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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

公開資訊與私人資訊對預測市場準確度的貢獻分析:以「兩岸相關協議」為個案分析 / The Contributions of Public Information and Private Information to the Prediction Markets: The Case of "Cross-Straits-Related Agreements"

林子揚, LIN,TZU YANG Unknown Date (has links)
所謂「預測」,是建立在對特定事物認識的基礎上所做出的預估,而預測的準確與否關鍵即在於預測者對資訊的掌握程度。長久以來,由於未來一直是人類亟欲征服與掌握的目標,因此預測也成為一普遍存在的行徑。有別傳統預測方法的諸多限制,「預測市場」藉由網路參與者主動參與價格為訊息加總等特色,可以更全面的涵蓋不同來源的資訊並進一步轉換為一個量化的指標,以達到更準確的預測。本研究藉由「未來事件交易所」中兩岸相關協議的個案分析,發現市場在預測的過程當中,價格除了藉由公開資訊的反映出來以外,其中亦包含了大量私人資訊的反映,兩者反映所有資訊次數的比例大致維持著4:6的關係,而這結果也代表了在兩岸議題當中資訊並未大幅被揭露,欲準確預測事件的結果仍須多方仰賴私人資訊的貢獻。此外,根據個案分析的結果,本研究也發現兩岸協議確實適用於兩岸議題的應用。 / Prediction is an anticipation based on specific events. The key point of correct prediction depends on the level controlled by predictors. For a long time, future has been a target for human to control and overcome. Thus, prediction becomes a way to explore future events. “Prediction markets” is different from traditional way. It gets rid of many restrictions. It transfers all diverse information from participators into a quantification index to predict more correctly. This research analyzed by Cross-Strait Agreements on Xfuture.com finds that market price is reflected by not only public information but also private information. The ratio of public information to private information is 4 to 6. The result indicates that information is not disclosed completely in Cross-Strait Agreements. By solving this problem, we should use private information to predict more precisely. Furthermore, Cross-Strait Agreements certainly applies to Cross-Strait Affairs according to this paper.

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