Am of the thesis is to analyze the development of the relations between NATO and Russia since the eastern enlargement of NATO in 2004 until the formation of a New Strategic Concept in 2010 with an emphasis on theenergy diplomacy of Russia in the post-Soviet region.The functioning of Russian energy diplomacy is illustrated by the example of two Ukrainian gas wars. Objective of the thesis is to analyze how is Russia using its energy resources at the bilateral level (especially in the Eastern European region) and its influence towards NATO. There is an instrumental nature in understanding of the energy policy by Russia, which subsequently affects the potential expansion of NATO in the post-Soviet space. The conclusion is that European NATO and the U.S. should seek to maximize the diversification of energy resources to stabilize their negotiating position with the Russians.

Japan is the third energy consumption country in the world (next to the United States, and China), and the lowest to its energy self-sufficiency among advanced countries. Japan is aware of its dependence on the unstable Middle East for the energy security. Therefore, to ensure the Japanese having reliable supply of energy, become a vital issue not only to its economic development but also its national security. Japanese government attempted to change the condition of their vulnerability in regard to energy security and dependence on foreign energy. Japanese energy diplomacy primarily hopes to guarantee their energy security. Japan¡¦s energy security relied on other countries since postwar was an indisputable fact. Japan is unable to control energy security which is not surprising. However, Japan is the second largest economy country in the world, therefore, Japan's energy security strategy and concrete achievement, immediately impacts on Japan's politics and economic performance. Consequently, it brings a significant influence on the international politics and economics development. After postwar, Japan's energy security relied on the protective umbrella that U.S. provided. Two main constructions are: the maintenance of U.S.-Japan security alliance and the U.S. Pacific fleet control the sea lines of communication (SLOCs). The world energy domain changed rapidly since the cold war was ended. The Soviet Union contains rich reserved energy and opens to the capitalism market. This is a breakthrough opportunity for Japan especially when it is in an energy security dilemma. In addition, Chinese economic has been rising in recent years, the initiation energy is in demanding, that also impacts greatly on the energy market among Asian regions. As for Japan, its deficiency in energy resources becomes a numerous threat. Therefore, Japan's energy security problem not only affects the Asian regions, but also breaks that existing international power balance.

近年來，中共經濟持續高速發展受到世人的高度矚目，亦被國際公認為崛起的大國。但由於中共生產的石油無法滿足經濟成長需求，自西元1993年成為石油淨進口國後，西元2004年更超越日本成為第二大能源進口國，這成為中共經濟成長甚至是國家安定最大的隱憂。在無法自給自足的情況下，中共採取一系列包含「走出去」等能源供應多元化方面的能源外交策略以確保其油源供應穩定，以支撐其快速的經濟發展狀況。 中共與非洲國家在政治上保有良好的傳統友誼，而非洲豐富的資源能彌補中共能源供給缺口，並且非洲擁有適合中共產品生存的市場，這使得非洲產油國成為中共能源外交的主要對象。在手段上，中共重視與非洲在政治、安全、經濟等方面之合作關係，為求實質加強與非洲合作關係，以利能源外交在非洲國家的拓展。 因此，本文嘗試在經濟、政治與安全領域，以文獻分析法來探討中共對非洲能源外交手段與影響，及中共對非洲能源外交之成果與未來趨勢。 關鍵字：中共、非洲、能源外交 / In recent years, the rapid economic development of the People’s Republic of China(PRC)has caught the attention of the world and is recognized as a rising power in the world. However, the oil production of the PRC does not meet the need of economic growth. China has imported oil since 1993 and has surpassed Japan to become the second largest energy importing country since 2004, which is the biggest threat to economic growth and national security and stability of the PRC. Facing the challenge of being self-sufficient, the PRC has adopted a series of diversified energy supply and energy diplomacy strategy, including “going global”, to ensure a stable supply of oil source and to support the rapid economic development. The PRC has maintained a good political friendship with African countries. The rich resources in Africa can make up for the energy supply shortage of the PRC. African market is necessary for the survival of Made-in-China products, which makes the African oil-producing countries the main objects of the PRC’s energy diplomacy. In terms of means, the PRC values the collaboration with African nations in politics, security, and economy; also, it strengthens cooperation with African nations to facilitate energy diplomacy. Therefore, this study is to explore the energy diplomatic means and impact of the PRC on Africa with the Literature Analysis Method; also, the achievement of the PRC in the energy diplomacy with Africa and the future trend is discussed. Key words: People’s Republic of China (the PRC), Africa, Energy Diplomacy

本文從中日雙方能源安全環境出發，首先探討中共能源外交戰略的背景因素和佈局策略，接著從日本因素介入入中共實行戰略的過程，觀察日本所造成的影響，最後再以中共對於日本的政策回應探討雙方這一連串的互動過程，其所蘊藏的意涵為何，並探討雙方解決能源問題的思維與方式之可能形式。 1993年中國大陸由石油淨出口國轉為石油淨進口國起，原油進口依存度逐年快速增長，中共官方因此必須向外尋找更加穩定及更多樣化的供應管道，以因應國內經濟發展需要。故為了維護本身的資源安全，「能源外交戰略」於90年代中期開始迅速實施，這包含了對內的能源戰略以及對外的資源外交、軍事合作等兩方面行動。 日本長期為世界第二大石油消費國（在2004年才被中國大陸超越），和中國大陸一樣對於海外時有著高度的依賴，甚至猶有過之(日本國內生產石油僅能供應總需求量0.2%)，並且因為其經濟實力所支撐的外交能力和軍事能力，是中國大陸在亞洲當中經濟實力最強大的競爭對手，因此日本對於中共在亞洲區域內能源外交的成敗影響能力，自然也就遠超過其他鄰國。於是日本基於能源地緣政治考量，在陸上管線和東海油氣田兩方面著手介入了中共能源外交戰略，造成了兩者的相互競爭，而中共用阻止日本「入常」和派遣艦隊巡邏和潛艇偵察的政策回應，對中日雙方帶來的是更進一步的矛盾。 雙方在1970年代曾有過短暫的石油合作先例，但在目前的權力結構以及難以克服的歷史恩怨等兩大難題影響下，雙方的競爭面大於合作面，這將不利於區域的和平穩定並反而增加整個區域維護能源安全成本的上升，故唯有雙方跳脫出成見，才能冷靜的共同解決能源問題，如此才符合區域整體利益。

近年中國大陸在全球各地簽訂原油供應與相關原油探勘、開採合約，引起部分西方國家對此不滿，中國大陸能源外交的本質、目的、型態與手段亦成為學政界辯論的焦點，歐洲國家更將其對非洲的能源外交批評為新殖民主義，但中國大陸學者則認為僅止於重商主義。本文的研究目的在於檢視中國大陸外交政策屬於古典或新現實主義、能源是否為中國大陸對非洲外交政策的重心，與其對非洲能源外交的型態究竟是重商主義或新殖民主義；並回顧現實主義、國際政治經濟學、新殖民主義等相關理論，建構不同指標以檢驗本文的研究假設。 本文的研究成果可歸納為四個面向：其一，中國大陸對非洲政策為相當典型的新現實主義風格，追求優於非洲地主國的相對利得、政策佈局亦受國際體系權力結構制約；其次，能源為目前中國大陸對非洲政策的重心，中國大陸企業對非洲的投資亦以能源為主要考量；第三，包括中海油、中石油與中石化在內等三家中國大陸石油企業在非洲的投資以原油的探勘、開採權為主，符合其國內能源安全政策辯論的結果；第四，中國大陸在非洲的能源投資實無助於非洲國家的經濟發展，但亦無延滯非洲國家經濟發展，藉此擴張中國大陸在非洲的政經影響力的目的在內。 / In recent years, Mainland China has tried to sign oil supply and related exploration and exploitation contracts around the world, which has caused some western countries dissatisfaction. The essence, purpose, and means of Mainland China’s energy diplomacy have become the focus of debate in the academic and political circles. Some European countries even judged that Mainland China’s energy diplomacy toward Africa is a kind of neo-colonialism, but scholars from Mainland China consider it as mercantilism. The purposes of this thesis are to examine three assumptions: whether Mainland China’s foreign policy belongs to classical realism or neo realism; whether energy is the core of Mainland China’s foreign policy toward Africa; and whether the type of energy diplomacy toward Africa is neo- colonialism or mercantilism. The related theories including realism, international political economy and Neo-colonialism will also be reviewed of this thesis in order to establish four dimensions and twelve indictors to examine my assumptions. The conclusions of this thesis could be summarized into four dimensions: Firstly, Mainland China’s Africa policy is the typical neo-realism, seeking the better relative gain than African countries, and its policy arrangement is restricted by the power structure of the international system. Secondly, energy, especially oil, is the core concern of the Mainland China’s African policy. The investments of Mainland China’s enterprises in Africa also take energy as the main consideration. Thirdly, investments derived from three oil enterprises including China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (SINOPEC) focus on the right of oil exploration and exploitation, which conforms to the result of its domestic debates about energy security. Finally, Mainland China’s investments toward Africa can not help the economic development in Africa, but will not slow down the Africa’s economic development nor extend its ability to influence Africa.

中國的崛起如同現實主義對於國家間衝突的解釋，亦即國際間對於中國威脅的廣泛論述，不論其威脅是否真實存在，其對國際間的影響已是不可否認的事實。1993年中國成為石油淨進口國，這是自1963年以來中國首次出現的石油赤字，宣示了中國石油供應自給自足局面的結束，也開啟了中國能源政策對外擴張的開始。 中國正由計劃經濟朝向其所謂的社會主義市場經濟轉型，對於在2050年達到中等發達國家水平的目標而言，現階段的發展將是一個重要的轉折。中國的經濟發展計畫，預約了對於石油的消費，其能源消費結構的錯置與供應來源的單一性以及潛在的脆弱性，對於中國的能源安全來說無疑是一個潛在的負面因素。尤其是當增加石油進口成為解決中國能源安全矛盾的必要路徑時，對外的能源政策將是確保中國能源安全是否穩定的關鍵點。 國家為了能源的安全獲得確保，必然發展對內保護對外擴張的能源政策，尤其是仰類進口能源的國家，其對外的能源政策將更具侵略性。中國的能源安全戰略圍繞在多元化為中心的概念展開，包括能源的來源、種類、路線以及運輸與獲得方式的多元化。對內，中國透過多元管道強化本身的能源安全鏈，避免對於進口石油產生過度依賴。對外，中國領導階層積極的出訪，綜合外交的力量推展「能源外交」，全方位的在全球佈局，突破大國對中國軟性的圍堵，除了獲得實質的石油收益外，也開啟了中國外交的新趨向。 / China rises abruptly symbolizes the explanation of realism is on a collision between the countries. Meanwhile the world make a popular discussion about they were threatened by China. Whatever it exist or inexistence, but it definitely influence the whole world. Until 1993 China became the petroleum importer that caused first deficit in China since 1963. It announced to end in self-contained petroleum and commence opening the extensive of energy resources policy. The China is going to plan the economics that go forward and change into socialist marketing. For the 2050, they’ll expect to achieve the goal of middle-development country, and a turning point in the developing at this most important stage now. In their economics- development planning which bespeak the petrol expense is error of structures of resources expense, single-supply source and potential frailty. It was without doubt that potential negative factors for safety of energy resources of China. When they increase to import the petroleum, it becomes to solve the safety of energy resources was confusing with necessary method. An external policy of energy resources will ensure China to connect the safety of energy resources if it's stable. They need safety of energy resources was assured so that they must develop the policies are internal protection and external extension. Especially the country depend on the resources imported, the external policy will more invasion. The safe policies of resources are around the conception of diversity are origin, kinds, channels, transportation and so on. For domestic policies, China use the diverse channels to strong the energy in Security and avoid to over rely on the imported petroleum. For foreign policies, China leaderships are highly active to make an official visit and diplomatic power combined to promote the “Energy diplomacy”. They operated the overall strategy of global and broke through soft containment of super state to them. Therefore China not only gains much benefit of petroleum virtually but opens the new tending of diplomacy.

能源是經濟和社會發展的重要基礎和戰略資源。近百年中，能源安全不斷的被各國列為首要問題。隨著中國改革開放，國家經濟不斷成長，成為世界經濟大國，其能源的需求量日趨增加，從自給自足到至今依賴進口，使中國將能源外交列為外交戰略的主要目標，藉由走出去得戰略，積極到海外尋找能源。在這種情況下，能源外交顯然將成為繼大國外交與周邊外交後，中國外交政策的第三個重要環節。 開發中國家具有豐富的能源，再加上中國以開發中國家自居，因此開發中國家在中國的外交政策上，佔有重要地位，且可配合中國國家經濟發展。中國藉由其與開發中國家建立並維持良好的外交關係，以為中國尋找迫切需要的能源。 中國積極透過多邊組織或是雙邊接觸，向非洲、拉丁美洲尋找油源。中國能源問題不僅關係著中國的經濟發展，在擴展能源佈局全球的同時，也引起國際的注意，意涵著這是國際能源戰略問題，更是國際外交爭議性議題。 中國為化解能源進口來源過於集中的風險，於是拉美及非洲成為中國石油進口的戰略來源地。中國將觸角伸向拉美及非洲地區，其中對委內瑞拉及蘇丹這兩個國家最為積極，近期拉美的左傾化浪潮，委內瑞拉查韋斯政權與美國對抗，以及蘇丹有關達富爾的人權問題，使得中國的能源外交被國際社會說成與美國分庭抗禮及罔顧人權，造成中國受國際社會的譴責。 本文研究發現，中國與開發中國家能源外交有助於提升中國國際影響力，「能源競爭」與「權力競爭」是中國對非洲及拉丁美洲的能源外交目的。中國的能源外交對各地區之目的有所不同，不一定都是以獲取能源為主要目的，有時權力競爭反而佔據相當的份量，即中國能源外交之目的有時為了能源競爭，此時著重於取得能源；但有時卻不是為了能源競爭，能源本身不是目的，而只是工具，其真正目的是權力競爭。 / Energy is an important strategic resource and the critical basis of economic and social development. During the last hundred years, energy security has been identified as primary problem. With its successful open-door reform, China became the world economic giant of the constantly growing up of the national economy. With the increasing needs of oil energy day by day, China was transferred from an oil self-sufficient country to an oil import one. Now, one goal of the diplomatic strategy is the energy diplomacy. With the strategy of “going out” looking for the energy abroad, China is searching for oil resource actively. In this situation, the diplomacy of energy will obviously become the third important aspect of the China’s foreign policy, in addition to major power diplomacy and diplomacy with neighboring countries. Developing countries with the abundant energy, plus China itself poses as a developing country, developing countries occupies an important position in Chinese foreign policy in general, China's national economic development in particular. For the purpose of acquisition of oil energy, China has to maintain actively good diplomatic relations for developing countries. So China looks for the oil source to Africa, Latin America through both multilateral organizations and bilateral relations. The question of the Chinese energy is not merely only concerning the economic development of China, but also its global strategy of energy acquisition. So that it has attracted international concerns and became a controversial issue of international diplomacy. China has made every effort to reduce the risk that the import of energy resources overly concentrates, and, consequently, Latin America and Africa become the strategic source of China's petroleum imports. China stretches the feeler to Latin America and Africa, among them the most positive to these are two countries, i.e., Venezuela and Sudan. The left-leaning political tide in Latin America recently, the regime of Chavez in Venezuela confronting with U.S.A., and the human rights issue of Sudan, China’s energy diplomacy is to be condemned by the international community, because of deliberately confrontation with the United States and ignorance of human rights. This study discovers that the energy diplomacy will be helpful for China’s influences in the international arena and its major purpose is for either energy or power in Africa and Latin America. The Chinese diplomacy of energy varies in terms of geographic factor. Sometimes, Chinese energy diplomacy is for energy acquisition so as to resolve its development needs, sometimes for power and energy is only an instrument.

本研究嘗試以地緣政治研究途徑針對國際層面、國家層面來解釋俄烏天然氣爆發的深層政治因素與俄羅斯此作為的實際目的何在。 烏克蘭擁有黑海出海口，位居歐亞大陸中心，俄羅斯若控制了烏克蘭，便可直接與歐洲對話，因此烏克蘭對俄羅斯的戰略意義是不可忽視的。同時，2004年北約東擴後，烏克蘭是俄羅斯地緣安全的最後一道防線，尤申科加入北約之政策，自然招致莫斯科反彈。綜合以上因素，可以解釋出橙色革命後，俄羅斯與烏克蘭兩造於對外政策之矛盾，形成了天然氣衝突之背景。 從國際層面分析，長年依賴自俄羅斯進口之低廉能源導致烏國能源部門效率相對低落，加強了莫斯科對基輔的能源外交力度，故本文認為兩次天然氣衝突皆為俄羅斯藉由天然氣議題對烏克蘭施壓。儘管斷氣風波也招致歐盟抨擊，使得俄烏兩國國際形象大為受損；但短期來說，俄羅斯與歐盟的能源合作難以改變，但烏克蘭之能源過境地位則可能因為替代管線投入營運因素而受到弱化。 從國家層面分析，烏克蘭東部與南部多數人民支持親俄政權，西部多數人民則支持親西方政權，究其原因可分為：語言因素、宗教因素、民族因素、經濟因素、與歷史因素。本研究認為烏克蘭政治菁英之分歧導致政局動盪，同時，天然氣衝突給予不同政黨互相攻訐之議題，加上烏克蘭目前處於政治轉型之階段，以致於2006年至2008年爆發了多次政治危機。 2009年之天然氣協議提升了兩國交易透明度，然而烏克蘭之積欠天然氣債務問題仍為未知數，意味著未來俄羅斯依舊有再度對烏克蘭施壓之空間。 / In this study, I attempt to explain the political implications of natural gas conflicts between Russia and Ukraine at international and international level by means of geopolitical approach. Ukraine faces Black Sea and possesses central location in Euro-Asia continent. Russia has an initiative to intervene in European affairs if Ukraine is under its control. In a result, Ukraine is critical to Russia in its strategic layout. Meanwhile, after NATO Enlargement, Ukraine is the last defense boundary of Russia to ensure its geopolitical security. The policy of joining NATO under Yushchenko definitely brought Russia’s objections. It shows after Orange Revolution the discrepancy in foreign policy between Russia and Ukraine gave an incentive to natural gas conflicts. In the International system level, relying on gas imported from Russia at a low price led to relatively low-efficiency in Ukraine’s energy sections which strengthens the power of Russia’s energy diplomacy. Therefore, I believe the natural gas conflicts were aimed to put political pressure upon Ukraine. Although the interruptions brought about criticism from EC and caused great damage to the reputations of Russia and Ukraine, in the short term, it is unlikely to cease Russia-EC cooperation relationship in energy field. However, the status of Ukraine in energy transition could become less important due to the operations of alternative pipelines. In the state system level, most people in Eastern and Southern are in favor of pro-Russia parties or candidates and those in Western and Northern are in the opposite. There are five factors that led to its discrepancy: race, religion, language, economic, and history. The political unrest in Ukraine came from disagreements among elites and gas conflicts provided a pretext for them to attack their opponents. Additionally, this country was under political transformation. Because of these elements, Ukraine suffered from several political crises in the following three years since 2006. The new contract in 2009 provided a better transparency to Russia-Ukraine gas deal, but the problem of Ukraine’s gas debts was not yet dissolved. It suggests Russia is likely to put pressure upon Ukraine by means of energy diplomacy in the future.

冷戰結束後，以往來自敵國或他國以軍事、政治和外交等面向，對國家安全（national security）及人類生存構成影響的「傳統安全」（Traditional Security）威脅因素，已隨著全球化帶來的效應產生轉變，全球面臨非傳統安全（Non-Traditional Security）的挑戰，包括經濟安全、金融安全、環境安全、能源安全、文化安全等威脅均大幅上升，其中能源是工業建設、經濟活動與國家發展不可或缺的戰略資源，是國家發展環節中最要要的關鍵，而石油即將耗竭也是全球將面臨的嚴重課題，近百年來因爭奪石油引發多次的區域衝突，並擴散成為全球的能源危機，石油已成為影響國家安全的最直接戰略威脅。 1970年代的能源危機使美國警覺石油的重要戰略地位，長期以來透過其國際強權的地位，積極對全球主要的石油生產區採取戰略佈局；1970年代後期起，中國的改革獲得耀眼的成效，經濟的成長帶動能源的龐大需求，1993年中國更成為石油淨進口國。中國逐漸正視到石油將是關係未來經濟持續成長的關鍵，於是挾以經濟、外交、政治等手段向中東、中亞、拉丁美洲乃至於非洲積極佈局展開油源開發觸角，引發西方國家對「中國能源威脅論」之隱憂。 石油已經成為維繫國家穩定發展的重要因素，石油安全既是經濟問題，更是政治問題、國家安全的核心。因此，爭奪石油成為地區衝突的導火線，隨著中國經濟崛起後政經力量的茁壯，中國透過各種手段在主要產油國甚至美國國內相關企業著力日深，已對美國的利益產生嚴重威脅，中、美都在極力的爭取石油主導權，希望透過石油的控制力量，從而獲得對全球經濟的操控能力。 石油安全往往牽動國際政治問題，愈發凸顯石油在國家安全戰略地位的重要性。長期仰賴石油進口，對我國國家安全容易受國際局勢影響，中美雙方在各種國際活動中，因石油產生的競合關係，恐令我國隨中美的互動關係產生轉變，因此對中美在石油安全競合的過程中，其雙方的發展與效應及對我國國家安全的影響，值得我們加以觀察與探討。

近年來，在全球氣候變遷與化石燃料價格高漲的影響之下，節能減碳成了各國政府能源政策的圭臬。正因如此，核能重新被視為一種可行的替代能源，獲得長足的發展。但這股核能復興潮並沒有持續太久，2011年日本福島核事故的發生，使全球核能產業陷入了新一波的低潮。這場核能浩劫，與25年前在前蘇聯發生的車諾比核事故如出一轍，都影響了許多國家在核能政策上的選擇。 本研究針對俄羅斯核能產業之發展進行探討，以了解其核能利用上的立場及發展策略。特別是在2011年日本福島核災後，俄羅斯在核能政策上是否有所轉變。值得注意的是，俄羅斯國家原子能公司(Rosatom)，作為國營之核能企業，展現了其企圖心，矢言成為新一代的全球核能復興先驅。 本研究認為，俄羅斯仍不會放棄核能的利用，而且也將持續進行核能復興的政策路線，尋求擴大在全球核電市場上的影響力。核能對俄羅斯而言，除了經濟方面的利益外，同時也兼具了政治、能源安全上的意涵。除非未來科技進步，足以發展出一種高效率同時兼顧生態發展的發電方式，否則近期內俄羅斯的核能發展現狀將不會有太大的改變。 / In recent years, under the influence of global climate change and high fossil fuel prices, carbon reduction has become a model as energy policy for many governments. Because of that, nuclear energy was re-considered a viable alternative energy source, and developed rapidly. But this trend of "nuclear renaissance" did not last too long, due to Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan in 2011, the global nuclear industry fell into another serious decline. Just like Chernobyl nuclear accident that occurred 25 years ago in former Soviet Union, This nuclear catastrophe have affected many countries in nuclear energy policies. In this study, we discussed the development of Russia's nuclear industry in order to understand its position on nuclear energy and development strategies. Particularly, we would like to see if there is a significant change in Russia's nuclear energy policy after Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. It is noteworthy that the State Atomic Energy Corporation Rosatom, as a state-owned nuclear company, demonstrated its ambition, and vowed to be a pioneer of global nuclear renaissance in a whole new era. In this study, we concluded that Russia will not give up nuclear energy, but also continue its nuclear renaissance energy policy routes, seeking to expand influence in the global nuclear power market. In addition to economic benefits, for Russia, nuclear energy also means both the political and energy security implications. Unless the technological progress in the future that is enough to develop a high-efficiency and ecological way of power generation, otherwise, Russia's nuclear energy development situation will not have a significant change in the near term.