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石油在20世紀不僅取代煤碳成為全球主要燃料，且是全球重要的工業原料，廣泛的影響全世界經濟活動，成為各國經濟發展最為依賴的資源。但是石油為不可再生的能源，全球分布又極不平均，世界各國為控制或爭取石油資源，長期以來不僅造成國際政治緊張情勢，影響國際外交局勢與國家發展，更凸顯石油問題的重要性。2003年以來國際油價雖持續上揚，但全球經濟成長仍然強勁，顯示其所造成的衝擊尚不若過去兩次石油危機時期嚴重，但由於全球短時間內無法擺脫對石油的依賴，且影響國際油價上漲的因素又十分複雜，因此高油價背後所隱藏的供給、需求問題，成為值得深入探討的議題。 　　有鑒於國際石油問題的對經濟及永續發展有其重要性，本文以經濟面觀點，針對國際石油供給、需求、及相關問題進行分析。本研究主要發現為，全球石油蘊藏有限且供給不穩定，在全球石油需求將繼續增加的趨勢下，追求石油安全成為石油消費國家的重要政策；而經濟能源供需情形與產業結構上的差異，是造成2003年以來高油價與1970年代石油危機不同程度經濟衝擊的主要原因，且高油價對於全球各地區經濟產生不同程度的影響；如何因應21世紀高油價時代，以及當代面臨石油使用所造成的全球氣候暖化問題，均成為考驗各國能源發展最重要的課題，而在高油價及氣候暖化的雙重壓力下，已促使替代能源或新能源的開發蓬勃發展。藉由前述對於國際石油與替代能源發展情勢之分析，台灣在面臨國際石油問題之因應，本文提出可參採建議為，因應持續高油價可能引發的民生物價及經濟的衝擊，開放並鼓勵國內廠商赴海外合作共同探勘油田，重新檢討石油安全存量，積極開放油品市場，加速「再生能源發展條例」的立法。 / The greater part of the world’s remaining reserves of petroleum lie in the unstable Middle East region, while global petroleum needs are likely to continue to grow steadily in the future because the emerging giants of he world economy will require ever more energy for the unprecedented pace of economic development. In addition, environmental issues, a growing concern over last three decades, makes petroleum problem more complicated. With a view on economic analysis, the main findings of this research are the supply of global petroleum is unstable and finite, and the demand of global petroleum will continue to grow steadily. To solve this problem, all countries are searching for petroleum security and alternative energy. The prices of petroleum still matter to the health of the world economy, while the impact of high price of petroleum seems less injure than before. Compared to 1970s, the oil crisis, as a result of the oil supply disruptions, resulted in economic downturn, it now contains different issues both in demand and supply which present particular challenges that influence energy agendas. According to these findings, we suggest our government should adequately reflect the impact of high price of petroleum, encourage firms to cooperate internationally in explore petroleum abroad, review strategic petroleum reserve, and accelerate to legislate on regulations of development for renewable energy.

學界常以中共自改革開放以來經濟快速發展，而造成石油的短缺問題，但經本研究透過石油的地緣政治形勢、影響中共石油安全戰略的因素、中共在石油安全戰略的布局、以及未來可能發展趨勢等，主、客觀的環境逐一剖析檢驗。發現中共並非單純以石油需求為單一的經濟問題，而涉及軍事、政治及外交等各個戰略層面。在中共開展能原外交之際，其背後所隱藏的動機與企圖，非常值得吾人所關注與省思。 自1993年中共成為石油淨進口國，且為因應經濟的快速發展，自產又嚴重不足，然而直到2001才開始重視石油安全的問題，因此，到處找油已成為中共近期對外戰略之重心，從中東、中亞、非洲、拉丁美洲凡有油之處皆見其跡。由於石油是有限資源，在近期內也無法研發出完全能夠取代石油的能源。因此，中共到處找油、搶油，已引起國際間的關切，「中國能源威脅論」也甚囂塵上，致而受到世界大國的制約與競逐，如美國、歐盟、日本等國。中共在石油安全上面臨內、外在壓力的情況下，如何突破困境，確實達到其提升國際地位，躋身世界強國之目的，仍待觀察。

摘 要 隨著經濟發展和人均收入水平的提高，中國的石油消費逐年增加，從1993年起成為石油淨進口國後，石油的對外依存度即逐年升高，直至2003年更成為世界第二大石油進口國和消費國。由於石油屬國家戰略物資，所以石油供應安全已成為影響中國經濟崛起和國家發展的戰略問題。由於持續的經濟發展對中國而言，對內是維繫共產政權，爭取民眾對於一黨專政政治體制認同主要法器，對外更是緩和與週邊國家關係，反制西方國家和平演變長期戰略的主要對策，所以能源問題不僅關係其經濟的興衰，更觸國內政治與國際關係的穩定。但中國現階段能源中的主項―石油，不但內部有油源枯竭、對外依存度過高問題，更有來自外部的油價飆漲、通路安全脆弱、油源遭大國牽制等諸多問題，使得石油安全形勢更顯嚴峻。 中國為解決現存石油安全問題，所研提出的戰略框架主要係以「收支系統」、「運儲體系」與「替代開發」三大安全架構組成，此三大架構主要政策內涵括：加強國內石油勘探開發，開發利用天然氣，實行進口原油多元化，「走出去」開發海外資源，建立國家石油儲備，節約用油並開發油氣替代能源等，進一步擴大能源貿易和投資的開放程度，充分利用國內外兩種資源、兩個市場，構築新世紀中國能源安全體系等等。 中國目前雖積極推行既定石油安全戰略，但預期未來仍將揹負政府職能不彰、國企壟斷、低耗能產業發展不易等內部包袱隱憂及外部的國際市場競爭、美國地緣戰略包圍、通路安全威脅、與南海爭議等等諸多問題與挑戰。然就國際體系而言，若單以國際間權力平衡角度觀之，中國不斷對外積極要油，除導致國際石油油價節節上揚外，亦將使國際石油競爭愈加白熱化；惟若在經濟全球化利益臍帶的連動因素牽引下，中國的石油安全戰略應可供給支援國內經濟發展最低要求準位，因而對其戰略發展可視為成功。 最後本文認為，中國未來石油戰略發展對外政策近程仍是以爭取傳統中東油源區穩定供給為主要目標，中程則以爭取與俄羅斯遠東及中亞□海地區合作為主要著演、長程目標則覬覦東海及東南海域油區的爭奪與開發。另從國家間權力平衡的本質與經濟全球化的必然發展，導出未來油源控制國與中國在石油供給間所形成「門派師徒」模型，並從此模型中，預判未來各油源控制國對中國將是採「互利不互信、掌握制油權」的姿態反應，而中國則以「擴大合作面，增強影響力」相對，並且在國家追求利益的前提下，為確保其能源版圖的完整，在跨世紀後必然邁向遠洋建軍戰備，以軍事大國的姿態，爭取維護石油供需平衡之主導權。 / Though China has actively promoted the oil security strategy, it will face many internal and external problems and challenges such as inefficient bureaucracy, monopolization of states-owned enterprises, difficulty of developing low energy-consuming industry, competition from international markets, America's geographic strategic containment, conveyance threat, and South China Sea disputes. In the view of the balance of international powers, that China seeks for foreign oil supply causes not only the increase of the international oil price, but also the keen competition of oil obtaining. However, from the angle of economic globalization, China's oil security strategy could have met its lowest demand of domestic economy development, and can be regarded as a success in terms of its strategic development. The conclusion of this research is: In the short term, the Middle East is still the first priority for China to obtain the oil supply; in the middle term, China will strive for cooperation with Russia and the central Asia; and in the long term, China will covet the oil field in the Eastern Sea and the Southeast Sea. In addition, from the nature of international power balance and the development of the economical globalization, we propose the “Master-Disciple model.” With this model, we forecast that the attitude of oil supply countries to China will be “mutual benefit but not mutual trust, and to control the supremacy of oil supply.” On the other side, the response of China will be “to expand the cooperative scope and influence.” Under the condition to pursue its national benefits, China will be heading for the military preparation toward the blue sea and fighting for the leading role to balance the oil supply and demand as a military powder in order to completely control the oil supply. With the economic development and the average income increase, China's oil consumption has been growing year by year. Ever since it became an oil net import country in 1993, china's dependence on foreign supply has been rising annually; till 2003. China had became the second largest oil importing and consuming country in the world. Since the oil is a. strategic material, the oil supply security has become a strategic issue which affects China's economic growth and national development. To china, sustainable economic development is not only the tool to maintain the communist regime and earn the recognition from the public for the mono-party political system, but also a strategy to ease the tense relationship with its neighboring countries and defend itself from the peaceful reforming strategy implemented by the western countries. However, the problems such as China's domestic oil exhaustion, high dependence on foreign supply and international skyrocketing oil price, the vulnerable conveyance; and the oil source controlled by the super powers have severely endangered china's oil security. To solve the existing oil security problems, China has built the strategic framework consisted of three security components: Revenue and Expenditure System, Conveyance and Storage System, Substitute Development, to reinforce oil exploration, exploit and make use of nature gas, import the crude from diversified countries, exploit foreign resources, build national oil-bearing structure, use oil carefully and develop substitute energy, expand energy trading and investment, and fully utilize The two resources and markets of domestic and overseas, so as to help China build the energy security system in the new era.

中共石油安全對外依存度升高，並制約著中共經濟與綜合國力的發展。隨著中國經濟高速成長，石油需求缺口持續擴大，石油供需嚴重失衡，造成中國的不安全感。而中國石油安全困境，具體體現在自給能力不足、進口來源和管道單一、供需不對稱等幾個面向。中亞國家之所以吸引中國，係因中國在中亞具有地緣優勢，且該地區石油是世界第三大石油蘊藏區，對還處在重大轉型期的中亞各國而言，國際力量紛紛介入，石油資源成為其對外發展的條件，也是應對當前全球化衝擊的必要選項。因此，石油安全將成為中國及中亞國家與大國間相互關係發展，最重要的決定因素。 中共在中亞地區的石油安全戰略，主要在彌補石油缺口，確保石油供應安全。本文旨在從「地緣政治學」的視角，分析探討中國及中亞的石油安全形勢、地緣政治、中共的石油安全戰略內涵、佈局與實踐及未來可能面臨的機遇與挑戰等議題。而中國在中亞的石油安全戰略，係以外交為手段，上海合作組織為平臺，輔以敦親睦鄰政策及地緣優勢，建立中國陸路石油供應路徑，期以分散石油供給集中並突破海上運油風險的制約。 中亞因其重要的地緣戰略位置和能源經濟價值以及政經情勢的複雜性，而成為歐亞大陸中心一個敏感地區。因此，中亞諸國採取門戶開放及平衡外交策略，造成世界各主要戰略力量進入，謀求現實的戰略利益。面對中國「走出去」與「多元化」的石油安全戰略，中亞國家與美俄大國競逐態勢，對區域及國際政經情勢的影響，值得關注。 / Beijing’s oil security gradually becomes dependent on foreign sources; this fact also constrains the development of Chinese economy and composite national power. As the Chinese economy grows fast, its need for oil intensifies as well. The oil supplies are unable to satisfy domestic demands, resulting in Beijing’s sense of insecurity. The oil security dilemma is manifested in several dimensions, such as insufficient domestic supplies, single import source and route, and insufficient total oil supplies. The reason why the Middle Asia countries attract China has geographical advantages in Middle Asia, where has the world’s third largest oil deposit. To these Middle-Asia countries which are during their major transformation period, oil resources become the basis of their outward development as well as a necessity to deal with the impact of globalization when international powers intervene. Therefore, oil security will determine the development of mutual relationships between China and Aiddle-Asia countries. Beijing’s oil security strategy on filling the gap in oil supplies and securing the oil supplies security. From "Geopolitions"aspects this thesis analyzes the oil secerity situation of China and Middle-Asia geopolitics, the intertions, deployment, practices future opportunities and challenges of China’s oil security strategy. With diplomacy as manenver Shanghai Cooperation Organization as platform Bejjing’s oil security strategy in Middle-Asia, accompanied by hospitality policies and geographical advantages, untents to establish an oil supply route by land. All of these approaches are to break through the concentration of oil supplies and the constraints and risks of maritime oil route. Due to its critical geostrategic status, energy values, and complication of political and economical situation Middle-Asia becomes a sensitive area in the Eurasian continent. Thus, the Middle-Asia countries adopt open and balance diplomacy, letting major powers enter this area in order to seek for realistic interests, Under the circumstances of Beijing’s "Outward" and "Diverse" oil security strategy, the competition between Middle-Asia counteies, U.S. and Russia, and the impacts of this competition on regional and international political and economical situation, are certainly worthy of attention.

自1993年起，中國從石油淨出口國成為石油淨進口國，1996年成為原油淨進口國，2003年中國超過日本成為世界第二大石油消費國，目前中國是世界第三大石油進口國。中國對於石油這項戰略物資具有高度敏感性，繼1993年撤銷能源部後，於2008年成立國家能源局由國家發展和改革委員會管理，足見中國對於能源事務的再度重視。隨著世界經濟實力與軍事勢力的變化，新的世界能源地緣政治正在逐漸形成。美國感受到中國因經濟發展帶動對石油的龐大需求後，在美國國內出現「中國石油威脅論」的說法，認為以中國的經濟發展程度而言，其石油需求量在將來可能跟一個美國一樣或是超越美國所需的量，而目前世界石油儲量及開採速度已不能承受另一個美國的出現。中國的石油安全戰略不只與中國國內事務相關，更與國際間各個石油生產國、進口國有莫大的關係。其中，因為美國早已在世界擁有許多油田並與世界主要產油國建設良好關係等因素，以美國為中心的世界形勢對中國積極推行的石油外交不利，可能成為中國「走出去」戰略的阻礙。本論文將對中國的石油安全戰略的落實問題進行檢驗，觀察中國與各國在石油方面的探勘、投資及技術合作等，其中以美國的參與作為主要研究重點，檢視中美在石油領域的競爭行為是否影響中國國家利益，並評估兩國在獲取石油或尋找替代能源上的合作可能性。

中國的崛起如同現實主義對於國家間衝突的解釋，亦即國際間對於中國威脅的廣泛論述，不論其威脅是否真實存在，其對國際間的影響已是不可否認的事實。1993年中國成為石油淨進口國，這是自1963年以來中國首次出現的石油赤字，宣示了中國石油供應自給自足局面的結束，也開啟了中國能源政策對外擴張的開始。 中國正由計劃經濟朝向其所謂的社會主義市場經濟轉型，對於在2050年達到中等發達國家水平的目標而言，現階段的發展將是一個重要的轉折。中國的經濟發展計畫，預約了對於石油的消費，其能源消費結構的錯置與供應來源的單一性以及潛在的脆弱性，對於中國的能源安全來說無疑是一個潛在的負面因素。尤其是當增加石油進口成為解決中國能源安全矛盾的必要路徑時，對外的能源政策將是確保中國能源安全是否穩定的關鍵點。 國家為了能源的安全獲得確保，必然發展對內保護對外擴張的能源政策，尤其是仰類進口能源的國家，其對外的能源政策將更具侵略性。中國的能源安全戰略圍繞在多元化為中心的概念展開，包括能源的來源、種類、路線以及運輸與獲得方式的多元化。對內，中國透過多元管道強化本身的能源安全鏈，避免對於進口石油產生過度依賴。對外，中國領導階層積極的出訪，綜合外交的力量推展「能源外交」，全方位的在全球佈局，突破大國對中國軟性的圍堵，除了獲得實質的石油收益外，也開啟了中國外交的新趨向。 / China rises abruptly symbolizes the explanation of realism is on a collision between the countries. Meanwhile the world make a popular discussion about they were threatened by China. Whatever it exist or inexistence, but it definitely influence the whole world. Until 1993 China became the petroleum importer that caused first deficit in China since 1963. It announced to end in self-contained petroleum and commence opening the extensive of energy resources policy. The China is going to plan the economics that go forward and change into socialist marketing. For the 2050, they’ll expect to achieve the goal of middle-development country, and a turning point in the developing at this most important stage now. In their economics- development planning which bespeak the petrol expense is error of structures of resources expense, single-supply source and potential frailty. It was without doubt that potential negative factors for safety of energy resources of China. When they increase to import the petroleum, it becomes to solve the safety of energy resources was confusing with necessary method. An external policy of energy resources will ensure China to connect the safety of energy resources if it's stable. They need safety of energy resources was assured so that they must develop the policies are internal protection and external extension. Especially the country depend on the resources imported, the external policy will more invasion. The safe policies of resources are around the conception of diversity are origin, kinds, channels, transportation and so on. For domestic policies, China use the diverse channels to strong the energy in Security and avoid to over rely on the imported petroleum. For foreign policies, China leaderships are highly active to make an official visit and diplomatic power combined to promote the “Energy diplomacy”. They operated the overall strategy of global and broke through soft containment of super state to them. Therefore China not only gains much benefit of petroleum virtually but opens the new tending of diplomacy.

中共改革開放後，經濟快速發展，能源需求高漲。自 1993 年成為石油淨進口國，石油消費量不斷擴大，產量卻無法大幅提升，石油供給不足的缺口正逐步擴大，對進口原油的依賴成為中共國家安全的潛在威脅。因此中共試圖以國有石油企業「走出去」到海外投資的能源外交政策，以達成供應安全、油源多元化目標。 本文以政治經濟途徑分析中共能源外交政策的發展，探討中共政府如何形成側重能源供應面的石油戰略，何以藉由國有石油企業海外投資做為政策工具，而發展出來的能源外交政策。如何推動能源外交政策以保證石油供應安全？中共能源外交活動究竟取得什麼樣的成果？又將面臨多大的挑戰？透過這幾個研究問題的驗證，本文認為中共能源外交活動以國家安全為主軸，以政府力量扶持三大石油企業海外投資活動，在某種程度上是代表國家力量的擴張，儼然成為國際能源體系不安全的因素，導致無法確保石油供應安全。未來中共能源安全策略雖仍以國家安全、經濟民族主義為基調，但可預見中共將更加積極參與國際能源貿易活動與國際能源組織，建構具有中國特色的能源外交政策。 關 鍵 詞：能源、能源安全、石油安全、中共外交、能源外交 英文關鍵詞：Energy, Energy Security, Oil Security, China's Foreign Policy , Energy Foreign Policy

中國自1993年後成為石油淨進口國，而伴隨經濟持續的高度成長，石油消費亦逐年增長，中國面臨威脅未來發展的資源短缺危機。而隨著國力的崛起，中國領導人、企業紛紛走向世界，融入國際體系，其中以中國石油產業的擴張最受矚目。本文擬從國家現實主義為出發點，探討中國在面臨石油安全威脅之際，所展現出的石油外交戰略與意圖，將全球產油區分為四大中國正進行佈局的戰略區，包括中東與北非、中亞和俄羅斯、東南亞與南海、南北美等四區，探討中國官方與企業的外交與商業作為，從中分析其在各區域及整體所面臨挑戰，進而研判中國石油外交未來發展方向。 / China has become an oil net importer since 1993. Because China’s economic growth is leaping continuously, its oil consumption has increased year by year. China’s development in the future is threatened by resources shortage as China rises, Chinese leaders and enterprises make efforts to integrate into international community. The expansion of Chinese oil industries especially draws the world’s attention. Based on national realism, this paper will discuss how China implements oil diplomacy and oil strategy to cope with its oil security threat by dividing main oil producing areas in the world into four regions, include Mideast and North Africa, central Asia and Russia, South Asia and South China Sea. Judging from the government’s diplomacy and the enterprises’ business activities, I will analyze challenges facing in each area and as a whole to find out the trend of China’s oil diplomacy in the future.

本文要旨在回答中國大陸的能源戰略是如何形成，並探討此一戰略如何影響中國大陸的石油安全。本文主從歷史制度主義的觀點主張中國能源體制是決定中國的石油戰略最重要的因素。解釋中國的能源部門在經濟改革與國際化的內、外部環境下，產生制度變遷，進而形成不同時期的石油戰略。在回答中國大陸日益龐大的石油需求與進口石油依賴，使得政府制訂出提升能源使用效率、節約能源、能源多元化與確保海外石油供應 但由於中國為保護國有石油企業的壟斷角色，對於「迎進來」的市場進入條件設下許多條件限制，對外又採取積極的石油外交，使得國際社會對中國產生重商主義與保護主義的疑慮。 中國的能源部門自1980年以來已經歷幾個階段的改革，第一階段是從1982年至1987年，強調要計畫經濟為主、市場力量為輔的能源制度改革；第二階段是從1988至1992年，重點在於國有企業的改革，鼓勵國有企業集團化；第三階段是從1993至1997年，重點在政企分離，並把配置資源的基礎性職能轉移給市場；第四階段是從1998至2002年，重點在加強國有資產的監管與國有企業經營，並初步建立宏觀能源調控體系；第五階段則是自2003年以降，主要的改革目標在建立跨部門的能源協調機制與對外的競爭力。 本文但由於「漸進主義」式的制度變遷使得能源部門體制改革仍存在許多問題，諸如能源部門分散、能源監管部門眾多、國家安全思維與既得利益等，使得政府部門考量其能源安全時，政府干預仍多於市場思維，即便自改革開放以來國家能力已不斷衰退。但在能源辦與發改委能源局的人力有限以及能源部門缺乏效率的情形下，擁有龐大資源的三大國有石油企業（中石油、中石化、中海油）無疑「挾持」政府的決策，例如理論上中央政府可完全控制與審核國有企業的海外投資，但實際國有企業通常是在海外投案案定局後才通知發改委與國務院。中國的能源決策中的缺乏效率常來自於既得利益者的把持，而不願在整體的政治與經濟政策上肩負起更多的政策責任，例如中央政府與國企對於戰備儲油到底由誰出資的內部爭論。 未來中國的能源戰略會持續採取「迎進來、走出去」的方向；近年來政府試圖改革其能源決策程序，透過建立跨部會的決策協調機制試圖重奪能源決策的主導性，因此於2005年5月正式成立「能源領導小組」，並積極透入政府能源白皮書與能源相關法案的草擬，政府的舉動等於是將能源政策的制訂再度「中央化」。未來中國能源戰略的最大挑戰仍來自於能源體制能否深化改革，並且制訂出對外、對內策略一致的能源戰略，以因應中國未來的石油需求以及消減國際社會的疑慮。 / The new facet of global oil politics and China’s surging oil demand have forced the Chinese government and state-owned enterprises to secure foreign oil supplies and to implement energy efficiency. However, systemic level or state-centered theories have provided limited theoretic orientation to explain China’s state behaviors and foreign behavior. It is essential to explore China’s energy institution and energy strategy behind its quest for oil security. That is, China’s foreign strategy should be put into broader context of China’s institutional evolution and domestic/foreign energy policy-making process. This research applies historical institutionalism to look at history evolution of China’s energy institution and energy strategy (especially oil strategy). Chinese energy institution has experienced four main stages of institutional evolution since 1980s. The main themes of four stages have emphasized different administrative, institutional, and energy goals. Meanwhile, institutional critical junctures and feedbacks (formation and reproduction) also have existed in every stage. The first phrase (1980-1992) emphasized how to integrate market forces into China’s bureaucratic institution with socialist characteristics and the market oriented reforms faced several institutional challenges due to necessity of central planning; the second phrase (1993-1997) was characterized by slight and limited institutional restructuring within the energy sector because market force did not gain political support from the leadership. The Chinese government established both the State Energy Commission (SEC) (1980-82) and the Ministry of Energy (MOE) (1988-93) in the wake of acute energy shortages to re-centralize authority over the energy sector. However, neither institution could effectively coordinate and implement energy policy, partly because they could not overcome the vested interests in sectional industries. The third phrase (1998-2002) was characterized by radical institutional reforms on conglomerating SOEs and delimiting administrative power. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) along with the Energy Bureau within it have taken over full governmental regulatory and public sector responsibility from SOEs. However, NDRC functions not as powerful as SOEs do. Therefore, the fourth phrase (2003 until now) then put attention on the establishment of a super-ministerial interagency, revivification of administrative power, and emphasis of foreign competitiveness. The establishment of State Energy Leading Group (SELG) aims at regaining strong central authority and to correcting turbulent oil strategies made on a base of institutional constraints. Above all, China’s institutional evolution is characteristic of state-regulated marketization, limited property right reforms, strategic preference, and departmentalism in China’s energy sector since 1980s. The institutional evolution has constrained China’s energy institution from planning a long-term national energy strategy. China’s energy sector continuously confirms institutional formation by the support of highest leadership and mainstream ideology, and confirms institutional reproduction between the directive and liberal forces, between the government and market forces. Meanwhile, international responses to China’s hunting behaviors are to play either a conductive role in impelling China’s institutional reforms and in adjusting its foreign behaviors. To prevent serious energy competition and to enhance international cooperation, China has shown its willingness to communicate with other nations on oil issues. However, China also needs to show its determination to implement domestic demand-side measures and a market approach instead of implementing protectionist “welcome-in” and aggressive “going out” policies. Ongoing institutional reforms still determines whether the China’s energy institution will ensure the country’s energy security. In the short term, the establishment of the central authority in the energy sector will improve departmental coordination and policy persistance. However, in the long term, China’s ongoing institional reforms need to integrate more market forces, proceed property right reforms, and reshape relationship between the government and market. Without deeper institutional reforms, energy bureaucrats and SOEs would be dragged into institutional process of formation and reproduction but gain limited results in meeting China’s oil security.