The extraordinary conditions of a disaster, require the mobilisation of all available resources, inducing the rush of humanitarian partners into the affected area. This phenomenon called the proliferation of actors, causes serious problems during the disaster response phase including the oversupply, duplicated efforts, lack of planning. The aim of this research is to provide a solution to reduce the partner proliferation problem. To that end the main research question is put forward as “How to reduce the proliferation of partners in a disaster response”? Panel analysis of the historic record of 4,252 natural onset disasters between 1980 to 2013 via regression analysis, MA and AHP gives rise to the formation of a predictive decision-making platform called PREDIS. It is capable of predicting the human impact of the disaster (fatality, injured, homeless) of up to 3% of errors and enables the decision makers to estimate the required needs for each disaster and prioritises them based on the disaster type and socio-economics of the affected country. It further renders it possible to rank and optimise the desired partners based on the decision maker’s preferences. Verification of the PREDIS through a simulation game design using a sample group of decision makers, show that this technique enables the user to decide within one hour after the disaster strike using the widely available data at the time of the disaster. It also enables non-experts to decide almost identically to experts in terms of the similarity of the choices and the speed of the decision. The lack of an extensive database for the potential humanitarian partners from which to choose, is the limitation of this research in addition to the lack of standardised set of minimum requirements for the suitable partners. The model is also as strong as its data feed which is inconsistent in various humanitarian sources.

Bangladesh is a country at the heart of debates about climate change and migration. This thesis probes to what extent climate- and environment-related hazards influence decisions of villagers in Bangladesh to stay or move out of their place. It considers their experiences of hazards such as cyclones, droughts and floods as proxies of what might happen in the future as a result of changing climate; and probes how they respond when their livelihoods are affected by these stresses and shocks. The qualitative analysis in this thesis shows that villagers from three hazard-prone districts of Bangladesh –Nawabganj, Munshiganj and Satkhira – often migrate for better livelihoods. However, they usually do not associate their movement to the hazards. At the same time, the quantitative analysis shows that experiences of drought and cyclone positively influence migration outside the district. Though riverbank erosion and flood negatively influence longdistance migration, people affected by erosion tend to move locally. Logit models suggest that though migration is largely driven by poverty and income needs, the poorest, especially those without any assets, are often unable to migrate outside the district. Meanwhile social networks and education contribute to migration. Whether people state it or not, migration can be a strategy that helps them offset losses and prepare better for future stresses and shocks. However, whether such migration leads to adaptation to climate change depends on the policy environment in the country. A textual analysis of policy documents, however, shows that though urban migration is inevitable for Bangladesh's economic growth, its role as a climate change adaptation strategy is often not acknowledged. The thesis argues that policies need to be more proactive so that migration does not become maladaptive or people unable to move out are trapped in places exposed to climate- and environment-related hazards.

Traditional emergency service major incident table top training exercises are presented via ‘low-technology’ means, such as plastic bricks and paper maps, or ‘front-loaded’ via slides presented by an instructor. The purpose of this research was to develop a new, electronic approach to table top delivery, to address issues with the existing approaches and provide a usable, more useful, streamlined user experience that was acceptable for major incident education. While the benefits of the existing paper-based approaches include their: affordability; reliability; portability; accessibility and acceptability, they do not permit the recording of exercise progress. Presentations by instructors can result in a lack of candidate participation and physical maps can become cluttered and cause a loss of data when disturbed. Additionally, supporting information required by participants during the scenario is presented as an adjunct to the exercise, necessitating supplementary display equipment. To address these issues, low-cost, bespoke, interactive software solutions for major incident training were created. The usability and acceptability of these products were tested within two populations routinely using table top exercises, via an experimentally-led ‘research in the wild’ approach. These were healthcare professionals, attending the international Major Incident Medical Management and Support (MIMMS) courses, and Greater Manchester Police (GMP) Officers. An experimental approach was adopted to attain realistic responses from the target audience regarding table top use. Given the nature of this form of incident response training, we were constrained to conducting experiments in a non-intrusive way, to neither interfere with, nor distract from, the participants’ learning experiences. Three experiments were designed to establish the viability of this development. Two one centre, one sample studies were conducted, followed by a multicentre controlled trial. The one sample studies consisted of a pilot that explored proof of concept, focussing on table top usability by non-computing expert users, and a second study which determined the validity of the pilot’s findings within a larger sample size. The multicentre controlled trial compared paper-based table top with electronic table top cohorts in terms of the participant learning experience and, thereby, fitness for purpose. 6 candidates piloted the prototype MIMMS electronic exercise in February 2011. 114 Police Officers utilised the GMP table top during November and December 2011. The multicentre controlled MIMMS trial enrolled 23 candidates (n=11 electronic and n=12 paper-based table top cohorts) from courses held at 3 U.K. centres. Both the healthcare and policing trial participants evaluating the table top respectively rated significant levels of agreement with the software being fit for purpose and usable. Candidate results from the multicentre MIMMS trial indicated positive findings regarding the equivalency of the electronic with the existing, paper-based media. The MIMMS pilot trial was an acceptable proof of concept, justifying the further development of this work. The GMP study affirmed these findings for a larger sample size. The MIMMS multicentre controlled trial demonstrated the comparability of the electronic table top with its paper-based counterpart, in terms of the learning experience provided and affirmed this approach as fit for purpose. This work has changed major incident education practice by addressing real world training delivery issues, via the pertinent application of usable technology.

Droughts are one of the most widespread and complex natural hazards, and remain poorly understood in the context of the United Kingdom. Although the UK is perceived as a relatively water rich country, droughts are a recurrent feature of its climate, causing widespread and serious environmental and economic impacts. Current understanding of drought risk is often based on relatively short records, and/or a small number of specific contemporary case study events from the last couple of decades (e.g. 1976). This study addresses this problem through the development of long (>150 year) meteorological drought records reconstructed using the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI). The index was calculated using long duration temperature and rainfall records. New rainfall series were generated for Carlisle and Chatsworth, existent rainfall series were extended for Kew, Spalding, Manchester, Edinburgh and Oxford. Additional rainfall series were kindly provided for Appleby and Durham. Temperature series for the Lancashire Plain, Oxford, Edinburgh and Durham were also extended. Where appropriate the newly developed and existing series were evaluated and tested to ensure homogeneity. The drought reconstructions identify multiple drought-rich periods, particularly in the eighteenth and twentieth centuries, with an increasing tendency towards more severe droughts during the latter period. Prolonged rainfall deficiencies are found to be the primary cause of severe droughts, with rising temperatures exacerbating the rainfall conditioned drought pattern. Cycles at the 6-10 year period identify a sub-decadal to decadal signal during the more drought-rich periods, which can be interpreted as reflecting large scale modes of climate variability. Analysis of the spatial variability of droughts finds that whilst severe events predominantly display spatial coherence, there are notable variations in drought characteristics (severity and duration) that reflect intra- and interregional variability in drought behaviour. In part this can be attributed to localised variations in rainfall and distance between sites. This study extends the temporal range of previous drought studies and places recent drought events in a longer context, improving upon existing ‘benchmark’ drought analyses; with far-reaching implications for local, national and continental scale reduction of drought vulnerability and risk.

This research explores disaster vulnerability in Nepal. Disaster vulnerability is increasing due to the following reasons: weak governance; demographic growth; rapid urban expansion; relatively weak land use planning; the growth of informal settlements; poor construction methods; steep land farming practices; the encroachment of river plains and forest areas; and environmental degradation. This research is divided into three parts; problem overview, mapping past disaster events and community vulnerability. Often disaster management practice at the national level has tended to focus on large-scale events. In Nepal, there is a history of government responses to large-scale disasters; however, evidence increasingly shows that small-scale disasters have a more significant impact on people’s livelihoods. This is the case in Nepal and it is unclear whether small-scale disasters have prompted policy change. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the impact of small-scale disasters and to ascertain if there is any evidence of a shift in government disaster management policy. Local disasters seem to dominate the lived risk experience, but there is little understanding of how small-scale disasters can contribute to disaster risk reduction knowledge. Urban and rural communities differ in their understanding of small-scale disaster knowledge base, not least because both populations have little experience of the risks they take as a result of migration to new environments. This study captures 10 years of field experience in Nepal. This research has found that:- Small-scale disasters have a greater impact than larger disasters. Without an integrated policy and legislative framework approach from government and a focus on small-scale disasters, it is unlikely that effective disaster risk reduction measures will be integrated into sector development planning. People’s knowledge of, relationship to, and interactions with small-scale hazards in a changing climate produce new risks and vulnerabilities at the local level. This thesis concludes with recommendations for improving disaster risk reduction at the local level in Nepal.

This thesis critically evaluates the reasons and extent to which Direct Action Self-Help (DASH) groups are, or can be, viable and an efficacious, efficient and effective means of managing and monitoring Flood and Coastal erosion Risk Management (FCRM) assets. FCRM DASH groups are found to be motivated by challenges of increasing flood risk and reduced public funding, alongside a sense of stewardship and community solidarity, catalysed by a few motivated individuals. The thesis develops a conceptual framework of the different dimensions, contextual aspects and motivations for DASH activity. Case studies show that channel maintenance work by DASH groups can be effective and efficient at reducing some aspects of local fluvial flood risk for lower order flood events. By contrast, maintenance of existing sea walls by DASH groups is less efficient because of the need for significant expenditure on materials and is only efficacious if the engineering is quality controlled; its longer term effectiveness is limited by sea level rise. Professional FCRM coordination and support of DASH activity is examined using a case study of an Environment Agency (EA) area coordinator and comparisons with alternative approaches. Support of DASH groups by FCRM professionals is essential to avoid unwise activity and to provide practical support, seed-corn funding and advice on the nature and extent to which DASH activity might be appropriate. The most effective form of DASH facilitation requires a quality and quantity of involvement that cannot readily be supplied by dispersed arrangements from a number of individuals. The thesis also proposes an approach for assessing and scoring the human dimensions of engineering assets. The dimensions of Sense of Security, Accessibility/Availability and Delight/Inspiration reflect insights from key thinkers from a wide range of disciplines. The framework is verified for the FCRM context and its practicality evaluated by trials in which DASH and other community groups assess human dimensions.

The increase in disasters in recent decades has impacted on humanity through large loss of life and negative long-term economic and environmental consequences. Disasters cannot always be prevented but their impacts can be mitigated through adapted disaster management strategies, including improving community resilience. The aim of this thesis is to develop a framework of community resilience to disaster in Saudi Arabia (CRDSA). Saudi Arabia has experienced a number of disasters between 2005 and 2014; two were of a biological nature H1N1 and MERS-CoV while the rest were caused by flooding. The study uses a mixed-method approach and paradigm of pragmatism, and is structured into three stages. First, based on the literature review, a survey questionnaire is used to examine the public perception of risk of disaster. The second stage is divided into two steps: 1) the Delphi consultation is employed to refine a set of initial criteria, organised into dimensions, derived from a review of the literature, and to explore additional criteria to inform the development of CRDSA. The Delphi technique combines a quantitative calculation to justify each dimension and associated criteria with qualitative views of experts to reach consensus around the proposed CRDSA. Data collection involved three-round questionnaire before achieving experts’ consensus; 2) AHP is used to achieve the objectives of: a) local priority weights from pair-wise comparative methods of judgment and b) determining the importance of the dimensions of the framework. The third stage focuses on the validation of the CRDSA through a real mass gathering event. The approach involves a field study investigation, including interviews and observations during the 2013 Hajj to 1) determine community resilience level at the Hajj, 2) inform prevention strategies against the risk of a MERS-CoV epidemic; and 3) validate the CRDSA in a real situation. The study finds that the proposed CRDSA framework can be used as an assessment tool to build community resilience to disasters in permanent and transient communities.

Over recent years, community resilience has been increasing in popularity as a topic for detailed study. During that time, academic researchers have been working to untangle the complex network of social relationships that define the concept. In parallel, some institutions have set the achievement of enhanced community resilience as a policy goal. This research has sought to assist in both areas: first, by contributing to the academic debate and second, to build a clearer understanding of how institutions can tailor policies to ensure success in their goal of enhancing community resilience. A case study approach was adopted for the research, centring on three communities in the Teign Estuary of South Devon (Newton Abbot, Teignmouth and Shaldon). All three communities were vulnerable to tidal flooding and links between the communities and institutions responsible for managing flood risk (FRM framework) were analysed. In the analysis, a specific form of social capital was studied: social capital derived from community-institution links (CISC). CISC was found to be effective in revealing links with the greatest potential to enhance the resilience of communities against flood risks. To assess resilience at the individual and community level, a maturity based model was used. The assessment found disparities between how resilience matures at the community level compared to the individual level. Specifically, resilience maturity in communities was revealed as a less linear process. As such, the case study communities were able to exhibit traits associated with low resilience maturity at the same time as exhibiting traits associated with high resilience maturity. This research concluded that the UK FRM policy framework was robust, aligning well with academic theory. However, the FRM system was revealed as being dominated by expert elites. These elites are mainly public sector based and were judged to be stifling the engagement of the private sector at the local level. To enhance their resilience, this study determined that communities need to investment in CISC, but that investment must not just be targeted at public sector FRM institutions alone, it also needs to target private sector FRM institutions.

The end of 2006 was a milestone for the Government of Indonesia in the initiation of the disaster risk reduction program. The aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami that hit the Aceh Province and Nias Island in the North Sumatra Province, in December 2004, had taken 2 years to deal with. From the start of 2005 until mid-2006 was a period of emergency, rehabilitation and reconstruction. Therefore, the government began publishing a national action plan for disaster risk reduction (2006-2009). It later became the beginning of the shifting paradigm of emergency, rehabilitation and reconstruction, to become the paradigm of disaster mitigation (disaster risk reduction). The initiative was also taken by the Indonesian government as part of integrating the international commitments of the United Nations and the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA 2005 -2015) about Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters. The Indonesian government then opened support from donors to support the implementation of the NAP-DRR program, while supporting the creation of instrument-instrument for disaster management activities for the government. Various support was received by the government to support the DRR program in Indonesia. Such support gave assistance, institutional strengthening, and also grant aid. A grant of 4.3 million pounds from DFID (the UK government) is the largest received by the Indonesian government to support the implementation of DRR in Indonesia. In the implementation of grant aid, the UK government has given an enormous influence on the governance of disaster management in Indonesia. The aim of this research is to explore and investigate the impact of the UKAid project in support of the DRR programme implemented by the Indonesian Government. The research objectives is : to explore and understand the context of UKAid in support of SCDRR project; to explore the SCDRR project as part of humanitarian aid; to analyse the obstacles affecting the impact of UKAid at governmental level and in optimising foreign assistance fund for DRR activities; and identify and assess the lessons and good practice learnt after DRR project in maintaining post project sustainability incorporating the lessons learnt into the government regulatory framework. This study needed to look at the long-standing problem of financial constraints of developing countries in the allocation of funding for disaster risk reduction, which has not been a top priority. The research gap identified with study through SCDRR performance as a government project, it indirectly gave a lot of feedback, initiatives and encouragement for the formation of institutions in the system of management of disaster, including the birth of various regulations related to disaster management in general and supporting disaster risk reduction programs as the impact of the DFID/UK Aid projects in Indonesia. This study adopts methodology a single case study of the SC-DRR project activities, which was implemented in seven provinces and one city in Indonesia. The strategy of the research is conducted by observing the effects produced after the implementation of the DRR project was implemented and categorized at the national and regional levels. A number of interviews with experts from government and non-government have been conducted in order to complement findings outcomes in seven scopes of impact: (1) Strengthening Aid influence in government institutions; (2) Challenges and lessons learnt post SCDRR activities; (3) Effect of humanitarian assistance for DRR in Indonesia; (4) Existence of Indonesian Disaster Data and information (DIBI); (5) Existence of DFID and UK Aid in Indonesia; (6) Optimizing of DFID grant through Project SCDRR; and (7) The influence of the SCDRR Project. The contribution to knowledge and practice through this study was demonstrate the models framework of impact analysis as a research tool for foreign aid to Indonesia (developing country), which was integrated with another framework analysis impact for humanitarian aid developed by Hoffman for detailed analysis. The integrating of aspect national and regional level into the models framework will useful analysis for the policy maker in particular at developing country.

This thesis uses statistical modelling to better understand the relationship between insured losses and hazard footprint characteristics for European windstorms (extra- tropical cyclones). The footprint of a windstorm is defined as the maximum wind gust speed to occur at a set of spatial locations over the duration of the storm. A better understanding of this relationship is required because the most damaging historical windstorms have had footprints with differing characteristics. Some have a large area of relatively low wind gust speeds, while others have a smaller area of higher wind gust speeds. In addition, this insight will help to explain the surprising, sharp decline in European wind related losses in the mid 1990’s. This novel exploration is based on 5730 high resolution model generated historical footprints (1979-2012) representing the whole European domain. Functions of extreme footprint wind gust speeds, known as storm severity measures, are developed to represent footprint characteristics. Exploratory data analysis is used to compare which storm severity measures are most successful at classifying 23 extreme windstorms, known to have caused large insured losses. Summarising the footprint using these scalar severity measures, however, fails to capture different combinations of spatial scale and local intensity characteristics. To overcome this, a novel statistical model for windstorm footprints is developed, initially for pairs of locations using a bivariate Gaussian copula model; subsequently extended to represent the whole European domain using a geostatistical spatial model. Throughout, the distribution of wind gust speeds at each location is modelled using a left-truncated Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Synthetic footprints, simulated from the geostatistical model, are then used in a sensitivity study to explore whether the local intensity or spatial dependence structure of a footprint has the most influence on insured loss. This contributes a novel example of sensitivity analysis applied to a stochastic natural hazards model. The area of the footprint exceeding 25ms−1 over land is the most successful storm severity measure at classifying extreme loss windstorms, ranking all 23 within the top 18% of events. Marginally transformed wind gust speeds are identified as being asymptotically independent and second-order stationary, allowing for the spatial dependence to be represented by a geostatistical covariance function. The geostatistical windstorm footprint model is able to quickly (∼3 seconds) simulate synthetic footprints which realistically represent joint losses throughout Europe. The sensitivity study identifies that the left-truncated GEV parameters have a greater influence on insured loss than the geostatistical spatial dependence parameters. The observed decline in wind related losses in the 1990’s can therefore be attributed to a change in the local intensity rather than the spatial structure of footprint wind gust speeds.