兩岸發展競爭力消長，最近數年來尤為明顯。據瑞士洛桑管理學院(IMD)2007年全球競爭力評比，台灣排名自2005年之第11名滑落至2007年之第18名；中國大陸則由31名提升到第15名，首度超越台灣。彼長我消之因素頗多，牽涉問題亦深且不易解。例如兩岸的統獨之爭，國內的內閣更迭波潮不斷，及政局穩定度、政策一致性、社會凝聚力，以及投資誘因力道等表現相對脆弱。相對於中國大陸，則是彼岸發展處於強勢有利時期，正所謂對岸屬「政經和諧」時期，台灣則處於「政熱經冷」時期，而兩岸間亦依舊停留於「政冷經熱」階段。對岸目前所走的路線恰好是台灣三、四十年前以「經濟為導向」的發展途徑，此為兩岸政、經發展消長最明顯的地方。縱使台灣在自由民主、發明專利、通膨水準、高科技產品、科技人才仍占有優勢，亦或政府大力協助廠商布局全球，如果兩岸未能和諧發展，則仍將難於突破當前困境，或競爭力將持續陷入每下愈況的困局。 本論文研究目的主要針對台灣與中國大陸國力發展之消長過程與趨勢，及兩岸互動對台灣是威脅或是機會，探討台灣發展新思維及應採措施，亦即如何趨吉避凶，乃為本論文研究之預期目標。本論文首次引用決策模式──層級分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP），將兩岸複雜問題系統化，以簡易之結構化思考架構下，由不同層面給予層級分(析)解，讓決策者迅速研判台灣之兩岸發展之優選策略，或據以實施。首先以過去有關兩岸政治、經濟、國防、外交等政策文獻，作為構思研擬台灣當前與未來急需優先採行的重大策略後，隨即親訪產、官、研專家，擬訂AHP層級分析法問卷調查所需問題界定，構建層級結構。即第一層為全方位優選策略，第二層為政治和諧(I1)、經濟發展(I2)、國防安全(I3)與全球化(I4)等四大主題，第三層為各主題內之各子(次要)項(各細分五子項，合計20子(次要)項)。 AHP層級分析法略以總群(組)體(total)、偏經濟專長大於40歲（eco>40）及小於四十歲(eco<40)、偏政策專長大於40歲(pol>40)及小於40歲(pol<40)等五個分類組別，輸入計算軟體結果分析比較得知，不論總群體組或不同各次群組，即不分何種專長、年齡層都以經濟發展(I2)為首選指標，其餘三大主題(項)依次為國防安全、全球化及政治和諧，但彼此權重之高低卻在伯仲之間(詳本論文第四章第三節結果分析)。足見且印證了經濟發展是當前兩岸發展中台灣之首要任務，亦為國內人民、企業界和國外世界級跨國管理大師之共同關注焦點。 本論文採用文獻及當前問題趨勢分析，配合訪談及應用「層級分析法」結果，顯示層級分析法是一種簡易又便捷的優選決策工具。不但可免去一般繁複卷數、人力之累，且其分析結果雖僅具少數專家卓見，卻能充分反映多數人的看法和企求目標，也頗符合「二八法則」管理關鍵原則，值得推廣應用。本論文研究之結論與建議事項，或可提供有關當局施政之參考。 / The rise and fall of competitiveness between China and Taiwan has fluctuated dramatically in recent years. According to the latest IMD World Competitiveness Scoreboard 2007 (published on May 10th 2007), the ranks of Taiwan dropped from 11th in 2005 to 18th in 2007. On the contrary, China’s rank increased from 31st to 15th in the corresponding period of time. This is the first time China’s ranking overtook Taiwan. There are a lot of factors involved of the rise in China and the fall of Taiwan; the problems involved are complicated and hard to solve. There are numerous examples, such as the disputes about Taiwan’s cross strait status, the frequent change of the cabinets in Taiwan, as well as the political instability, policy inconsistency, the social cleavage, and the lack of attraction for investment in Taiwan. These problems have only improved a little when they are compared to China’s progress. China is in the stage of fast development, and both of the political and economical circumstances are in harmony. In contrast, the Taiwan government has focused on political issues rather than how to solve economical problems in the recent years. In addition to this, the cross-strait issues focus more on economical than political issues. Now, the road taken by China, happens to be the road that was taken by Taiwan government, which emphasized “economical-oriented policies” 30 to 40 years ago. This is the most noticeable aspect of the comparison of political and economical development across the strait. Taiwan has the advantage in freedom, patents, the inflation situation, high-tech products, and technology elites. The Taiwan government also spares no effort in assisting companies’ global layout. If the cross-strait situation cannot be improved, the current situation will be difficult to solve. In the end, the competitiveness of Taiwan will worsen. The target of this thesis lies on analysis of the process and tendency of rise and fall of national power across the strait, as well as discussion about whether or not cross-strait cooperation is a threat or an opportunity for Taiwan. It discusses the new thinking and measures of development that Taiwan should take. In other words, how to make good decisions and avoid bad policies is the goal of this thesis. This is the first time the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is adopted to systematize complicated problems cross strait. By using simplified structural thinking, different levels of problems are analyzed by the AHP. This way, policy makers can judge what are strategies are better to take for cross strait development, and may put them into practice in the future. In the beginning of this thesis, documents concerning cross-strait political affairs, economy, national defense, and foreign affairs were used as references to design major strategies that needed to be solved presently and in the future in Taiwan. Later, experts from industries, the government, and the research field were interviewed to design questions in the survey according to the AHP, and to make the structure of different levels. The first level is about policies in priority in every aspect. The second one is about political stability (I1), economical development (I2), national security (I3), and globalization (I4). The third level is about sub-items of each item (five sub-items of each and 20 sub-items in total). The AHP was divided into five groups: total, those with the specialty over 40 years of age (eco>40) and under (eco<40), those with the specialty of policy-making over 40 years of age (pol>40) and under (pol<40). After the five classified data was analyzed by computer software, the result showed that both the total and different sub-groups, people in different ages and with different specialties, all chose economic development (I2) as their choice in priority. The other three selective items in order were national security, globalization, and political stability. However, the differences among them were very slim (Please refer to the results and analysis in Chapter 4.3). This proves that economic development should be the primary mission in current cross-strait development. It is also a common concern by the people, companies, and international masters of management. In this thesis, documents and the current problems according to the AHP were adopted. With the interviews and results from the AHP, it showed that AHP is an easy and convenient tool to make prioritize policies. It not only can save the time and efforts of giving out large numbers of the survey, but the result can truly reflect opinions and goals pursued by the majority, even though only the opinions of a limited number of experts were taken. This also meets the 80/20 principle of the crucial rule of management. Meanwhile, it can also draw conclusion and suggestions in this thesis in providing policy-making references to the government. It shall be promoted and applied with great exertion.

自1988年開始中華民國政府推動「整廠輸出推動輔導」專案至今，針對台灣整廠輸出產業之輔導創造中小型整廠輸出之商機逐年增加。 為因應產業外移所造成產業空洞化之危機，除政府極積推動之「企業營運總部」政策外，輔導廠商進行產業轉型，以填補台商製造業全球佈局所造成的產業空洞，即更具有積極開創之意義。鑑於二十一世紀本是強調創新，以「知識服務」為競爭核心的時代，「知識」己成為生產力提昇與經濟成長的主要驅動力，故台灣產業之轉型，即無法忽視此種以知識資本為主要生產要素，透過持續不斷的創新，並善用資訊科技力量以提昇產品附加價值之「知識經濟」型態之影響。 而以往台灣之產業政策一向集中於製造業，並未重視服務業之發展，因之，政府於輔導廠商產業轉型時，即順應知識經濟時代之潮流，妥善利用台灣是世界重要的資本輸出國、台商海外資產總值名列前茅、台商擁有全球接單、各地製造的運籌能力等優越條件，以發展「高附加價值」的「知識型」服務業為重點。 鑑於「整廠設備輸出」的概念即為發展「高附加價值」的「知識型製造業」。其牽涉眾多環節及技術，個別廠商多無法獨立克服，故為企業之整廠輸出行為提供整體解決方案之整廠輸出技術服務業，因具有以專門知識為基礎，提供「高附加價」的「知識型」服務之特性，應值得政府部門重視。此外，倘業者能將其技術服務(不以傳統之機器設備整廠輸出技術服務為限，尚可包括工程技術服務業(Engineering Service Industry)、農業技術服務業(Agricultural Service Industry)，予以整體包裝，賦予品牌，並將其以整體國際行銷之技術服務商品型態對外輸出，應亦屬「整廠輸出」之一環(按傳統意義所稱之「整廠輸出」向以機器設備之硬體為主，以技術服務之軟體為輔，而技術服務之整廠輸出，係以技術服務為核心，而以硬體之機器設備為輔)，是值得政府部門重視。 按整廠設備輸出係一項整合性的產業活動，需要整合工程顧問、工程設計、進出口貿易、機械設備製造供應、技術服務、營建工程、市場行銷、融資服務等多面向之工作項目及問題，且不論企業之整廠輸出活動，對企業之整廠輸出行為提供整體國際行銷之整廠輸出技術服務業，或以技術服務為商品之技術服務型整廠輸出業，均與整廠設備輸出之產業活動相關。 準此，本研究擬以「整廠輸出」之產業活動現況為基礎，探討企業之整廠輸出活動，整廠輸出技術服務業，或以技術服務為商品之技術服務型整廠輸出之經營現況，及整廠輸出業者在大陸地區之營運情況及目前所遇到之事實或法令之障礙、期望中華民國政府可以提供之扶助獎勵措施等等事項，進行瞭解並提出檢討，以期對未來整廠設備輸出產業之發展策略，提供參考之興革建議，並做為中華民國政府主管機關推動「整廠輸出輔導專案計畫」之佐證。 / The Current Analysis and Future Strategies on Taiwan’s Turnkey-plant Export Industry Taiwan government has promoted and assisted “Turnkey-plant Export” project for the island’s small- and medium-scale enterprises since 1988. Since then, this assistance has created many turnkey-plant-export opportunities for small- and medium-scale enterprises. In addition, these opportunities have also increased year by year. In order to cut down production costs, many Taiwan manufacturers have moved their plants overseas, and some of the industries are empties around the island. Therefore, Taiwan government has promoted the policy of “enterprise’ operating centers”, and has assisted manufacturers to transfer their traditional industries to high-tech ones. This could cover the empties after Taiwan manufacturers’ global manufacturing policy. The 21 Century emphasizes innovation, and core competition is based on knowledge services. Knowledge has become the driving force for upgrading productivity and economic growth. Taiwan’s enterprises can’t neglect knowledge capital is the major factor for manufacturing and production. Through continuous innovation and the use of information technologies to upgrade the value added products. This is knowledge economy. Previously, Taiwan’s industry policy has centered on manufacturing, and hasn’t emphasized on the development of service industries. Therefore, when government assists manufacturing industries to transfer their lines, must follow the trend of knowledge economy. Taiwan is one among the world’s capital-export countries. Taiwan enterprises’ offshore production values have ranked the top. In addition, they accept purchase orders around the world, and have global manufacturing sites. These are the important factors to develop high-value added and knowledge-type service industries. The turnkey-plant-export concept is to develop high-value-added and knowledge-type manufacturing. This export provides the total solution, and is technology service business. It needs special knowledge for the base to provide high-value-added and knowledge-type technologies for the character of service business. The government should aware the importance of these knowledge and technology. In addition to traditional technology serviced for the traditional turnkey-plant exports, if enterprises could add more and advanced technology services such as engineering service industry and agricultural service industry. Enterprises could have turkey-plant exports as a package and a brand name and using international marketing and sales for the exports. This will be the new turnkey-plant export. The traditional turnkey-plant exports are focus on the exports of hardware (production equipment), and the technology services are the minor. On the other hand, the government should aware that. the technology-service turnkey-plant exports are focus on technology services, and production equipment is the second. The turnkey-plant exports are integrated industry. It should integrate engineering consultations and designs, import and export trading, equipment and facilities manufacturing and supply, technology services, construction engineering, marketing and sales, financial loans. The turnkey-plant exports, international marketing and sales as well as technology services, or based on technology services for turnkey-plant exports are related to turnkey-plant exports. Therefore, this research will base on the turnkey-plant-export industry to discuss enterprises’ turnkey-plant exports; the turnkey-plant exports technology services; the activities of based on technology services for turnkey-plant exports; and turnkey-plant-export enterprises’ activities in mainland China and law and other barriers there. The expected assistances and encourages from the government to proceed understanding and discussion. Hope this research will provide suggestions for the reference for the strategy development for future turnkey-plant exports. In addition, this could for the reference for the government to promote “turnkey-plant exports special plan.”