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A critical appraisal of sovereign credit ratings in emerging marketsWilliam, Glen 09 1900 (has links)
Despite the meaningful impact that credit ratings have on sovereign countries and financial
markets, research has not fully explored the determinants of these ratings in many emerging markets
(EMs). The aim of this study was to identify and quantify the extent to which different
macroeconomic factors impact sovereign ratings. Based on a review of the literature, an analysis of
rating agencies' methodology papers, and economic intuition, it was hypothesised that measures of
wealth, economic growth, monetary stability, fiscal trajectory, external accounts and governance
would predict EM credit ratings. This hypothesis was largely supported by regression models that
anticipated actual ratings with predictive power comparable to extant research, but across a much
broader set of EM countries. By identifying the key drivers of these ratings, the current research
suggests several areas that policymakers can address to improve their own sovereign ratings. / Economics / M. Com (Economics)
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