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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

[en] FISCAL POLICY RISK AND THE YIELD CURVE: AN ALTERNATIVE MEASURE / [pt] RISCO FISCAL E CURVA DE JUROS: UMA MEDIDA ALTERNATIVA

RENATA CARREIRO AVILA 07 August 2023 (has links)
[pt] Risco fiscal afeta a curva de juros no contexto de economias emergentes? Como medir adequadamente esse tipo de risco? Explorando o caso do Brasil, estimamos uma medida alternativa de risco fiscal com base em notícias, utilizando processamento de linguagem de texto. Encontramos que aumento em risco fiscal gera aumento em taxas de juros longas, no prêmio a termo e depreciação na taxa de câmbio. Os efeitos são robustos a uma série de especificações alternativas do índice de risco fiscal, sugerindo que se trata de um fenômeno relevante no cenário brasileiro. / [en] Does fiscal policy risk affect the yield curve in an emerging economy? How can we adequately measure this kind of uncertainty? Exploiting the case of Brazil, we estimate a novel, news-based measure of fiscal policy risk using natural language processing. We show that increases in fiscal policy risk are associated to increases in the levels of long maturities in the yield curve, in the term spread and to a depreciation of the exchange rate. The effects are robust to a series of alternative specifications of the text-based index, suggesting that fiscal risk is a relevant phenomenon in the Brazilian setting.

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