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The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers
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Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
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馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法在外匯選擇權定價的應用謝盈弘 Unknown Date (has links)
本篇論文以Regime Switching Stochastic Volatility（RSV）作為外匯選擇權市場的波動度模型，採用馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法（Markov Chain Monte Carlo）中的GibbS Sampling演算法估計RSV模型的參數，並預測外匯選擇權在RSV模型下的價格。
數值結果方面首先對GibbS Sampling參數估計的結果做討論，再對預測出的選擇權價格與Black and Scholes作比較，最後並提出笑狀波幅與隱含波動度平面的結果。
本研究所得到之結論：
1. RSV模型與MCMC模擬法的組合，具備產生笑狀波幅的能力，提供足夠證據顯示，RSV模型與MCMC演算法所計算出來的選擇權價格，確實反應且捕捉到了市場上選擇權價格所應具備的特色。
2. 本模型能有效解釋期限結構 （Term Stucture of Volatility）、笑狀波幅（Volatility Smile）的現象。
關鍵字：馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法、外匯選擇權、貝氏選擇權評價、MCMC、Regime switching Regine change、Gibbs Sampling、currency option、Markov Chain Montec Carlo
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