The purpose of this research was to use Bayesian statistics to develop flexible mortality models that could be used to forecast human mortality rates. Several models were developed as extensions to existing mortality models, in particular the Lee-Carter mortality model and the age-period-cohort model, by including some of the following features: age-period and age-cohort interactions, random effects on mortality, measurement errors in population count and smoothing of the mortality rate surface. One expects mortality rates to change in a relatively smooth manner between neighbouring ages or between neighbouring years or neighbouring cohorts. The inclusion of random effects in some of the models captures additional fluctuations in these effects. This smoothing is incorporated in the models by ensuring that the age, period and cohort parameters of the models have a relatively smooth sequence which is achieved through the choice of the prior distribution of the parameters. Three different smoothing priors were employed: a random walk, a random walk on first differences of the parameters and an autoregressive model of order one on the first differences of the parameters. In any model only one form of smoothing was used. The choice of smoothing prior not only imposes different patterns of smoothing on the parameters but is seen to be very influential when making mortality forecasts. The mortality models were fitted, using Bayesian methods, to population data for males and females from England and Wales. The fits of the models were analysed and compared using analysis of residuals, posterior predictive intervals for both in-sample and out-of-sample data and the Deviance Information Criterion. The models fitted the data better than did both the Lee-Carter model and the age-period-cohort model. From the analysis undertaken, for any given age and calendar year, the preferred model based on the Deviance Information Criterion score, for male and female death counts was a Poisson model with the mean parameter equal to the number of lives exposed to risk of dying for that age in that calendar year multiplied by a mortality parameter. The logit of this mortality parameter was a function of the age, year (period) and cohort with additional interactions between the age and period parameters and between the age and cohort parameters. The form of parameter smoothing that suited the males was an autoregressive model of order one on the first differences of the parameters and that for the females was a random walk. Moreover, it was found useful to add Gaussian random effects to account for overdispersion caused by unobserved heterogeneity in the population mortality. The research concluded by the application of a selection of these models to the provision of forecasts of period and cohort life expectancies as well as the numbers of centenarians for males and females in England and Wales. In addition, the thesis illustrated how Bayesian mortality models could be used to consider the impact of the new European Union solvency regulations for insurers (Solvency II) for longevity risk. This research underlined the important role that Bayesian stochastic mortality models can play in considering longevity risk.

This research aims at determining the demographic characteristics of the population of Cyprus over 1881-1982, using all available data from censuses, registration and surveys. The thesis consists of two main parts. The first part focuses on the period from 1881 to 1960 and refers to the entire population. The second part deals with the period after 1960 and mainly focuses on the majority Greek Cypriot population, virtually no information being available for the Turkish minority after this time; the island was partitioned between Greeks and Turks in 1974. Chapter 1 describes the objectives of the thesis and the data available. Chapters 2-7 refer only to the period up to 1960. Chapter 2 deals with the growth of the population and changes in the distribution by age and sex. In Chapter 3 it is established that mortality transition was under way by the 1880s while it is argued that female mortality was slightly higher than male mortality before 1911. Chapter 4 traces changes in marriage patterns after 1911 and their relationship to changing ratios of males to females. In Chapter 5 it is argued that although fertility had decreased slightly by the 1940s, an uninterrupted declining trend was only established in the 1950s. In Chapter 6 migration is considered; emigration from Cyprus was substantial in the period 1955-1960. In Chapter 7 differences between Greeks and Turks in mortality, fertility and nuptiality are examined. In Chapter 8 it is established that fertility for Greek Cypriots had reached low levels though above replacement by 1976 while mortality had reached low levels by 1982. There was substantial emigration between 1974 and 1978. In Chapter 9 the validity of the mortality and fertility estimates is assessed by using them to project the population of Cyprus from 1921 onwards. Chapter 10 presents a summary of the major findings.

Traditionally, demographers have studied the determinants of nuptiality, sexual behaviour and fertility patterns from the perspective of women. The 1994 Cairo UN International Conference on Population and Development was an important turning point in demography. Since then, there have been efforts to understand the role of men in shaping nuptiality, sexual behaviour and fertility patterns and how men can be involved in population policies. This analysis of male nuptiality, sexual behaviour and fertility is based on data from the 1992 and 1996 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and the 1994 Zimbabwe DHS. The aim was to investigate issues of male demography for these two countries. Methods of analysis included descriptive statistics, life table analysis, logistic and hazard regression models. Results show that most of the socio-economic characteristics are not very important determinants of male demography in these two countries. Age at marriage is higher than that of women but there is little evidence that age at marriage for men is rising. Polygamy remains popular in Tanzania, where the proportion of men in polygamous unions is more than twice that in Zimbabwe. However, intensity of polygamy is low, as the majority of polygamous men have only two wives. Age at first sex is earlier in Tanzania than in Zimbabwe and is falling in both countries, more so in Zimbabwe than in Tanzania. Fertility, measured in terms of the number of children ever born per man, is higher in Tanzania than in Zimbabwe. Then again, the differentials in the rate of childbearing did not widely vary once controls for marriage duration and type of union are made. The study makes recommendation for the improvement of the quality of demographic data collected from men. Questionnaires need to be more detailed by, for example, including questions on the timing of various unions that men might have. In the study of male fertility, there is also need for information from more than one partner that a man has had. Given the early initiation into sexual relations, the study recommends intervention policies such as early sex education and a wider campaign for safe sex given the large number of single men who have more than one sexual partner.

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Migration studies are both extensive and fragmentary, reflecting a wide variety of aims and methodology. In recent years an abstract statistical approach has dominated migration study which tends to concentrate on the distance and direction of migrants. This thesis aims to extend this approach to investigate more fully the structural variables of the migration environment. The study of the migration context is supplemented by analysis of the characteristics of migrants drawn from a sample survey of heads of households in Grenoble; to give a more complete and balanced picture of the complexity of migration. The examination of net migration balances has been extended to study the spatial pattern of migration by Principal Components Analysis of gross flows at a national level. Factors of the migration environment selected for further study were demography, agriculture and amenities. Agricultural improvement is seen to act as an intervening variable between population pressure and outmigration in the early years of this century, while in more recent years the level of available amenities appears the dominant factor influencing migration. The department of Isère was selected for further study because of the presence within it of the rapidly growing city of Grenoble which in the post-war period emerges as a focus for migrants of national importance. Furthermore the diversity of the natural environment within Isère provides a variety of source and destination areas. The areas of population loss were studied by means of Automatic Interaction Detection which determined the factors important in explaining out-migration and provided a basis for the classification of those areas. The types of origin and destination areas are related to the characteristics of the migrants themselves, drawn from a sample of individual census returns from the 1968 census. The varied environments within Isère and France as a whole produce different types of migrants with varying characteristics and aspirations; who seek out different areas of the city in which to settle. The characteristics of the migrants are drawn from a sample survey of individual census returns from the 1968 census.

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