As emissões globais de gases do efeito estufa (GEE) devido a ações do ser humano tem levado a um aumento na temperatura média da superfície terrestre de 0,55oC, e mudanças climáticas como aumento de eventos climáticos extremos, elevação dos níveis dos oceanos, e mudanças nos regimes pluviométricos são alguns exemplos das possíveis implicações deste aquecimento. O carbono orgânico do solo (COS) é o principal reservatório terrestre de C, contendo mais que o dobro do C da atmosfera, portanto, dependendo do manejo os solos podem se transformar em importantes fontes ou drenos de C atmosférico, influenciando significativamente os efeitos do aquecimento global. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi estimar as mudanças nos estoques do COS devido às mudanças no uso da terra e sistemas de manejo nos estados de Rondônia e Mato Grosso entre 1970 e 1985 e 1985 a 2002 utilizando dados específicos da região; e realizar a análise de incerteza destas estimativas mediante o método de Monte Carlo. Para alcançar o objetivo principal, a presente pesquisa foi composta das seguintes etapas: i) cálculo dos estoques do COS sob vegetação nativa (carbono de referência); ii) obtenção dos dados (áreas) das principais categorias de uso da terra nos estados de Rondônia e Mato Grosso para os anos de 1970, 1985 e 2002, a partir da combinação de técnicas de sensoriamento remoto, dados dos censos agropecuários, e informações de especialistas do setor agropecuário; iii) desenvolvimento dos fatores de emissão específicos para os principais sistemas de manejo da região de estudo utilizando um modelo linear misto; iv) e a etapa final que consistiu em combinar as etapas anteriores para se estimar as mudanças nos estoques de COS, e realizar a análise das incertezas associadas. Sucintamente, foram derivados fatores de emissão para as pastagens degradadas (0,91 ± 0,14), típicas em Latossolos (0,99 ± 0,08), típicas nos demais tipos de solos (1,24 ± 0,07), e pastagens melhoradas em Latossolos (1,19 ± 0,07), todos os fatores representam a comparação entre as pastagens manejadas e a vegetação nativa. Nos sistemas agrícolas foi possível derivar fatores de emissão para sistemas de plantio direto (PD) em áreas de Cerrado (1,08 ± 0,06), PD em áreas de floresta Amazônica e Cerradão (1,01 ± 0,17), cultivo convencional (CC) (0,94 ± 0,04) e culturas perenes (0,98 ± 0,14), sendo que o fator para o CC foi comparado aos dados de PD, enquanto que os demais fatores foram obtidos a partir da comparação com os estoques sob vegetações nativas. Quanto às emissões de COS, foi encontrado que usando o método de Monte Carlo com 20000 simulações no período de 1970 a 1985, os solos minerais apresentaram uma perda de C com fluxos anuais de 4,28 e 1,14 Tg C ano-1, para Mato Grosso e Rondônia, respectivamente, e com 95% de intervalo de confiança as incertezas foram de ± 41,5 e 21,9%, respectivamente. No segundo período, as emissões foram de 2,86 e 0,91 Tg C ano-1, com incertezas de ± 40,1 e 33,8%, respectivamente, para Mato Grosso e Rondônia. Quanto às fontes de incerteza, o carbono de referência, a opinião dos especialistas sobre as condições das pastagens e os fatores de emissão para pastagens típicas e degradadas foram às variáveis responsáveis por mais de 90% das incertezas das estimativas das emissões de C do solo. / Global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) due to human beings actions have led to an increase in average temperature of the earth of 0,55oC, and climate changes such as increases of the extreme weather events, sea level rise and precipitation changes are some examples of the possible implications of this global warming. Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest terrestrial organic carbon pool, containing more than the double of the atmospheric C; therefore, depending on the management the soils can became a source or a sink for the atmospheric C, influencing the effects of global warming. The objective of this research was to estimate the changes in SOC stocks due to the land-use and management systems in the states of Rondônia and Mato Grosso from 1970 to 1985 and from 1985 to 2002 using regional specific data, and perform the uncertainty analysis of these estimates through the Monte Carlo method. To achieve the main objective, this research was composed by the following steps: i) the estimate of the SOC stocks under native vegetation (reference carbon), ii) obtain data (areas) of the main land-use categories in the states of Rondônia and Mato Grosso for the years 1970, 1985 and 2002, from a combination of remote sensing, agricultural census data, and information from experts of the agricultural sector, iii) to derive the emission factors specific to the major management systems in the region of study using a linear-mixed model; iv) the final step was to combine the above steps to estimate the changes in SOC stocks, and carry out the uncertainty analysis associated with them. Briefly, emission factors were derived to the degraded grasslands (0.91 ± 0.14), typical in Oxisols (0.99 ± 0.08), typical in other soil types (1.24 ± 0.07), and improved grasslands in Oxisols (1.19 ± 0.07), all factors represent the comparison between managed pastures and native vegetation. In agricultural systems could be derived emission factors for no tillage (NT) systems in the Cerrado areas (1.08 ± 0.06), NT in Amazon Forest and Cerradão areas (1.01 ± 0.17), conventional tillage (CT) (0.94 ± 0.04), and perennial crops (0.98 ± 0.14). However, the CT factor was obtained from the comparison with NT data, while the other factors were compared to SOC stocks under the native vegetation. Using the Monte Carlo approach with 20000 simulations it was estimated the changes in the SOC stocks and the uncertainties associated to them. In the period from 1970 to 1985, mineral soils had a loss of C with annual fluxes of 4.28 and 1.14 Tg C yr-1, in Mato Grosso and Rondônia, respectively, and with a 95% confidence interval the uncertainties were of ± 41.5 and 21.9% respectively. In the second period, emissions were of 2.86 and 0.91 Tg C yr-1, with uncertainty of ± 40.1 and 33.8%, respectively, in Mato Grosso and Rondônia. In terms of the sources of uncertainty, the reference carbon, the experts opinions about the grasslands, and the emission factors for typical and degraded grassland were the variables responsible for more than 90% of the uncertainties in the SOC emissions estimates.

Overheating in buildings is predicted to increase as a result of a warming climate and urbanisation in most cities. With regards to responding to this challenge, decision makers ranging from_ design teams, local authorities, building users, national programs and market innovators; and during the different stages of a building’s service life, want to know a few pertinent matters: What space characteristics and buildings are at a higher risk and by how much?; What are the tradeoffs between alternative design and/or user-based actions?; What are the likely or possible consequences of their decisions?; What is the impact of climate change to indoor overheating?; among other decision support questions. However, such decision appraisal information still remains buried and dispersed in existing simulation models, and empirical studies, and not yet been clearly articulated in any existing study or model. Especially decision support information articulated in a way that gives each decision maker maximum capacity to anticipate and respond to thermal discomfort in different spaces and through the lifetime of a building. There is a need for an integrated and systematic means of building adaptation decision-support, which provides analytical leverage to these listed decision makers. A means that: 1) assimilates a range of indoor thermal comfort's causal and solution space processes; 2) reveals and enhances the exploration of the space and time-dependent patterns created by the dynamics of the indoor overheating phenomenon through time; and one that 3) imparts insight into decision strategy and its synthesis across multiple decision makers. This study recognises the lack of an overarching framework attending to the listed concerns. Therefore, the key aim of this thesis is to develop and test a building adaptation decision-support framework, which extends the scope of existing frameworks and indoor overheating risk models to facilitate trans-sectional evaluations that reveal temporal decision strategies. The generic framework frames a multi-method analysis aiming to underpin decision appraisal for different spaces over a 50 to 100-year time horizon. It constitutes an underlying architecture that engages the dimensions of decision support information generation, information structuring, its exploration and dissemination, to ease in drawing decision strategy flexibly and transparently. The multi-method framework brings together: 1) Systems thinking methods to a) facilitate the systematic exposure of the elements that shape indoor overheating risk, and b) reveal the processes that shape multi-stakeholder decision-making response over time; 2) The use of normative, predictive and exploratory building scenarios to a) examine the overheating phenomenon over time, and b) as a lens through which to explore the micro-dynamics brought about by aspects of heterogeneity and uncertainty; and 3) The application of both computational and optimization techniques to appraise potential routes towards indoor thermal comfort over an extended time scale by a) tracking shifts in frequency, intensity and distribution of indoor overheating vulnerability by causal elements over time and space; and b) tracking shifting optima of the heat mitigation solution space, with respect to time, climate futures, heterogeneity of spaces, and due to thermal comfort assumptions. The framework’s potential has been demonstrated through its application to office buildings in Nairobi.

L’analyse de cycle de vie des bâtiments (ACV) permet d’évaluer les impacts environnementaux associés à une construction sur l’ensemble de son cycle de vie mais aussi d’aider à choisir les variantes les plus durables dans une démarche d’écoconception. De nombreuses sources d’incertitudes pèsent sur la modélisation environnementale des bâtiments. L’objectif de cette thèse est de proposer une méthodologie pour les prendre en compte et ainsi progresser vers une fiabilisation de l’ACV des bâtiments. Les éléments du modèle qui ont le plus d’influence sur les résultats, et qu’il serait utile de connaître de manière plus précise sont identifiés à l’aide de méthodes d’analyse de sensibilité (AS). Les temps de calcul peuvent être longs pour ces méthodes alors qu’en conception, un temps limité est généralement consacré aux études d’ACV des bâtiments. Plusieurs AS sont comparées en termes de compromis temps de calcul / précision. L’effet des incertitudes sur le choix d’une variante bâtie est étudié en appliquant une méthodologie intégrant des AS et des analyses d’incertitude (AI) adaptées au contexte de comparaison de variantes. Cela permet de rechercher des améliorations d’un projet à un niveau de confiance donné en se concentrant sur les indicateurs environnementaux pour lesquels le choix d’une variante affecte significativement les résultats. La démarche de quantification des incertitudes proposée peut être appliquée au cycle de vie complet de bâtiment et prendre en compte des sources d’incertitudes variées rencontrées en ACV des bâtiments. Les méthodes employées ont été intégrées à une plateforme d’écoconception intégrant des outils de simulation énergétique dynamique (SED) et d’ACV. / Building life cycle assessment (LCA) is a tool used to assess the environmental impact of a construction over its entire life cycle, and to help choosing the most sustainable building alternative in an ecodesign context. Many uncertainty sources arise in the environmental modelling of buildings. The aim of this thesis is to propose a methodology to take them into account and to progress towards more reliable building LCA tools. Model inputs and parameters having the most influence on the results and that should be more precisely known were identified using sensitivity analysis (SA) methods. The calculation time required for the application of these methods may be long, whereas a limited time is generally available to conduct a building LCA study. Several SA methods were therefore compared in terms of a calculation time / precision compromise. The effect of uncertainties on the choice of a built alternative was studied using SA and uncertainty analysis (UA) that are suitable in the context of variants comparison. In that way, the environmental improvements of a project are chosen at a given level of confidence and focusing on the environmental indicators for which the choice of an alternative affects the results significantly. The proposed uncertainty quantification process is applicable to the whole building life cycle and makes it possible to take into account various uncertainty sources arising in building LCA. The used methods were integrated into an ecodesign platform consisting in a dynamic building energy simulation (DBES) and an LCA tool.

As emissões globais de gases do efeito estufa (GEE) devido a ações do ser humano tem levado a um aumento na temperatura média da superfície terrestre de 0,55oC, e mudanças climáticas como aumento de eventos climáticos extremos, elevação dos níveis dos oceanos, e mudanças nos regimes pluviométricos são alguns exemplos das possíveis implicações deste aquecimento. O carbono orgânico do solo (COS) é o principal reservatório terrestre de C, contendo mais que o dobro do C da atmosfera, portanto, dependendo do manejo os solos podem se transformar em importantes fontes ou drenos de C atmosférico, influenciando significativamente os efeitos do aquecimento global. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi estimar as mudanças nos estoques do COS devido às mudanças no uso da terra e sistemas de manejo nos estados de Rondônia e Mato Grosso entre 1970 e 1985 e 1985 a 2002 utilizando dados específicos da região; e realizar a análise de incerteza destas estimativas mediante o método de Monte Carlo. Para alcançar o objetivo principal, a presente pesquisa foi composta das seguintes etapas: i) cálculo dos estoques do COS sob vegetação nativa (carbono de referência); ii) obtenção dos dados (áreas) das principais categorias de uso da terra nos estados de Rondônia e Mato Grosso para os anos de 1970, 1985 e 2002, a partir da combinação de técnicas de sensoriamento remoto, dados dos censos agropecuários, e informações de especialistas do setor agropecuário; iii) desenvolvimento dos fatores de emissão específicos para os principais sistemas de manejo da região de estudo utilizando um modelo linear misto; iv) e a etapa final que consistiu em combinar as etapas anteriores para se estimar as mudanças nos estoques de COS, e realizar a análise das incertezas associadas. Sucintamente, foram derivados fatores de emissão para as pastagens degradadas (0,91 ± 0,14), típicas em Latossolos (0,99 ± 0,08), típicas nos demais tipos de solos (1,24 ± 0,07), e pastagens melhoradas em Latossolos (1,19 ± 0,07), todos os fatores representam a comparação entre as pastagens manejadas e a vegetação nativa. Nos sistemas agrícolas foi possível derivar fatores de emissão para sistemas de plantio direto (PD) em áreas de Cerrado (1,08 ± 0,06), PD em áreas de floresta Amazônica e Cerradão (1,01 ± 0,17), cultivo convencional (CC) (0,94 ± 0,04) e culturas perenes (0,98 ± 0,14), sendo que o fator para o CC foi comparado aos dados de PD, enquanto que os demais fatores foram obtidos a partir da comparação com os estoques sob vegetações nativas. Quanto às emissões de COS, foi encontrado que usando o método de Monte Carlo com 20000 simulações no período de 1970 a 1985, os solos minerais apresentaram uma perda de C com fluxos anuais de 4,28 e 1,14 Tg C ano-1, para Mato Grosso e Rondônia, respectivamente, e com 95% de intervalo de confiança as incertezas foram de ± 41,5 e 21,9%, respectivamente. No segundo período, as emissões foram de 2,86 e 0,91 Tg C ano-1, com incertezas de ± 40,1 e 33,8%, respectivamente, para Mato Grosso e Rondônia. Quanto às fontes de incerteza, o carbono de referência, a opinião dos especialistas sobre as condições das pastagens e os fatores de emissão para pastagens típicas e degradadas foram às variáveis responsáveis por mais de 90% das incertezas das estimativas das emissões de C do solo. / Global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) due to human beings actions have led to an increase in average temperature of the earth of 0,55oC, and climate changes such as increases of the extreme weather events, sea level rise and precipitation changes are some examples of the possible implications of this global warming. Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest terrestrial organic carbon pool, containing more than the double of the atmospheric C; therefore, depending on the management the soils can became a source or a sink for the atmospheric C, influencing the effects of global warming. The objective of this research was to estimate the changes in SOC stocks due to the land-use and management systems in the states of Rondônia and Mato Grosso from 1970 to 1985 and from 1985 to 2002 using regional specific data, and perform the uncertainty analysis of these estimates through the Monte Carlo method. To achieve the main objective, this research was composed by the following steps: i) the estimate of the SOC stocks under native vegetation (reference carbon), ii) obtain data (areas) of the main land-use categories in the states of Rondônia and Mato Grosso for the years 1970, 1985 and 2002, from a combination of remote sensing, agricultural census data, and information from experts of the agricultural sector, iii) to derive the emission factors specific to the major management systems in the region of study using a linear-mixed model; iv) the final step was to combine the above steps to estimate the changes in SOC stocks, and carry out the uncertainty analysis associated with them. Briefly, emission factors were derived to the degraded grasslands (0.91 ± 0.14), typical in Oxisols (0.99 ± 0.08), typical in other soil types (1.24 ± 0.07), and improved grasslands in Oxisols (1.19 ± 0.07), all factors represent the comparison between managed pastures and native vegetation. In agricultural systems could be derived emission factors for no tillage (NT) systems in the Cerrado areas (1.08 ± 0.06), NT in Amazon Forest and Cerradão areas (1.01 ± 0.17), conventional tillage (CT) (0.94 ± 0.04), and perennial crops (0.98 ± 0.14). However, the CT factor was obtained from the comparison with NT data, while the other factors were compared to SOC stocks under the native vegetation. Using the Monte Carlo approach with 20000 simulations it was estimated the changes in the SOC stocks and the uncertainties associated to them. In the period from 1970 to 1985, mineral soils had a loss of C with annual fluxes of 4.28 and 1.14 Tg C yr-1, in Mato Grosso and Rondônia, respectively, and with a 95% confidence interval the uncertainties were of ± 41.5 and 21.9% respectively. In the second period, emissions were of 2.86 and 0.91 Tg C yr-1, with uncertainty of ± 40.1 and 33.8%, respectively, in Mato Grosso and Rondônia. In terms of the sources of uncertainty, the reference carbon, the experts opinions about the grasslands, and the emission factors for typical and degraded grassland were the variables responsible for more than 90% of the uncertainties in the SOC emissions estimates.

One of the major problems for the implementation of water resources planning and management in arid and semi-arid environments is the scarcity of hydrological data and, consequently, research studies. In this thesis, the hydrology of dryland river systems was analyzed and a semi-distributed hydrological model and a forecasting approach were developed for flow transmission processes in river-systems with a focus on semi-arid conditions. Three different sources of hydrological data (streamflow series, groundwater level series and multi-temporal satellite data) were combined in order to analyze the channel transmission losses of a large reach of the Jaguaribe River in NE Brazil. A perceptual model of this reach was derived suggesting that the application of models, which were developed for sub-humid and temperate regions, may be more suitable for this reach than classical models, which were developed for arid and semi-arid regions. Summarily, it was shown that this river reach is hydraulically connected with groundwater and shifts from being a losing river at the dry and beginning of rainy seasons to become a losing/gaining (mostly losing) river at the middle and end of rainy seasons. A new semi-distributed channel transmission losses model was developed, which was based primarily on the capability of simulation in very different dryland environments and flexible model structures for testing hypotheses on the dominant hydrological processes of rivers. This model was successfully tested in a large reach of the Jaguaribe River in NE Brazil and a small stream in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in the SW USA. Hypotheses on the dominant processes of the channel transmission losses (different model structures) in the Jaguaribe river were evaluated, showing that both lateral (stream-)aquifer water fluxes and ground-water flow in the underlying alluvium parallel to the river course are necessary to predict streamflow and channel transmission losses, the former process being more relevant than the latter. This procedure not only reduced model structure uncertainties, but also reported modelling failures rejecting model structure hypotheses, namely streamflow without river-aquifer interaction and stream-aquifer flow without groundwater flow parallel to the river course. The application of the model to different dryland environments enabled learning about the model itself from differences in channel reach responses. For example, the parameters related to the unsaturated part of the model, which were active for the small reach in the USA, presented a much greater variation in the sensitivity coefficients than those which drove the saturated part of the model, which were active for the large reach in Brazil. Moreover, a nonparametric approach, which dealt with both deterministic evolution and inherent fluctuations in river discharge data, was developed based on a qualitative dynamical system-based criterion, which involved a learning process about the structure of the time series, instead of a fitting procedure only. This approach, which was based only on the discharge time series itself, was applied to a headwater catchment in Germany, in which runoff are induced by either convective rainfall during the summer or snow melt in the spring. The application showed the following important features: • the differences between runoff measurements were more suitable than the actual runoff measurements when using regression models; • the catchment runoff system shifted from being a possible dynamical system contaminated with noise to a linear random process when the interval time of the discharge time series increased; • and runoff underestimation can be expected for rising limbs and overestimation for falling limbs. This nonparametric approach was compared with a distributed hydrological model designed for real-time flood forecasting, with both presenting similar results on average. Finally, a benchmark for hydrological research using semi-distributed modelling was proposed, based on the aforementioned analysis, modelling and forecasting of flow transmission processes. The aim of this benchmark was not to describe a blue-print for hydrological modelling design, but rather to propose a scientific method to improve hydrological knowledge using semi-distributed hydrological modelling. Following the application of the proposed benchmark to a case study, the actual state of its hydrological knowledge and its predictive uncertainty can be determined, primarily through rejected hypotheses on the dominant hydrological processes and differences in catchment/variables responses. / Die Bewirtschaftung von Wasserressourcen in ariden und semiariden Landschaften ist mit einer Reihe besonderer Probleme konfrontiert. Eines der größten Probleme für die Maßnahmenplanung und für das operationelle Management ist der Mangel an hydrologischen Daten und damit zusammenhängend auch die relativ kleine Zahl wissenschaftlicher Arbeiten zu dieser Thematik. In dieser Arbeit wurden 1) die grundlegenden hydrologischen Bedingungen von Trockenflusssystemen analysiert, 2) ein Modellsystem für Flüsse unter semiariden Bedingungen, und 3) ein nichtparametrisches Vorhersage-verfahren für Abflussvorgänge in Flüssen entwickelt. Der Wasserverlust in einem großen Abschnitt des Jaguaribe Flusses im nordöstlichen Brasilien wurde auf Basis von Daten zu Abflussraten, Grundwasserflurabstände und mit Hilfe multitemporaler Satellitendaten analysiert. Dafür wurde zuerst ein konzeptionelles hydrologisches Modell über die Mechanismen der Transferverluste in diesem Abschnitt des Trockenflusses erstellt. Dabei ergab sich, dass der Flussabschnitt mit dem Grundwasser hydraulisch verbunden ist. Der Flussabschnitt weist in der Trockenenzeit und am Anfang der Regenzeit nur Wasserverlust (Sickerung) zum Grundwasser auf. Im Laufe der Regenzeit findet auch ein gegenseitiger Austausch vom Grundwasser mit dem Flusswasser statt. Aufgrund dieser hydraulischen Kopplung zwischen Flusswasser und Grundwasser sind für diesen Flussabschnitt hydrologische Modellansätze anzuwenden, die generell für gekoppelte Fluss-Grundwassersysteme, v.a. in feuchtgemäßigten Klimaten, entwickelt wurden. Es wurde ein neuartiges hydrologisches Simulationsmodell für Transferverluste in Trockenflüssen entwickelt. Dieses Modell ist für unterschiedliche aride und semiaride Landschaften anwendbar und hat eine flexible Modellstruktur, wodurch unterschiedliche Hypothesen zur Relevanz einzelner hydrologische Prozesse getestet werden können. Es wurde für den zuvor genannten großen Abschnitt des Jaguaribe Flusses im nordöstlichen Brasilien und für einen kleinen Flussabschnitt im „Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed“ (WGEW) in Arizona, Südwest-USA, angewendet. Für die eine prozess-orientierte Simulation von Abflussbedingungen und Transferverlusten im Einzugsgebiet des Jaguaribe hat sich gezeigt, dass die am besten geeignete Modellstruktur sowohl den Austausch zwischen Flusswasser und Grundwasser (senkrecht zur Fließrichtung des Flusses) als auch die parallel zum Fluss verlaufende Grundwasserströmung enthält. Die Simulationsexperimente mit unterschiedlichen Modellstrukturen („Hypothesentest“) reduzierte nicht nur die Modellstrukturunsicherheit, sondern quantifizierte auch die Qualität der Modellergebnisse bei folgenden Varianten der Modellstruktur: a) Abflluss im Fluss ohne Interaktion mit dem Grundwasser (keine Transferverluste) und b) Interaktion zwischen Fluss und Grundwasser ohne parallelen Grundwasserstrom zum Flussstrom. Durch die Anwendung auf die beiden unterschiedlichen Trockenflusssysteme wurden neue Erkenntnisse über die Sensitivität des Modells unter verschiedenen Bedingungen erworben. Beispielsweise waren die Parameter der ungesättigten Zone, die von hoher Relevanz für den kleinen Flussabschnitt im WGEW waren, viel sensitiver als die Parameter der gesättigten Zone, die besonders relevant für den Jaguaribe Flussabschnitt in Brasilien waren. Die Ursache für diese sehr unterschiedliche Sensitivität liegt darin, dass beim WGEW das Flusswasser nur mit der ungesättigten Zone in Kontakt steht, da sich in diesem Gebiet, welche im Vergleich zur Jaguaribe-Region noch deutlich trockener ist, kein Grund-wasserleiter bildet. Letztlich wurde ein nicht-parametrisches Verfahren, zur Simulation der deterministischen Evolution und stochastischen Fluktuation der Abflussdynamik entwickelt. Im Unterschied zu prozessbasiertem Modellsystemen basiert dieses Verfahren nicht auf Modellkalibrierung sondern auf einem Lernprozess, basierend auf Zeitreihendaten. Als Anwendungsbeispiel wurde ein mesoskaliges Einzugsgebiet im Erzgebirge, NO-Deutschland gewählt, in dem starke Abflussereignisse entweder durch konvektive Niederschlagsereignisse oder durch Schneeschmelze generiert werden. Die folgenden wichtigsten Ergebnisse wurden erzielt: • Regressionsmodellansätze basierend auf den zeitlichen Änderungen der Abflüsse liefern bessere Ergebnisse gegenüber Ansätzen basierend auf direkten Abflussdaten; • mit zunehmendem Vorhersagehorizont wandelt sich das hydrologische System von einem mit Zufallsanteilen verrauschten dynamischen System zu einem linearen probabilistischen Zufallsprozess; • Bei zunehmendem Abfluss (ansteigenden Ganglinie) erfolgt meist eine Abflussunterschätzung, bei abnehmendem Abfluss (fallende Ganglinie) erfolgt meist eine Abflussüberschätzung. Dieses nichtparametrische Verfahren ergibt im Vergleich mit einem prozess-orientierten und flächenverteilten hydrologischen Hochwasservorhersagemodell bis zu einem Vorhersagezeitraum von 3 Stunden Ergebnisse von vergleichbar guter Qualität. Letztendlich wurde ein Vorgehen bzgl. künftiger Forschungen zu hydrologischer Modellierung vorgeschlagen. Das Ziel dabei war ein wissenschaftliches Verfahren zur Verbesserung des hydrologischen Wissens über ein Einzugsgebiet. Diese Verfahren basiert auf einem Hypothesentest zu den relevanten hydrologischen Prozessen und der Untersuchung der Sensitivitäten der hydrologischen Variablen bei unterschiedlichen Einzugsgebieten.

The United States coastline contain some of the most valued ecological resources, the most populated urban areas, the most complex infrastructure systems, the most prolific economic engines, and the busiest ports of trade. However important the coastline may be to our nation, the history of our coastal communities suggests that they are extremely vulnerable to natural disasters, including hurricane landfall. There are many potential reasons for this vulnerability, and several of them are considered in this work. The common goal of research presented here is to better understand the hydrodynamic forces developed as hurricanes impact the coast so that the resulting effects on coastal resources can be better understood and managed, and vulnerability can be significantly minimized. This work begins with consideration of the hydraulic domain at the interface between inland riverine and coastal environments. Regulators, and therefore those being regulated, generally prefer to separate riverine systems from coastal systems in the design and analysis of coastal infrastructure. Although analysis is greatly simplified, important synergistic hydrodynamic effects are not considered which can have dramatic negative effects on the ability of infrastructure to withstand hurricane impact. Research continues by evaluating how society delineates the coastal flood hazard. Current methods apply a deterministic, steady-state approach to defining this highly dynamic feature influenced by multiple uncertain and variable parameters. By ignoring the variability inherent in the coastal floodplain, society is not able to correctly define the flood hazard, and therefore cannot fully asses the risk to which it is exposed. A methodology is presented to more realistically quantify the coastal flood hazard and to calculate an appropriate flood risk metric. Finally, this research considers the reliability of a coastal community's water distribution system under hurricane impact. By understanding system vulnerability and system interdependence, community leaders can provide more reliable infrastructure systems, thereby reducing the magnitude of disaster and shortening the recovery time. A methodology is presented to quantify the reliability of a water system under several hurricane impact scenarios.

The objective of this thesis is to develop and implement an algorithm for inverting the sound speed profile via estimation of the parameters embedded in a geoacoustic model. The environmental model inscribes a continuously-varying marine sediment layer with density and sound speed distributions represented by the generalized-exponential and inverse-square functions, respectively. Based upon a forward problem of plane-wave reflection from a non-uniform sediment layer overlying a uniform elastic basement, an inversion procedure for estimating the sound speed profile from the reflected sound field under the influence of noise is established and numerically implemented. The inversion invokes a probabilistic approach quantified by the posterior probability density for measuring the uncertainties of the estimated parameters from synthetic noisy data. Preliminary analysis on the solution of the forward problem and the sensitivity of the model parameters is first conducted, leading to a determination of the parameters chosen for inversion in the ensuing study. The parameter uncertainties referenced 1-D and 2-D marginal posterior probability densities are then examined, followed by the statistical estimation for the sound speed profile in terms of 99 % credibility interval. The effects of, the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), the dimension of data vector, the region in which the data sampled, on the statistical estimation of sound speed profile are demonstrated and discussed.

Climate change and anticipated impacts of sea level rise such as increased coastal erosion, inundation, flooding due to storm surges and salt water intrusion to freshwater resources will affect all the countries but mostly small island countries of oceans and low-lying lands along coastlines. Turkey having 8333 km of coastline including physically, ecologically and socio-economically important low-lying deltas should also prepare for the impacts of sea level rise as well as other impacts of climate change while participating in adaptation and mitigation efforts. Thus, a coastal vulnerability assessment of Turkey to sea level rise is needed both as a part of coastal zone management policies for sustainable development and as a guideline for resource allocation for preparation of adaptation options for upcoming problems due to sea level rise. In this study, a fuzzy coastal vulnerability assessment model (FCVI) of a region to sea level rise using physical and human activity indicators of impacts of sea level rise which use commonly available data are developed. The results enable decision makers to compare and rank different regions according to their vulnerabilities to sea level rise, to prioritize impacts of sea level rise on the region according to the vulnerability of the region to each impact and to determine the most vulnerable parameters for planning of adaptation measures to sea level rise. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis performed for the results of the model (FCVI) is the first time application of a fuzzy uncertainty analysis model to coastal vulnerability assessments. These analysis ensure that the decision makers could be able to interpret the results of such vulnerability assessments based primarily on expert perceptions accurately enough. This in turn, would increase the confidence levels of adaptation measures and as well as accelerate implementation of adaptation of coastal areas to climate change. The developed coastal vulnerability assessment model is applied successfully to determine the vulnerability of G&ouml / ksu, G&ouml / cek and Amasra regions of Turkey that have different geological, ecological and socio-economical properties. The results of the site studies show that G&ouml / ksu has high vulnerability, G&ouml / cek has moderate vulnerability and Amasra shows low vulnerability to sea level rise. These results are in accordance with the general literature on impacts of sea level rise at different geomorphological coastal areas thus the applicability of fuzzy vulnerability assessment model (FCVI) to coastal areas is validated.

Estimation of the total mission life of a spacecraft is an important issue for the communication satellite industries. For accurate determination of the remaining mission life of the satellite it is essential to estimate the amount of propellant present in the propellant tank of the spacecraft at various stages of its mission life. Because the annual revenue incurred from a typical communication satellite operating at its full capacity is on the order of millions of dollars, premature removal of spacecraft from their orbits results in heavy losses. Various techniques such as the bo okkeeping method, the gas law method, numerical modeling techniques, and use of capacitive sensors have been employed in the past for accurate determination of the amount of propellant present in a spacecraft. First half of the thesis is concerned with sensitivity analysis of the various propellant gauging techniques, that is, estimating the e ects of the uncertainty in the instruments employed in the propellant gauging system on the onboard propellant estimation. This sensitivity analysis is done for three existing propellant gauging techniques – gas injection method, book-keeping method and the propellant tank heating method. A comparative study of the precision with which the onboard propellant is estimated by the three techniques is done and the primary source of uncertainty for all the three techniques is identified. It is illustrated that all the three methods — the gas injection method, the book-keeping method and the propellant tank heating method — are inherently indirect methods of propellant gauging, as a consequence of which, the precision with which the three techniques estimate the residual propellant decreases towards the end of mission life of the spacecraft. The second half of the thesis explores the possibility of using a new propellant tank configuration, consisting of a truncated cone centrally mounted within a spherical propellant tank, to measure the amount of liquid propellant present within the tank. The liquid propellant present within the propellant tank orients itself in a geometry, by virtue of its dominant surface tension force in zero-g condition, which minimizes its total surface energy. Study reveals that the amount of liquid propellant present in the tank can thus be estimated by measuring the height of the propellant meniscus within the central cone. It is also observed that, unlike gas law metho d, bookkeeping method or the propellant tank heating metho d, where the precision of the estimated propellant fill-fraction decreases towards the end-of-life of the spacecraft, for the proposed new configuration the precision increases.

Estimation of the total mission life of a spacecraft is an important issue for the communication satellite industries. For accurate determination of the remaining mission life of the satellite it is essential to estimate the amount of propellant present in the propellant tank of the spacecraft at various stages of its mission life. Because the annual revenue incurred from a typical commu-nication satellite operating at its full capacity is on the order of millions of dollars, premature removal of spacecraft from their orbits results in heavy losses. Various techniques such as the bookkeeping method, the gas law method, numerical modeling techniques, and use of capacitive sensors have been employed in the past for accurate determination of the amount of propellant present in a spacecraft. First half of the thesis is concerned with sensitivity analysis of the various propellant gauging techniques, that is, estimating the effects of the uncertainty in the instruments employed in the propellant gauging system on the onboard propellant estimation. This sensitivity analysis is done for three existing propellant gauging techniques – gas injection method, book-keeping method and the propellant tank heating method. A comparative study of the precision with which the onboard propellant is estimated by the three techniques is done and the primary source of uncertainty for all the three techniques is identified. It is illustrated that all the three methods — the gas injection method, the book-keeping method and the propellant tank heating method — are inherently indirect methods of propellant gauging, as a consequence of which, the precision with which the three techniques estimate the residual propellant decreases towards the end of mission life of the spacecraft. The second half of the thesis explores the possibility of using a new propellant tank configuration, consisting of a truncated cone centrally mounted within a spherical propellant tank, to measure the amount of liquid propellant present within the tank. The liquid propellant present within the propellant tank orients itself in a geometry, by virtue of its dominant surface tension force in zero-g condition, which minimizes its total surface energy. Study reveals that the amount of liquid propellant present in the tank can thus be estimated by measuring the height of the propellant meniscus within the central cone. It is also observed that, unlike gas law method, bookkeeping method or the propellant tank heating method, where the precision of the estimated propellant fill-fraction decreases towards the end-of-life of the spacecraft, for the proposed new configuration the precision increases.