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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

[en] SOVEREIGN RISK, VOLATILITY AND THE GOLD STANDARD: 1870-1930 / [pt] RISCO SOBERANO, VOLATILIDADE E PADRÃO-OURO: 1870–1930

PEDRO CARVALHO LOUREIRO DE SOUZA 26 January 2010 (has links)
[pt] O presente estudo documenta a relação entre a volatilidade do risco soberano e adesão ao padrão-ouro no período clássico, entre 1870 e 1914. A aplicação do modelo econométrico de FCGARCH (ou Flexible Coefficient GARCH) evidencia que regimes de baixa volatilidade de spreads – tal como medido pela diferença entre a taxa de juros obtida pelos empréstimos soberanos no mercado londrino e a contra-partida sem risco, os consols britânicos – estiveram associados a adesão ao padrão-ouro. De forma geral, interpretase que a baixa variância gerou as pré-condições necessárias para adesão ao regime, especialmente para países da periferia. Trabalhos anteriores limitavam-se à análise do comportamento da média dos spreads quando da adesão ao regime, sem encontrar nenhum efeito significativo. / [en] This research documents the relationship between sovereign risk volatility and gold standard adherence in the classical period comprised between 1870 and 1914. The application the econometric model of FCGARCH (or Flexible Coefficient GARCH) provides evidence that regimes of low volatility of spreads – as measured by the difference between the interest rate accrued by sovereign debt floated in the City of London and its risk-free counterpart, the British consols – were associated to adherence to the gold standard. In a general manner, it is interpreted that the low variance created the necessary preconditions for gold standard adherence, specially for countries in the periphery. Earlier papers on this subject analyzed the mean spread behavior when country adopted the regime, and no significant effect was found.

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