Syftet med studien var att undersöka samvariationen och korrelationen mellan de variabla förnybara energikällorna sol-, vind- och vattenkraft i fyra olika begränsade områden i Sverige. Studien ämnade att identifiera mönster mellan energislagen för att undersöka huruvida ett elkraftsystem enbart baserat på förnybara energikällor i Sverige är möjligt. Initialt genomfördes en litteraturstudie i syfte att ge kvalitativt underlag för det komplexa ämnet som undersöktes. Analysen och den kvantitativa delen av studien grundades på historiska klimatologiska data. Arbetet genomfördes i sin tur med hjälp av mjukvaran Matlab, där data hanterades och bearbetades. Parametrar och variabler som diskuterades och identifierades var framförallt effektspektrum, korskovarians och korrelation. Tidigare forskning tyder på att både positiv och negativ korrelation mellan olika variabla energislag förekommer beroende på vilka geografiska förutsättningar och vilket tidsspann som undersökts. Denna studie fann att negativ korrelation mellan sol- och vindkraft återkom för samtliga platser som studerades, medan sol- och vattenkraft istället korrelerade positivt. För vatten- och vindkraft var resultaten inte lika entydiga utan olika resultat erhölls beroende på tidsintervallet. / The purpose of the study was to examine the co-variation and correlation among the variable renewable energy sources solar, wind and hydropower in four different confined regions in Sweden. The study aimed to identify patterns among the energy sources to investigate whether a power system based on renewable energy sources in Sweden is achievable. Initially, a literature review was conducted to provide qualitative background for the complex subject investigated. The analysis and quantitative aspect of the report were based on historical climatological data. The work was carried out using Matlab software, where data was handled and processed. Parameters and variables discussed and identified primarily included power spectrum, cross-covariance, and correlation. Previous research suggests both positive and negative correlations among different variable energy sources occur depending on the geographic conditions and time span studied. This study found that negative correlation between solar and wind power recurred for all sites examined, while solar and hydropower instead showed a positive correlation. For hydropower and wind power, the results were not as consistent, with different outcomes depending on the time interval analyzed.

[pt] A natureza intermitente da geração eólica combinada com a conhecida volatilidade dos preços de eletricidade expõe as Empresas de Energia Eólica (WPCs) comprometidas com contratos de longo prazo aos chamados riscos de preço e quantidade. Vários instrumentos foram desenvolvidos nos últimos anos para mitigar essa exposição ao risco. No entanto, a maioria deles foi construído para lidar apenas com uma das partes, ou seja, a incerteza de preço ou geração. Para enfrentar essa questão, neste trabalho, propomos um instrumento derivativo customizado para as WPCs, aproveitando os princípios de opções e índices renováveis. A eficácia e atratividade do instrumento proposto, denominado Opção Eólica (WInd-Op), são avaliadas com dados reais do setor brasileiro por meio de um modelo de equilíbrio geral. Mostramos que as Empresas de Energia Solar (SPCs) podem ser candidatas relevantes para respaldar esses derivativos. Além disso, quando comparado com as opções tradicionais de compra e venda, usadas como referência, os resultados indicam que o equilíbrio obtido com o novo derivativo apresenta um volume total de negociação significativamente maior, preços de prêmio mais baixos e maior bem-estar geral. / [en] The intermittent nature of wind generation combined with the wellknown volatility of electricity spot prices expose Wind Power Companies (WPCs) committed to long-term forward contracts to the so-called price-andquantity risk. Several instruments were designed in the past years to mitigate this risk exposure. However, most of them were mainly constructed to cope with only one of its parts, i.e., price or generation uncertainty. To tackle this issue, in this work, we propose a tailored derivative instrument for WPCs leveraging the principles of options and renewable indexes. The effectiveness and attractiveness of the proposed instrument, referred to as the Wind-Indexed Option (WInd-Op), are evaluated with real data from the Brazilian sector through a general equilibrium setup. We show that Solar Power Companies (SPCs) can be relevant candidates to back these derivatives. Additionally, when compared to the traditional put-and-call options as a benchmark, the results indicate that the equilibrium obtained with the new derivative exhibits a significantly higher total traded volume, lower premium prices, and greater overall welfare.