本研究運用線性迴歸模型來預測微型金融對於貧窮、高中就讀率等等社會問題所帶來的效果，其中微型金融包括了微型信貸、微型儲蓄、微型保險以及微型金融機構所提供的匯款服務。本研究的樣本涵蓋了從2011年到2014年拉丁美洲及加勒比地區的20個國家。 在把樣本細分成可以比較的不同組別，並進行迴歸分析之後，我們發現微型金融對於貧窮人數有負向的顯著影響，對於高中就讀率有正向的顯著影響，而對於其他如醫療、創業、家庭支出與人均收入的影響並不顯著。 因應在拉丁美洲和加勒比地區不斷增加的微型金融機構，本研究建議未來可以利用更複雜的統計模型像是工具變量、隨機對照實驗、準實驗問卷來估計微型金融與影響之間是否有因果關係，對於NMP來說，他們應該鼓勵微型金融的發展以及接受適度的批判來確保透明且可靠的研究來作為政策制定的參考。 / The following research uses a panel linear model regression to detect possible effects Microfinance and its iterations (namely microcredit, microsavings, microinsurance, and remittance services offered by microfinancial institutions) have on distinct social outcomes such as poverty and secondary school enrollment rates. The study sample consists of 20 countries in the Latin American and Caribbean region observed during a period of 4 years (2011-2014). After subdividing the sample into comparable groups the results yielded statistically significant negative effects on poverty headcount, and statistically significant positive effects on secondary school enrollment rates across the subgroups. The results from other social welfare dimensions such as health, business creation, household consumption, and income per capita were insignificant. Due to the increasing presence of Microfinancial institutions in Latin America and the Caribbean, there is sufficient reason to encourage further research to be done in which more experienced researchers can use more statistically complex models (such as IV, RCTs, quasi-experimental surveys) to try to determine whether or not there is a causal relationship between microfinance and the effects herein described. For policymakers and funders of NMPs, the takeaway is that they should encourage both advocates and critics to present transparent and replicable studies to back their claims.

University of Macau / Faculty of Law