俄羅斯防擴散政策:伊朗核危機的戰略和經濟因素析 (2002-2010) The goal for this master thesis is to estimate the effectiveness of Russian non-proliferation policy during the nuclear crisis of Iran and explore the main factors (economic or strategic), that influence Russian policy in this dimension.

能源是攸關人類生存的一大課題，它提供熱能、照明和運輸，而且是經濟發展不可或缺的帶動因素。國家的經濟成長需仰賴充足可靠且價格合理的能源供應。對外政策重大議題尤其需要依賴安全可靠且價格合理的能源供應，像是民主、貿易、替代能源發展、消弭貧窮和環保等等相關發展支援計劃。 東北亞是具有高度經濟與政治價值的重要區域。在此區域內約有17億人口以及世界第二、第三大經濟體，不論在政治、經濟和文化上皆有莫大影響力。 俄罗斯是世界上碳酸氫化合物與鈾的主要出口國，也擁有名列前茅的核能發電廠運作技術。中國和日本不論在東北亞與世界都佔有重要地位，且高度依賴能源進口。而俄罗斯鄰近中國和日本，可以快速有效提供石油和天然氣等能源。故而俄罗斯與中日兩國在能源供應合作上顯然具有極高的發展潛力。 掌握能源供應的俄罗斯可以鞏固其東北亞的地位，進而成為該區域的超級強權。 研究目標在於解讀俄罗斯對中日兩國的能源關係以及對東北亞情勢的影響。筆者將採用地緣政治學中的「策略性操縱」理論和「區域安全複合體」的概念作為主要假設，分析俄罗斯與中日兩國能源關係的內容與後續走向，以及對區域情勢所造成的影響。 研究架構如下：第一章是本研究的背景、目標及方法；第二章詳細分析俄罗斯的石油、天然氣與核能燃料蘊藏量、該國的能源策略及其理論上的影響範圍；第三章的焦點為中國的能源需求、能源政策和外交，俄罗斯與中國能源供應合作的內容、發展與問題以及理論方面的評估；第四章探討日本的能源需求、能源政策和外交，俄罗斯與日本能源供應合作的內容、發展與問題以及理論方面的評估；第五章就俄罗斯對中國及對日本的能源關係進行比較分析，以ESPO的建設為例，探討其結果及影響；第六章則是回應研究目標、評估俄罗斯與中日兩國的能源關係，並且對俄罗斯在東北亞的能源政策提出建議。 / Energy is one of the most important factors for the survival of humanity. It provides the fuel of the economy, heat, light and mobility. The country’s economic growth depends on adequate, reliable and affordable supplies of energy. Key foreign policy objectives, including support for democracy, trade, sustainable economic development, poverty reduction and environmental protection rely on the provision of safe, reliable and affordable energy supplies. North East Asia is an important region in terms of its economic and political value. With a population of 1,7 billion people, and containing the world's second and third largest economies, it is a region of enormous political, economic and cultural significance. Russia, a major exporter of hydro carbonates and uranium, is one of the world’s leaders of nuclear plant operating technology. China and Japan are the main actors in NEA and highly depend on the import of energy resources. Moreover, Russia’s close proximity to China and Japan enables a fast and a reliably efficient supply of oil and gas. These attributes highlight and emphasize the excellent opportunities for energy cooperation between these countries. Russia’s strength in this field allows them to fortify their position in NEA as it aspires to become a regional super power. The goal of this research is to study Russian energy relations with China and Japan and how it affects the positions of the country in the region. The author would adopt the main assumptions of the Geopolitics, theory of “Strategic manipulation” and the concept of “Regional Security Complex” to analyze the content and consequences of Russian energy relations with China and Japan and its impact on the situation in the region. The framework of the research is illustrated as follows: chapter one gives the background, goals and methodology of the research; chapter two provides the detailed analysis of Russian oil, natural gas, nuclear power reserves, the country’s energy strategy and its theoretical implications; chapter three focuses on energy demand, energy diplomacy and strategy of China, the content, development, problems of Russo-Chinese energy cooperation and its theoretical evaluation; chapter four focuses on energy demand, energy diplomacy and strategy of Japan, the content, development, problems of Russo-Japanese energy cooperation and its theoretical evaluation; chapter five is devoted to the comparative study of Russian energy relations with China and Japan at the example of ESPO constructing, its results and implications; and chapter six concludes with responses to research goals, evaluation of energy relations between Russia, China and Japan and recommendations for Russian energy policy in North East Asia.