The objectives of this thesis are to: (1) examine if the resource curse exists in the context of Libya; (2) assess the role of institutions in avoiding or minimising the resource curse, and; (3) evaluate institutional and economic reforms required, and the best options to diversify the economy from oil, hence avoid the resource curse in Libya. To achieve these, three approaches are applied, (i) a three country comparative analysis; (ii) Libya country-level time-series analysis, and; (iii) institutional descriptive analysis. This thesis uses time-series data and annual datasets covering 1970-2010. Johansen’s co-integration is used to establish the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables in the models. The Johansen co-integration test, based on the Trace and Maximum Eigenvalue statistics, is applied. In the first approach, the three case studies included in the study are Nigeria, Norway and UAE, with outcomes suggesting that Norway managed to avoid the Dutch disease, the UAE show no major signs of the resource curse, Norway and the UAE have largely managed to overcome Dutch disease, while Nigeria suffers a management curse. The first model suggests that Libya may experience a resource curse, but this may not be as a result of an appreciation of the real exchange rate. A 1% increase in the oil price will cause the Libyan exchange rate to increase (depreciate) by 1.41%. The country could potentially suffer from Dutch disease, but no evidence can be brought by the first model alone. In an attempt to reinforce the first analysis, the second model examined the sectoral impacts of the Dutch disease. Three relations are estimated; tradable sectors (manufacturing and agricultural), and non-tradable sectors (construction and services). These were all found to have been affected by oil revenue. This therefore confirms the existence of Dutch disease in Libya. The descriptive statistics analysis is used alongside five governance indicators: political stability, government effectiveness, and regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption. It is concluded that the quality of institutions in Libya affects economic growth negatively. The study holds several implications for policy-makers.

Local Content is an oil sector governance and sustainability policy that aims at check-mating the dominance of the foreign oil companies in host countries, and encouraging the participation of the local oil firms in the petroleum value-chain. It is a burgeoning concept applied in the upstream petroleum contracts in the developing petro states. This study was conducted to examine the local content accounting, accountability and governance of the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) and the five major International Oil Companies (IOCs) operating in Nigeria (Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Total and Agip). The soft and hard accountability of the two principal actors were determined. The work drew on the Chatham House Guidelines for Good Governance in Emerging Oil and Gas Producers (2013) to derive its conceptual and analytical models. The study used the convergent parallel design and a combination of the three accounting paradigms to draw its conclusions. Thematic analysis, descriptive and inferential statistics including the post hoc Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests with Bonferroni Corrected Alpha, and the logistic regression tests were used. The study also applied the mechanistic content analysis methodology on fifty sustainability reports of the selected IOCs in line with the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) and the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association (IPIECA) sustainability reporting guidelines. Disclosure index and paired-samples t-test were used to determine the existence and trends in the IOCs’ local content disclosure practices before and after the enactment of the Nigeria’s local content law. The study found the local content policy to be an accountabilitybased sustainability driver in the Nigerian petroleum sector. Although the NCDMB’s performance was favourable to a large extent, the study found that corruption, fronting, and non-disclosure of the beneficial ownership of some oil firms remained the major challenges of local content in Nigeria. An expectation gap between the Board and the stakeholders on the financial accountability was established. The study found moderate and consistent local content disclosure indices of the periods before and after the Nigeria’s local content law, but higher volumetric disclosure in the period after the law, signifying likely impact of the local content law on the IOC’s voluntary disclosure. It was recommended that the Board should tighten up its regulatory responsibilities and avoid questionable practices. It was also suggested that the Nigerian local content rules should incorporate more incentives such as unringfencing and crossfencing of upstream costs to encourage more investment. The study also suggested that the accounting standard-setting bodies should issue dedicated accounting standards or expand the existing IFRS 8 and IAS 21 to comprehensively address the preparation and presentation of local content information in the annual financial statements.

The highly competitive market in the oil refining industry forces refiners look for more detailed information of both feedstocks and products to achieve the optimal economic performance. Due to stricter environmental legislations, the molecular level characterisation has been investigated by various researchers and shows promising advantages in modern refinery design and operation. Although various molecular characterisation methods have been developed, there is an unavoidable trade-off between keeping astronomical molecule details and practicality in industrial applications. In the meantime, many of these methodologies have different characteristics and different focuses according to a particular application purpose. Our aim is hence to tackle the problems of developing manageable and practical technical solutions for molecular characterisation of petroleum fractions for vary refinery processes. A pseudo-component based approach is developed within a modified MTHS (Molecular Type Homologous Series) matrix framework (Peng, 1999) to represent the molecular information of a particular refining stream. This proposed methodology incorporates both molecular type and pseudo-component information by the conjunction of homologous series and boiling points in the matrix framework. To increase the usability of this method, a 3-parameter gamma distribution function is introduced to describe the composition of each structural molecular type. Typical PIONA (paraffin, iso-paraffin, olefin, naphthene, aromatic) analysis, ratios between each homologous types and the percentage of particular carbon type are considered as well as the distillation curve and the density of a stream. More strict product specifications and environmental legislations make strong restriction to the benzene and aromatics content in gasoline products, which motivate refiners to understand, characterise and simulate gasoline catalytic reforming on molecular-level. In this work, kinetic and reactor model of naphtha catalytic reforming is developed based on the proposed MTHS method. The naphtha feedstock composition is represented by the MTHS matrix, and a kinetic network is constructed according to conversions among matrix elements. A process model proposed by Wu (2010) is employed for reforming modelling. The proposed model is then applied to a bench-scale semi-regenerative catalytic reforming unit, which contains 3 fixed-bed reactors, for validation. The influences of essential operating conditions, such as reactor inlet temperature, pressure and weight hourly space velocity (WHSV), on the product distribution and quality are explored. The developed characterisation is also applied in gasoline blending modelling. A molecular-level nonlinear gasoline blending model is developed based on proposed MTHS method with validation. Key properties such as Octane Numbers (ONs) and RVP are blended by molecular matrix elements, and the influence of molecular composition on bulk properties is obvious. A case of recipe optimisation is studied to show the applicability of the proposed method. The implementation of the developed MTHS method for catalytic reforming and gasoline blending demonstrates the compatibility when characterising different petroleum streams, and provides a common platform to simulate and optimise refining operations on the same molecular basis.

Nigeria and the United Kingdom are leading oil producers within their region. Both countries are linked by their exploration and production maturity within their regions and the fact that they produce similar oil grades. Their institutional similarities and their economic status as developed and developing economies provide the platform upon which this study basis its comparative investigation. On account of the oil price phenomenon and oil supply concerns by way of reserves, this study investigates the effect of the Hotelling theory, the Hubbert theory and Engineering decline curve theory on actual production rates within Nigeria and the United Kingdom. It develops individual models for both countries, applying each theory to each country to analyse the individual effect and the effect in comparison to one another. The level of adherence of each country to these production theories is measured, following which a combination of all three theories is applied to both country cases to quantify the level of significance and relationship to actual production behaviour. The results leave us with the understanding that the Hubbert theory does indeed capture the behaviour of production in both countries even where it was not expected in the case of Nigeria. The reserve constraint remains a key factor in future production plans for both countries. The results of the empirical analysis provide evidence of strong support in the United Kingdom for the Hotelling theory and weak support in the case of Nigeria. Oil price also remains a key factor in production modelling, though less so in the case of Nigeria. The engineering modelling approach on the other hand failed to explain Nigeria’s production profile, while it captured that of the UK; indicating that production in Nigeria is yet to decline. This result is corroborated by the projected peak production date seen in the Hubbert forecast model for Nigeria, and the weaker support Nigeria shows for the Hubbert theory. The study concludes by developing a combined model using all three theories to quantitatively analyse which of them best explains the country oil production profile. The results lead us to conclude that despite the fact that there is weak support for a production theory; an empirical analysis of the data does show that the relationship may not be insignificant. The augmentation along with the combination of the production models sheds more light on actual behaviour as it provides a more in-depth understanding on actual oil production behaviour.

The playing field upon which actors, both state and non-state, develop strategies to secure existing supplies of oil and seek access to new ones is as systemically, politically and strategically complex is as it is geographically vast. In considering this activity, the terminology used by pundits and journalists to describe the significance of issues such as oil demand, the complexities of access to petroleum and concerns over security threats to supplies of oil is familiar. Juxtapositions such as the ‘geopolitics of oil', ‘energy geopolitics', the ‘geopolitics of resource wars' and the ‘geopolitics of oil and gas' are all familiar. But what do they mean when they use ‘geopolitics' in this context? Thus, by extension, can petroleum geopolitics - a hybrid conceptual construction used in this thesis - be disassembled into its component parts, analysed and systematically understood. This is the aim of this thesis. This thesis contends that the very nature of oil and gas reserves, the processes of exploration and production, and the means that govern and characterise the transportation of petroleum overland and by sea is inherently geopolitical - that some core features of geopolitical theory and key geopolitical concepts are pivotal in determining the ontology and process of the international oil business. Indeed, so central has oil been to the advancement of industrial capacity, technology, warfare, transportation and economic prosperity of states since the 20th century, it could be argued that petroleum is the single largest determinant of the geopolitics that characterises the modern international system. In order to address the interrelationship and correlations between core aspects of the petroleum industry and causal geopolitical phenomena, I begin by advancing a framework of analysis that systematically binds key geopolitical features and concepts – specifically: Spatial Phenomena; Environmental Ontology; Territorial Access; Geopolitical Features; State and Non-state Concepts; and, Strategic Resources and Geopolitics - with examples of empirical findings revealed in subsequent chapters in the thesis. Fundamentally, this process works to assess causality and correlations between geopolitical phenomena such as space and distance, sovereignty, territory, boundaries, chokepoints, resource nationalism, transnationalism, resource security and conflict, and the features and processes inherent in petroleum reserves and the exploration, production and transportation of oil and gas. The framework is followed with a sequential analysis of the three empirical foci of the project: the ontology of oil and natural gas reserves; the planning and processes of exploration and production; and, the processes of the conveyance petroleum. I have concentrated my research to activities within Eurasia, which comprises the traditional continents of Europe and Asia, and the Indo-Pacific maritime realm, which extends eastwards from the Red Sea to the western Pacific Rim. After systematically assessing the empirical findings and examining key areas of geopolitical theory, I conclude that there is an identifiable and logical correlation between geopolitical phenomena, petroleum reserves, and the means to produce and distribute oil and gas between source and market.

Wassa in southwest Ghana was the location of the largest mining sector in colonial British West Africa. The gold mines provide an excellent case study of how labour was mobilised for large-scale production immediately after the legal end of slavery, in the context of an expansive independent labour market. Divided into three sections, this thesis examines the practice of indirect labour recruitment for the mines during the formative years of colonial rule; the incorporation of ‘traditional’ credit relationships into ‘modern’ commerce. The starting point for this study is the analysis of precolonial strategies for mobilising labour. Part one examines the most pervasive and coercive employer-employee relationship in precolonial West Africa, namely the master-slave relationship. Even enslaved Africans could expect individual economic opportunity, and related to such, debt protection, and the power of labourers increased significantly after abolition. Starting in the 1870s, mine management found that the most effective way of recruiting long-term wage earners was through headmen; African authorities who established temporary patronage relationships with a group of labourers by offering them credit. Moreover, administrative and court records indicate that there were various forms of headship, some which the mines managed to impose greater regulation over than others. Therefore, part two demonstrates that issues of cost and control of recruitment differed depending on whether the labour recruiter had been furnished with the capital of a mining firm to conduct his business, whether he had done so with his own personal savings, or whether he was in the employment of the colonial government. Finally, part three takes a comparative look at headship and recruitment through rural chiefs, which began in 1906; two successive forms of non-free wage labour mobilisation. In 1909, mine management reverted to the headship system that many colonial commentators regarded as being more compatible with the colonial political order, albeit under considerably stricter regulations.

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Crude oil prices impact the world economy and are thus of interest to economic experts and politicians. Oil price’s volatile behaviour, which has moulded today’s world economy, society and politics, has motivated and continues to excite researchers for further study. This volatile behaviour is predicted to prompt more new and interesting research challenges. In the present research, machine learning and computational intelligence utilising historical quantitative data, with the linguistic element of online news services, are used to predict crude oil prices via five different models: (1) the Hierarchical Conceptual (HC) model; (2) the Artificial Neural Network-Quantitative (ANN-Q) model; (3) the Linguistic model; (4) the Rule-based Expert model; and, finally, (5) the Hybridisation of Linguistic and Quantitative (LQ) model. First, to understand the behaviour of the crude oil price market, the HC model functions as a platform to retrieve information that explains the behaviour of the market. This is retrieved from Google News articles using the keyword “Crude oil price”. Through a systematic approach, price data are classified into categories that explain the crude oil price’s level of impact on the market. The price data classification distinguishes crucial behaviour information contained in the articles. These distinguished data features ranked hierarchically according to the level of impact and used as reference to discover the numeric data implemented in model (2). Model (2) is developed to validate the features retrieved in model (1). It introduces the Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) technique as an alternative to conventional techniques used for forecasting the crude oil market. The BPNN technique is proven in model (2) to have produced more accurate and competitive results. Likewise, the features retrieved from model (1) are also validated and proven to cause market volatility. In model (3), a more systematic approach is introduced to extract the features from the news corpus. This approach applies a content utilisation technique to news articles and mines news sentiments by applying a fuzzy grammar fragment extraction. To extract the features from the news articles systematically, a domain-customised ‘dictionary’ containing grammar definitions is built beforehand. These retrieved features are used as the linguistic data to predict the market’s behaviour with crude oil price. A decision tree is also produced from this model which hierarchically delineates the events (i.e., the market’s rules) that made the market volatile, and later resulted in the production of model (4). Then, model (5) is built to complement the linguistic character performed in model (3) from the numeric prediction model made in model (2). To conclude, the hybridisation of these two models and the integration of models (1) to (5) in this research imitates the execution of crude oil market’s regulators in calculating their risk of actions before executing a price hedge in the market, wherein risk calculation is based on the ‘facts’ (quantitative data) and ‘rumours’ (linguistic data) collected. The hybridisation of quantitative and linguistic data in this study has shown promising accuracy outcomes, evidenced by the optimum value of directional accuracy and the minimum value of errors obtained.

The main aim of this thesis is to investigate the ways in which the authoritarian regime in post-Soviet Kazakhstan maintained itself in power from 1991 until 2005. This study endeavours to uncover the palette of the regime’s methods by analysing the ways in which it went about controlling the oil industry – an industry with which the political and economical future of Kazakhstan is inseparably intertwined. The empirical section of this study investigates the interplay between the regime and the actors located in and around two cores: the National Oil Company and the oil-rich areas. This thesis focuses in particular on instances where players involved with the oil industry, whether directly or indirectly, attempted to challenge the regime’s authority in those two centres either due to greed or grievances. It is argued that these moments of crisis reveal the regime’s maintenance techniques, and can precipitate the deployment of new methods of maintenance in response to them. In order to account for the techniques that the Kazakh ruling regime applied in structuring its relationships with the oil industry, this thesis shifts the emphasis from the prevalent zhuz-horde, tribe, and clan-based approaches to Kazakh politics towards formal (corporatism) and informal (patron-client) mechanisms of control.