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條件式資產訂價模型在新興市場之實證研究 / Empirical Analysis of Conditional Asset Pricing Model in Emerging Markets何裕傑, Ho, Yu-Chieh Unknown Date (has links)
The task of this paper is to employ the global asset pricing theory suggested by Ferson and Harvey (1995) to study the stock markets in the devoloping countries. Ferson and Harvey (1998) clarified the relationship in the developed countries under the global asset pricing model between mispricing and risks to cross-sectional explanatory power of conditional beta constructed by predetermined lagged variable such as book-to-market-value, cash-flow, P/E ratios and other determinants. There is also significant evidence of conditional betas in the three-factor model by Fama and French (1993), and the four-factor model by Elton, Gruber, and Blake (1995), and in the following research by Ferson and Harvey (1999). This paper focuses on the recently fast growing emerging markets to provide analysis of the debate on explanatory power coming from risk exposure or mispricing, and also tries to provide evidence for the global conditional asset pricing model, identifying other patterns of conditional asset pricing model for emerging markets.
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核能電廠大修排程的最優化張維仁 Unknown Date (has links)
隨著經濟的高度成長及電廠興建的日益困難,電力的需求問題是愈來愈嚴重。如何有效率地安排核能機組進行例行性的停機大修及燃料再裝填工作是重要的課題。本論文中考慮核能發電機組五年時程的大修排程問題,我們將這個大修排程問題描繪成一個大型混合型整數線性規劃模型。由於問題的龐大與複雜,此問題的最佳解難以求出。因此,我們發展數個邏輯條件式有效地縮小解集合空間;另外並發展出一個啟發性演算法,採用合併變數法將0/1決策變數合併,使原問題轉成較小的合併模型。先解合併後的合併模型,利用合併模型答案的資訊來固定原始模型的部分變數值之後,再解原始問題。幾個實例計算顯示此演算法的可行性。 / Since the growth of economics and the difficulty to build a new power plant, the supply of electric power has become very tight. It is important to ensure the efficient operation of nuclear power plants, including timely shutdown, refueling and maintenance schedule. In this thesis, we deal with the scheduling shutdown and maintenance of nuclear power plants for a five-year time period. This problem can be formulated as a large-scale mixed integer linear problem. The difficulty of solving this problem is due to the large number of binary variables. We then develop several valid logical constraints to reduce the complexity in processing using the branch and bound technique. Also, a heuristic based on the aggregation and dis-aggregation techniques has been developed to yield a good solution. Several examples are given to show the applicability of the algorithm.
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我國民眾對兩岸經貿之認知研究 / Attitude of People in Taiwan toward Cross-Strait Trade.葉昕, Yeh, Hsin Unknown Date (has links)
2008年馬英九總統上任後,遵行「先經後政」的兩岸政策方針,積極與中國大陸簽訂了多項協議,但我國民眾對此出現許多疑慮。2013年6月,海基會與海協會於中國大陸上海簽署《海峽兩岸服務貿易協議》,並對外公布兩岸的開放清單,此舉引發我國民眾不滿,認為政府單位未做到與民間充分協調的工作,並憂心將使臺灣在經濟與政治上更依賴中國大陸,造成社會不安,其後,我國於2014年3月,爆發了國內大規模的「太陽花學運」抗爭活動。
近年來,中國大陸已成為臺灣最大的貿易夥伴,但基於臺灣與中國大陸的特殊關係,兩岸間的經貿發展一直是台灣民眾相當關心的問題。本研究的主要目的為,在兩岸經貿互動非常密切與民意優先的今日,了解民眾對於兩岸經貿的認知與立場,試圖了解哪些因素會使民眾對於兩岸經貿的態度改變,並在過往研究的基礎上,洞悉影響民眾兩岸經貿態度的內在及外在因素如何相互作用,使民眾的兩岸經貿認知產生變化,並使用國立政治大學選舉研究中心「線上調查實驗室」於2015年4月,所進行的網路民調資料來分析。
根據前述架構,本研究將內在因素歸類為人口變項、心理認同、經濟考量以及政治考量四個部分;外在因素則藉由當今兩岸經貿交流互動中所遭遇到的問題點作為設計,涵蓋經濟利益、談判過程與安全因素等三部分,並提出政府可實行政策之方向,以條件問句來看民眾在情況下的態度變化。
資料檢測的結果發現,民眾對於各項條件句的接受程度不一,甚至加入條件句後,對於兩岸經貿的態度有轉向負向的情況,顯見不同的背景的民眾,將藉由相異的思考面向來形塑其對於兩岸經貿認知。而其中,安全因素的條件,將最有助於扭轉原先不贊成兩岸經貿的民眾意見。
研究發現,影響民眾對於兩岸經貿態度的變數中,除過去較常討論的內在因素外,外在因素同時具有影響力。臺灣民眾看待兩岸經貿不全然受到感性因素影響,當政府適時的給予政策上的幫助時,民眾仍會改變態度,以理性作為思考。希冀藉由本研究的討論,對於民眾兩岸經貿立場認知有更全面性的了解,並提供實質上的政策意涵。
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