This dissertation examines the causal relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth (GDP) in SADC countries. The study investigates, within a panel data context, whether causation is short-term, long-term or both; and explores whether the causal relationship between the two variables differs according to income level. The study covered a panel of 15 SADC countries over the period 1980-2012. In order to assess whether the causal relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth is dependent on the level of income, the study divided the SADC countries into two groups, namely, the low-income and the middleincome countries. The study used the recently developed panel data analysis methods to examine this causal relationship. It adopted a three stage approach, which consists of panel unit root, panel cointegration and Granger causality to examine the dynamic causal relationship between the two variables. Panel unit root results show that both variables in the two SADC country groups were integrated of order one. Panel cointegration tests showed that the variables for low-income country group were not cointegrated, while the variables for the middle-income countries were cointegrated. Since the low-income country group panels were not cointegrated, Grangercausality tests were conducted within a VAR framework, while causality tests for the middleincome country group were conducted within an ECM framework. Panel Granger causality results for the low-income countries showed no evidence of causality in either direction. However, for the middle-income countries’ panel, there was evidence of a unidirectional causal flow from GDP to FDI in both the long- and short- run. The study concludes that the FDI-led growth hypothesis does not apply to SADC countries. The results imply that the recent high economic growth rates recorded in the SADC region, especially middle-income countries, have been attracting FDI. In other words, it is economic growth that drives FDI inflows into the SADC region, and not vice versa. These findings have profound policy implications for the SADC region at large and individual countries. / Economics / MCOM (Economics)

This dissertation examines the causal relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth (GDP) in SADC countries. The study investigates, within a panel data context, whether causation is short-term, long-term or both; and explores whether the causal relationship between the two variables differs according to income level. The study covered a panel of 15 SADC countries over the period 1980-2012. In order to assess whether the causal relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth is dependent on the level of income, the study divided the SADC countries into two groups, namely, the low-income and the middleincome countries. The study used the recently developed panel data analysis methods to examine this causal relationship. It adopted a three stage approach, which consists of panel unit root, panel cointegration and Granger causality to examine the dynamic causal relationship between the two variables. Panel unit root results show that both variables in the two SADC country groups were integrated of order one. Panel cointegration tests showed that the variables for low-income country group were not cointegrated, while the variables for the middle-income countries were cointegrated. Since the low-income country group panels were not cointegrated, Grangercausality tests were conducted within a VAR framework, while causality tests for the middleincome country group were conducted within an ECM framework. Panel Granger causality results for the low-income countries showed no evidence of causality in either direction. However, for the middle-income countries’ panel, there was evidence of a unidirectional causal flow from GDP to FDI in both the long- and short- run. The study concludes that the FDI-led growth hypothesis does not apply to SADC countries. The results imply that the recent high economic growth rates recorded in the SADC region, especially middle-income countries, have been attracting FDI. In other words, it is economic growth that drives FDI inflows into the SADC region, and not vice versa. These findings have profound policy implications for the SADC region at large and individual countries. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

Financial liberalisation, through increasing investment as well as the average productivity of capital, should stimulate economic growth, or so the theory goes. Bank lending unfortunately suffers adverse selection and moral hazard effects, to which the establishment and expansion of stock markets has been offered as a remedy. However, research from developing country stock markets have shown that in many cases these markets did not complement the effects of credit market liberalisation but in rather important aspects subverted them. Countries that implemented credit market liberalisation and raised real interest rates only increased the price of debt capital rather than all capital. This caused a share price boom in many of them. When the price of equity capital fell it seriously undermined and indeed allowed large private corporations to skip altogether the main channel of high interest rates through which the theoretical McKinnon-Shaw effects were to operate. This study asks the research question of what effect the expansion of the South African stock exchange has had for its economic development. It makes use of a general empirical model to explain the relationship between financial development and real output. The model comprises indicators for growth, banking system development, stock market volatility; and, stock market development through a conglomerate index that accounts for market size, liquidity and integration with world capital markets. Quarterly data from 1989 to 2001 is analysed based on the null hypothesis that, as far as financial architecture is concerned, the development of the JSE Securities Exchange has stimulated the country's economic growth. This study found a negative and statistically significant relation between stock market development and economic growth. It suggests that while the JSE Securities Exchange is a relatively large stock market it is the presence of thin trading that prevents the proposed benefits of market development from accruing to the economy. Thus the hypothesis is rejected. However, since the only stable cointegrating vector is between growth and banking sector development, it recommends that by expanding their universal banking functions, the present banking structure, though oligopolistic, may be better suited to act as a catalyst for growth. / Business Management / D. Comm.