隨著新世紀的到來，全球化進程加速進行，國際政治關係和國際經濟關係都獲得了新的發展。世界範圍內的石油供應、需求、資本市場已形成多元化發展趨勢，顯示出世界能源格局已拉開了新一輪大調整的序幕。世界主要強國紛紛制定了本國的能源發展戰略。中共是石油的生產大國，也是消費大國和世界上最大的進口國之一，石油消費對外依存度超過了50％，能源安全形勢非常嚴峻。如何加強能源安全，有效化解油價風險，減輕油價對國民經濟的影響，已經成為中共刻不容緩的課題。 中共石油戰略的核心在以走出去戰略來確保石油供應的穩定，走出去戰略的具體意涵，包括總體原則「謀發展、求互利、促多元」，開發市場的選擇是首重是週邊國家，東南亞與中亞地區，長遠發展須加強中東與非洲國家的合作，並依不同地區設計資源開發的方式和布局，最後是保障石油的供給與運輸安全，其手段，開展海外投資合作、進行跨國收購兼併、參與產權和風險市場的競爭。 中共石油戰略的執行包括體制面及石油上、中、下游四大層面的具體作為，其內容包括訂定能源法規、建全石油體制發展；引進來戰略及研發採油技術，提高國內油田生產量，石油外交、參與國際多邊組織為平台，積極與國外合作勘探與開發，達成進口多元化與多樣化；運輸多元化方面，廣建國內鐵路網，達成北油南調、西油東運，與多國合作研擬替代通道的可行性，並積極擴建國內油輪的比例，在消費與再生能利用；提高能源使用效率與調整能源組成結構、運用研發再生能等。 中共雖以制定出完整的石油戰略框架，但仍需面對能源管理決策混亂，國內石油生產增長有限，海上開採易與鄰國產生領土糾紛，海上護油能力薄弱，戰備千億資金負擔沉重，再生能受成本、市場、政策制約，發展不易等制約；在國際上面臨大國國際競爭壓力、石油外交易生安全困境、多邊合作機制難以形成合作共識、麻六甲海峽替代通道短期難以實現及世界環保意識提高等挑戰。 最後中共石油戰略的推展，對現有體系產生影響，區分為中共部份，包括國家安全、經濟外交、建軍備戰方面；區域方面，包括亞太共同體推展、區域能源競合雙嬴與區域安全潛在衝突加劇；在國際社會方面，包括中共擔任起崛起大國角色、提升第三世界國際地位及引發國際能源價格高漲等影響。

從第一、二次世界大戰、1973年石油危機，以至上世紀末與本世紀初兩次波斯灣戰爭都清楚顯示，石油一直是現代工業社會最有戰略意義的能源和基礎原料。由於石油儲藏與產區主要集中在中東（佔世界3/4石油儲藏及1/4產量）、中南美、非洲及前蘇聯國家，而這些石油資源豐富的國家往往是政治最不安定、衝突頻仍的地區，常造成世界石油市場供應的風險。回顧歷史，為了控制石油資源，曾造成許多國際衝突，甚至引發戰爭，我們有足夠的理由相信，石油爭奪仍會是現今或是未來國際政治經濟情勢緊張的焦點。 美國是世界石油消耗最大的國家（每日2000萬桶，佔全球石油總消耗的25％），俄羅斯是石油生產最大的國家（每日800萬桶，佔全球石油總生產的10％），中共是石油消費成長最快的國家（2003年石油輸入比前一年增加31％），還有歐盟及日本，上述強權國家在全球石油資源區展開激烈競逐，當中有合作，也有利益的衝突。2003年伊拉克戰爭，美國為中東的石油利益與歐洲盟邦（德、法）及俄羅斯的關係發生嚴重裂痕，至今仍難以撫平。「控制資源的流動是自古以來的策略，誰控制資源誰就能獲得權力；誰控制石油的供應，就能控制世界」。911之後，美國以反恐戰爭展開全球性的軍力部署，其中隱含著石油戰略的佈局。 本論文以國際政治經濟學的「霸權穩定論」做為研究的途徑，研究發現霸權爭奪石油乃是國際衝突的主要變數。本文的貢獻在於，將霸權國爭奪石油的手段與方式透過有系統的解釋與分析加以重現；另外，以石油戰爭的起因指出「霸權穩定論」的矛盾與偏失。我國是石油淨進口國，對石油的依賴度高，與石油相關議題有很大的研究空間。作者希望藉此引發研究石油議題的興趣，提高國人對石油議題的重視。 關鍵詞：霸權、 霸權穩定論、 石油危機、 石油戰略

無 / This thesis highlights the strategic triangle of oil relations between China, the US and Venezuela by analyzing their petro-diplomacy campaigns and domestic oil strategies. Research which has empirically documented the oil conditions of China, Venezuela, and the United States and their use of strategies is scant. Therefore, the aim of this thesis attempts to explore how their oil relations and national oil strategies are related, as these three countries all need to strengthen their national energy strategies and focus attention on energy security. This thesis will also look at the sensitivity and vulnerability of these triangular oil relations by analyzing each bilateral conflicts and cooperation, and at the concerns arising from this in a Strategic Triangle Theory framework. The main goal is to understand the trilateral oil interactions between China, Venezuela, and the United States and better minimize the conflicts and tensions between them.

中共自1993年起成為石油淨進口國，國內石油供需態勢產生了根本性的轉變，石油自給的局面正式宣告結束。至2003年已成為僅次於美國的全球第二大石油消費國。面對國內石油供需矛盾不斷擴大、石油進口依存度逐年加深的局面，制定一套石油戰略已經成為中共的當務之急。在具體實踐上，中共石油戰略主要採取了「加強探勘開發國內石油」、「建立石油戰略儲備體系」、「提高能源使用效率與開發替代性能源」、「多元化戰略」與「走出去戰略」等五項方針與措施。透過上述方向上的努力，中共面臨的「石油壓力」已經獲得了一定程度的減緩。 然而，在地緣政治上，冷戰後美國已將中共視為最主要的戰略競爭對手，並在全球範圍內對中共進行戰略包圍與圍堵，中共漫長而脆弱的海上石油運輸線面臨著美國潛在的軍事威脅。如何解決在嚴峻、複雜的地緣形勢下，石油輸送線所面臨的軍事安全問題，是中共石油戰略長遠的核心目標。基於地緣政治與軍事安全的考量，採取鋪設陸路輸油管線的方式，逐步減少對海路石油運輸的依賴，似乎已成為中共根本解決「海洋困局」的唯一選擇，而中亞將是此一構想能否實現的關鍵區域。

In 2003, China surpassed Japan to become the world’s second largest oil consumer (behind the United States), and the third largest oil importer (behind the United States and Japan). China’s huge demand for oil and its dependence on oil imports have forced the Chinese government continuously to adopt the energy expansion strategy in order to secure the country’s oil supply. The energy supply and reserves in Southeast Asian region are not the critical core area to supply China’s energy demand, but it is located in the periphery of China where it controls the transportation link of the Strait of Malacca, directly to hold a strategic point of the sea lane of communication for transporting oil to China. Under this scenario, China is proactively to carry out its energy diplomacy with ASEAN’s nations and to ensure completely an overall strategic arrangement in Southeast Asia so as to assure China’s oil security. In this thesis, it is mainly to probe into the following questions: the inquiring into China’s oil security strategy? Why China and how to readjust its relations with the nations in Southeast Asia? What is the driving factor? After China has become the oil importer, China has to face what kinds of challenges in oil transportation security? What is its intention of resolution projection? In terms of geographic shares, about 60% of the China’s oil import comes from the Middle East, passing through the highly insecure the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia that has taken the advantages to influence China’s oil sea transportation routes. Those issues will lay stress on the key points of breaking through the “Malacca Dilemma,” meet the China’s oil demand, sustain economic development, even consolidate the legitimacy of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, and conform to the national interests. / In 2003, China surpassed Japan to become the world’s second largest oil consumer (behind the United States), and the third largest oil importer (behind the United States and Japan). China’s huge demand for oil and its dependence on oil imports have forced the Chinese government continuously to adopt the energy expansion strategy in order to secure the country’s oil supply. The energy supply and reserves in Southeast Asian region are not the critical core area to supply China’s energy demand, but it is located in the periphery of China where it controls the transportation link of the Strait of Malacca, directly to hold a strategic point of the sea lane of communication for transporting oil to China. Under this scenario, China is proactively to carry out its energy diplomacy with ASEAN’s nations and to ensure completely an overall strategic arrangement in Southeast Asia so as to assure China’s oil security. In this thesis, it is mainly to probe into the following questions: the inquiring into China’s oil security strategy? Why China and how to readjust its relations with the nations in Southeast Asia? What is the driving factor? After China has become the oil importer, China has to face what kinds of challenges in oil transportation security? What is its intention of resolution projection? In terms of geographic shares, about 60% of the China’s oil import comes from the Middle East, passing through the highly insecure the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia that has taken the advantages to influence China’s oil sea transportation routes. Those issues will lay stress on the key points of breaking through the “Malacca Dilemma,” meet the China’s oil demand, sustain economic development, even consolidate the legitimacy of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, and conform to the national interests.

中國自1993年後成為石油淨進口國，而伴隨經濟持續的高度成長，石油消費亦逐年增長，中國面臨威脅未來發展的資源短缺危機。而隨著國力的崛起，中國領導人、企業紛紛走向世界，融入國際體系，其中以中國石油產業的擴張最受矚目。本文擬從國家現實主義為出發點，探討中國在面臨石油安全威脅之際，所展現出的石油外交戰略與意圖，將全球產油區分為四大中國正進行佈局的戰略區，包括中東與北非、中亞和俄羅斯、東南亞與南海、南北美等四區，探討中國官方與企業的外交與商業作為，從中分析其在各區域及整體所面臨挑戰，進而研判中國石油外交未來發展方向。 / China has become an oil net importer since 1993. Because China’s economic growth is leaping continuously, its oil consumption has increased year by year. China’s development in the future is threatened by resources shortage as China rises, Chinese leaders and enterprises make efforts to integrate into international community. The expansion of Chinese oil industries especially draws the world’s attention. Based on national realism, this paper will discuss how China implements oil diplomacy and oil strategy to cope with its oil security threat by dividing main oil producing areas in the world into four regions, include Mideast and North Africa, central Asia and Russia, South Asia and South China Sea. Judging from the government’s diplomacy and the enterprises’ business activities, I will analyze challenges facing in each area and as a whole to find out the trend of China’s oil diplomacy in the future.

隨著中共經濟蓬勃發展，對石油需求急遽增加，迄2014年底石油對外依存度已超過60%，石油已成為制約中共發展的重要因素；如何在經濟發展中維持穩定的石油供應來源、提高石油使用效率、優化能源結構及強化石油戰略儲備，均為中共石油戰略規劃的重要考量。其中，中共石油戰略係以「走出去」為核心戰略規劃，並透過發展政治、外交、軍事及經濟等外交，推動與國際政經情勢密不可分的油氣合作，積極開發多元化管道油源、分散對外石油運輸管道，以保障石油供應安全；此舉不但牽動國際強權石油競合關係，更進一步重組全球油氣結構；另一方面，中共石油外交作為衝擊美、日等強權在產油國之利益。此外，各油產國如中東、非洲及中亞地區，各自因內部政經、族群及宗教等情勢動盪，對中共石油外交作為形成諸多挑戰；故此，本論文係從中共地緣戰略考量為出發點，探討中共面臨詭譎多變的國際情勢下，如何在中東、非洲、中亞等油產區推動油氣合作及外交，並兼論與俄羅斯的油氣合作關係；而近年來中共發展「一帶一路」戰略規劃，加速周邊油氣外交，並將發展重心轉移至歐亞地區，在東亞地區形成中國與俄羅斯及美、日兩大勢力抗衡，亦改變了國際石油版圖。 / Along with China’s rapid growth of economic development, its demand for oil has dramatically risen up. As of 2014, China’s oil import dependency ratio has exceeded 60%, indicating oil has already become a critical ingredient in China’s development. How to maintain stable oil supply, increase the efficiency of oil consumption, improve the energy structure, and enhance the oil strategic reserve are among China’s key considerations on oil strategic planning. China’s oil strategy centers on “going globally,” pushing forward the oil-gas cooperation overseas by developing political, diplomatic, military and economic relationships. To safeguard the security of its oil supply, China has proactively exploited multiple oil resources and constructed various oil transportation channels. China’s behavior not only poses impact on the competition and collaboration among powerful nations but also reshapes the global oil-gas structure; on the other hand, China’s “oil diplomacy” has also threatened the interests among great powers, such as the United States and Japan in oil producing areas. Furthermore, the domestic political, economic, ethnic and religious turmoil in oil producing areas, such as the Middle-East, Africa and Central Asia, also poses tremendous challenges to China’s oil diplomatic strategy. Therefore, with China’s geographic strategy in mind, the thesis investigates how China promotes oil-gas diplomacy and cooperation with those oil producing countries under such a capricious international environment. In addition, the thesis also probes into the Sino-Russia oil collaboration relation. In recent years, China has developed “One Belt and One Road” strategy, which expedites peripheral oil-gas diplomacy and switches its emphasis to Eurasia area. In East Asia, China and Russia’s oil cooperation has formed a new camp, which takes on the U.S. and Japan’s collaboration and also changes the distribution of the global energy power.