In this thesis multiple approaches are presented which demonstrate the effectiveness of mathematical modelling to the study of terrorism and counter-terrorism strategies. In particular, theories of crime science are quantified to obtain objective outcomes. The layout of the research findings is in four parts. The first model studied is a Hawkes point process. This model describes events where past occurrence can lead to an increase in future events. In the context of this thesis a point process is used to capture dependence among terrorist attacks committed by the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) during ``The Troubles'' in Northern Ireland. The Hawkes process is adapted to produce a method capable of determining quantitatively temporally distinct phases within the PIRA movement. Expanding on the Hawkes model the next area of research introduces a time-varying background rate. In particular, using the Fast Fourier Transform a sinusoidal background rate is derived. This model then enables a study of seasonal trends in the attack profile of the Al Shabaab (AS) group. To study the spatial dynamics of terrorist activity a Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) model is examined. The DPM is used in a novel setting by considering the influence of improvised explosive device (IED) factory closures on PIRA attacks. The final research area studied in this thesis is data collection methods. An information retrieval (IR) tool is designed which can automatically obtain terrorist event details. Machine learning techniques are used to compare this IR data to a manually collected dataset. Future research ideas are introduced for each of the topics covered in this dissertation.

The UK population, as in nearly every country in the world, is experiencing a period of unprecedented aging. This along with apparently harsher sentencing has created a rise in the number of older prisoners; those aged 60 and over are now the fastest-growing age group in the England and Wales prison system. Research has demonstrated that older prisoners have increased physical and mental health problems, and a different profile of social and custodial needs within the prison environment. However, studies have yet to demonstrate a clear age cut-off defining the older prisoner. The visibility of the older prisoner has been raised in the UK; several high-profile government reports have referred to, and made recommendations towards, this group. A content analysis reported here showed that Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Prisons have increasingly judged prisons on the care provided to the older population. Inspectorate reports also revealed that there have been positive developments In this area for many prisons. This study aimed to examine the needs of older men in prison. A total of 262 men aged 50 and over were interviewed in 12 North West prisons. Over 95% of those over 60 had at least one chronic physical health problem, and 53% were diagnosed with a mental disorder, similar to previous research. A small group had functional needs, but these were often unmet in prison. Most felt older prisoners should be located separately to younger prisoners, and those on dedicated elderly wings had a better quality of life as well as having social needs addressed. Comparison of need across five-year age bands showed similar physical health across the sample, but poorer mental health and quality of life in younger groups, particularly those aged 50 to 54. This may be due to lack of access to additional services for older prisoners, fewer protective factors of being seen as an 'elderly prisoner', or generational differences. A number of suggestions were made for improvements to the care and management of older prisoners, including the use of age 50 as a cut-off for services, development of chronic disease management clinics, engagement with old-age psychiatry, and formalised provision of social care. A national strategy published by HM Prison Service and the Department of Health would be needed to ensure appropriate action is taken and older prisoners' needs addressed.

Football hooliganism has been prevalent in almost every country where the game is played for a number of years. This has particularly been the case in Britain, where the phenomenon has produced consequences of varying degrees of severity. Many existing academic investigations have examined the problem by gauging opinions of hooligans and to a lesser extent, the police. However, the perspectives of the nonviolent majority of supporters have been consistently overlooked, and yet they often share the same space, rituals and social characteristics as hooligans, and also witness football violence and the processes that instigate and escalate it. This research therefore involved obtaining the views of numerous non-hooligan supporters who regularly attend both home and away matches from eight British teams. This is a descriptive investigation that adopted a phenomenological approach in order to access the inter-subjective lifeworld of supporters. To this end, extensive participant observation was undertaken, with the more directed qualitative methods of focus groups and interviews supplementing this data. This investigation involved attending 411 matches in domestic and international competition in twenty-one countries during live consecutive seasons. Attitudes were examined regarding how the phenomenon and related terminology may be defined, the severity of the problem and media coverage, what causes hooliganism and finally preventative measures. Supporters considered hooliganism to relate to violent behaviour in a football context, and therefore acts of non-violent 'disorder' were not explored here. The phenomenon was not thought to be a particularly serious current problem on a national scale. However, it was claimed that 'grudge' matches such as local derbies produce violence to varying degrees on a relatively regular basis. Also, respondents offered a variety of value judgements, with a large minority expressing positive viewpoints, indicating a liking for the phenomenon. Many stated that hooligans serve to protect non-violent fans, distract rival supporters from attacking those who do not wish to engage in violence, and make a positive contribution to a club's reputation. This contradicts the popularly expressed contention, namely that with the exception of those who engage in violence, supporters dislike the culture and threat of football hooliganism. Respondents also argued that media coverage was typically sensationalist and disproportionate, but only considered this to be problematic in terms of how supporters are treated in international competition. This is because foreign police and supporters are said to often lack a realistic frame of reference by which to assess the reliability of such media representation. Respondents did not explain involvement in hooliganism according to drug use or any particular demographic. Instead, personal characteristics were discussed, focusing on an individual's desire to engage in or be seen to be involved in violence. Hooliganism was also thought to reflect expressions of strong emotional ties to a club, nation or locality, whilst excluding conflicting identities. This was particularly considered to be the case in grudge match contexts, where jealousy, contempt or bitterness can be manifested in violent confrontation with an `enemy'. Many also considered the perception of being marginalised, controlled or insignificant to produce violence as an attempt to reassert an identity. Supporters were virtually unanimous in claiming that hooliganism will never be completely omitted from English football. However, many considered it possible to further reduce the problem by continuing to improve the effectiveness of police intervention by encouraging police to develop a better understanding of the intricacies of supporter cultures. Also, interventions such as banning orders were commended in theory, although the application of such measures was heavily criticised. Indeed, many intelligence-led responses were considered disproportionate, with oppressive measures serving as unjust and ineffective solutions. This was emphasised particularly when compared to legal and police responses to similar behaviour in non-football contexts. Such inappropriate intervention was perceived to only alienate the police, and complicate their task of understanding supporters and developing constructive relationships with them. Supporters considered the most effective way to reduce the problem to involve a combination of self-policing from non-violent supporters, effective deterrents, and evident and proportionate police presence and intervention, underpinned by a sound understanding of what causes hooliganism.

The aim of the thesis is to predict and reduce violence in prisons. Chapter 1 reviews the literature currently available, identifying risk factors associated with the prediction of prison violence. Chapter 2 is a case study of a prisoner, Mr. M., who has been violent both in the community and in prison. Chapter 3 critically evaluates a risk assessment for violence which is frequently used within the prison service: the HCR- 20 (Historical Clinical Risk - 20, Webster, Douglas, Eaves & Hart, 1997). Considerations are given to its effectiveness as a predictive tool for violent recidivism. Chapter 4 is an empirical research paper examining violence within a maximum security prison in the U.K. Initially the paper examines whether scores on the HCR-20 and Violence Risk Scale (VRS; Wong & Gordon, 1999) assessment tools can distinguish between those who have and have not been violent. The research explores individual factors associated with prison violence in this setting. The study proposes a model which can predict whether a prisoner is likely to be a perpetrator of prison violence. The thesis concludes by discussing impl ications of the findings and possible directions for future research.

The thesis explores the experiences of the disproportionately high percentage of black foreign national women in prisons in England by paying special attention to their narratives. It provides a case study of the way in which the voice of the black foreign national prisoner can and should be located, in order to increase awareness of the high rates of imprisonment of foreign national women in England and to influence how the Prison Service develops and alters its policies towards this group. Through in-depth interview schedules and focus groups, the harrowing circumstances of these women prisoners before they entered prison, during their sentences and after deportation, have been collected and analysed in this thesis. The lengthy and uninhibited narratives of the women illuminate their unenviable experiences: in their own countries before their imprisonment, within the English prison estate, and upon returning home after deportation. Various factors are examined, including: the socio-economic as well as the political conditions in the home countries of the women, the matrifocal system in their countries of origin and its impact on driving them towards crime, the various reasons for committing the offence, the presence and rationalisation of guilt or shame in the minds of the women prisoners, the probable instances of discrimination and racism within the UK prison system, the rupture in family relationships, the viability of the rehabilitation schemes designed by the prison system, and the predicament of the women deported after their prison terms. The thesis also considers the role that non-governmental organisations can play in lobbying home governments to create awareness of the conditions and circumstances of imprisonment in England. The thesis concludes that policies for foreign national women prisoners in England should take into greater consideration the voice of the black foreign national female prisoner and its histo-racial nuances, particularly as the women account for a sizable portion of the foreign national prison population in England.

No description available.

Various components contribute to the concept of the vulnerable adult. These typically include learning (developmental) disability and mental illness. Vulnerable adults may have an increased susceptibility to commit crime, be detected by the police and become victims of crime, and therefore coming into contact with the Criminal Justice System (CJS). High rates of psychiatric morbidity may be one such vulnerability factor, especially in adults with developmental disability (DD). Police sergeants use various criteria to identify vulnerable adults. However, reliability and validity of these criteria has not tested. Because vulnerable adults are particularly likely to have difficulty navigating the CJS and may be liable to undue compliance, suggestibility, and misunderstanding, the role of the 'Appropriate Adult' (AA) was created to advocate for identified individuals and support them through the legal process. Two studies, on vulnerable populations in a police station are reported in this thesis. In the first study (main study), a cohort of thirty-four cases and 20 controls were identified at Bethel Street police station in Norwich using the above criteria and prospectively followed up for eighteen-months after initial identification. A similarity between cases and controls in their basic demographics details is reported. There was significant history of unemployment, maternal offending, life events in cases as compared to controls. Relationship difficulties were the most common life event in the month prior to arrestUsing standardised questionnaires including Psychiatric Assessment Schedule for Adults with Developmental Disability (PAS-ADD) high rates of psychiatric morbidity, including anxiety, depression are reported. The key findings are a low sensitivity of the police-screening questionnaire, and high rates of self-claimed mental illness as compared to diagnosable mental illness after using standardised tools. Contrary to other studies, high rates of crimes against the person are reported in both current and past offending among people with DD and mental illness compared to controls. Higher rates of illicit drug abuse and family history of criminality are also reported in cases as compared to controls. Only ten people initially screened completed the study after eighteen months. This reflects the high drop-out rate and difficulties in follow-up of this population. In the second study, one hundred and three adults who were identified as vulnerable by the custody sergeant (CS) at the Bethel street police station were interviewed on a specially designed satisfaction questionnaire. The vulnerable adult population found the Appropriate Adult (AA) to be most beneficial before the police interview. High rates of use of this volunteer scheme are reported with police using more often general vulnerability rather than specific vulnerability factors to screen vulnerable adults

This thesis critically revisits a project in community policing transfer to Ukraine. It examines the genesis, context and impact of the project and 'through this lens explores how community policing can be problematic in a former Soviet society. The study is intended to contribute to debates on the issues of reforming post-Soviet policing and the potential role of criminological imports in this process. The thesis highlights the obstacles to, and challenges of developing community policing within the context of the continued dominance and expanding scope of informal shadowy practices in the governance of policing. It demonstrates the importance of a combination of historical, economic, social and political factors impacting upon the willingness of people in Ukraine to contact the police and engage in crime prevention, and explores why people in Ukraine do not see themselves part of a 'community'. Normative questions posed by the notion of 'public engagement' are also explored. It is argued that 'community policing' as a consensual coproduction of order and safety is unlikely in Ukraine. Community policing practice in this context has a potential to evolve as an authoritarian, moralistic, coercive and exclusive form of control. The thesis challenges the assumption that export of community policing is an unproblematic transfer of expertise and 'best practice', and highlights the problematic nature of the relations between funders, academic entrepreneurs, the local police, academics and the non-governmental sector. The thesis also demonstrates how a commitment to scientific rationalism and a narrow conceptualisation of 'evidence' in evaluation research has political implications.

Escalation/de-escalation of offending is an important topic for criminal justice policy, but has been comparatively neglected in criminal careers research. This thesis introduces the Offenders Index (OI) dataset from the Home Office in England and Wales which is the preferred dataset for assessing escalation in this thesis. Three major studies are then reported under two main research focuses. One research study focuses on 'serious offender escalation'. This study examines offenders who had been convicted of arson, blackmail, threats to kill, or kidnapping, and assesses whether they will be convicted of the most serious crime - homicide. This study suggested that 1 in 100 kidnapping offenders are likely to have a subsequent homicide conviction over a 20-year follow-up period, which doubles the risk of homicide conviction compared to the other three types of offenders. Moreover, offenders can double their risk of homicide conviction by being involved in multiple serious offences (among the four serious offences). The second research focuses on 'general escalation'. This includes two studies: the first study examines the effects of two temporal scales, both age and order of convictions on escalation of seriousness by using a linear mixed-effects model. The results suggested that ageing is associated with de-escalation whereas the number of conviction occasions is associated with escalation, with the two processes pulling in different directions. This is followed by the last study which examines the hypothesis that there are different types of underlying criminal development in escalation across offenders. Therefore, a combination of mixed-effects and mixture modelling methodology has been developed to understand both individual crime growth curves and to distinguish latent types of crime development. A three-class solution has been identified by growth mixture modelling approach. The first class consists of the majority (88%) of offenders who are relatively stable in their seriousness in crimes, and have some tendency to de-escalate with age and some tendency to escalate with experience. The second class consists of 6.4% of offenders who have average high seriousness (7.6) at age 10, and have a strong de-escalation effect with age. The third class consists of 5.6% of offenders who have shown more diversity in crime seriousness, and also are involved with more high seriousness crimes. The last study also provides a comparison framework to compare the linear mixed-effects model, group-based trajectory model, and growth mixture model through graphical investigation and proposed statistical diagnostic measures. For the particular data used in this thesis, the growth mixture model with three classes is preferred as the best fitting model compared to various other fitted models.

Interventions aimed at reducing youth offending have tended to focus on either parents/carers or young people. In recent years, literature has highlighted the impact of the family on the emergence of offending behaviour in adolescence (Loeber & Stouthamer-Loeber, 1987). Evidence suggests that family interventions can be more effective but harder to implement successfully (Fadden, <i>1997). </i>Research has indicated that working with both young people and their parents within a multiple family group (MFG) setting may be more effective for ‘hard to reach’ groups (McKay, <i>et </i><i>al</i>.,1995). In the present study, a qualitative methodology was used to explore the experiences of five families and two facilitators who had attended a multiple family group (MFG) for young people at risk of reoffending. Semi-structured interviews were analysed using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA). The aim was to provide an in-depth account of the way in which these individuals made sense of the group process and the impact they perceived it to have on their wider lives. Six super-ordinate themes were identified. The first related to the struggles families were experiencing prior to the MFG and the way in which this impacted on their ability to access services. The second related to participants’ negative expectations of MFG intervention, largely based on previous experience of professional input. The third concerned participants’ overall positive perceptions of their involvement in the MFG. The fourth theme related to significant characteristics of the MFG that were thought to facilitate engagement. These were characterised in terms of a group ‘ethos’. The fifth theme encompassed the overall impact that participants felt the MFG had on their own lives. The final theme related to the limitations of the MFG intervention. Overall, families responded well to MFG intervention and found it to have a positive impact in terms of their relationships with one another. This study has highlighted some of the critical factors that result in these families being labelled as ‘hard to reach’ and has identified some elements within service provision that may encourage them to engage. The need to offer a follow-up service was also identified.