. The resulting need for more factual information for resource planning was discussed, with the emphasis being placed upon the area of logging costs. A mathematical model of the highlead logging system, suitable for simulation on electronic computers, was developed to illustrate the type of information required, and how it may be used in the determination of forest accessibility. Also, economic analysis was applied to the problem of logging layout and road spacing, where it was shown that the value of the marginal return from each input activity must be equal for the optimum, or least cost condition, to exist. The usefulness of the cost analysis techniques was demonstrated in an example comparing the performance of the highlead and skyline logging systems on a standardized setting. This demonstrated that the latter system was competitive at a road construction cost of about $6 per lineal foot and over, while the former was the more economical below that value. Also, it brought out the fact that skyline systems can contribute in the future to an extension of the margin of operations in coastal British Columbia, and especially so if various technical improvements can be anticipated. A method for combining inventory data, logging productivity and cost relationships, and log market prices through the use of logging models was described, using an example from the University of British Columbia Research Forest. It was observed that refinements of this method could lead to a satisfactorily accurate and flexible definition of the economically accessible timber resource. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate

Before economic development can take place in a country, there must be a minimal amount of social and economic infrastructure. Good transportation is regarded as one of the prerequisites to rapid economic growth. To be effective, however, it must be related to needs of the country concerned. In the early development of Tanzania, transportation facilities were built mostly for strategic and administrative purposes. Economic motives were secondary, and paramount only in cases where there was hope for immediate returns, like the exploitation of a new mine. The only other economic reason was to facilitate trade, in raw materials and manufactured goods 'between the metropolitan power, other industrialized countries, and Tanganyika. It was also believed that the provision of railways would lead to rapid economic development. However, the provision of railways in the hope that they would generate economic growth was unsuccessful. Instead, railways became a burden to the country because they operated at a loss and had to be subsidized. At the same time, the loans borrowed to build the railways had to be amortized at an annual rate of between 4-4-1/2%. Thus, the railways proved too costly a mode for initiating economic growth. The "cost of capital" used to build railways was totally beyond the means of the country in its early stages of economic growth. It crippled the financial and capital availability for economic development in general. Not only had the country limited capital for development, but other disadvantages, such as being a Mandate Territory, which resulted in further flight of capital. Thus, the total amount of capital used to repay the railway debt before 1948, diverted capital which should have been invested in other sectors of the economy to establish a base for future development . It was at this stage that roads came to be preferred as a less costly mode than railways for opening up new areas for development. The policy adopted was to provide a "country-wide Low-Cost" road system. First, this policy placed too much emphasis on building trunk roads at the expense of feeder roads. Second, it overlooked the geographical characteristics of the country. Finally, the roads which were built were of too low a standard. The net result was the road system did not provide effective links to the rural areas, the mainstay of the population and economy of the country. Also, areas with high growth potential had insufficient number of roads, while less prosperous areas were oversupplied with them. But, even more so, the roads deteriorated very fast with the rapid increase in volume of heavy vehicles and traffic. Consequently, maintenance costs rose very rapidly, calling for increased expenditure. This limited the amount of money which could be spent in further road construction, such as the building of rural feeder roads. Increased maintenance costs diverted capital resources from other sectors of the economy, thereby inhibiting balanced economic growth. In contrast, other factors, though accounting for less capital investment, have been very crucial in the economic growth of the country. The most important factor has been world prices for export crops, especially that of sisal. This crop became important after the fall of rubber prices at the beginning of this century, and not with the building of the railways to which it is usually attributed. Since then, fluctuation in the world price of sisal has affected the revenue of the country and levels of expenditure on new capital works. During the Korean boom, when prices for this crop were favourable, it provided sufficient revenue and encouraged increased expenditure in capital works, in which road development ranked very high. Other factors which accounted for a stable growth include the centralization of marketing of cash crops through cooperatives and marketing boards. The establishment of these institutions made possible the payment of high prices during years of unfavourable world prices from funds accumulated when world prices were good. This has encouraged increased agricultural production, resulting in a rise of income to the farmers and hence demand for consumer items, especially imports. These institutions also undertake to process, auction, and ship the crops of the farmers to markets overseas, in return for a minimal charge on the farmers' income. This has enabled the subsistence farmer to produce his crops at a much more economical basis than if he was on his own. Despite deficiencies in the transportation system, the economy of the country grew. But the levels of growth achieved have remained low because of inadequacies in other sectors of the economy. In agriculture, the continued use of primitive methods of production has been the major limiting factor in increased levels of production. The failure to take cognizance of these problems in the past has limited the effectiveness of transportation on economic development and has resulted in an unbalanced growth. The impact of transportation has also been limited because it depended on imports for equipment and other essentials. A local transport industry, as in the case of the developed countries, is still far from being established. This has been confined to railway repair shops, garages and gas stations. The above are the findings from the examination of the thesis of this study, in that: Rail and Road transportation as initially developed, and despite increased investment in the facilities of these two modes, was not as conducive to economic development as compared to other factors accounting for levels of economic growth achieved. In view of this, and of limited capital resources for development, increased investment and expenditure on rail and road transportation diverted scarce resources from other essential sectors of the economy, such as agriculture. Also, because the tangible benefits from rail and road transportation were less than its costs, the opportunity cost of invested capital was high. This was the case for capital invested, in railways before 1948, and in roads thereafter. This study also points to the fact that the role transportation can play in the economic development of a developing country is different from that experienced in the developed countries. In addition, in the light of growth based on planned development, a sectorial approach to transportation is not enough. Transportation has to be evaluated in terms of how it can assist in rapid fulfilment of the goals of the Five Year Plan. In making decisions on future investments in the economy, priority should be given to those sectors of the economy which are central in enabling the achievement of goals of the Five Year Plan. Within the transport sector, decisions on further investments should be based on a proper evaluation of transport needs of the country. It should also be guided by the role transportation has played in the past to assist rapid growth. For example, a closer examination and assessment of past performances of rail and roads in the development of the country will provide guidelines for a transportation system to service increased production. It will also enable the planner to discover where the deficiency lies in the economy as a whole. The inadequacy of a transportation system may be due to lack of other facilities, such as storage, or a processing plant as has been the case in some parts of Tanzania. In future, organization of transport, especially rail and road, should be pur-sued through policies which will facilitate coordination and integration of the two modes. Another immediate need is a transportation plan to assist in developing a well balanced transport system. In view of the formation of the East African Community, this should be done both at National (micro) and Regional (macro) levels. A National Transport Board should be formed to carry out the above functions. The issue of whether to develop rail or road as the most suitable mode for further development should also be properly evaluated. It would appear, however, that both modes have a role to play because of their complementary nature, the geographical characteristic of the country, and in assisting the formation of a Regional Economic Group including Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Ruanda, Urundi, Zambia, Somalia and Ethiopa. Transportation should also be made an integral part of the "Ujamaa Village" planning process. Finally, there should be continuing research in appraising transportation problems in developing countries, so as to establish a theory for transport research and development. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Community and Regional Planning (SCARP), School of / Graduate

The Western Canadian Trucking Industry has been undergoing much acquisition activity since 1950. Because of the growing importance of this, it is essential that the effects on the performance of trucking firms be fully understood. This study is meant to be an initial inquiry to document, and to identify the factors that have been conducive to this activity in the Western Canadian Trucking Industry principally for the time period 1950-1968. This investigation was principally conducted through the interview technique. The sample of firms used in this study, although not all inclusive, was generally agreed among those interviewed to consist of all the major trucking firms active in acquisition activity in the Western Canadian Trucking Industry. Many factors are isolated as being conducive to this activity. These factors were identified principally from current literature on the merger field generally. The relative importance of these factors is discussed. This study found that many of the acquisitions that have taken place since 1950 were principally to extend the route authority and commodity base of operations. These are of a market-oriented type generally typified by end-to-end acquisitions designed to offer better services. Most consist of larger firms acquiring smaller trucking firms, usually ones in financial difficulty. In almost all cases, the most valuable asset of the acquired firm has been the route authority. In practical terms, it was found that the only expedient way for a trucking firm to expand was to purchase additional existing route authorities, since an applicant for a new route authority must prove public convenience and necessity to the regulators. The environmental factors isolated in this study have been conducive to acquisition activity. This activity occurred during periods of economic expansion when business expectations were generally high and many firms were available for sale after incurring operating difficulty during the preceeding recession. The legal factor was also found to be strongly conducive to this activity. This was attributed to the regulatory practices of restricting entry and relatively easy approval of route authority transfers. Much of the acquisition activity was attributed to the exploitable situations that prevailed after World War II, the fortuitous railway strike of 1950 and completion of the Trans-Canada Highway. It was also found that many industry factors were conducive to the acquisition activity. The technological factor suggests that larger firms have been desirable to provide the managerial and capital base necessary to keep a firm competitive. The diversification factor suggests that many trucking firms diversified their geographic and commodity base to stabilize earnings, balance head and back hauls, and offer better service in hopes of gaining more traffic. The industry is still in the early stage of the industry life cycle with a few larger, financially more stable firms surviving the forces of competition. This factor suggests that acquisition activity should tend to slow down as the opportunities for expansion and acquisition become less. Many small trucking firms, with limited management ability, either went bankrupt or recognized the need for the many specialized abilities necessary for survival and have tended to be acquired as a result. The financial factor tended to be conducive to the acquisition activity as well. Many small trucking firms have run into a squeeze where they have not been able to properly finance equipment and expansion and have tended to be acquired or go bankrupt. The sympathetic factor, where one carrier sees another expand services through route authority acquisition and hastens to do likewise, can also be viewed as being conducive to this activity. Economies of scale were found to have little effect on the acquisition activity. Although evidence shows that there are no economies of scale of firm size, it was suggested in the discussion that there may be economies of density, management, accounting, advertising and finance that tend to be conducive to acquisition activity. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

This study has two major concerns: the identification of mode choice determinants, and the formulation of a mode choice model which accounts for the determinants defined. First, the concepts underlying users' behaviour are expounded. These concepts relate users' mode choice to several influences, the perceived attributes of the transportation system, his socio-economic characteristics, and sensitivity toward modal attributes. In this study, the latter is hypothesized to be a function of the user's time budget and other indications of his lifestyle. Thus, an individual may attach a great significance to savings in travel time as a result of his engagement in activities which put considerable demand upon his time, although most members of his income group may be sensitive primarily to the travel cost attribute. User's lifestyle may therefore create divergent sensitivities within the same socio-economic group. Previous research findings support the hypothesis that variations in these sensitivities are independent from the. socio-economic characteristics. The study's model makes use of this concept. The model is composed of two parts: the first is concerned with the grouping of all users according to their sensitivities toward attributes of the mode choice situation, and subsequently the calibration of a stochastic function to explain users' choices in each group. The second part of the model relates the user's time, age and occupation (as indications of some aspects of his lifestyle) to these sensitivity, which is an additional step to substantiate the rationale of the model and its predictive quality. The information to be fed into the calibration procedure is to be collected in a questionnaire survey on users' behaviour under choice conditions. The model is therefore a behavioural one; its basic function is to explain the predict users' choices. This approach is different, for example, from the propensity model approach, where users' preferences, rather than behaviour, are the basis for calibration. The model proposed in this study can be applied as a planning tool to demonstrate the impact of various transportation policies on users' choices. The model is capable of providing estimates of the number of users that would be attracted to public transit as a result of, for example, introducing a new transit system, improving the existing level of service, increasing parking charges or gasoline prices. Other applications include the assessment of the impact of introducing novel transportation modes on ridership under the assumption that their attributes are comparable to the existing ones. Also, since the model accounts for certain aspects of the individual's lifestyle, it is possible to link changes in the latter to his mode choice. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Community and Regional Planning (SCARP), School of / Graduate

M.Ing. (Transportation Engineering) / Please refer to full text to view abstract

The general objective of this work is to construct, test and apply a method of estimating a matrix of passenger trips between origins and destinations (0-D) from existing data and without recourse to a survey. This objective is attained in five steps. First, it is shown that existing 0-D survey methods are expensive, cumbersome and unreliable. Then, three families of models are hypothesized to estimate the 0-D matrix from the traffic volumes observed on highway links; these are nonlinear, linear and sequential models. The third step selects the nonlinear class of models, which are estimated and systematically tested on a variety of data, including data for Canada as a whole. Here it is shown that these estimates give good approximations of the 0-D matrix together with reasonable parameters. Given the construction of the first intercity car and bus 0-D matrices for Canada, a fourth step uses these data to estimate what seems to be the first complete intercity multimodal passenger travel demand model for the entire country. This model is shown to be a special case of a more general and "flexible" model, which is in turn estimated and analysed from several points of view. In the empirical parts of the work, likelihood ratio tests are used throughout and families of models are hierarchically nested, leading to a natural framework for the evaluation of successive restrictions on the most general formulations. Efficient algorithms are developed which permit the estimation of large and complex models on extensive datasets. / Arts, Faculty of / Geography, Department of / Graduate

The research was aimed at experimentally investigating the relationship between public transport service quality and customer satisfaction in order to inform the specification of customer satisfaction in the design of public transport service contracts. This is important for helping understand how public transport services, and associated contracts, can be systematically adapted to meet the ever-changing needs of customers, potentially leading to increased customer satisfaction or minimisation of dissatisfaction, especially where public transport is explicitly planned to serve as a travel demand management instrument. Furthermore, while the specification of service quality standards is a common practice in public transport contracts, the relationship between the specifications and customer satisfaction is often methodologically unclear. The concept of customer satisfaction both qualitatively and quantitatively, including associated analytical models, was reviewed, which in turn informed the design, execution and interpretation of the empirical component of the investigation. The empirical component of the research was limited to a strategically important market segment comprising commuters who have access to personal cars but choose or are willing to use public transport. Based on the results of the qualitative and quantitative surveys, the research brought to light an improved understanding of this market segment, and benchmarked these against literature findings. Many of the theories in service research were confirmed, key among them being the important role of negative critical incidents in forming decisions, and also the importance of regarding a service as a package of attributes and not individual attributes. In the particular case of public transport, the entire journey comprises a service, and not just the in-vehicle component. It was also evident that even within this niche market segment, there are diverse needs, requirements and expectations of a public transport service, sometimes expressed incoherently. The quantitative component of the research confirmed aspects of the qualitative study. Through a conjoint analysis modelling framework it was shown that, due to non-linear effect on customer satisfaction, not only attribute but attribute levels are critically important in customer service evaluations. In particular, the Kano model effects within customer satisfaction responses were confirmed. It was shown that once a service design has been decided upon, existing and prospective customers are able to consistently evaluate its performance. Existing customers tend to be more tolerant of less than ideal service delivery than prospective customers. Also, customers who have been using the service for a relatively limited period tend to have satisfaction thresholds higher than those who have been using the service for prolonged periods. A logit mode choice model that uses customer satisfaction as input was estimated and showed that retention of existing customers and attraction of new customers are strongly associated with satisfaction. The public transport subsidy implications of this behaviour within the South African context were shown, using subsidised bus services as a case study. Based on the findings of the research, practical recommendations relating to the incorporation of customer satisfaction, and the manner of doing so, in public transport contracts were made. Key among these are: (i) The need to create, for service evaluation reference purposes, an agreed to service definition formulated by a tripartite arrangement comprising prospective operators, contracting authorities and prospective customers; (ii) Making contract provisions in respect of budgeting for service quality functions such as marketing and monitoring that is explicitly linked to service context, and (iii) Calibrating service performance monitoring instruments on the basis of empirical relationship between customer satisfaction and retention or attraction probabilities. This research contributes to the state of knowledge in three ways: (i) It empirically informs the design of public transport contracts through linkage with the concept of travel demand management where the current approaches emphasise contractor-authority relationship; (ii) The study brings together various disciplines, particularly service research and transportation sciences, to illustrate how they can be fused for social welfare benefits even for conventionally inert documents such as contracts, and (iii) It provides methodological insights and a method, based on a conjoint experiment and Kano model theory, for the treatment of service attributes in public transport service design, through which it was shown that public transport service attributes can be functionally classified on the basis of customer needs. This might in turn be helpful in setting priorities for service improvements and appropriate benchmarks. / Thesis (PhD) - University of Pretoria, 2015. / Civil Engineering / PhD / Unrestricted

This thesis introduces and studies new classes of heterogeneous vehicle routing problems with or without location and pollution considerations. It develops powerful evolutionary and adaptive large neighborhood search based metaheuristics capable of solving a wide variety of such problems with suitable enhancements, and provides several important managerial insights. It is structured into five main chapters. After the introduction presented in Chapter 1, Chapter 2 classifies and reviews the relevant literature on heterogeneous vehicle routing problems, and presents a comparative analysis of the available metaheuristic algorithms for these problems. Chapter 3 describes a hybrid evolutionary algorithm for four variants of heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing problems with time windows. The algorithm successfully combines several metaheuristics and introduces a number of new advanced efficient procedures. Extensive computational experiments on benchmark instances show that the algorithm is highly competitive with state-of-the art methods for the three variants. New benchmark results on the fourth problem are also presented. In Chapter 4, the thesis introduces the eet size and mix location-routing problem with time windows (FSMLRPTW) which extends the classical location-routing problem by considering a heterogeneous fleet and time windows. The main objective of the FSMLRPTW is to minimize the sum of depot cost, vehicle fixed cost and routing cost. The thesis presents integer programming formulations for the FSMLRPTW, along with a family of valid inequalities and an algorithm based on adaptation of the hybrid evolutionary metaheuristic. The strengths of the formulations are evaluated with respect to their ability to yield optimal solutions. Extensive computational experiments on new benchmark instances show that the algorithm is highly effective. Chapter 5 introduces the fleet size and mix pollution-routing problem (FSMPRP) which extends the previously studied pollution-routing problem (PRP) by considering a heterogeneous vehicle fleet. The main objective is to minimize the sum of vehicle fixed costs and routing cost, where the latter can be defined with respect to the cost of fuel and CO2 emissions, and driver cost. An adaptation of the hybrid evolutionary algorithm is successfully applied to a large pool of realistic PRP and FSMPRP benchmark instances, where new best solutions are obtained for the former. Several analyses are conducted to shed light on the trade-offs between various performance indicators. The benefit of using a heterogeneous fleet over a homogeneous one is demonstrated. In Chapter 6, the thesis investigates the combined impact of depot location, fleet composition and routing decisions on vehicle emissions in urban freight distribution characterized by several speed limits, where goods need to be delivered from a depot to customers located in different speed zones. To solve the problem, an adaptive large neighborhood search algorithm is successfully applied to a large pool of new benchmark instances. Extensive analyses are conducted to quantify the effect of various problem parameters, such as depot cost and location, customer distribution and fleet composition on key performance indicators, including fuel consumption, emissions and operational costs. The results illustrate the benefits of locating depots located in suburban areas rather than in the city centre and of using a heterogeneous fleet over a homogeneous one. The conclusions, presented in Chapter 7, summarize the results of the thesis, provide limitations of this work, as well as future research directions.

About twenty percent of the U.S. National Highway System is under construction during the peak summer roadwork season. Fifty percent of all highway congestion is attributed to nonrecurring conditions and work zones are estimated to account for nearly twenty four percent of nonrecurring delay. Work zones account for two percent of roadway crashes and more than 1,000 fatalities per year. The major question on which this research focuses is: "How do work zone delineation strategies, intelligent transportation systems (ITS) technologies, and driver behavior impact traffic flow and crash potential in and around work zones?" To address this question effectively, one might consider assessing actual traffic situations under local conditions with the aid of a microscopic simulation model. Such simulation tools could be useful to individuals designing work zone deployment plans, developing work zone traffic management concepts, deciding on the use of ITS applications in work zones, and formulating alternate route strategies. In addition, such tools may improve the ability to visualize the impact of delineation and dynamic merge guidance strategies as well as to quantitatively assess the impact on delay and the occurrence of high crash potential situations in and around work zone areas. The underlying objective of this research is to improve the way researchers and practitioners are able to explain and predict traffic conditions and driver behavior as they are impacted by work zone strategies including variable message signs, static signage, tapers, arrow boards, and positive separation. Central to this research was the formulation of an algorithm that improves upon traditional car following theory by incorporating factors such as driver familiarity, adaptability, aggression, and accommodation to the changing road conditions found in work zones. The use of these concepts incorporates two notions: (1) drivers must manage interaction with both the roadway and other drivers; and (2) drivers exhibit varying preferences for early or late merges based on their willingness to respond to upcoming lane restrictions and their inclination to be passive or aggressive in forced merge situations.

Congestion is a world-wide problem in transportation. One major reason is random interruptions. The traffic network is inherently stochastic, and strong dependencies exist among traffic quantities, e.g., travel time, traffic speed, link volume. Information in stochastic networks can help with adaptive routing in terms of minimizing expected travel time or disutility. Routing in such networks is different from that in deterministic networks or when stochastic dependencies are not taken into account. This dissertation addresses the optimal routing problems, including the optimal a priori path problem and the optimal adaptive routing problem with different information scenarios, in stochastic and time-dependent networks with explicit consideration of the correlations between link travel time random variables. There are a number of studies in the literature addressing the optimal routing problems, but most of them ignore the correlations between link travel times. The consideration of the correlations makes the problem studied in this dissertation difficult, both conceptually and computationally. The optimal path finding problem in such networks is different from that in stochastic and time-dependent networks with no consideration of the correlations. This dissertation firstly provides an empirical study of the correlations between random link travel times and also verifies the importance of the consideration of the spatial and temporal correlations in estimating trip travel time and its reliability. It then shows that Bellman's principle of optimality or non-dominance is not valid due to the time-dependency and the correlations. A new property termed purity is introduced and an exact label-correcting algorithm is designed to solve the problem. With the fast advance of telecommunication technologies, real-time traffic information will soon become an integral part of travelers' route choice decision making. The study of optimal adaptive routing problems is thus timely and of great value. This dissertation studies the problems with a wide variety of information scenarios, including delayed global information, real-time local information, pre-trip global information, no online information, and trajectory information. It is shown that, for the first four partial information scenarios, Bellman's principle of optimality does not hold. A heuristic algorithm is developed and employed based on a set of necessary conditions for optimality. The same algorithm is showed to be exact for the perfect online information scenario. For optimal adaptive routing problem with trajectory information, this dissertation proves that, if the routing policy is defined in a similar way to other four information scenarios, i.e., the trajectory information is included in the state variable, Bellman's principle of optimality is valid. However, this definition results in a prohibitively large number of the states and the computation can hardly be carried out. The dissertation provides a recursive definition for the trajectory-adaptive routing policy, for which the information is not included in the state variable. In this way, the number of states is small, but Bellman's principle of optimality or non-dominance is invalid for a similar reason as in the optimal path problem. Again purity is introduced to the trajectory-adaptive routing policy and an exact algorithm is designed based on the concept of decreasing order of time.