This study considers the changes which have occurred in the agrarian economy of Bist Doab, Punjab (India) during the period 1951-1968, a period coinciding with the first three Five-Year Plans of India. It sets out to map, describe and analyse these changes, to capture emerging patterns and to investigate the processes involved in change. In pursuing these aims, the study tests three hypotheses: that agricultural development is a continuous process of linked stages; that water is the most important catalytic factor in explaining and promoting agricultural development and change; and that the human element is critical in any development process and especially so in agricultural development. First the problem is identified and the sources, form and nature of data are described. An assessment of the' role of the physical, social, economic and human environments, technological advances and other related infra-structure in promoting or hindering change is made. The emerging patterns are described and the changes analysed by using various quantitative and non-quantitative techniques. The statistical techniques included the use of Regression, Correlation and Variance techniques and cluster analysis techniques. Automated cartography has made a significant contribution in mapping most of the information. The processes involved in shaping and producing these changes have been investigated. The incoming of experienced and innovative-minded farmers, irrigation water, consolidation of holdings, HYV package, and new technology have played major roles in the transformation of Punjab agriculture. The changes have been very rapid and numerous. The explanation for these changes is sought partly in physical, social, economic, political and technical factors, and partly in the responses and initiatives of the people involved. A series of themes is developed and each chapter considers a different aspect of the rural transformation in which development and change could be demonstrated. Specific case studies of farms and villages have also been carried out to investigate various aspects of change and development. Interviews with the farmers and persons connected with development have further helped in illustrating these themes. Changes reflect time sequence which is analysed and discussed. As far as possible, the spatial and regional differences are brought out and effectively explained. The themes taken up in the study are closely interrelated and, when taken together, build up a picture of dynamic change in the rural scene of Bist Doab during the period under review. The study supports the validity of all the three hypotheses put forth. The principal contribution of this study is firstly towards further understanding of the agricultural change and development in Bist Doab, or for that matter Punjab or even India, and secondly, to suggest the key elements in the processes involved in the change from subsistence to commercial agriculture. The rich experiences of the transformation of agricultural econorny in Punjab also raise a series of warning signals that must be very carefully considered in the determination of the future development possibilities, policies and programmes. It is hoped that the study will be provocative of further observation, thought and service.

The rapid growth of capital markets in emerging countries exerts a significant impact upon the future of the global economy. The spread of a shock, or crisis, from one originating market to other destination markets is a manifest phenomenon of recent decades. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis is frequently reported as the most unrelenting since the Great Depression of 1929. The overwhelming global impact of the crisis caught the world almost entirely by surprise. Financial contagion has grown in scope to become a subject not only of academic curiosity, but is also very much at the centre of the global political economy. The literature reviewed in this thesis thoroughly examines financial crises which have occurred since the 1980s, relating to the US market as well as other developing markets in Latin America and East Asia. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region contains the vast majority of oil and natural gas reserves in the world. Conservative estimates record its known oil reserves at 50% of the global total while natural gas reserves are estimated at over 40% of the world total. Further, in terms of flows, the region accounts for more than 35% of global oil production and over 20% of world natural gas production. It has one of the fastest growing populations in the world, estimated at more than 350 million (approximately 6% of the global total). Thus, financial contagion, to and from the MENA region, demands further investigation, particularly as there is a paucity of existing literature on this topic. A total of 39 world stock markets are examined in this thesis, including eight from the MENA region, and spanning six different crises over the period 1987 to 2008. More specifically, this thesis provides a cross-market analysis of daily composite stock price indices and uses short-term interest rates in a variety of filtering processes. The size of the data set is manipulated in order to observe the possible short and long-term dynamics of contagion. To test for contagion, this thesis presents a replication of the seminal works of Forbes and Rigobon (2002) and Chiang et al. (2007), whilst introducing several extensions to these methodological approaches. When using the Forbes and Rigobon methodology, the results suggest that the correlation-based test of contagion employed in the original study is biased and that the detection of contagion is sensitive to the method of filtering the returns. When using the Chiang et al. methodology, the results are widely consistent with those found in the original study, showing evidence of contagion in a large number of destination markets. Moreover, the results when both methodologies are employed suggest that contagion is more likely to be observed when the data set is expanded (typically exceeding a period of ten years per crisis examined), and when the US is the source of contagion to most of the developed, Latin American, and other emerging stock markets included in this thesis. The Forbes and Rigobon and Chiang et al. methodologies examine the correlations produced by the transmission mechanism but fail to address the transmission mechanism of contagion directly, a shortcoming which this thesis tackles by means of an alternative methodology. The alternative methodology, proposed by the researcher in this thesis, addresses the transmission mechanism which produces these correlations. The results show that contagion is more likely to occur when using a narrow data set (approximately two years per crisis examined), and that the evidence of contagion is mitigated when the data set is expanded. Further, the findings in relation to all three methodologies show that the financial markets in the MENA region are distant from global markets, and are best described as regionally integrated.

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This thesis consists of three chapters. The first chapter is ‘Endogenous Fertility in a Growth Model with Public and Private Health Expenditures’. In this chapter, we build an overlapping generations model that incorporates endogenous fertility choices, in addition to public and private expenditures on health. Following the seminal analysis of Bhattacharya and Qiao (JEDC, 2007) we assume that the effect of public health investment is complementary to private health expenditures. We find that this effect reinforces the positive impact of the capital stock on aggregate saving. Furthermore, this complementarity can provide an additional explanation behind the salient features of demographic transition; that is the fertility decline along the process of economic growth. The second chapter is ‘Growth and Demographic Change: Do Environmental Factors Matter?’. In this chapter, we incorporate health-damaging pollution into a three-period overlapping generations model in which life expectancy, fertility and economic growth are all endogenous. We show that environmental factors can cause significant changes to the economy’s demographics. In particular, the entrepreneurial choice of less polluting production processes, induced by environmental policy, can account for such demographic changes as higher longevity and lower fertility rates. Thus, we provide a novel environment channel of demographic transition. The third chapter is ‘The Effects of Foreign Aid on Growth: Health Aid versus Untied Aid’. In this chapter, we build an overlapping generations model with foreign aid and private health expenditures. The effect of an increase in foreign aid on growth is ambiguous as it depends on the proportion of health aid and the proportion of untied aid allocation to individuals. We also introduce health aid in the production function and we find that the growth impact is non-monotonic. There are thresholds of aid for which the growth impact of aid is negative (positive) if aid lies within (outside) these thresholds.

This thesis explores how informal sector gold mining affects land development processes in the Brazilian Amazon. The 1987-1990 invasion of the Yanomami Indian reserve, in the state of Roraima, by 40,000 wildcat gold miners provides the context for research. Having analysed the macro-economic and political factors that sparked the gold rush, consideration is given to its impact on the land-uses in the state. Land-use change is analysed by looking at how different rural producers and urban dwellers adapted their management techniques and livelihood strategies to the opportunities arising in the mineral sector. Fieldwork in Roraima was undertaken over a 16 month period between November 1990 and March 1992. Quantitative data was collected on the rates at which different groups of land users participated in the gold rush, while subsequent recorded interviews provided qualitative information on their motives for involvement and how they incorporated mining within their other activities. A large proportion of local smallholders went gold mining in order to supplement their agricultural incomes. Understanding the household economics and risk aversion strategies associated with smallholder migration to the gold fields raises interesting questions concerning the management of the gold rush through appropriate agricultural policies. While this provides an insight into the geography of the labour movements associated with the gold rush, a detailed study of the relationship between informal sector mining and ranching sheds light on the capital flows linked to the mineral boom. As ranchers invested in the gold fields and successful miners bought ranches, changing circumstances in the mining economy came to influence management practices in the beef production sector. The implications that this has on deforestation and land conflict throughout the Brazilian Amazon are discussed. In this way, the mining boom is seen to influence people and places which are distant from the gold fields themselves. This is clearly apparent in the case of Roraima's riverine dwellers and Macuxi Indians. Even though these groups had minimal participation in the gold rush, their lives were profoundly altered by the economic and political changes that it provoked.

This thesis attempts to analyse the utilisation of fish stocks within a defined region around Shetland. To do this environmental Influences on the occurrence and distribution of different species are studied. On this the aetivity of man is superimposed historically from land, bases in Shetland and elsewhere. External influences of immigration, trade, politics, economic and social factors have been prominent in development in the region. From the dominance of any influence a series of phases, on which chapters have been based, can be distinguished. The first came with cultural replacement during Scandinavian immigration in the ninth and tenth centuries, Following this commercialism developed through Henseatic merchants When they wore banished, the social factor of immigrant. Scottish landmaster control was important in, expanding the haf fishery. At the same time the Dutch were active hearing fishers in the region, In the nineteenth century, local enterprise led to a large seale cod fishery in distant waters. Succeeding that Shetland became absorbed into the main sphere of European herring fishing at the end of the nineteenth century. After 1918, loss of herring markets distinguished a period of decline when the technical innovations dominating modern development were, introduced.

This thesis seeks to establish the relationship between the crofting way of life and and its environment, and to account for its distribution and the areal differences found within it. The principal environmental factors at work - now and in the past - are seen as scarcity of the resources and remeteneces. The township from of settlement - a type of the agricultural village is taken as the main criterion of "crofting". It has been considered necessary to investigate the origins and development of the various elements in crofting, and Part I discusses the evolution of the way of life with special emphasis on traditional component of long standing which have continued into modern times. The acceleration of change in modern times is also discussed. Part II takes on assessment of the morden situation. This includes the manner in which activities and occupations - mainly within its region but also without - impinge on crofting. A chapter is also devoted to agriculture to show both the survival of traditional ways on the land and the function of the crofts in production; and a special chapter is also devoted to common grazings, on which are seen the main survival of communal effort within the township. In part III are analysed six areas which have been chosen to show the maximum amplitude of variation found within crofting communities. A multiplicity of criteria has been employed in their selection, including the economic viability of their crofting systems, their degree of isolation and different survivals from the past.

This thesis, consisting of four essays, studies various aspects of structural transformation based on a dual economy approach. The first is on the relationship between economic growth and structural change. I introduce a dual growth model with heterogeneous labour, and show that uneven sectoral growth shifts workers' comparative advantage, inducing selective migration from agriculture to non-agriculture. This transition determines sectoral labour compositions over time, and influences the dynamics of growth paths. Simulations suggest an inverse correlation between the speed of structural change and the relative dispersion of productivity across workers. The second essay provides further insights for the dynamics of living standards during structural transformation. The time paths of welfare, inequality and poverty are simulated under a hypothetical structural change. The model shows a Pareto-improvement of welfare, rise on inequality, and reductions on poverty over time for both agriculture and non-agriculture, but the effects are uneven. It is argued that economic transformation is not necessarily associated with a Kuznets curve. The third essay studies the interactions between labour markets and rural-urban selective migration. I recast the dual economy model with a search and matching framework for its urban sector, and show a link between the size of the urban informal sector and individual productivity distributions. It suggests that improving average individual skills is an effective way to alleviate urban underemployment. The last essay examines the conditions under which foreign transfers to households could promote economic growth and structural change. Although transfers can bring welfare benefits, the effects on growth and structural change are modest under isoelastic utility, but larger effects emerge when preferences take the Stone-Geary form.

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