The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to the creation of five new states in Central Asia. These states: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan, have become both the object of international rivalries in Central Asia and the sources of new political forces as they act to enlarge their independence in world politics. This paper attempts to show new and old forces in terms of natural gas in Central Asia. This thesis shows conditions and obstacles of Central Asian States (CAS) to develop their own energy sector. The research focuses on those states in Central Asia which possess significant stocks of hydrocarbons and have the potential to export oil and gas: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Furthermore, this dissertation tries to explain its present situation and perspectives by means of a geopolitical approach. / The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to the creation of five new states in Central Asia. These states: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan, have become both the object of international rivalries in Central Asia and the sources of new political forces as they act to enlarge their independence in world politics. This paper attempts to show new and old forces in terms of natural gas in Central Asia. This thesis shows conditions and obstacles of Central Asian States (CAS) to develop their own energy sector. The research focuses on those states in Central Asia which possess significant stocks of hydrocarbons and have the potential to export oil and gas: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Furthermore, this dissertation tries to explain its present situation and perspectives by means of a geopolitical approach.

本文研究重點為探討跨國公司對在地國之影響，分析與比較俄羅斯天然氣工業集團(Gazprom Group)在烏克蘭與白俄羅斯兩國之議價關係。 Gazprom為全球壟斷性天然氣公司，在2006年冬季俄、烏天然氣談判破局而發生歐洲大規模斷氣事件後，其對在地國的特殊影響力才逐漸成為各界熱烈討論之議題。一般而言，在全球化下的跨國公司研究多半聚焦在跨國公司的經濟影響力，然而Gazprom在母國政府的支持下，在全球市場上除了經濟面外，還對其他國家發揮著政治面向上的影響力，特別是在烏克蘭與白俄羅斯的例子上格外明顯。學界目前對於Gazprom的主流評論認為Gazprom為母國外交工具，然而追溯Gazprom、在地國與俄羅斯三方之天然氣關係背景，發現Gazprom在烏、白兩國之作為不能單純將Gazprom設想為「母國外交工具」，Gazprom與兩國之天然氣衝突是俄羅斯政府「外交目標」與Gazprom「商業獲利」考量下之綜合結果；以Gazprom為主體方向下思考，對Gazprom來說，俄羅斯政府是企業對在地國的「產業政策影響工具」，更正確地來說，Gazprom與俄羅斯政府是屬於互相為用的關係。 為破除既定「外交工具」思考方向，本文採議價能力衰減模型(Obsolescing Bargaining Model)作為基礎研究架構，以Gazprom為研究主體，突破以往傳統上單層議價模型中只論跨國公司與在地國之議價過程，加入母國政府與在地國政府之議價關係，分析俄與烏、白兩國政府議價結果與Gazprom影響力之關聯，以貼合本文案例實際研究需要。 / This paper examines the impact of multinational corporations (MNC) on host country, analyzes and compares the two cases in Ukraine and Belarus of bargaining relations between Gazprom Group and host governments. Gazprom is a global natural gas monopoly, after the breakup of gas negotiation between Russia and Ukraine and cut-off of Russian gas to Europe, its special impact on host country has attracted people of all the different circles to discuss it. In most cases of globalization researches on MNC’s role, people concentrate on the economic impact of MNC; however, with the support from home government, Gazprom has shown not only its economic power, but also its political impact on host country, especially on Ukraine and Belarus. Till now, the academic circle has seen Gazprom as an instrument of Russian foreign policy, but after tracing back the historical background of gas relations between Gazprom, host country, and Russia, we can figure out Gazprom can’t be simply regarded as the policy instrument, in fact, the Russia-Ukraine and Russia-Belarus gas disputes between are the complex of Russian foreign policy consideration and Gazprom commercial actions. For Gazprom, Russian government is an instrument as well to influence host country’s policy in gas sector. More correctly, Gazprom and Russian government use each other for their own purposes. To break through the existing “instrument of foreign policy” research direction, this paper uses obsolescing bargaining model as the basic framework, regarding Gazprom as the main subject, changing the traditional one-tier bargaining model into two-tier, including bargaining relationship between home government and host government, then analyzes the correlation between the governmental bargaining results and Gazprom’s bargaining power for the practical case study needs.

緬甸位於東南亞與南亞的接合處，也位於中共與印度之間。對中共而言，可藉由中緬陸水聯運通道經孟加拉灣（Bay of Bengal）到達印度洋，未來亦可藉中緬原油與天然氣管道輸送自中東地區購買之原油，突破「麻六甲困境」，故緬甸具有重要地緣戰略地位。緬甸因軍事政府殘暴鎮壓人民及毒品的貿易，備受國際社會所摒棄，另緬甸軍政府的人權紀錄亦備受批評。然近年緬甸軍政府利用境內豐富的寶石礦藏、林木、天然氣與鄰國進行貿易，藉經濟改革政策安輔境少數民族的叛亂。 近年中共幫助緬甸在可可島基地設施現代化及安裝雷達設施，緬甸軍政府亦透過與中共交往，獲取所需武器與經濟援助，甚至成為其外交困境的突破口。中共與緬甸的密切關係除已引起印度的關切之外，亦受到美國的注意。未來中共與緬甸軍事合作將會為東南亞之區域和平帶來何種衝擊，誠然值得觀察。

An analysis of the Russian factor in China’s energy policy in Central Asia shows that the importance of energy abundant region Central Asia is getting increased as the world oil demand goes up and the instability in the Middle East gets into a more serious position. As the second largest consumer of energy, China is getting more interested in this region. China’s reluctance to become excessively tied to the Middle East as a source of oil also is another reason that turns China’s face to Central Asia. Not being the only one who is starving for energy makes China to face with other great states (Russia and the US) who has the common interests with China in the region. Therefore, in order to understand China’s energy policy in Central Asia, one has to consider about the policies of other great states in the region. This study focuses on Russian factor in China’s energy policy in Central Asia. There is no doubt that, Russia’s policy in the region has a great effect in China’s every tactic in the region, but today’s one supreme power has an enormous effect on both of the states in the region. The main conclusion of the analysis is that Sino-Russia relations are likely to be more cooperative than competitive. Russia, with its abundant energy resources, is a very good partner that China can get into an energy-trade relationship with. They both are against the US influence in the region. Sino-Russian relations are likely to remain stable in the short and medium term, based on a convergence of interests. The happy state of the relationship may end in the longer term when both side dont need eachother in economic terms. China-US and US -Russia relations are more competitive than cooperative. So there is a big struggle for energy among these three great states. Energy rich Central Asian states’ -Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan- more pragmatic policies make these trilateral relations more complex.

本研究嘗試以地緣政治研究途徑針對國際層面、國家層面來解釋俄烏天然氣爆發的深層政治因素與俄羅斯此作為的實際目的何在。 烏克蘭擁有黑海出海口，位居歐亞大陸中心，俄羅斯若控制了烏克蘭，便可直接與歐洲對話，因此烏克蘭對俄羅斯的戰略意義是不可忽視的。同時，2004年北約東擴後，烏克蘭是俄羅斯地緣安全的最後一道防線，尤申科加入北約之政策，自然招致莫斯科反彈。綜合以上因素，可以解釋出橙色革命後，俄羅斯與烏克蘭兩造於對外政策之矛盾，形成了天然氣衝突之背景。 從國際層面分析，長年依賴自俄羅斯進口之低廉能源導致烏國能源部門效率相對低落，加強了莫斯科對基輔的能源外交力度，故本文認為兩次天然氣衝突皆為俄羅斯藉由天然氣議題對烏克蘭施壓。儘管斷氣風波也招致歐盟抨擊，使得俄烏兩國國際形象大為受損；但短期來說，俄羅斯與歐盟的能源合作難以改變，但烏克蘭之能源過境地位則可能因為替代管線投入營運因素而受到弱化。 從國家層面分析，烏克蘭東部與南部多數人民支持親俄政權，西部多數人民則支持親西方政權，究其原因可分為：語言因素、宗教因素、民族因素、經濟因素、與歷史因素。本研究認為烏克蘭政治菁英之分歧導致政局動盪，同時，天然氣衝突給予不同政黨互相攻訐之議題，加上烏克蘭目前處於政治轉型之階段，以致於2006年至2008年爆發了多次政治危機。 2009年之天然氣協議提升了兩國交易透明度，然而烏克蘭之積欠天然氣債務問題仍為未知數，意味著未來俄羅斯依舊有再度對烏克蘭施壓之空間。 / In this study, I attempt to explain the political implications of natural gas conflicts between Russia and Ukraine at international and international level by means of geopolitical approach. Ukraine faces Black Sea and possesses central location in Euro-Asia continent. Russia has an initiative to intervene in European affairs if Ukraine is under its control. In a result, Ukraine is critical to Russia in its strategic layout. Meanwhile, after NATO Enlargement, Ukraine is the last defense boundary of Russia to ensure its geopolitical security. The policy of joining NATO under Yushchenko definitely brought Russia’s objections. It shows after Orange Revolution the discrepancy in foreign policy between Russia and Ukraine gave an incentive to natural gas conflicts. In the International system level, relying on gas imported from Russia at a low price led to relatively low-efficiency in Ukraine’s energy sections which strengthens the power of Russia’s energy diplomacy. Therefore, I believe the natural gas conflicts were aimed to put political pressure upon Ukraine. Although the interruptions brought about criticism from EC and caused great damage to the reputations of Russia and Ukraine, in the short term, it is unlikely to cease Russia-EC cooperation relationship in energy field. However, the status of Ukraine in energy transition could become less important due to the operations of alternative pipelines. In the state system level, most people in Eastern and Southern are in favor of pro-Russia parties or candidates and those in Western and Northern are in the opposite. There are five factors that led to its discrepancy: race, religion, language, economic, and history. The political unrest in Ukraine came from disagreements among elites and gas conflicts provided a pretext for them to attack their opponents. Additionally, this country was under political transformation. Because of these elements, Ukraine suffered from several political crises in the following three years since 2006. The new contract in 2009 provided a better transparency to Russia-Ukraine gas deal, but the problem of Ukraine’s gas debts was not yet dissolved. It suggests Russia is likely to put pressure upon Ukraine by means of energy diplomacy in the future.

冷戰結束之後，安全研究從「軍事安全」的傳統安全研究中解放出來，1990年代中期，西方學者使用「非傳統安全」一詞來擴大安全研究的範圍，「安全的威脅來源」從軍事戰略議題延伸到社會、經濟和環境議題；「安全的指涉對象」則從國家縱向擴張到地方政府、國際組織、非政府組織、社群和個人等不同層次的行為者。不同層次的行為者在不同的安全議題中有分歧的利益，保障國家層次的安全不見得就能保障其他層次的行為者安全，有時候國家甚至成為其他行為者的威脅來源。 能源安全作為安全議題，其本身也有傳統和非傳統的意涵。傳統的能源安全關注國家之間搶奪特定的資源是否可能導致衝突甚至戰爭，能源是國家衝突的根源，也是一國宰制他國的外交政策工具。非傳統的能源安全則著重在國家取得穩定的能源供給、減少依賴特定能源運輸通道以及單一進口來源之外，不同行為者的能源安全的政治社會面向、經濟面向和環境面向是否也兼顧。 在能源安全研究的脈絡下，本論文聚焦於2010年6月正式開工建設的中-緬原油和天然氣陸上跨國管線工程，探討此管線建設是否滿足了宏觀層次、中觀層次和微觀層次的行為者在不同問題領域的安全。以國家層次來說，中國政府試圖藉此陸上跨國管線確保原油運輸管道的多元化，減少麻六甲困境的威脅，麻六甲困境反映的不僅僅是能源安全，也是中國的經濟安全和政權安全；另外，管線建設也將帶動中國西南部的經濟發展，缺油少氣的雲南省將成為最大的受惠者。對於緬甸政府來說，中-緬原油和天然氣管線每年可以讓緬甸從中國取得豐厚的管道過境費、路權費、增值稅和購買天然氣的費用，緬甸政府也可從中獲得固定比例的原油和天然氣分流，中-緬能源開發合作也有助於中緬關係的發展。 跳脫國家和次國家行為者層次，中國石油天然氣公司在興建天然氣和原油管線時，是否也保障了當地社群和個人在不同領域的安全？緬甸政府派軍駐紮管線沿線保護管線不被破壞的同時，處於弱勢的個人和社群的基本權益是否在某種程度上被侵害？環境是否為一被漠視的安全指涉對象？本文將從能源安全的政治面向、社會面向、經濟面向、環境面向以及區域面向來分析並檢視這些非國家行為者的利益和安全，透過安全指涉對象的轉換來呈現管線工程的利與弊。

本文的研究目的第一是釐清能源在國際關係領域的相關議題：能源安全、能源地緣政治與對外能源政策等子議題的異同，從概念演變到局勢發展，以及個別國家的政策與成效；第二點是耙梳、彙整冷戰結束後，俄羅斯與歐洲（包括歐洲各國與歐洲聯盟）奠基於能源資源貿易關係上面一層的互賴關係，以及潛在的不穩定與衝突因素，藉由理解這個雙邊關係的發展與其未來的可能性，得以提供可能的預測與參考價值。 首先第一章是緒論，目的是解釋本文的章節架構；在第二章解釋能源安全理論與俄羅斯能源產業發展狀況；在第三章則以俄羅斯的角度看待它與前共產陣營國家之間的互動關係。第四章的主要內容則是以歐盟的角度出發，檢視歐盟與外方伙伴的互動協商過程。第五章的總結則評估雙方在能源與對外政策立場上的各自立場作為本文的結束。國家與國營能源公司是本文中最基本且主要的行為者，藉由評估他們在未來的發展方向，以及回顧過往的政策（能源政策與對外政策）成效與互動過程做為總結。 本文研究發現，鋪設能源管線、購買基礎設施的產權、以及開放油氣探勘權限等商業行為，在國家與國際組織的層級上成為地緣政治的槓桿，其結果是歐洲與歐亞大陸的能源市場整合成為一體，並在能源地緣政治上產生兩極對立體系。

中國於2000年首次明確提出企業「走出去」戰略，鼓勵並支持具比較優勢之國有與民營企業投資海外市場，使中國企業得以藉由對外直接投資活動，以國家機器作為後盾進入全球主要經濟市場，不僅可影響外國企業之經營運作、提升技術、掌握通路、獲取所需資源等，亦能有效結合經濟與政治實力，逐步豐厚中國之綜合國力，期能達到提升國際地位與成為世界大國之目標。 中國雖引進市場經濟體制，惟政治體制仍屬社會主義制度，由共產黨決定政府運作與經濟制度，國家機器對市場之干預程度遠較資本主義國家既深且廣；本論文為進一步瞭解中國的國家機器如何主導企業對外直接投資之運作、發展狀況及其影響力，係以國際政治經濟學之國家資本主義作為研究途徑，分析中國國家機器在其對外直接投資活動的作用及影響力，並以英國學者John Dunning的投資發展階段論，將中國對外直接投資之成效置於全球脈絡中進行比較分析，俾能歸納發現中國對外直接投資模式的特色。 經比較分析中國整體及企業個案之對外直接投資發展狀況與影響力，可以發現，中國對外直接投資能力逐漸增強，已具經濟自主能力，刻正由邊陲國家逐漸邁向核心國家。整體而論，中國對外直接投資發展模式與世界主要國家確有所差異：相同之處在於，中國與各國之對外直接投資活動均與國內經濟結構具高度正相關，亦即經濟發展到達一定水準後，才會出現頻密的對外直接投資活動及成果；相異之處在於，各國之民營企業已具國際競爭力並在對外直接投資活動扮演重要角色，惟中國的國有企業較民營企業更具對外直接投資之優勢與能力，投資動機主要係依據國家政策及經濟發展需要，而中國的民營企業則因規模較小，國際競爭力仍有待提升，目前在全球市場尚未形成可觀的影響力。 / For the very first time in 2000, China proposed a clear strategy to have corporations ‘going out,’ encouraging and supporting competent state-owned and private enterprises to invest overseas market. With the backup of the state, this policy enables Chinese corporations to get into the global economic market by means of outward foreign direct investment. In this way, they can affect the operation and management of foreign enterprises so as to advance their own technologies, control channels, and to acquire necessary resources. Moreover, they may combine economic power with political strength effectively, enhancing the comprehensive national power of China gradually so that China may increase its international status to become a superpower in the world. Though market economy is introduced in China, its political system, socialism, remains the same. The Communist government makes the decision concerning its operation and the economic system. In other words, the intervention of the state in the market is furtherer and wider than that of capitalist countries. In order to understand how the state controls enterprises in terms of the operation of outward foreign direct investment, its development, and the influence, the study adopts state capitalism of international political economy as the approach to analyze the function and influence of the state government on outward foreign direct investment. Moreover, the study is aimed at concluding the characteristics of Chinese pattern of outward foreign direct investment by adopting the British economist, John Dunning’s, the theory of investment－development cycle to compare and analyze the outcome of Chinese outward foreign direct investment in the scope of the whole world. After comparing and analyzing how the china overall and enterprises case about development and influence of outward foreign direct investment, it is discovered that China’s ability of outward foreign direct investment is increasing. China has the ability of economic autonomy and is transforming from a country of periphery to a core country. Overall, the development pattern of China’s outward foreign direct investment is indeed different from other major countries. The similarity lies in that there is a significantly positive relationship between the outward foreign direct investment of China and other countries and their domestic economic structure. That is to say, when the development of economy has reached a certain level, frequent outward foreign direct investment and its effects will then appear. On the other hand, the difference lies in that private enterprises in other countries are internationally competent and play an important role in outward foreign direct investment. However, in China, state-owned enterprises have more advantages and capabilities than private enterprises in terms of outward foreign direct investment. The motivation of investment is determined by national policy and the demands of economic development. Moreover, due to the scale being small, private enterprises in China need to improve their international competitiveness. Therefore, they don’t exert as much influence in the global market.