在冷戰結束與經濟議題的興起之下，非傳統安全在國際關係中所受到的關注越來越多。隨著石油危機的發生，『能源安全』開始成為討論的目標，也重重影響各國的國防、外交與經濟政策。然而，在80年代後所吹起的環保風潮，也使得能源的使用開始受到環保人士的監督。過去以經濟目標為主的能源安全內涵已經不符合全球暖化下的要求，新的能源安全典範開始融入『環境安全』與永續發展的環保目標。此外，在油價高漲的時代之下，『能源外交』的出現，也使得各國間的能源合作成為一種外交手段，俄羅斯的興起就是最佳範例。在能源、環保、經濟與國家安全的相互交錯之下，都使得現今的能源議題比過去複雜。 而歐盟正面臨的這種新式能源安全的挑戰，所以歐盟在2006年提出了《永續發展、競爭力和能源安全的歐洲戰略》的能源綠皮書（Green Paper）。在歐盟內部的能源政策目標中，積極希望能夠達成環境安全的要求來因應氣候變遷。同時也希望能夠配合歐盟的東擴，整合歐盟的內部天然氣市場，增加經濟與工業的競爭力；而在歐盟對外的能源戰略方面，主要是希望達成能源供應源多樣化的目標。因此，希望能與重要的能源生產國如俄羅斯、裡海地區與中東地區的國家建立能源合作的機制。最後，儘管面對許多挑戰，但是歐盟內部還是希望能建立共同能源政策，來增加歐盟對外能源談判的籌碼。 在全球化與氣候變遷的影響之下，能源生產國與能源進口國都面臨著不同的安全挑戰，並相互依賴著。沒有任何一方的獨善其身，都必須面對能源、環境與經濟的平衡。因此，希望藉由討論歐盟的經驗，讓其他國家在面對相同問題的時候可以有所借鏡。 關鍵詞：歐盟、能源政策、環境安全、能源安全、氣候變遷

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences. / Department of Government and Public Administration

在能源被最終消費之前，能源的開採、運輸或轉換過程都需另以能源為要素投入來源。現今再生能源生產技術尚處萌芽階段，許多技術之生產未能通過「能源分析」而尚處於研究發展階段，此時政府若以促進再生能源總產量為政策目標，並獎勵能源生產，可能導致不具生產效率的再生能源技術被使用，進而造成能源耗竭與環境問題的擴大。 本研究提出現今再生能源補貼基礎的錯誤，會導致能源浪費的情況發生，進而造成政策目標與執行結果不一致。針對這樣的問題，本研究以簡單的模型解釋問題發生的原因，更針對問題癥結提出有效的解決方法，並得到不錯的結果。避免能源浪費具體的解決方針為，改變舊有補貼「能源粗產出」的形式，政策目標應朝社會「能源淨產出」最適的方向發展，而這也是主要的研究重點所在。最後研究仍認為，讓所有能源價格反映其生產的社會成本，才是導正能源市場扭曲最佳的方法。 / The extraction, processing, transformation, and delivering of energy all need energy itself as an input. However, the technology for producing renewable energy seldom passes the energy analysis and is still in its infancy. If the government regards promoting the total output of renewable energy as a policy goal at this moment, it may induce inefficient technology to be used and may accelerate the exhaustion of natural resources and the degradation of environment. This study found that subsidy for encouraging renewable energy production based on gross output fails to solve the problem of market failure. It will lead to a waste of energy, and then cause the policy goal to be inconsistent with social optimality. This study explicitly solved the problem with a net output model. The contribution of this study is to prove that policy goal for renewable energy production should base itself on net output instead of on gross output. The best policy for solving market failure is to let energy price reflect its social cost.

中共隨經濟的高度發展對能源的消耗也愈來愈高，其能源產量除了煤炭之外，其他如石油、天然氣等石化燃料都面臨不足，已經無法靠自有石油資源來因應高消耗量，也造成日漸依賴進口的能源，而其能源進口地區主要是在中東，但是中東地區政局不穩定，且這條海上運輸線需經過索馬利亞和亞丁灣，沿線海盜猖獗，麻六甲的航道又比較狹長，若航運通道遭受阻斷，將足以對中共能源供應穩定帶來衝擊。 而中共於2009年12月啟動了第一條跨國天然氣管道—中亞天然氣管道(閥門)，該管道西起土庫曼穿越烏茲別克中部和哈薩克南部地區，經新疆霍爾果斯口岸入境;這等於打通了中共和中亞地區各國的進口原油的通道。截至2014年4月中旬，從新疆霍爾果斯口岸入境的中亞天然氣管道，已累計向中共輸送天然氣達到500億立方米。 然而新疆維吾爾自治區位於中共西北部地處，自古以來就是中共向西開放的重要門戶，有長達5,600公里的邊境線，惟新疆少數民族乃未停息的宗教不安問題，一直是北京及中亞最可能的潛在引爆點。為維持中共新疆地區社會穩定、經濟健康發展、民族團結、邊防鞏固及維護和保持新疆社會大局穩定，因此中共對新疆境內分離份子的態度（新疆境內有42﹪維吾爾族人），自然是中共關切所在。因此中共於新疆地區執行各項維穩及反恐任務，來抑制少數伊斯蘭教激進份子的東突厥斯坦獨立運動思潮，來達到其穩定內部社會秩序、並藉由與國際間的反恐合作持續在反恐建設上加強作為，鞏固政權及確保經由陸路運輸的石油氣管道安全，是當前對新疆最重要及緊迫的任務;其發展對中共的能源安全戰略、擴大與中亞、南亞的能源合作、保持邊疆穩定具有十分重要價值，使得新疆作為中共石油資源戰略接替區的戰略地位更加明朗。 / While energy consumption rises significantly with the rapid economic growth, China becomes self-insufficient in all kinds of fossil fuel, such as oil and natural gas, except coal, and depends more and more on imported resources, accordingly. China exports its energy resources from the Middle East mostly, however, stable supply from this area cannot be promised. First of all, many oil-producing countries in the Middle East suffer from regime transitions; secondly, the problem of pirate in the offshore Somalia and the Gulf of Aden cannot be overcome, and it would be highly inconvenient if the sea lines through the Strait of Malacca were interrupted. Therefore, China began to construct the first gas interstate pipeline in Central Asia, which starts from Turkmenistan, central Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, and enters China through the border city in Xinjian Uyghur Autonomous region, Horgos. Until mid-April 2014, this pipeline has delivered 50 billion cbm natural from Central Asia to China. However, this region, located in the Northwest China with 5,600 borderline, has been a disturbing issue for China because of conflict among ethnic and religious minorities and Chinese people. In order to maintain the stability in the economy, society and diverse ethnics in the border, China practices several policies, such as stabilization and counter-terrorism, to suppress the independence activity by Islamic extremists in Uyghuristan. Additionally, is important for China to secure the pipeline through Central Asia and the local governance by counter-terrorism with international cooperation. Therefore, Xinjian has strategic value for China regarding energy security, not just for the resource access to Central Asia, but also for the cooperation in South Asia. Central Asia, energy security, land pipeline, stabilization in Xinjian

本論文為民國六十八年元月十一日行政院通過的「台灣地區能源政策」之研究。全文 計一冊，分六章廿一節，約八萬餘字。本文係採系統理論分析架構，對現行台灣地區 能源政策的形成經過、內容大要、執行情形與評估作一探討，並試提出反饋性建議。 第一章結論，計分四節，簡述能源政策概念與本文研究動機與目的、研究範圍、分析 架構，方法與限制。 第二章台灣地區能源政策制訂背景與經過，分為三節，包括公共政策理論的探述與漸 進式台灣地區能源政策制訂背景與經過。 第三章台灣地區能源政策的內容，共分四節，主要係以現行能源政策條文及其相關實 施辦法或計劃為基準，分析能源的供給、使用、價格與發展資金及能源之立法，執行 機構與研究發展等政策的內容。 第四章台灣地區能源政策的執行情形，分為四節，就能源的供給、使用、能源價格的 訂定與能源之立法，執行機構與研究發展之執行情形等專題加以論述。 第五章台灣地區能源政策執行情形評估。分為四節，對能源的供給、節約、污染防治 與能源專責機構等問題作嘗試性粗略評估。 第六章結論，分為二節，乃是對現行台灣地區能源政策決策過程、政策內容與執行、 評估情形的綜合分析榫與建議，以供當局未來修正參考。

An analysis of the Russian factor in China’s energy policy in Central Asia shows that the importance of energy abundant region Central Asia is getting increased as the world oil demand goes up and the instability in the Middle East gets into a more serious position. As the second largest consumer of energy, China is getting more interested in this region. China’s reluctance to become excessively tied to the Middle East as a source of oil also is another reason that turns China’s face to Central Asia. Not being the only one who is starving for energy makes China to face with other great states (Russia and the US) who has the common interests with China in the region. Therefore, in order to understand China’s energy policy in Central Asia, one has to consider about the policies of other great states in the region. This study focuses on Russian factor in China’s energy policy in Central Asia. There is no doubt that, Russia’s policy in the region has a great effect in China’s every tactic in the region, but today’s one supreme power has an enormous effect on both of the states in the region. The main conclusion of the analysis is that Sino-Russia relations are likely to be more cooperative than competitive. Russia, with its abundant energy resources, is a very good partner that China can get into an energy-trade relationship with. They both are against the US influence in the region. Sino-Russian relations are likely to remain stable in the short and medium term, based on a convergence of interests. The happy state of the relationship may end in the longer term when both side dont need eachother in economic terms. China-US and US -Russia relations are more competitive than cooperative. So there is a big struggle for energy among these three great states. Energy rich Central Asian states’ -Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan- more pragmatic policies make these trilateral relations more complex.

全球能源消費大國之中，日本的低能源蘊藏量以及高能源利用率常引起多方研究。本文從蒐集並整理日本戰後至2011年間的能源政策、比較311前後兩個執政黨（民主黨、自民黨）的能源政策立場，到探究日本於311後能源政策轉折的方向及原因、並且進一步推敲出日本的能源治理模式。因此發現，日本在二戰之後就開始運用一系列的政策手段與能源市場干預途徑，突破低能源蘊藏量之先天不利條件，達到高能源利用率之後天技術優勢所創造的經濟成長。而當日本經歷2011年3月11日東日本大震災後，政府更強烈介入能源市場，希望進行能源結構的轉型，使得日本得以維持能源高自主率與溫室氣體低排放率的目標。本文因此結論，日本雖然身為能源匱乏國，但是它的能源政策充分體現出了國家介入能源市場由上而下治理模式的特性，使得日本得以突破能源約束，在諸多能源不利之條件下開創了近半世紀的經濟高度發展期。此外，本文亦結論日本於全球能源治理的角色可以歸納為三：（1）全球溫室氣體減量暨全球能源安全提升的追隨者；（2）區域性能源合作的示範者；（3）全球核能安全建立的示範者等三種角色。 / Japan is noted for its low energy endowment but high energy efficiency among the global top energy consuming nations. In this study, collection of the past Japanese energy policies from 1945 to 2011, comparison of the political stances on the energy strategies between the two Japanese ruling parties, Liberal Democratic Party and The Democratic Party, and investigation on factors causing a change of Japan’s energy policy post Fukushima contributed to outlining the pattern of Japan’s energy governance. This study found that Japan’s intervening in its the post-war domestic energy market by means of a string of policy instruments has successfully made Japan overcome the predicament of high energy demands out of low energy reserves, further achieve the edge of high energy efficiency, and therefore create its outstanding economic growth. Nevertheless, after experiencing another energy predicament post Fukushima, Japan made more effort on the intervention into its energy market to transform its domestic energy consumption structure with a view to maintaining high energy self-sufficient rates and low GHGs emissions. To conclude, although Japan is a nation of insufficient energy resources, its energy policies reveal the trait that the state intervenes in the energy market by the top-down governance approach to make its way to break through the energy constraints, creating a nearly half-century’s economic prosperity. Besides, we also conclude that Japan plays three major roles in the domain of global energy governance: 1. a follower of global GHGs emission abatement and global energy security enhancement, 2. a demonstrator on regional energy cooperation and, 3. a model of building global nuclear power safety.

本文旨在探討經濟外交理論對俄羅斯外交決策的影響。俄羅斯經濟外交政策主要是積極發展對外的經濟關係，創造對俄羅斯友善的國際環境，希望藉此帶動國內經濟的發展。而在俄羅斯牽涉經濟外交的各領域中，能源的因素尤其重要，由於俄羅斯境內蘊藏豐富的天然資源，尤其是天然氣，因此利用能源做為籌碼的經濟外交政策是俄羅斯對外政策中常見的情況。 而俄羅斯的經濟外交政策場域中，本文主要以近鄰和歐洲國家為主，由於許多俄羅斯的近鄰是前蘇聯的加盟共和國，同時也是能源的過境運輸國，因此俄羅斯常利用能源做為手段，藉此影響近鄰的對外政策。而歐洲國家大部份是俄羅斯的主要能源消費國，因此俄羅斯也可利用能源的出口為手段，打進歐洲各國的能源市場，藉此創造對俄羅斯友好的國際環境。 其中德國身為俄羅斯在歐洲最大的貿易夥伴，在政治和經濟上面的互動十分頻繁，德國主要從俄羅斯進口石油、天然氣。研究發現德國和其他歐洲國家相比，較為依賴俄羅斯能源的進口，因此給予俄羅斯對德國實行經濟外交戰略時的有效籌碼，特別是在天然氣領域中貿易互動方面，俄羅斯藉由能源公司對德國的能源領域的投資，企圖藉由深入德國的能源市場，進入歐洲的能源貿易體系。 / This thesis aims to discuss the Russian economic diplomacy. Russian economic diplomacy mainly focuses on using economic as a leverage to influence other countries policies to Russia with the purpose of creating an amicable international situation, and promoting Russian domestic economic situation. Due to the fact that Russia possesses various natural recourses, energy is the main theme in Russia economic diplomacy, especially natural gas. The topic of this study mainly discusses the economic diplomacy relations between Russia with near abroad and Europe. Most of the near abroad countries are former Soviet Union republics and the energy transit countries of Russia as well. As the result, Russia can use energy issue as a tool to sway these countries policies. Additionally, Russia can also utilize energy export to enter the Europe energy market because most of the European countries are the main energy consumer of Russia. The study has shown that German is the main political and economical partner of Russia, and is also the biggest trade partner and energy consumer of Russia compared to other countries throughout Europe. Thus, German is strongly dependent on Russia energy export, especially on petroleum and natural gas. This condition benefited Russia by providing a window for Russia to enter Germany energy market in terms of energy enterprise trade and investment to German. Furthermore, by entering German energy market, Russia can enter European energy trading system.

能源是攸關人類生存的一大課題，它提供熱能、照明和運輸，而且是經濟發展不可或缺的帶動因素。國家的經濟成長需仰賴充足可靠且價格合理的能源供應。對外政策重大議題尤其需要依賴安全可靠且價格合理的能源供應，像是民主、貿易、替代能源發展、消弭貧窮和環保等等相關發展支援計劃。 東北亞是具有高度經濟與政治價值的重要區域。在此區域內約有17億人口以及世界第二、第三大經濟體，不論在政治、經濟和文化上皆有莫大影響力。 俄罗斯是世界上碳酸氫化合物與鈾的主要出口國，也擁有名列前茅的核能發電廠運作技術。中國和日本不論在東北亞與世界都佔有重要地位，且高度依賴能源進口。而俄罗斯鄰近中國和日本，可以快速有效提供石油和天然氣等能源。故而俄罗斯與中日兩國在能源供應合作上顯然具有極高的發展潛力。 掌握能源供應的俄罗斯可以鞏固其東北亞的地位，進而成為該區域的超級強權。 研究目標在於解讀俄罗斯對中日兩國的能源關係以及對東北亞情勢的影響。筆者將採用地緣政治學中的「策略性操縱」理論和「區域安全複合體」的概念作為主要假設，分析俄罗斯與中日兩國能源關係的內容與後續走向，以及對區域情勢所造成的影響。 研究架構如下：第一章是本研究的背景、目標及方法；第二章詳細分析俄罗斯的石油、天然氣與核能燃料蘊藏量、該國的能源策略及其理論上的影響範圍；第三章的焦點為中國的能源需求、能源政策和外交，俄罗斯與中國能源供應合作的內容、發展與問題以及理論方面的評估；第四章探討日本的能源需求、能源政策和外交，俄罗斯與日本能源供應合作的內容、發展與問題以及理論方面的評估；第五章就俄罗斯對中國及對日本的能源關係進行比較分析，以ESPO的建設為例，探討其結果及影響；第六章則是回應研究目標、評估俄罗斯與中日兩國的能源關係，並且對俄罗斯在東北亞的能源政策提出建議。 / Energy is one of the most important factors for the survival of humanity. It provides the fuel of the economy, heat, light and mobility. The country’s economic growth depends on adequate, reliable and affordable supplies of energy. Key foreign policy objectives, including support for democracy, trade, sustainable economic development, poverty reduction and environmental protection rely on the provision of safe, reliable and affordable energy supplies. North East Asia is an important region in terms of its economic and political value. With a population of 1,7 billion people, and containing the world's second and third largest economies, it is a region of enormous political, economic and cultural significance. Russia, a major exporter of hydro carbonates and uranium, is one of the world’s leaders of nuclear plant operating technology. China and Japan are the main actors in NEA and highly depend on the import of energy resources. Moreover, Russia’s close proximity to China and Japan enables a fast and a reliably efficient supply of oil and gas. These attributes highlight and emphasize the excellent opportunities for energy cooperation between these countries. Russia’s strength in this field allows them to fortify their position in NEA as it aspires to become a regional super power. The goal of this research is to study Russian energy relations with China and Japan and how it affects the positions of the country in the region. The author would adopt the main assumptions of the Geopolitics, theory of “Strategic manipulation” and the concept of “Regional Security Complex” to analyze the content and consequences of Russian energy relations with China and Japan and its impact on the situation in the region. The framework of the research is illustrated as follows: chapter one gives the background, goals and methodology of the research; chapter two provides the detailed analysis of Russian oil, natural gas, nuclear power reserves, the country’s energy strategy and its theoretical implications; chapter three focuses on energy demand, energy diplomacy and strategy of China, the content, development, problems of Russo-Chinese energy cooperation and its theoretical evaluation; chapter four focuses on energy demand, energy diplomacy and strategy of Japan, the content, development, problems of Russo-Japanese energy cooperation and its theoretical evaluation; chapter five is devoted to the comparative study of Russian energy relations with China and Japan at the example of ESPO constructing, its results and implications; and chapter six concludes with responses to research goals, evaluation of energy relations between Russia, China and Japan and recommendations for Russian energy policy in North East Asia.

中國大陸自「改革開放」以來，在經濟體制和結構上有著急遽的轉變，同時，海峽兩岸的經貿互動與依存程度也愈來愈高。因此，能有效分析中國大陸經濟情勢的政策模型，對於台灣與中國大陸的政策制定者與政策研究分析者而言皆十分重要。可計算一般均衡（Computable General Equilibrium，CGE）模型由於在數據需求的較大彈性及模型結構上的特性，成為中國大陸現今重要的經濟政策模型之一，本研究的目的在於考察、分析中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的研發背景、發展歷程、建模過程、主要政策應用方向及研究結果。 　　本研究的內容及流程如后：（1）依「歷史研究」、「調查研究」來歸納、分析中國大陸經濟學研究的發展歷程，以及中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的發展歷程；（2）接著依「文獻研究」來分析、分類本研究所蒐集的中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型實證文獻（1978年－1998年）；（3）接著依「理論研究」來歸納、分析出可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的發展、基本結構、數據基礎與建模（Modeling）；（4）以「可計算一般均衡」（CGE）方法，先依據最新的「1995年度中國投入產出表」，編制出兩張：「中國大陸1995年社會會計矩陣」、「中國大陸1995年金融社會會計矩陣」為模型數據基礎，然後應用中國大陸所研發的兩個可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型（「中國大陸經濟-環境可計算一般均衡模型」、「中國大陸金融可計算一般均衡模型」）的主要結構和方程式，以說明中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的建模過程和政策應用方向及模擬結果。 　　本研究的研究結果如后：（1）中國大陸經濟學研究的發展、實際經濟情況變化和政策制定需要，導致中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型在「改革開放」後的發展可分為「啟蒙研發」和「政策應用」兩個階段；（2）將中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型實證文獻（1978年－1998年）有系統地分類出「貿易政策問題」、「能源和環境政策問題」、「財政和稅收問題」、「經濟改革和發展策略問題」、「外來衝擊問題」、「貨幣金融問題」、「社會保險問題」等七類實證文獻；（3）應用兩個中國大陸研發的可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型，來說明建模（Modeling）與數據編制的過程，並延續、拓展相關的政策模擬研究，分析了環境政策（「綠色導向能源政策」，Green-Oriented Energy Policy：2000年－2015年）與匯率政策（「管理浮動匯率政策」，Managed Floating Exchange Rate Policy：1998年）對中國大陸經濟體的影響。 謝 詞 ii 中文提要 iv 英文提要 vi 中文目次 viii 英文目次 ix 表 次 x 圖 次 xi 1. 緒 論 1 1.1 研究動機 1 1.2 研究目的 3 1.3 研究流程與內容 4 2. 文獻探討 5 2.1 中國大陸經濟學研究的發展歷程 5 2.2 中國大陸可計算一般均衡模型的發展 11 2.3 中國大陸可計算一般均衡模型實證文獻回顧 20 3. 可計算一般均衡模型的發展、基本結構、數據基礎與建模 32 3.1 可計算一般均衡模型的概念與發展 32 3.2 可計算一般均衡模型的一般性基本結構 36 3.3 可計算一般均衡模型的數據基礎與校準 40 3.4 可計算一般均衡模型的計算機求解與建模過程 42 4. 中國大陸可計算一般模型之應用（1）─中國大陸經濟-環境可計算一般均衡模型 45 4.1 模型的基本結構 45 4.2 模型方程式 49 4.3 模型的數據基礎與校準 57 4.4 政策應用-中國大陸宏觀調控下環境政策之一般均衡分析 61 5. 中國大陸可計算一般模型之應用（II）─中國大陸金融可計算一般均衡模型 69 5.1 模型的基本結構 69 5.2 模型方程式 71 5.3 模型的數據基礎與校準 73 5.4 政策應用-中國大陸匯率政策之一般均衡分析 78 6. 結 論 83 6.1 本研究主要貢獻 83 6.2 研究限制與建議 84 6.3 後續研究建議 85 參考文獻 86 附錄1. 94 附錄2. 103 / Both the system and structure of Chinese economy have been changed rapidly since the launch of "economic reform and opening to the outside" in Mainland China, and the economic interaction and trade interdependence between Taiwan and Mainland China are intenser and closer. Effective policy analysis models for Chinese economy is very important to the policy makers and policy analysis researcher both in Taiwan and Mainland China. The Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） model has become one of the most important economic policy analysis model because of its characteristic of higher flexibility on benchmark data and structure. The purpose of this study is to review, investigate and analyze the developmental background, developmental progress, modeling procedure, policy simulations and research results. 　　The brief contents and procedure of this study consist of （1） reviewing on the development of economic research in mainland China and CGE modeling for Chinese economy, （2） reviewing on the literature of CGE models for Chinese economy used on Policy Analysis（1978－1998）, （3） reviewing on the development, basic structure, benchmark data and modeling of CGE model, （4） constructing two Chinese Social Accounting Matrix （SAM） tables developed from the most recent 1995 Chinese Input-Output table to be the benchmark data of two CGE models, the "Chinese Economic-Environmental CGE model" and the "Chinese Financial CGE model", which are developed from Chinese government and researchers, and we revise them in this study,（5） applying those two models to show and illustrate the modeling procedure and results of policy simulations of CGE models for Chinese economy. 　　In conclusion and contribution, it is composed of three parts. （1） The development of CGE model in Mainland China can be divided into two ages, "The Beginning"（1978－1991） and "The Take-off"（1992－）, which results from the development of economic research in Mainland China, the rapidly changed economic system and structure of Chinese economy, and government's urgent demands for policy-analysis tools. （2） The literature of CGE models for Chinese economy used on policy analysis from 1978 to 1998 can be classified into seven groups－ trade policy, energy and environmental policies, public finance and tax reform policies, economic reform and development strategy, external shocks, monetary and financial policies, and social insurance policy. （3） We apply those two CGE models for Chinese economy to analyze the economic and environmental impacts of environmental policy－ " Green-Oriented Energy Policy"（2000－2015） and the economic impacts of the " Managed Floating Exchange Rate Policy"（1998）.