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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

臺灣高齡人口死亡率模式 / The Elderly Mortality Model in Taiwan

柯欣吟 Unknown Date (has links)
近年來臺灣高齡人口比例有明顯之增長,兩性平均餘命自1906年至今不斷的往高齡延伸,伴隨著這兩種趨勢下,臺灣高齡人口結構快速的轉型和變動,使得瞭解高齡人口死亡率模式成為估算未來臺灣人口結構發展趨勢的重要依據。然而,過去許多人口研究所依賴的資料來源是以「戶籍人口統計資料」為基礎,其資料內容雖涵蓋時間範圍甚廣,但在高齡人口的死亡率資料記載則有稍嫌簡化的問題及死亡人數紀錄不準確的限制,因此本研究擬以搭配「死因資料檔」,擷取其對於死亡人口數及死亡時間詳細紀錄的優點,來結合運用以探討臺灣高齡人口死亡率模式。 本研究以「參數式模型」、「相關模型」、「外推法」及「APC模型」四種不同估算取徑的運用,並結合現有實際的臺灣高齡人口死亡率資料,說明臺灣65歲以上高齡人口死亡率的變遷模式及發展軌跡。研究結果顯示,自1975年臺灣65歲以上高齡人口的死亡率變遷趨勢,確實往更高齡方向發展,同時,其死亡率的變遷波動越大,本身除資料紀錄上可能有所偏誤外,也可能因為90歲以上人口資料逐漸增加的情況下,變異性逐漸的明顯。此外,以各死亡率模型估算配適下,大多在90歲以上高齡人口的計算,其估算不準確的情形則越形明顯,但在65歲至85間的估算死亡率模式則有相當不錯的配適。
2

二十世紀的臺灣生育率變遷─時期與年輪生育率之關係 / Period and Cohort Fertility Transition in Taiwan, 1905-2008

黃博群, Huang, Po-Chun Unknown Date (has links)
臺灣在二十世紀中完成了人口轉型,特別是生育轉型的幅度與速度最為劇烈。也正因為生育轉型過於成功,臺灣此刻正面臨超低生育率導致的人口衰滅危機。近年來,人口學界針對生育率變遷,熱中於探討生育率的步調(tempo)與數量(quantum)效應,藉此瞭解時期生育率變遷的趨勢。 生育步調與數量的分析,本質上仍是時期性測量,未能真正瞭解年輪生育率的變遷,以致對於時期生育率趨勢的分析無法解決根本問題。這個現象,對於臺灣生育率研究特別必須加以處理。然而,臺灣雖然是人口資料的「寶庫」,有關生育的人口統計,卻只有存在於二十世紀下半葉,亦即,二十世紀前半葉的完整生育統計已經無法獲取。本研究試圖結合人口普查、戶籍統計,以及抽樣調查資料,運用參數式模型(parametric mode)和人口轉換(demographic translation)等人口分析方法,嘗試重建二十世紀完整的時期與年輪生育率,藉此,分析年輪生育率與時期生育率之間的變遷關係,最終瞭解未來生育率發展的可能後果。 / Demographic Transition has been completed during the middle of 20th century in Taiwan, and the extent and speed of transition are spectacularly rapid. Due to the over succeed of the demographic transition, lowest-low fertility pattern has stricken Taiwan society and probably led to a horrible extinction. Recently, in order to project the pattern of fertility rate, demographers endeavored to figure out how tempo and quantum effects contribute to fertility rate. Unfortunately, analysis of tempo and quantum effects is essentially periodic measurement. It leads no way to understand the pattern of cohort fertility in Taiwan. However, although Taiwan’s demographic statistics is well known as the world’s treasure trove, the fertility statistics are available for only 50 years. It means that we are not capable of having the first half 20th century’s fertility rate in Taiwan. We use demographic analytic methods such as parametric mode and demographic translation to analyze combined data which is constituted of census data, vital statistics, and survey data. The object of this research is to re-build the 20th century’s fertility rate in Taiwan. Once we have the intact fertility rate in 20th century, we could realize the pattern of period and cohort fertility transition. Furthermore, we will have a better chance to project Taiwan’s fertility rate in the future.

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