[pt] O propósito do trabalho é avaliar os modelos matemáticos utilizados para a previsão da geração de biogás pelos aterros sanitários brasileiros e comparar as previsões com os resultados monitorados ao longo dos anos de operação. Cerca da metade do volume desse biogás é metano, sendo essa a sua parte mais significativa; primeiro, porque é um gás de efeito estufa; segundo, porque a sua queima, além de desejável, pode gerar energia – e renovável. Por isso, projetos de aterros que queimam metano podem receber incentivos financeiros – os créditos de carbono – através do Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL) do Protocolo de Quioto. Os aterros sanitários estudados são todos projetos MDL, para os quais existe obrigatoriamente um prévio documento de concepção, com as previsões de resultados, bem como documentos periódicos posteriores comprovando as metas alcançadas, todos publicados na internet. Pelo método de trabalho, explicitam-se a previsão de geração do metano – contidas no documento de concepção de projeto – e a quantidade captada – contida nos relatórios de monitoramento. Os modelos, parâmetros, resultados e eficiências são apresentados, bem como comparações entre diferentes aterros e modelos. Ao final do trabalho, responde-se a questão: as eventuais discrepâncias entre a previsão de geração e a captação efetiva de biogás dos aterros sanitários operados sob o MDL podem ser explicadas pelo uso inadequado dos modelos de previsão? / [en] Solid waste disposal sites (SWDS) – especially landfills – are a significant source of methane. Although having the potential to be captured and used as a fuel, most of the methane formed in SWDS is emitted to the atmosphere. After the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force in 1994 with the final goal of preventing climatic changes, all the countries that have ratified it were asked to estimate and report their greenhouse gas emissions, including methane. In order to support countries in this task, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published three sets of guidelines for national inventories, including sets of equations for calculating the quantity of methane formed as biodegradable waste decays. In addition, the Kyoto Protocol has created the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to assist the developed countries to offset their own greenhouse gas emissions by assisting other countries to achieve sustainable development and to reduce their emissions. Based on IPCC s methodologies, the CDM has issued a tool to help developers estimate reductions in methane emissions as a result of their project activities. Unfortunately, the four methodologies for calculating methane formation in landfills that are used worldwide – three from IPCC and one from CDM – yield different results, although they are all based on equations to simulate first order decay of biodegradable waste. Furthermore, differences in results from the use of the different models are not clearly presented, and there is not a clear understanding on how they should be used. The incorrect application of the methodologies can be seen in national inventories and in CDM projects activities. The purpose of this thesis is to assess the mathematical models used to predict the generation of biogas by landfills in Brazil and to compare the forecasts with the monitored results over the years of operation. According to Scharff and Jacobs (2006), the emission from a landfill has a high temporal and spatial variability and the authors assert that this is a complicated area of study. Approximately half the volume of this biogas is methane, which is its most significant part; firstly, because it is a greenhouse gas; and secondly, because its burning, as well as being desirable, can generate energy – of the renewable type. For this reason, landfill projects that burn methane are able to receive financial incentives – the carbon credits – through the CDM. Since 2005, when the Kyoto Protocol entered into force and launched the CDM, solid waste disposal sites are seen differently in Brazil. The landfills studied here are CDM projects that had their potential for biogas EXPANDED ABSTRACT evaluated at their inception and which later on had their generation models and their parameters re-evaluated. These projects have undergone a renewal of their first 7-year crediting period, within the CDM procedures, when it was necessary to update the baseline and monitoring methodology. In order to have an ex-ante estimation of the methane generation in CDM landfill projects, it is necessary to follow the methodologies approved by the CDM Executive Board. These methodologies are based on the procedures used for national greenhouse gas inventories of the IPCC, which in turn assesses the scientific knowledge around the world on climate change and greenhouse gases. There are three editions of IPCC guidelines (1997, 2000 and 2006), other than several versions for the ones issued by the CDM Executive Board. This thesis shows the differences among the models contained in these methodologies, besides the different interpretations and different ways to apply the methodologies in the analyzed projects. Two more models were added to the analysis: those referred to in World Bank (2004) – the so-called Scholl-Canyon model and the U.S. EPA s LFG Emissions Model (LandGEM). All CDM projects are required to have a prior design document as well as verified monitoring reports, which demonstrate the emission reductions, all documents published on the Internet. The method of work used in this study was to highlight for each project the generation forecast and the amount of methane captured during several years of operation, with the knowledge that these figures are not a simple translation of carbon credits. CDM procedures require some baseline and leakage discounts and allow more credits whenever electricity is generated from the biogas, and these facts have to be understood and taken into account. Models, parameters, results and efficiencies are then presented and compared. Based on the analyses of the models, the authors also indicate the need for a correction in the tool to calculate emissions from landfills as adopted by the CDM Executive Board. This thesis also shows how the experience of the first 7-year crediting period of each project was used in its second period, and makes a critical analysis of the suitability of the use of these prediction models, as well as a confrontation with other studied models, where the data was adequate. This study has the ultimate intent to contribute to enterprises that are designed to improve sanitary conditions

[pt] Esta tese tem por objetivo avaliar o potencial de geração de biogás, por degradação anaeróbica de resíduos sólidos urbanos em perfis de um aterro sanitário. As amostras foram obtidas a partir de perfis de sondagem compostos por materiais dispostos em épocas distintas e com diferentes idades em relação a seu estágio de decomposição. Foi elaborado protocolo específico para determinação da temperatura, pH, composição gravimétrica, distribuição granulométrica, teores de umidade, de matéria orgânica, de sólidos voláteis e de lignina nessas amostras e criada metodologia com o uso de dados topográficos, para a determinação das idades de disposição dos resíduos. Foi ainda desenvolvido equipamento eudiométrico para a determinação potencial bioquímico de metano, com medidas de variação volumétrica e avaliação do prognóstico de geração de metano por modelos de primeira ordem mais consagrados (LandGEM e IPCC). Os dados experimentais indicaram que poucas propriedades apresentaram uma correlação com o perfil e com a idade dos RSU, devido à alta heterogenidade do material. Embora o potencial de biogás e a idade dos RSU não tenham apresentado correlação entre si, o material mais novo, de quase um ano, produziu maior quantidade de biogás e houve uma redução de 78 porcento dessa produção para a do material de 3 anos. Verificou-se uma relação entre o teor de matéria orgânica e de sólidos voláteis com a produção de biogás para materiais com até 4 anos. O prognóstico da geração de biogás aplicando os dados experimentais aos modelos EPA e IPCC foi menor do que quando adotados os parâmetros default. A retroanálise segundo o IPCC, com os dados experimentais, indicaram valores de DOC muito inferiores aos usados com default, resultando em menores emissões de biogás. / [en] The aim of this thesis is to evaluate of the potential biogas generation formed in the anaerobic phase from the degradation of urban solid waste with variables ages of deposition in a sanitary landfill. The materials were obtained from borehole profiles, being composed of materials disposed at different times and with variables ages in relation to their state of deposition. The knowledge of the physic-chemical characteristics is essential for assessing the biochemical potential of gases. Thus, it was developed: (i) a protocol for determination of properties, such as temperature, pH, gravimetric composition, particle size distribution, moisture content, organic matter content, volatile solids content, lignin content; (ii) one eudiometer device was constructed, with volume variation measurements for determining the biochemical methane potential; (iii) methodology to identify the ages of waste disposal by topography; and (iv) a methodology for predicting methane generation by well-known first order models (LandGEM and IPCC). Due to the high heterogeneity of the material, the experimental data indicated that few properties showed a trend in their behavior with respect to the profile and the age of MSW. Although the potential for biogas generation and the age of MSW showed no correlation, the newer material (almost one year old) showed higher biogas production. Gas production related to the 3 year old material was 78 percent lower compared to the newer one. Even with limited data, there is a relationship between the content of organic matter and/or volatile solid matter with the production of biogas for materials with more than 4 years. The prediction of biogas generation by applying experimental data was lower compared to the results applying EPA and IPCC models. The backcalculation analysis with the experimental data determined of IPCC indicated much lower DOC values than those used with the default, resulting in lower emission of biogas.