Reduced-impact logging (RIL) was identified as a measure, complementary to other identified measures, which can contribute to Indonesia reducing emissions from forestry and forest degradation (REDD+). In this light, the research was aimed to investigate the economy-wide impact of implementing RIL on the economy, which was studied at the district level. For this purpose, an expert opinion survey method was integrated with Berau computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The expert opinion survey was utilised to: (i) generate information and confirm the impact of implementing RIL on logging costs, and (ii) obtain an estimate of the incentive required by logging companies to maintain the practice of RIL. Results of this approach provided input to the Berau CGE model. In addition, multiple ways of data gathering were employed to develop the dataset required for the general equilibrium analysis. Simulation results suggest that the economic impact of implementing RIL policy is negative but small on the Berau economy compared to a situation where the RIL is not implemented. Worker households (particularly agricultural worker households) are worse off and non-agricultural households are better off. Furthermore, providing compensation, which was simulated as a logging output- based subsidy, can improve the Berau economy, although to only a lesser degree. The RIL policy causes a significant negative impact on logging output which further leads to output reduction in forest-based and pulp & paper industries. The policy implementation, however, simulates production increase in other agricultural activities, notably in oil palm plantation. Furthermore, results simulations with the logging output-based subsidy suggest the magnitude of economic impacts is reduced from what would otherwise occur in the scenario of implementing RIL only (no subsidy is provided). The RIL policy also seems to result in ̳unexpected‘ emissions leakage indicated by increases in output of some agricultural-based activities such as oil palm plantation, other estate crops, and food crops. Increase in emissions is also expected to occur outside the Berau District stimulated by the increase in the District‘s import of timber.

Obiettivo di questo lavoro è studiare i fattori socio-economici responsabili del cambiamento nella distribuzione del reddito dovuto a un cambiamento nel contesto politico di riferimento, in Vietnam durante il periodo delle riforme. La metodologia adottata analizza i cambiamenti nella distribuzione del reddito sia a livello micro che a livello macro. A livello micro, l'analisi indaga sulle caratteristiche individuali e familiari da cui dipende il livello e la distribuzione della spesa. E' possibile inoltre valutare gli effetti diretti di cambiamenti nel quadro politico di riferimento. Il livello macro di analisi consente di individuare le caratteristiche strutturali della disuguaglianza nella distribuzione del reddito personale e di isolare anche gli effetti indiretti delle politiche. Gli strumenti analitici selezionati in questo studio sono un modello supply-driven, rappresentato da un modello di microsimulazione e un modello demand-driven, costituito dalla Matrice di Contabilità Sociale. In particolare, il modello di microsimulazione ha consentito la derivazione di una distribuzione controfattuale e la disaggregazione della variazione della disuguaglianza in Vietnam in: effetto di prezzo, effetto di una variazione della componente non osservata dei salari, effetto dovuto a cambiamenti nelle scelte occupazioni e effetti dovuti a cambiamenti nella popolazione. Utilizzando una nuova metodologia di scomposizione ad un livello microscopico dei moltiplicatori derivati dalla SAM, è stato possibile derivare e isolare tutti gli effetti diretti e indiretti di uno shock esogeno sulla distribuzione personale del reddito. / The aim of this work is to investigate the socio-economic factors that affect in income distribution changes caused by changes in the policy framework in Vietnam during the period of reforms. The adopted methodology analyzes policy induced changes in income distribution both at the micro and the macro level. At the micro level, the analysis of inequality can help identifying the socio-economic factors affecting the level of household expenditure and its distribution and evaluating direct effects of policies. The macro level identifies the structural characteristics of inequality and evaluates also the indirect effects of policies on the personal income distribution. The two analytical tools have been selected have been a supply driven model represented by the microsimulation model and a demand driven model, constituted by the Social Accounting Matrix. The microsimulation model allowed deriving a counterfactual distribution of income and disaggregating change in the Vietnamese income inequality into four effects: price effect, effect of a change in the unobservable component of wages, occupational choice effect and population effect. Using a new technique of decomposition of SAM-based multipliers in 'microscopic' detail, the macro model allowed deriving all the direct and indirect effects of an exogenous shock to personal income distribution.

Questa tesi è una raccolta di tre saggi di economia multisettoriale applicata. L'obiettivo è la progettazione di politiche economiche per il sistema educativo degli Stati Uniti. Un miglioramento delle prestazioni del sistema educativo può avere effetti positivi sullo sviluppo socio-economico del paese. Il metodo di analisi adottato è l'approccio della matrice di contabilità sociale, in inglese Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). I modelli multisettoriali basati sulla SAM estendono l'analisi input-output tradizionale ai problemi della generazione e distribuzione del reddito e della formazione della domanda finale. L'impiego di modelli multisettoriali statici e dinamici basati sulla SAM mostra che politiche per l'istruzione progettate in modo appropriato possono stimolare la produzione di capitale umano, l'attività produttiva e la formazione di reddito contribuendo, allo stesso tempo, alla stabilizzazione del deficit del governo federale degli Stati Uniti. Il primo capitolo descrive le SAM per gli Stati Uniti per gli anni 2009 e 2012 e spiega come compilare una SAM. Il secondo descrive un modello multisettoriale statico e presenta alcune politiche per l'istruzione. Il terzo descrive un modello multisettoriale dinamico e presenta alcune politiche per l'istruzione. Le politiche proposte si dimostrano adatte a contrastare crisi e recessione e possono indicare una strada verso stabilità economica e crescita. / This dissertation is a collection of three essays on applied multisectoral analysis. The aim is to design and evaluate policies for the education system of the US. Good performances in terms of education have positive externalities on the social and economic development of a country. The methodology adopted is the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) approach, which extends traditional input-output analysis to income generation and distribution and final demand formation. Policy design and evaluation carried out through static and dynamic SAM-based multisectoral models show that well-conceived policies for education can stimulate the accumulation of human capital, production and income while contributing to the stabilization of the federal budget deficit of the US. The first chapter describes the SAMs for the US for the years 2009 and 2012 and shows how to assemble a basic SAM from readily available statistics. The second chapter discusses a static SAM-based multisectoral model and policy applications. The third chapter discusses a dynamic SAM-based multisectoral model and policy applications. The policies proposed in the second and third chapter prove to be effective in contrasting output and income downturns and can show a way for economic growth and stability.

中國大陸自「改革開放」以來，在經濟體制和結構上有著急遽的轉變，同時，海峽兩岸的經貿互動與依存程度也愈來愈高。因此，能有效分析中國大陸經濟情勢的政策模型，對於台灣與中國大陸的政策制定者與政策研究分析者而言皆十分重要。可計算一般均衡（Computable General Equilibrium，CGE）模型由於在數據需求的較大彈性及模型結構上的特性，成為中國大陸現今重要的經濟政策模型之一，本研究的目的在於考察、分析中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的研發背景、發展歷程、建模過程、主要政策應用方向及研究結果。 　　本研究的內容及流程如后：（1）依「歷史研究」、「調查研究」來歸納、分析中國大陸經濟學研究的發展歷程，以及中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的發展歷程；（2）接著依「文獻研究」來分析、分類本研究所蒐集的中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型實證文獻（1978年－1998年）；（3）接著依「理論研究」來歸納、分析出可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的發展、基本結構、數據基礎與建模（Modeling）；（4）以「可計算一般均衡」（CGE）方法，先依據最新的「1995年度中國投入產出表」，編制出兩張：「中國大陸1995年社會會計矩陣」、「中國大陸1995年金融社會會計矩陣」為模型數據基礎，然後應用中國大陸所研發的兩個可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型（「中國大陸經濟-環境可計算一般均衡模型」、「中國大陸金融可計算一般均衡模型」）的主要結構和方程式，以說明中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的建模過程和政策應用方向及模擬結果。 　　本研究的研究結果如后：（1）中國大陸經濟學研究的發展、實際經濟情況變化和政策制定需要，導致中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型在「改革開放」後的發展可分為「啟蒙研發」和「政策應用」兩個階段；（2）將中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型實證文獻（1978年－1998年）有系統地分類出「貿易政策問題」、「能源和環境政策問題」、「財政和稅收問題」、「經濟改革和發展策略問題」、「外來衝擊問題」、「貨幣金融問題」、「社會保險問題」等七類實證文獻；（3）應用兩個中國大陸研發的可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型，來說明建模（Modeling）與數據編制的過程，並延續、拓展相關的政策模擬研究，分析了環境政策（「綠色導向能源政策」，Green-Oriented Energy Policy：2000年－2015年）與匯率政策（「管理浮動匯率政策」，Managed Floating Exchange Rate Policy：1998年）對中國大陸經濟體的影響。 謝 詞 ii 中文提要 iv 英文提要 vi 中文目次 viii 英文目次 ix 表 次 x 圖 次 xi 1. 緒 論 1 1.1 研究動機 1 1.2 研究目的 3 1.3 研究流程與內容 4 2. 文獻探討 5 2.1 中國大陸經濟學研究的發展歷程 5 2.2 中國大陸可計算一般均衡模型的發展 11 2.3 中國大陸可計算一般均衡模型實證文獻回顧 20 3. 可計算一般均衡模型的發展、基本結構、數據基礎與建模 32 3.1 可計算一般均衡模型的概念與發展 32 3.2 可計算一般均衡模型的一般性基本結構 36 3.3 可計算一般均衡模型的數據基礎與校準 40 3.4 可計算一般均衡模型的計算機求解與建模過程 42 4. 中國大陸可計算一般模型之應用（1）─中國大陸經濟-環境可計算一般均衡模型 45 4.1 模型的基本結構 45 4.2 模型方程式 49 4.3 模型的數據基礎與校準 57 4.4 政策應用-中國大陸宏觀調控下環境政策之一般均衡分析 61 5. 中國大陸可計算一般模型之應用（II）─中國大陸金融可計算一般均衡模型 69 5.1 模型的基本結構 69 5.2 模型方程式 71 5.3 模型的數據基礎與校準 73 5.4 政策應用-中國大陸匯率政策之一般均衡分析 78 6. 結 論 83 6.1 本研究主要貢獻 83 6.2 研究限制與建議 84 6.3 後續研究建議 85 參考文獻 86 附錄1. 94 附錄2. 103 / Both the system and structure of Chinese economy have been changed rapidly since the launch of "economic reform and opening to the outside" in Mainland China, and the economic interaction and trade interdependence between Taiwan and Mainland China are intenser and closer. Effective policy analysis models for Chinese economy is very important to the policy makers and policy analysis researcher both in Taiwan and Mainland China. The Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） model has become one of the most important economic policy analysis model because of its characteristic of higher flexibility on benchmark data and structure. The purpose of this study is to review, investigate and analyze the developmental background, developmental progress, modeling procedure, policy simulations and research results. 　　The brief contents and procedure of this study consist of （1） reviewing on the development of economic research in mainland China and CGE modeling for Chinese economy, （2） reviewing on the literature of CGE models for Chinese economy used on Policy Analysis（1978－1998）, （3） reviewing on the development, basic structure, benchmark data and modeling of CGE model, （4） constructing two Chinese Social Accounting Matrix （SAM） tables developed from the most recent 1995 Chinese Input-Output table to be the benchmark data of two CGE models, the "Chinese Economic-Environmental CGE model" and the "Chinese Financial CGE model", which are developed from Chinese government and researchers, and we revise them in this study,（5） applying those two models to show and illustrate the modeling procedure and results of policy simulations of CGE models for Chinese economy. 　　In conclusion and contribution, it is composed of three parts. （1） The development of CGE model in Mainland China can be divided into two ages, "The Beginning"（1978－1991） and "The Take-off"（1992－）, which results from the development of economic research in Mainland China, the rapidly changed economic system and structure of Chinese economy, and government's urgent demands for policy-analysis tools. （2） The literature of CGE models for Chinese economy used on policy analysis from 1978 to 1998 can be classified into seven groups－ trade policy, energy and environmental policies, public finance and tax reform policies, economic reform and development strategy, external shocks, monetary and financial policies, and social insurance policy. （3） We apply those two CGE models for Chinese economy to analyze the economic and environmental impacts of environmental policy－ " Green-Oriented Energy Policy"（2000－2015） and the economic impacts of the " Managed Floating Exchange Rate Policy"（1998）.