Much of the discourse on cultural change has been descriptive and explanatory, with few attempts to be predictive. Where indicators of and buffers to change are identified, they tend only to be post-event assessable. The need for a tool with strong predictive power is fundamental to cultural (and environmental) impact assessment and the rationale behind this developmental work. Focusing on traditional cultures and their environmental context, and based on a case study of the Juatinga Ecological Reserve, Brasil, this research advances knowledge on modelling cultural and environmental changes, and how to manage these changes for accepted goals. A heuristic tool is presented for assessing the impacts of pressures on a culture and its related environment as well as the efficacy of management responses. This tool is associated with methods to assist in developing predictive models representing the change processes. The change model building process involves consulting stakeholders as a way of integrating different perceptions, to identify pressures, responses and links associated with cultural and environmental change. This assists in creating a co-learning environment, which facilitates communication between stakeholders. The change modelling approach permits incorporation of the complexity and uncertainty of the system represented, and enables scenario analyses. These allow expected local and flow-on impacts of management interventions to be tested. This approach is more efficient than stand-alone performance indicators that do not allow for the synergic impacts of management interventions to be observed and assessed. Using the models representing the cultural and environmental change processes of the Caiçaras of the Juatinga Ecological Reserve, this research identifies that tourism is a major pressure for change (at that locality). This study also identified that tourist numbers at new and small tourism destinations, as well as on a continental scale, can be forecast using exponential and polynomial functions. Yet, tourism flow may be perturbed at any given time by, for example, acts of violence and when the type of marketing changes. In addition, tourist numbers cannot be greater than the total population, therefore it cannot grow indefinitely as exponential and polynomial functions suggest. Hence, the use of exponential and polynomial functions to forecast tourist numbers is more reliable for short periods, such as four or five years, and when based on six or more sets of data points. The greatest contribution of this research to the cultural change discourse is its innovative approach to study, forecast and manage cultural and environmental changes. The continuation of this research may lead to identifying general theories relating pressures and responses to indicators of cultural and environmental changes.

Much of the discourse on cultural change has been descriptive and explanatory, with few attempts to be predictive. Where indicators of and buffers to change are identified, they tend only to be post-event assessable. The need for a tool with strong predictive power is fundamental to cultural (and environmental) impact assessment and the rationale behind this developmental work. Focusing on traditional cultures and their environmental context, and based on a case study of the Juatinga Ecological Reserve, Brasil, this research advances knowledge on modelling cultural and environmental changes, and how to manage these changes for accepted goals. A heuristic tool is presented for assessing the impacts of pressures on a culture and its related environment as well as the efficacy of management responses. This tool is associated with methods to assist in developing predictive models representing the change processes. The change model building process involves consulting stakeholders as a way of integrating different perceptions, to identify pressures, responses and links associated with cultural and environmental change. This assists in creating a co-learning environment, which facilitates communication between stakeholders. The change modelling approach permits incorporation of the complexity and uncertainty of the system represented, and enables scenario analyses. These allow expected local and flow-on impacts of management interventions to be tested. This approach is more efficient than stand-alone performance indicators that do not allow for the synergic impacts of management interventions to be observed and assessed. Using the models representing the cultural and environmental change processes of the Caiçaras of the Juatinga Ecological Reserve, this research identifies that tourism is a major pressure for change (at that locality). This study also identified that tourist numbers at new and small tourism destinations, as well as on a continental scale, can be forecast using exponential and polynomial functions. Yet, tourism flow may be perturbed at any given time by, for example, acts of violence and when the type of marketing changes. In addition, tourist numbers cannot be greater than the total population, therefore it cannot grow indefinitely as exponential and polynomial functions suggest. Hence, the use of exponential and polynomial functions to forecast tourist numbers is more reliable for short periods, such as four or five years, and when based on six or more sets of data points. The greatest contribution of this research to the cultural change discourse is its innovative approach to study, forecast and manage cultural and environmental changes. The continuation of this research may lead to identifying general theories relating pressures and responses to indicators of cultural and environmental changes.

Empirical studies have established that tourism is a major determinant of economic growth and that international air services have a beneficial effect on the growth and development of an economy. It has also been argued that trade and public enterprise reforms in the service sectors, undertaken to a greater extent in high income countries, have had a positive impact on the sectors performances. This study analyses several hypotheses relating to Fiji’s tourism and air transport service industries. First the study examines the contribution of tourism exports to economic growth in the case of Fiji. Second, the study analyses whether the tourism reform adopted by Fiji in 1999 under the World Trade Organization’s General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) has impacted on total tourism export performance. Third, the aviation-service growth nexus is investigated. Lastly, the effect of the aviation public enterprise reform activities on the export performance of air services is evaluated. Using time series annual data from 1968 to 2006, the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag. methodology has been utilized to estimate the contribution of each service sector to Fiji’s total service output. The results show that the tourism is a major determinant of growth in Fiji and that the aviation service-growth hypothesis is also valid for Fiji. The empirical results show that both the trade reforms in tourism and the pro-competitive measures undertaken in the airline industry, amongst other determinants, have not significantly created an impact on the respective export performance of tourism and air services. These findings provide key policy implications in the light of capitalizing on services exports as a major source of growth, particularly in developing island countries such as Fiji and the need to facilitate the strengthening of the market to boost the export performance of tourism and air services.

In the last few decades, “ecotourism” has emerged as a much talked about topic that is frequently linked to the term “sustainable development”. Despite the fact that the definition of ecotourism has been expanded from primarily pristine nature-based areas to modified areas, relatively few studies have been devoted to evaluating the relationship between “ecotourism” and “sustainable development” in those destinations. To address this research need, this thesis attempts to analyse the potential of ecotourism as a strategy for sustainable development, where it does not depend only on nature-based opportunities. Relevant literature on the topics of ecotourism and sustainable development was examined to develop a framework to assess ecotourism in a case study area. The case study employed was Tengtou village, China, which is one of the earliest national eco-villages. Tengtou hosted 76,200 tourists in 2006. Data was collected using qualitative methods, which included semi-structured interviews, informal discussions, focus groups, participant observation and questionnaire surveys. The research revealed that ecotourism has brought a variety of favourable impacts, and the local people hold optimistic attitudes about ecotourism, which indicate the feasibility of the ecotourism industry and the comparative success it has achieved. On the other hand, the research also found several potentially adverse effects, which suggest that ecotourism does not yet make a full contribution to local sustainable development. This thesis concludes that effective regulation and sound planning play a significant role in enabling the sustainability of ecotourism. Meanwhile, the importance of local people’s active involvement at different levels of ecotourism development in ensuring ecotourism’s success, in the long term, was also revealed. This issue of local participation, strongly pushed in the international ecotourism literature, is not something which has characterised most ecotourism initiatives in China to date. Further, considering the increasing number of tourists, the management of tourists and the expansion of physical infrastructure need to be strengthened in the research area.

Antarctica is one of the most beautiful and remote places on the planet. The moniker of being the highest, driest, coldest, iciest, windiest, most remote continent, surrounded by the stormiest ocean is well deserved, yet it also acts as quite a draw for visitors. Despite the fact that visitor numbers have been steadily rising for the past 15 years, very little is empirically known about the experience these visitors have, particularly outside of the Antarctic Peninsula region. This lack of understanding is particularly detrimental from the perspective of visitor management, as is being discovered by agencies worldwide. As such, the aim of this thesis is to report on a study of visitor experiences in the Ross Sea region of Antarctica. Visitors are defined as those who come into physical contact with the continent, and whose primary activity and purpose is simply "being there." Visitors are a wider population than just commercial tourists aboard cruise ships; visitors are not passengers on commercial overflights, the scientists or base and support staff. Experience is defined as a longitudinal period—looking at visitors well in advance of their visit, throughout their time on site, and following up back at their homes. The Ross Sea region is essentially equivalent to New Zealand's Ross Dependency, a section of the Antarctic "pie" from the South Pole to 60°S, bounded by approximately 150°E and 150°W. Using a three-phase methodology to examine the cycle of experience, the purpose of this study is to compare groups of visitors with four organisations through this cycle, and analyse for change or transition as a result of their visit. The visitors were participants, to varying degrees, in a number of data-gathering methods during the 2002–2003 or 2003–2004 seasons. Such methods included: self-administered surveys sent to the respondents' home (up to three months in advance of the trip); personal narratives and journals while on the trip (regardless of trip length; 4–28 days); in-depth interviews held in Christchurch directly before and after the trip when possible; and email surveys (two to three months following the visit). In 2003–2004, a supplemental season of data was collected that included a researcher familiarisation visit, participant observation, and informal interviews at Scott Base. These supplemental data helped shape the researcher's own thoughts and thus comments in the Discussion sections. Results indicate both similarities and differences as compared to previous research; key findings include: scenery was a strong motivator and component of image; expectations were for a safe and professional learning; mood was positive throughout all phases; visitation was both acceptable and problematic; the environment was important, even in advance of the visit; education was an essential benefit of the visit; the Ross Sea region was an impressive and awe-inspiring locale; organisational differences were apparent when discussing people and the role of transportation to the continent; historic huts were uniformly amazing sites for the feelings they instil; expectations were virtually always exceeded; awareness changed over the experience; sharing of awareness and teaching from one's learning had occurred; action may or may not have occurred on various specific issues, but the label of ambassador was respondent-perceived to be acceptable. This study concludes with a number of implications for theory, methods, and logistics, which will hopefully lead to future research that is much wider in scope (geographically), but equally inclusive in terms of methods and ability to utilize and critique theories built outside of purely tourism research.

This thesis looks at the potential for using tourism as a poverty alleviation strategy in the context of Vietnam and the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). The theoretical basis for this research stems for the growing recognition within development rhetoric of the place of tourism as a key industry in many developing nations, and the formation of a Pro-Poor Tourism (PPT) approach. The fieldwork section of this thesis looks at the barriers and opportunities for those in the poorer communities of Lang Co, a small town on the cental east coast of Vietnam, to supply the burgeoning tourism industry with locally produced products that are compatible with their current livelihood strategies. Results show that there are many opportunities for the poor to benefit from the rapidly growing tourism industry in Vietnam and the region. There is a strong recognition of tourism in national and regional development strategies, there is a rich cultural, environmental and social context driving the tourism industry and there are several initiatives taking place, such as the Vietnamese National Tourism Law, which include many elements of pro-poor tourism principles. However, this thesis has found many barriers also prevent poorer people from benefiting from tourism. In the case of Lang Co, the poor were often limited in their ability to participate in the industry by debt and lack of access to credit, lack of education and training opportunities, a declining natural resource base and by a lack of awareness and participation in the planning of the tourism industry. More widely, the tourism industry is centrally driven and focused on high growth and large infrastructure type developments which in some cases conflict with the principles of PPT and the ability of people at the ground level to participate. This research highlights the complexity of attempting to use tourism as a poverty reduction strategy given the wide range of stakeholders involved and various levels involved the planning and implementation of the tourism industry. The potential applicability of a concept of pro-poor tourism in a rapidly changing context such as Vietnam is contingent of the ability of the poor to have influence on an industry which is having an increasing effect on their lives and livelihoods.

Much of the discourse on cultural change has been descriptive and explanatory, with few attempts to be predictive. Where indicators of and buffers to change are identified, they tend only to be post-event assessable. The need for a tool with strong predictive power is fundamental to cultural (and environmental) impact assessment and the rationale behind this developmental work. Focusing on traditional cultures and their environmental context, and based on a case study of the Juatinga Ecological Reserve, Brasil, this research advances knowledge on modelling cultural and environmental changes, and how to manage these changes for accepted goals. A heuristic tool is presented for assessing the impacts of pressures on a culture and its related environment as well as the efficacy of management responses. This tool is associated with methods to assist in developing predictive models representing the change processes. The change model building process involves consulting stakeholders as a way of integrating different perceptions, to identify pressures, responses and links associated with cultural and environmental change. This assists in creating a co-learning environment, which facilitates communication between stakeholders. The change modelling approach permits incorporation of the complexity and uncertainty of the system represented, and enables scenario analyses. These allow expected local and flow-on impacts of management interventions to be tested. This approach is more efficient than stand-alone performance indicators that do not allow for the synergic impacts of management interventions to be observed and assessed. Using the models representing the cultural and environmental change processes of the Caiçaras of the Juatinga Ecological Reserve, this research identifies that tourism is a major pressure for change (at that locality). This study also identified that tourist numbers at new and small tourism destinations, as well as on a continental scale, can be forecast using exponential and polynomial functions. Yet, tourism flow may be perturbed at any given time by, for example, acts of violence and when the type of marketing changes. In addition, tourist numbers cannot be greater than the total population, therefore it cannot grow indefinitely as exponential and polynomial functions suggest. Hence, the use of exponential and polynomial functions to forecast tourist numbers is more reliable for short periods, such as four or five years, and when based on six or more sets of data points. The greatest contribution of this research to the cultural change discourse is its innovative approach to study, forecast and manage cultural and environmental changes. The continuation of this research may lead to identifying general theories relating pressures and responses to indicators of cultural and environmental changes.

Much of the discourse on cultural change has been descriptive and explanatory, with few attempts to be predictive. Where indicators of and buffers to change are identified, they tend only to be post-event assessable. The need for a tool with strong predictive power is fundamental to cultural (and environmental) impact assessment and the rationale behind this developmental work. Focusing on traditional cultures and their environmental context, and based on a case study of the Juatinga Ecological Reserve, Brasil, this research advances knowledge on modelling cultural and environmental changes, and how to manage these changes for accepted goals. A heuristic tool is presented for assessing the impacts of pressures on a culture and its related environment as well as the efficacy of management responses. This tool is associated with methods to assist in developing predictive models representing the change processes. The change model building process involves consulting stakeholders as a way of integrating different perceptions, to identify pressures, responses and links associated with cultural and environmental change. This assists in creating a co-learning environment, which facilitates communication between stakeholders. The change modelling approach permits incorporation of the complexity and uncertainty of the system represented, and enables scenario analyses. These allow expected local and flow-on impacts of management interventions to be tested. This approach is more efficient than stand-alone performance indicators that do not allow for the synergic impacts of management interventions to be observed and assessed. Using the models representing the cultural and environmental change processes of the Caiçaras of the Juatinga Ecological Reserve, this research identifies that tourism is a major pressure for change (at that locality). This study also identified that tourist numbers at new and small tourism destinations, as well as on a continental scale, can be forecast using exponential and polynomial functions. Yet, tourism flow may be perturbed at any given time by, for example, acts of violence and when the type of marketing changes. In addition, tourist numbers cannot be greater than the total population, therefore it cannot grow indefinitely as exponential and polynomial functions suggest. Hence, the use of exponential and polynomial functions to forecast tourist numbers is more reliable for short periods, such as four or five years, and when based on six or more sets of data points. The greatest contribution of this research to the cultural change discourse is its innovative approach to study, forecast and manage cultural and environmental changes. The continuation of this research may lead to identifying general theories relating pressures and responses to indicators of cultural and environmental changes.

Empirical studies have established that tourism is a major determinant of economic growth and that international air services have a beneficial effect on the growth and development of an economy. It has also been argued that trade and public enterprise reforms in the service sectors, undertaken to a greater extent in high income countries, have had a positive impact on the sectors performances. This study analyses several hypotheses relating to Fiji’s tourism and air transport service industries. First the study examines the contribution of tourism exports to economic growth in the case of Fiji. Second, the study analyses whether the tourism reform adopted by Fiji in 1999 under the World Trade Organization’s General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) has impacted on total tourism export performance. Third, the aviation-service growth nexus is investigated. Lastly, the effect of the aviation public enterprise reform activities on the export performance of air services is evaluated. Using time series annual data from 1968 to 2006, the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag. methodology has been utilized to estimate the contribution of each service sector to Fiji’s total service output. The results show that the tourism is a major determinant of growth in Fiji and that the aviation service-growth hypothesis is also valid for Fiji. The empirical results show that both the trade reforms in tourism and the pro-competitive measures undertaken in the airline industry, amongst other determinants, have not significantly created an impact on the respective export performance of tourism and air services. These findings provide key policy implications in the light of capitalizing on services exports as a major source of growth, particularly in developing island countries such as Fiji and the need to facilitate the strengthening of the market to boost the export performance of tourism and air services.

Empirical studies have established that tourism is a major determinant of economic growth and that international air services have a beneficial effect on the growth and development of an economy. It has also been argued that trade and public enterprise reforms in the service sectors, undertaken to a greater extent in high income countries, have had a positive impact on the sectors performances. This study analyses several hypotheses relating to Fiji’s tourism and air transport service industries. First the study examines the contribution of tourism exports to economic growth in the case of Fiji. Second, the study analyses whether the tourism reform adopted by Fiji in 1999 under the World Trade Organization’s General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) has impacted on total tourism export performance. Third, the aviation-service growth nexus is investigated. Lastly, the effect of the aviation public enterprise reform activities on the export performance of air services is evaluated. Using time series annual data from 1968 to 2006, the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag. methodology has been utilized to estimate the contribution of each service sector to Fiji’s total service output. The results show that the tourism is a major determinant of growth in Fiji and that the aviation service-growth hypothesis is also valid for Fiji. The empirical results show that both the trade reforms in tourism and the pro-competitive measures undertaken in the airline industry, amongst other determinants, have not significantly created an impact on the respective export performance of tourism and air services. These findings provide key policy implications in the light of capitalizing on services exports as a major source of growth, particularly in developing island countries such as Fiji and the need to facilitate the strengthening of the market to boost the export performance of tourism and air services.