Reduction of nuclear arms in a verifiable manner that is trusted by two or more parties is a hard but important problem. Nations and organisations that wish to engage in such arms control verification activities need to be able to design procedures and control mechanisms that let them compute pertinent degrees of belief. Crucially, they also will need methods for reliably assessing their confidence in such beliefs, in situations with little or no contextual data to apply data-driven learning techniques on. This motivates the investigation of alternative methods of modelling beliefs. This thesis will cover three key models: a probabilistic Bayesian Network (BN) model for an arms control inspection scenario; a dynamical system that models an arms race with dynamics reflecting verification activities; and mathematical games, which are used for understanding the design space of treaties that constrain inspection schedules. We extend our models beyond their conventional computational abilities, and encode uncertainty over variables and probabilities within the models. This thesis explores the techniques required to enable such computations and to use these to answer questions of interest to decision making. In doing so, we also show that these abstractions can mitigate against the risk that lack of prior data represents for modelling and analysis. A main contribution of the thesis is to not only develop such methods for dealing with uncertainty, but to also extend these models with external constraints that reflect beliefs, knowledge or assumptions. We extend BNs to constrained Bayesian Networks, and relax the requirement of declaring Real valued probabilities of events. This then enables us to analyse marginal probabilities of interest symbolically, or develop metrics that check for agreement in outputs between multiple different models, and even optimise such metrics over the uncertainty. Whereas Stochastical Optimisation and other utility based techniques would enable an analysis of likelihoods, this work employs Robust Optimisation. This means that we are assessing 'best case', 'worst case' or 'is this ever possible' events, which are important to our arms control verification domain. For dynamical systems, we are able to leave initial parameters of the model as unknown, and then compute an optimum inspection routine (based on any arbitrarily set metric) that holds true despite the uncertainty. This allows us to provide decision-support regarding the best timings for rationing out a limited number of inspections, and how such an inspection regime should be the optimal one to meet the desired metric. In game theory, we develop constrained symbolic games that include symbolic pay-offs, and for which we can find Nash Equilibria that vary as the symbolic terms change. This allows us to advise players on the best mix of strategies to consider as the uncertain pay-offs vary, to either optimise pay-offs, or the use of particular strategies. Eventually, we are able to combine our approaches into an all-encompassing, yet fine-grained, model. Such integration accomplishes modelling all aspects of an inspection process and the regime that may call such a process. Integration also accounts for the shortcomings individual mathematical techniques have that other techniques can overcome. Our tools encode models in a Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT) solver: SMT are powerful decision procedures for quantifier-free, first-order logic. Solving our problems using SMT enables us to assess the sensitivity and relative confidence we have in particular models, as well as optimise for variables of interest and test hypotheses even without full data. The practical difficulties lie in leveraging the SMT to work for our large mathematical models, when, normally, they can only be relied on for simple or small numbers of mathematical computations. Although the theory, formalisations and methodologies engineered here are not specific to this domain, we utilise a case study in nuclear arms control to evaluate our approach and to demonstrate the real world insights gained. We conclude that the increased analytical capabilities from combining mathematical modelling and SMT allows us to - in principle - support the design or assessment of future bilateral arms control instruments by applying them to models of interest.

Examples of large scale networks include the Internet, peer-to-peer networks, parallel computing systems, cloud computing systems, sensor networks, and social networks. Efficient dissemination of information in large networks such as these is a funda- mental problem. In many scenarios the gathering of information by a centralised controller can be impractical. When designing and analysing distributed algorithms we must consider the limitations imposed by the heterogeneity of devices in the networks. Devices may have limited computational ability or space. This makes randomised algorithms attractive solutions. Randomised algorithms can often be simpler and easier to implement than their deterministic counterparts. This thesis analyses the effect of communication patterns on the performance of distributed randomised algorithms. We study randomized algorithms with application to three different areas. Firstly, we study a generalization of the balls-into-bins game. Balls into bins games have been used to analyse randomised load balancing. Under the Greedy[d] allocation scheme each ball queries the load of d random bins and is then allocated to the least loaded of them. We consider an infinite, parallel setting where expectedly λn balls are allocated in parallel according to the Greedy[d] allocation scheme in to n bins and subsequently each non-empty bin removes a ball. Our results show that for d = 1,2, the Greedy[d] allocation scheme is self-stabilizing and that in any round the maximum system load for high arrival rates is exponentially smaller for d = 2 compared to d = 1 (w.h.p). Secondly, we introduce protocols that solve the plurality consensus problem on arbitrary graphs for arbitrarily small bias. Typically, protocols depend heavily on the employed communication mechanism. Our protocols are based on an interest- ing relationship between plurality consensus and distributed load balancing. This relationship allows us to design protocols that are both time and space efficient and generalize the state of the art for a large range of problem parameters. Finally, we investigate the effect of restricting the communication of the classical PULL algorithm for randomised rumour spreading. Rumour spreading (broadcast) is a fundamental task in distributed computing. Under the classical PULL algo- rithm, a node with the rumour that receives multiple requests is able to respond to all of them in a given round. Our model restricts nodes such that they can re- spond to at most one request per round. Our results show that the restricted PULL algorithm is optimal for several graph classes such as complete graphs, expanders, random graphs and several Cayley graphs.

The North East Ambulance Service (NEAS) does not have direct access to any information regarding patient health history, current medication, allergies, etc. that might assist an ambulance crew when they are dispatched to an emergency incident. Therefore, an ambulance crew responding to a call-out usually travels to the incident ‘information blind’ regarding the patient’s general health status. What makes the ambulance service in general, and the ambulance crew in particular, unique from other healthcare organizations is the spectrum of exposure to a diversity of health organizations (care homes, GPs, hospitals, etc.), and none-health organizations (police, social services, fire forces,etc.). This thesis describes an investigation into the feasibility of implementing a software Information Broker (IB) prototype, that has the ability to provide ‘on-demand’ electronic health information to ambulance crews while on scene, by accessing a set of autonomous databases containing patient records. This is to support the ambulance crew with reliable patient information in order to assist their decision-making process, therefore, reduce unnecessary patients’ conveyance to the Emergency Department (ED). The thesis also examines the sociotechnical issues surrounding health information transfer between and within the National Health Service (NHS) in the United Kingdom (UK) for patients with epilepsy (PWE), specifically in the North East region of England. A case study approach was employed as an overarching framework for the feasibility study of the IB prototype. This case study was centred upon studying the needs of people with epilepsy (PWE), as this group has been identified by NEAS as frequent users of the ambulance service. In many cases, if the ambulance crew are given adequate information to support their decision-making, they do not need to convey patients to a hospital ED unless necessary. Within the case study, a phenomenological approach was employed for the set of perspectives used for investigating the sociotechnical issues surrounding the IB. The three perspectives were the perceptions of NEAS operational and management staff, those of the JCUH staff and PWE/carers, and finally, the perceptions of the ambulance crew. The prototype IB technology has demonstrated the feasibility of using an information transfer broker to transfer information from autonomous organizations to the ambulance crew on scene. Overcoming technical challenges alone is not sufficient for this success. Stakeholders’ requirements, organization collaboration, compliance with national standards and targets, social and technical aspects, and so forth, are other issues that have been considered. Involvement of potential stakeholders in stages of any Health and Information Technology (HIT) development is an essential element to be included, as much as possible, to satisfy those requirements and needs of end-users. Improving the data availability to the ambulance crews on scene via an IB, means that they can perform better decision-making while on scene with a patient. The demonstration of the IB prototype has shown its potential for transferring patient health information from an autonomous database to ambulance crews. To increase opportunities of success, shared incentives and aims of the intra- and inter-organizational communication and collaboration should facilitate the implementation of HIT. Facilitating incremental improvements of systems and technologies may have an effect on the organization as a whole in terms of robustness of systems and technologies.

This thesis explores the development of cooperative robotic manipulators for enhancing surgical precision and patient outcomes in single-access surgery and, specifically, Transanal Endoscopic Microsurgery (TEM). During these procedures, surgeons manipulate a heavy set of instruments via a mechanical clamp inserted in the patient’s body through a surgical port, resulting in imprecise movements, increased patient risks, and increased operating time. Therefore, an articulated robotic manipulator with passive joints is initially introduced, featuring built-in position and force sensors in each joint and electronic joint brakes for instant lock/release capability. The articulated manipulator concept is further improved with motorised joints, evolving into an active tool holder. The joints allow the incorporation of advanced robotic capabilities such as ultra-lightweight gravity compensation and hands-on kinematic reconfiguration, which can optimise the placement of the tool holder in the operating theatre. Due to the enhanced sensing capabilities, the application of the active robotic manipulator was further explored in conjunction with advanced image guidance approaches such as endomicroscopy. Recent advances in probe-based optical imaging such as confocal endomicroscopy is making inroads in clinical uses. However, the challenging manipulation of imaging probes hinders their practical adoption. Therefore, a combination of the fully cooperative robotic manipulator with a high-speed scanning endomicroscopy instrument is presented, simplifying the incorporation of optical biopsy techniques in routine surgical workflows. Finally, another embodiment of a cooperative robotic manipulator is presented as an input interface to control a highly-articulated robotic instrument for TEM. This master-slave interface alleviates the drawbacks of traditional master-slave devices, e.g., using clutching mechanics to compensate for the mismatch between slave and master workspaces, and the lack of intuitive manipulation feedback, e.g. joint limits, to the user. To address those drawbacks a joint-space robotic manipulator is proposed emulating the kinematic structure of the flexible robotic instrument under control.

The Internet of Things (IoT) is the set of systems that enable sensors and actuators to be connected to the Internet. It is estimated that there are already more IoT devices than humans, and that by 2020 there will be 50 billion connected devices. A review of related literature outlines concerns regarding security and privacy of the IoT, demonstrating that IoT devices are creating the opportunity to infringe on security and privacy in numerous ways. One significant challenge is to manage the identity of IoT devices in an effective way. Many IoT systems are built using middleware systems. The main research question of this thesis is whether an improved model for IoT middleware systems — based around federated identity — can provide significant improvements to security and privacy while maintaining reasonable costs in terms of user experience and performance. In a review of related work, a matrix of IoT threats is presented and from this a number of requirements are identified. A structured survey of literature around IoT middleware systems and platforms identifies 20 systems which are evaluated against those requirements. From this, a set of gaps in IoT middleware systems are identified. This work addresses a number of these gaps in a novel approach for linking IoT devices to cloud and web systems. A proposed architecture supports an integrated set of privacy preserving controls based on federated identity and access management patterns. In particular, a model introduces device and user registration processes that are adapted to support constrained IoT devices. Federation and de-coupling of systems are incorporated to allow choice of where data is shared with the result that users can choose to avoid sharing data with systems that may infringe privacy. Users are automatically provisioned with a cloud service that manages their devices and data. Summarisation and filtering of data are incorporated to protect raw data and prevent fingerprinting attacks. A formal model of the approach is presented and properties are proved mathematically, and these properties are used to inform a threat model of the system, which demonstrates benefits of the model in enhancing privacy and security. The model is implemented in a prototype system and experimental results on this system are presented, including energy usage, cost, scalability and performance. The prototype demonstrates that the approach is both feasible and cost-effective. Performance data demonstrates that the impact on users of the approach is minimal and within norms for such systems. Finally, areas of further research are presented.

Fuzzy systems and networks are vital within the armoury of fuzzy tools and applicable to real life decision making environments. Three types of fuzzy systems introduced in literatures which are systems with single rule base, systems with multiple rule bases and system with networked rule bases. This research introduces novel extension of the Technique of Ordering of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) methods and uses fuzzy systems and networks to solve multi-criteria decision making problems where both benefit and cost are presented as subsystems. In conjunction, the implementation of fuzzy sets type-1, type-2 and Z-number of proposed approaches is also presented. Furthermore, literatures have observed that tracking the performance of criteria is crucial by controlling the estimation of uncertainty of the criteria. Thus, the decision maker evaluates the performance of each alternative and further observes the performance for both benefit and cost criteria. This research improves significantly the transparency of the TOPSIS methods while ensuring higher effectiveness in comparison to established approaches. Ensuring the practicality and the effectiveness of proposed methods in a realistic scenario, the problem of ranking traded stock is studied. This case study is conducted based on stocks traded in a developing financial market such as Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. The ranking based on proposed methods is validated comparatively using performance indicators such as Spearman Rho correlation, Kendall Tau correlation, Root Mean Square Errror and Average Absolute Distance by assuming ranking based on return on investment as a benchmarking. Based on the case study, the proposed methods outperform the established TOPSIS methods in term of average rank position.

Higher Educational Institutions (HEIs) are making huge investments in infrastructure, equipment, technology, and professional development programmes of instructors in order to improve their educational effectiveness. However, the decisions regarding investments in technology implementation are generally made without understanding the factors that may affect the actual users of the technology. A lack of understanding of these factors often results in poor adoption of the technology due to users’ unwillingness to accept it; hence the new technology does not meet its anticipated benefits. Learning Management Systems such as Blackboard and Moodle are widely adopted for both on-campus and off-campus students in major universities around the world. The Learning Management System (LMS) has become an essential package for instructors and students in teaching and learning environment. The purpose of this study was to investigate the determining factors (i.e., effort expectancy, performance expectancy, facilitating conditions, social influence, hedonic motivation, and habit) of instructors’ behavioural intentions to use an LMS in Saudi HEIs, by applying a modified Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology model – UTAUT2. Most technology adoption models have been developed and tested in Western countries. It would be naïve to assume that such technology adoption models could be equally applicable across all cultural settings, especially in developing countries. The UTAUT2 model does not address cultural factors and lacks cross-cultural study in non-Western countries. This study extends the UTAUT2 model by including Hofstede's (1980a) cultural dimensions, technology awareness, and racial groups as the moderators of the model. A sequential explanatory mixed method approach is employed to collect quantitative data via a Google survey questionnaire, followed by the qualitative data collection via three focus group discussions from multinational instructors of HEIs in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. The quantitative data were analysed with structural equation modelling using SPSS/Amos software, whereas the qualitative data were analysed using thematic analysis procedure. The findings revealed that facilitating conditions were the strongest predictor of behavioural intention to adopt an LMS, followed by performance expectancy and hedonic motivation. Effort expectancy and social influence have positive effects on behavioural intention. In addition, the relationship between behavioural intention and use behaviour was also significant. The moderating variables were assessed by running an overall model and then a path-by-path test. Technology awareness, racial groups, and cultural dimensions exerted a moderating impact on instructors’ behavioural intension to use an LMS in their teaching. This study attempted to address limitations of the original UTAUT2 model by incorporating new variables in the context of Saudi HEIs. Hence, the novel model provides a new methodology, fills gaps in the literature, and thus reflects an effort to expand the UTAUT2 model. The inclusion of new constructs makes this the first study of its kind in exploring instructors’ behavioural intention and usage of LMS in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, and is expected to be applicable to other educational institutions of the country. This study is limited to onetime data collection from male and full-time instructors at HEIs in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. For greater generalizability, future research could be extended to a longitudinal study including male and female populations in other institutions and regions.

E-Government services offer a great deal of potential to improve government activities and citizen support. However, there is a lack of research covering E-Government services at the local government level, particularly in developing countries. However, implementing successful E-Service technology in this part of the world will not come without its barriers considering the unstable and fragile economies in most developing countries. The research aim is to identify the barriers facing E-Service adoption and implementation at a local environment level, using Nigeria as a case example. This thesis adopts an interpretive paradigm and uses action research. It consists of a large field study in Nigeria (interviews), an online survey of government officials, online focus groups, and analyses government documents and E-Service initiatives. A structured literature review method consisted of sifting through 3,245 papers. The main theoretical tools used in this thesis are the diffusion of innovation (DOI) theory and the theory of change. This thesis makes multiple contributions. The study found that the autonomy issue at the local environment level in Nigeria and corruption are the major barriers facing E-Service development. In mapping the applicability of these theories, this thesis developed a novel diffusion of innovation (DOI) theory-based E-Service framework consisting of an interactive process to investigate the barriers, solutions, and the success factors for successful implementation. In dealing with the corruption issues, this research proposed a theory of change model to investigate the attitudinal behaviours of E-Service development stakeholders towards corruption, including the long-term goals and outcomes. This model also suggests rewarding packages and human development to boost staff morale and necessary sanctions, as well as anti-corruption policies to guide against corruption-hindering E-Service development and implementation.

Refugees and displaced people who have been affected by political instability face complex challenges to access government services. Digital (eGovernment) services perhaps have the greatest potential for overcoming these challenges, particularly in societies and developing countries with limited access to traditional infrastructure and resources. There are limited academic works covering the provision and efficacy of eServices for this need. This work addresses this gap by examining eService provision for three levels of instability (High, Medium and Low, derived from UN data), and focuses particularly on the high-level case of instability in Syria, and on Syrian refugees hosted by other countries. The topic was challenging to investigate, given the current geopolitical context and issues of access to relevant people and stakeholders, which are distributed across countries and involve multiple agencies. A combination of research methodologies has been adopted, in this research. We reviewed the literature that focused on factors affecting the adoption of eService during instability, in which an initial conceptual formwork emerged. We compared eService activities in countries that exhibit different levels of instability, isolating factors and behaviours that led to successful experiences in order to repeat those successes in countries that have high-level of instability. This identified a need for an insightful study within highly unstable countries, therefore, we conducted a questionnaire to capture inputs from groups of displaced people which applied to the Syrian refugees in Syria, Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and some EU countries. We received 415 complete responses and 1634 partially completed responses to this study. The results indicate possible areas of good practice in the use of technology to support and engage refugees. To find the full set of these activities and good practices we conducted nineteen interviews with different stakeholders and experts from several case studies. In total, more than thirty hours of interview gathered using field-work and teleconference. This research provides a novel framework (Instability Framework) as the main contribution, in which we suggest technology-related strategies, barriers, and enablers that may assist in the effective adoption of eService delivery in unstable countries. Furthermore, Institutional Theory and examples of similar work in government support e.g. reinventing government principles by (Osborn &Gabler and Heeks in the information age) were extended to reflect the adoption of eService delivery in unstable society and used as theoretical lenses to comprehend our results.

Introduction: Electronic Health (e-Health) and Health Information Technology (HIT) projects offer considerable potential health benefits for both health professionals and patients. In developed countries, the technology is beginning to reach maturity, with a number of HIT products available to monitor health and well-being. Academic studies have also reported on the rollout of such systems in developing countries. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence from many developing countries in relation to how their IT solutions are implemented and evaluated. Aims: The purpose of this research is to develop a new theoretical framework to critically evaluate the factors that influence the implementation of HIT in developing countries broadly and specifically in relation to Libya. It is intended that the ultimate model assists in (a) combating the high failure rate of HIT projects and (b) specifying significant adaptions for the Libyan Government to consider in relation to future HIT projects that might reduce the risk of failure. Research Questions: This thesis seeks the answer to five research questions: RQ1. What distinct factors should be taken into consideration when HIT projects are implemented in developing countries compared to developed countries? RQ2. To what extent has HIT been deployed in developing countries? RQ3. What factors influence the success/failure of the adoption of HIT in developing countries? RQ4. To what extent have HIT systems been deployed in Libya? RQ5. What implementation metrics are being used in HIT projects in developing countries to measure success? Methods: A comprehensive literature review of ICT projects in both developed and developing countries was undertaken and the results of that research distilled and condensed into the first version of the Network of Influence Model. Two mixed methods were conducted to collect qualitative and quantitative data. A Constructivist Paradigm was applied in analysing these data to produce version 2 of the model. A modified Delphi study approach was then applied to the model itself to test its suppositions and veracity. Results: Version 1 of the Network of Influence Model (NIM) was derived from secondary research. It attempts to model, at a high level, the factors that influence the adoption of HIT in developing countries. Version 2 (updated from primary research) attempts to model the complex relationships between these factors. A knowledge gap was identified in the published literature in relation to Libya, where it seems no assessments of ICT solutions in any profession have taken place at all. Conclusions: Based on research findings, a novel evidence-based theoretical framework has been developed for addressing the drivers and barriers of HIT technology in developing countries. The Network of Influence Model identifies the following definitive factors which have not been previously highlighted in the literature: brain drain, capacity building, evidence base, and organisational memory. These factors have a profound impact on the success or failure of HIT systems in developing countries. This research can practically provide realistic guidance for the stakeholders involved in the process of planning, developing, implementing, using and adopting health information technology in developing countries. The model created should assist with the future study of any healthcare ICT solution implemented in a developing country. Although it did not prove possible to answer some of the research questions posed in full, the data obtained correlated with the suppositions made by the model.