During the twentieth century, trends in childlessness varied strongly across European countries while educational attainment grew continuously across them. Using census and large-scale survey data from 13 European countries, we investigated the relationship between these two factors among women born between 1916 and 1965. Up to the 1940 birth cohort, the share of women childless at age 40+ decreased universally. Afterwards, the trends diverged across countries. The results suggest that the overall trends were related mainly to changing rates of childlessness within educational groups and only marginally to changes in the educational composition of the population. Over time, childlessness levels of the medium-educated and high-educated became closer to those of the low-educated, but the difference in level between the two better educated groups remained stable in Western and Southern Europe and increased slightly in the East.

BACKGROUND: The long-term decline in cohort fertility in highly developed countries has been widely documented. However, no systematic analysis has investigated which parity contributed most to the fertility decline to low and very low levels. Objective: We examine how the contribution of changing parity progression ratios varied across cohorts, countries, and broader regions in Europe, North America, Australia, and East Asia. We pay special attention to countries that reached very low completed cohort fertility, below 1.75 children per woman. Methods: Using population censuses and large-scale surveys for 32 low fertility countries, we decompose the change in completed cohort fertility among women born between 1940 and 1970. The decomposition method takes into account the sequential nature of childbearing as a chain of transitions from lower to higher parities. Results: Among women born between 1940 and 1955, the fertility decline was mostly driven by reductions in the progression ratios to third and higher-order births. By contrast, among women born between 1955 and 1970, changes in fertility showed distinct regional patterns: In Central and Eastern Europe they were fuelled by falling second-birth rates, whereas in the German-speaking countries, Southern Europe, and East Asia decreases in first-birth rates played the major role. Conclusions: Pathways to low and very low fertility show distinct geographical patterns, which reflect the diversity of the cultural, socioeconomic, and institutional settings of low fertility countries. Contribution: Our study highlights the importance of analysing parity-specific components of fertility in order to understand fertility change and variation. We demonstrate that similar low levels of completed cohort fertility can result from different combinations of parity-specific fertility rates.

BACKGROUND: During the 20th century the Czech Republic went through profound changes in female employment, gender roles, population and family policies, and public childcare. The educational structure of the female population changed tremendously. At the same time, completed cohort fertility fluctuated between 1.8 and 2.2 children per woman. OBJECTIVE: This article analyses the changes in the level of completed cohort fertility by education, during educational expansion in the Czech population under the economic, cultural, and institutional background of the state socialist regime, and after its breakdown. METHODS: The changes in the level of completed cohort fertility by education are analysed by means of decomposition, complemented by the analysis of parity composition. RESULTS: uring the 20th century, education-specific completed cohort fertility increased, rather than declined. Fertility levels converged upwards, contributing to high uniformity within educational categories. The overall changes in fertility levels were driven by changes in the educational structure. These trends resulted in the dominance of the twochild family, while large families were disappearing and childlessness dropped to the biological minimum. CONCLUSIONS: An egalitarian economic system with traditional family-friendly policies, in combination with a family-unfriendly labour market, developed into a male breadwinner model of low gender equity. Future family policies should focus on the reconciliation of work and family. CONTRIBUTION: he study contributes to the discussion on links between education and fertility, adding a new picture to the mosaic of country-level analyses. The Czech Republic is an example of a country with high educational homogeneity of fertility behaviour where the education-specific levels of fertility converged upwards.

The aim of this thesis is an analysis of fertility of 1st order in the Czech Republic at period 1950 2014 including international comparision, an enumeration of cohort fertility and also analysis of structure and count of households according to number of childern. The thesis is divided into four parts for accomplishment of the aim. The first part focuses the theoretical interpretation and the analysis of fertility of order in the Czech Republic using indicators like number of live birth, total fertility rate, mean age of birth and portion of children born inside or outside of marriage. The second part compares level of fertility of 1st order in European countries according to NIDI 1999. The third part deals with cohort fertility which is ilustrated with complete cohort fertility rate and mean age at birth. The fourth part analyzes structure and count of complete and incomplete family households according to number of children. All parts are commented with context of progression of reproductive behaviour

The aim of this thesis is to give an overview of the population (family) development from its start in the fifties of the twentieth century until today and to suggest its possible focus in the future. In the theoretical part, the development of family and pro-population precaution in the former Czechoslovakia is described, including international context. The next thing that the theoretical part deals with is the development of the states support of families after the Velvet Revolution in the context of economical a political changes. The analytical part of this thesis deals with the development of fertility using detailed demographic data of sectional and cohort analysis. The conclusion of this paper outlines possible direction of family politics which could ease the life of families, for example in the context of the reconciliation between family and work life.

This thesis addresses childlessness and its aspects in selected European countries: Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Estonia, the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway. The aim of this work is to discover whether there are differences between capitalist and post-socialist countries when it comes to the development of childlessness and fertility. The tools are: the analysis of fertility, the average age of mothers at childbirth and analysis of childlessness using both transversal and longitudinal indicators. The indicators used in the analysis were of the first and second category. Another aim of this thesis is to find out whether there are differences between the attitudes, opinions and values when it comes to approach to the family, the division of gender roles and children between childless respondents and respondents with children. The differentiation between sex and age groups through the use of three matrices with questions from three surveys (European Values Study, Eurobarometer and ISSP) are also investigated. The factor analysis and the method of principal components are used to reduce the number of variables. The results of the factor analysis are indexed and the indexes are then used to reveal how the differences manifest themselves in the monitored groups of respondents. The main result of...

臺灣婦女生育率下降快速，近年來屢創新低，堪稱全球生育率最低的國家，總生育率自民國89年1.68、降為民國98年1.03，民國99年甚至降至0.90以下，提升生育率成為政府施政的重要課題。因為資料限制，生育率大多以總生育率(Total Fertility Rate)表示，而非較能反映婦女一生生育總數的世代完成生育率(Completed Cohort Fertility Rate)。這兩者間存有不少差異，以生育率下降的臺灣為例，總生育率會因生育時機遞延而低估世代生育率，以總生育率詮釋生育率可能有瑕疵。有鑒於此，本文以比較「世代」及「年代」兩者的差異，以生育率及死亡率為研究對象，探討較適宜描述臺灣特性的模型。 由於世代生育率會有資料不足的問題，本文使用外推法(Extrapolation)補足年齡較高（如35歲以上）的婦女生育率，並以四種模型估計年代生育率與世代生育率，包括Gamma模型、Gompertz模型、主成份分析(Principle Component Analysis)與單一年齡組個別估計法，希望找出適合預測臺灣世代完成生育率的模型。除了台灣資料，也用日本、法國與美國的世代生育率資料，比較各國世代生育率模型的異同。另外，本文也以世代及年代兩種觀點，類似生育率的探討方式，比較常用死亡率模型的優劣。 不論是生育率或是死亡率資料，配適模型結果皆以世代資料可得到較好的估計結果，生育率以單一年齡組個別估計法為最佳的模型，死亡率則以Gamma模型、主成份分析、單一年齡組個別估計法為較佳的模型。 / Taiwan’s fertility rates have been declining radically in recent years, much faster than most countries in the world. For example, the total fertility rate (TFR) is 1.68 in 2000, 1.03 in 2009, and even reduces to 0.90 in 2010. Therefore, one of the top priorities for Taiwan government policies is to enhance the willingness of having children. Due to the data availability, the TFR is used more often, although the completed cohort fertility rate (CFR) is a more reasonable measurement. However, previous studies showed that the TFR is likely to be influenced by the deferring (i.e., tempo effect) of childbearing and produces misleading results. In order to measure the effect of deferring childbearing, this study focuses on exploring the difference of measures in the view of cohort and period (especially the CFR vs. TFR) and evaluates which fertility and mortality model is more appropriate for Taiwan. Because there are fewer complete cohort fertility data, we use extrapolation to make up the higher age-group fertility data (such as aged 35 and above). We consider four fertility models in this study, including Gamma model, Gompertz model, principal component analysis, and individual group estimation. We use the data from Taiwan, Japan, France and United State data to evaluate these fertility models. The results indicate that the parametric models (Gamma and Gompertz) have the worst performance, probably due to the rapid change of fertility behaviors. In addition, similar to evaluating the fertility models, we compare the performance of frequently used mortality models using the cohort and period mortality data. The result shows that using cohort data to estimate fertility and mortality is better than period data. Also individual group estimation is the best model to fit fertility; the better models to fit mortality are Gamma model, principle component analysis and individual group estimation.

臺灣在二十世紀中完成了人口轉型，特別是生育轉型的幅度與速度最為劇烈。也正因為生育轉型過於成功，臺灣此刻正面臨超低生育率導致的人口衰滅危機。近年來，人口學界針對生育率變遷，熱中於探討生育率的步調（tempo）與數量（quantum）效應，藉此瞭解時期生育率變遷的趨勢。 生育步調與數量的分析，本質上仍是時期性測量，未能真正瞭解年輪生育率的變遷，以致對於時期生育率趨勢的分析無法解決根本問題。這個現象，對於臺灣生育率研究特別必須加以處理。然而，臺灣雖然是人口資料的「寶庫」，有關生育的人口統計，卻只有存在於二十世紀下半葉，亦即，二十世紀前半葉的完整生育統計已經無法獲取。本研究試圖結合人口普查、戶籍統計，以及抽樣調查資料，運用參數式模型（parametric mode）和人口轉換（demographic translation）等人口分析方法，嘗試重建二十世紀完整的時期與年輪生育率，藉此，分析年輪生育率與時期生育率之間的變遷關係，最終瞭解未來生育率發展的可能後果。 / Demographic Transition has been completed during the middle of 20th century in Taiwan, and the extent and speed of transition are spectacularly rapid. Due to the over succeed of the demographic transition, lowest-low fertility pattern has stricken Taiwan society and probably led to a horrible extinction. Recently, in order to project the pattern of fertility rate, demographers endeavored to figure out how tempo and quantum effects contribute to fertility rate. Unfortunately, analysis of tempo and quantum effects is essentially periodic measurement. It leads no way to understand the pattern of cohort fertility in Taiwan. However, although Taiwan’s demographic statistics is well known as the world’s treasure trove, the fertility statistics are available for only 50 years. It means that we are not capable of having the first half 20th century’s fertility rate in Taiwan. We use demographic analytic methods such as parametric mode and demographic translation to analyze combined data which is constituted of census data, vital statistics, and survey data. The object of this research is to re-build the 20th century’s fertility rate in Taiwan. Once we have the intact fertility rate in 20th century, we could realize the pattern of period and cohort fertility transition. Furthermore, we will have a better chance to project Taiwan’s fertility rate in the future.

Die Dissertation fragt nach den Ursachen der spezifisch niedrigen Geburtenrate in Ost- und Westdeutschland, die seit Mitte der siebziger Jahre deutlich unter dem Reproduktionsniveau liegt. Theoretisch wird die Frage behandelt, inwiefern die gewandelte gesellschaftliche Stellung der Frau – insbesondere ihre höhere Bildungs- und Erwerbspartizipation – mit der Verbreitung geringer Kinderzahlen in Verbindung steht. Für die Analysen werden Scientific Use Files der Mikrozensen 1973 bis 2008 verwendet; diese repräsentieren jährlich 0,7 Prozent der deutschen Bevölkerung. So kann gezeigt werden, dass innerhalb vergleichbarer soziostruktureller Gruppen kaum ein Rückgang der Kinderzahlen auftrat. Differenziert nach Berufsbildungsabschluss, Erwerbstätigkeit und Finanzierung des Lebensunterhaltes zeigt sich, dass einzig Frauen ohne Berufsbildung sowie Frauen, die das Hausfraumodell leben, durchschnittlich 2,0 Kinder haben – dies ist sowohl im Jahr 1982 wie auch 2008 in Westdeutschland der Fall. Innerhalb der Gruppe der erwerbstätigen Frauen liegen die Kinderzahlen je Frau deutlich niedriger. Die Gruppe der Hausfrauen, die ihren überwiegenden Lebensunterhalt durch ihren Ehemann finanziert, hat sich in Westdeutschland im Zeitvergleich seit dem Jahr 1982 von 50 auf 25 Prozent der Frauen halbiert. Dieser strukturelle Wandel hin zu einer unabhängigen weiblichen Lebensführung führte in Westdeutschland zu Kinderzahlen weit unter dem Reproduktionsniveau. Die empirische Analyse zeigt, dass strukturtheoretische Modelle mit klassischen Variablen wie Familienstand, Erwerbsumfang und Einkommen die Varianz der Kinderzahl heute besser erklären können als noch in den achtziger Jahren. Im Fazit scheint ein gesellschaftliches „cultural lag“ auf – die gesellschaftliche Unterstützung zur Vereinbarkeit von Beruf und Familie ist offensichtlich zu gering, so dass die Emanzipation der Frau in Deutschland den negativen Effekt niedriger Geburtenraten hervorbringt. / The study focuses on the causes of low birth rates in eastern and western Germany, which has been below the level of reproduction since 1975. Theoretically the changing position of women in society is considered and the possible connections between higher female education, the spread of female employment and low fertility rates are discussed. The analysis is based upon scientific use files of the German micro census from 1973 up to 2008; the data represent annually 0.7 percent of the German population. It is shown, that there is no decline in fertility within similar socio structural subgroups. Controlled by educational/vocational training, employment and female income (financial independence) it is shown that only women with no vocational training and women with no own income have 2.0 children per women – this result is significant for Western Germany in 1982 as well as in 2008. Within the group of employed women the mean number of children is much lower. But the group of housewives declined in half from 50 to 25 percent between 1982 and 2008. This structural change toward female independent lifestyle leads to a very low birth rate in Germany. The empirical analysis shows that classical models using structural variables like family status, employment and income are able to explain a considerable higher variance of birth rates today. Summing up there appears to be a “cultural lag”: women get emancipated, but the public support and the compatibility of work and family stays low, as well as the birth rates of employed women led to low overall birth rates.