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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

基於非齊次卜瓦松過程之動態違約相關性描述及其應用 / On The Application of Inhomogeneous Poisson Arrivals in Default Intensity Modelling: Dynamic Default Correlations

張宇賢 Unknown Date (has links)
本文假設信用事件為非致命性 (non-fatal),其發生為外生非齊次卜瓦松過程 (Inhomogeneous Poisson Process)。當信用事件發生時,導致債權群組之標的資產違約機率同時上升,與市場上違約叢聚現象 (clustering effect)相似。本研究允許信用事件發生之頻率為系統及非系統性風險因素,且服從三參數伽瑪分配。進而提供一可校準的動態違約相關性模型,藉由對於信用事件發生頻率與信用事件影響幅度之刻劃,更能與市場報價貼近。本研究並以信用擔保債權為例,驗證本模型於評價及校準上之可行性,並對遠期信用擔保債權進行評價與敏感度分析。根據市場報價校準出之參數可反應目前信用市場上對於債權群組之標的資產間違約關聯性之看法。當模型中之參數變動時,對於違約關聯性之影響,亦可觀察權益分券與其他分券之合理信用價差產生之變化。

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