The work is concerned with the measurement and prediction of the environmental effects of traffic in urban situations, with a view to contributing to the development of theory and the provision of techniques in transportation planning which will allow such effects to be taken into account explicitly in the evaluation of transport proposals and projects. Its main emphasis has been on the problems of streets typical of urban areas as opposed to urban motorways on which most research has heretofore concentrated. The study has focused attention on the environmental effects measurable at the kerbside and involved the review and development of traffic and built form related models of traffic noise, pedestrian delay and atmospheric pollution. The issues of vibration, pedestrian risk and visual appearance have also been examined. The work has not only been concerned with 'objective' measures of environmental impact but also with 'subjective response' and the results of testing a series of hypotheses based psychometric approaches to stimulus/response issues are reported. The research methodology for the development of the 'objective' models was based on the regression of observed variables on simultaneously measured independent variables. The 'subjective' aspects of the study were based on a survey of pedestrian response at the kerbside. Two direct methods of measuring pedestrian annoyance were used - cross modality matching and magnitude estimation. The results of the 'objective' model development work produced a, traffic noise model in terms of L10 for non free flow conditions with a standard error of 1.4dB(A) which is approximately half that found in models to date. Extremely good fits for pedestrian delay were found with models based on the adaptation of models for 'free flow' conditions. Less progress has been made in the prediction of pedestrian response. While, in some cases, very highly significant correlations were observed, the wide range of responses relative to the range of the traffic variables on the road network made it impossible to define the correct form of the relationship between the responses and the traffic. However, in the cases where the relationships were highly significant, a log/log relationship was the closest

The object of this project was to identify those elements of management practice which characterised firms in the West Midlands Road Transport Industry. The object being to establish the contents of what might be termed a management policy portfolio for growth. The First Phase was the review of those factors which were generally accepted as having an influence on the success rate of transport firms in order to ascertain if they explained observed patterns. Secondly, if this were not the case, to instigate a field work study to isolate those policies which were associated with growth organizations. Investigation of the vehicle movements for the entire West Midlands Fleet over a complete licence cycle suggested that conventional explanations could not fully account for the observed patterns. To carry out the second phase of the study a sample of growth firms were visited in order to measure their attitudes on a range of factors hypothesised to affect growth. Field data were analysed to establish management activities over a wide range of areas and the results further investigated through a Principal Components and Cluster Analysis programme. The outcome of the study indicates that some past attitudes on the skills and attitudes of transport managers may have to be re-examined. As a result, the project produced a new classification of road transport firms based not on the conventional categories of long and short haul, or the types of traffics carried, but on the marketing policies and management skills employed within the organization.

An investigation into detection and classification of vehicles and pedestrians from video in urban traffic scenes is presented. The final aim is to produce systems to guide surveillance operators and reduce human resources for observing hundreds of cameras in urban traffic surveillance. Cameras are a well established means for traffic managers to observe traffic states and improve journey experiences. Firstly, per frame vehicle detection and classification is performed using 3D models on calibrated cameras. Motion silhouettes (from background estimation) are extracted and compared to a projected model silhouette to identify the ground plane position and class of vehicles and pedestrians. The system has been evaluated with the reference i-LIDS data sets from the UK Home Office. Performance has been compared for varying numbers of classes, for three different weather conditions and for different video input filters. The full system including detection and classification achieves a recall of 87% at a precision of 85.5% outperforming similar systems in the literature. To improve robustness, the use of local image patches to incorporate object appearance is investigated for surveillance applications. As an example, a novel texture saliency classifier has been proposed to detect people in a video frame by identifying salient texture regions. The image is classified into foreground and background in real- time.No temporal image information is used during the classification. The system, used for the task of detecting people entering a sterile zone, a common scenario for visual surveillance. Testing has been performed on the i-LIDS sterile zone benchmark data set of the UK Home Qffice. The basic detector is extended by fusing its output with simple motion infonriation, which significantly outperforms standard motion tracking. Lower detection time can be achieved by combining texture classification with Kalman filtering. The fusion approach running on 10 frames per second gives the highest result of Fl=O.92 for the 24 hour test data set. Based on the good results for local features, a novel classifier has been introduced by combining the concept of 3D models with local features to overcome limitations of conventional silhouette-based methods and local features in 2D. The appearance of vehicles varies substantially with the viewing angle and local features may often be occluded. In this thesis, full 3D models are used for the object categories to be detected and the feature patches are defined over these models. A calibrated camera allows an affine transformation of the observation into a normalised representation from which '3DHOG' features (3D extended histogram of oriented gradients) are defined. A variable set of interest points is used in the detection and classification processes, depending on which points in the 3D model are visible. The 3DHOG feature is compared with features based on FFf and simple histograms and also to the motion silhouette baseline on the same data. The results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves comparable performance. In particular, an advantage of .the proposed, method is that it is robust against miss-Shaped motion silhouettes which can be caused by variable lighting, camera quality and occlusions from other objects. The proposed algorithms are evaluated further on a new data set from a different camera with higher resolution, which demonstrates the portability of the training data to novel camera views. Kalman filter tracking is introduced to gain trajectory information, is used for behaviour analysis. Correctly detected tracks of 94% outperforming a baseline motion tracker (OpenCV) tested under the same conditions. A demonstrator for bus lane monitoring is introduced using the output of the detection and classification system. The thesis concludes with a critical analysis of the work and the outlook for future research opportunities.

This thesis investigates three salient areas of interest in the structure of freight rates in the shipping market, with a particular focus on the tanker and dry-bulk sectors, using recent econometric and time series techniques. The questions asked are: 1) do spot freight rate levels follow a fractionally integrated process, as opposed to being stationary or non-stationary, as had previously been proposed; 2) does spot freight rate volatility also follow a fractionally integrated process; and 3) do freight rates exhibit conditional skewness and kurtosis? It then evaluates the impact that these factors have on the risk exposure of market participants. These concepts are further tested in terms of their respective forecasting performance, relative to other more standard econometric techniques. An ongoing issue in the shipping literature is whether spot freight rate levels follow a stationary or non-stationary process. This thesis provides another dimension to this discussion by arguing that spot freight rate levels follow a fractionally integrated process. The rationale behind this argument is the fact that the supply and demand dynamics in this market mean that although freight rates are mean-reverting overall, the process of mean-reversion occurs with a delay, which is exactly how one would expect a fractionally integrated process to behave. Although in-sample results were promising in that fractionally integrated models are found to outperform their stationary and non-stationary counterparts across sectors and vessel sizes, out-of-sample forecasts indicate that models that assumed stationarity or non-stationarity outperformed these models, depending on the sector and vessel size. Additionally, the thesis extends this debate to the volatility of these spot freight rate levels, where it is proposed that volatility also follows a fractionally integrated process. In-sample results from the estimation of Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Integrated Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (IGARCH) and Fractionally Integrated Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (FIGARCH) models indicate that FIGARCH models outperformed the other two models across all sectors and vessel sizes, however, when calculating the respective out-of-sample Values-at-Risk for each 18 vessel type, non-parametric models are found, in most cases, to outperform their parametric counterparts across sectors and vessel sizes. This thesis finally examines whether freight rates exhibit conditional skewness and kurtosis, where the shape of the supply function in the shipping freight markets indicates that these would not be constant over time, as is assumed by other standard models. Results for the in-sample period indicate that the Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Skewness and Kurtosis (GARCHSK) models outperformed GARCH and FIGARCH models. This being said, when calculating the respective out-of-sample Values-at-Risk for each vessel type, non-parametric models are found, in most cases, to outperform their parametric counterparts across sectors and vessel sizes.

The primary objective of this thesis is to provide a new approach to optimizing the supply of taxis as applied in UK cities. Taxi supply, both in the UK and elsewhere, is controlled by a series of regulations (defined in relation to controls affecting Quantity, Quality and Economics - QQE) that influence the ability of the market to respond structurally - in terms of access to the market, and operationally - affecting the ability to provide services within the market. This thesis identifies the existing structures in taxi regulation. It explores legislative disagreement and differences in both academic and practitioner literature and perspectives. The thesis provides both a new approach to, and a new model of, taxi regulation, which accommodates existing differences in regulatory structures. The thesis builds on existing methods applied in determining individual elements of control - which may be appropriate to some elements of control but fail to address a full cross section of impacts - and provides an enhanced approach and new modelling framework for taxi regulation. In constructing this approach use has been made of both survey and case study methodologies. Survey data has been collected from two surveys, of 52 cities and 21 licensing authorities respectively. The case studies used are of Glasgow! and West Dunbartonshire(2). The thesis concludes that existing approaches to regulation are conducted in separate regulatory domains without sufficient comprehension of the impacts of action in one regulatory domain on another. It also concludes that the instruments used in the assessment of the impacts of regulation on taxi supply are insufficiently specified and inadequately coordinated. It is possible to identify issues across regulatory domains that can be improved to better optimize supply appropriate in any given circumstance to the benefit of existing and potential passengers - this includes those with particular access needs. In optimizing supply, awareness of the needs of the taxi industry and its regulators has been an important element of consideration. The thesis makes recommendations for alterations in the application of standard methods of assessment of taxi supply. 1 Although central to the Strathclyde conurbation, the Glasgow licensing area relates to the central city area only (Clydebank, Paisley, etc. being included in separate council licensing areas). The city is thus defined as medium sized location. 2 Further focus city material bas been collected from Belfast and Edinburgh, which is included in comparison within the text, and summarised in the appendices of this document.

Cette thèse analyse l’origine des disparités en matière de politiques de transport et d’organisation de l’activité économique au Gabon. Depuis toujours, les infrastructures de transport sont considérées comme l’un des déterminants de la localisation des firmes dans une perspective de développement. Aussi, le poids de l’économie géographique dans la théorie économique contemporaine éclaire parfaitement ce débat. Elle tend à apporter une description de l’interaction des différentes sources d’agglomération et de l’influence des infrastructures de transport. Sur la base du modèle de Krugman (1991), les analyses d’économie géographique démontrent que l’intégration économique et le développement des infrastructures de transport tendent à renforcer l’importance des grandes métropoles et à intensifier les processus de polarisation des activités économiques. Notre recherche consiste à démontrer qu’au-delà de l’économie géographique, des politiques de transport mieux élaborées sont indispensables à un développement économique plus intégré du Gabon. / This thesis analyzes the origin of disparities in terms of policies and the economic activities in Gabon. Infrastructures have always been regarded as one of the decisive factors in the location of firms. The influence of economic geography within the contemporary economic theory perfectly clarifies the debate. It tends to provide a description of the interaction of different location sources and the influence of transport infrastructures. Therefore, it emphasizes the study of decisive factors for firms' location. Our research aims to explain the location of activities and the concentration of firms in a region and / or a country. Based on the model of Krugman (1991), analysis of economic geography shows that economic integration and the development of transport infrastructures tend to strengthen the importance of mega cities and intensify the polarization of economic activities. The hypothesis is to examine beyond geographic economy, how transport infrastructure policies are necessary for a real development in Gabon.

The present study utilises the activity-based approach to investigate the nature and determinants of travel behaviour, and to reach a better understanding of travel complexity within households in an Islamic cultural environment. The main objectives of this study are, firstly to describe and explain the variation of behaviour between a sample of Saudi households and, secondly, to identify the likely response to specific transport policies. Results suggest that household head attributes (occupation, education and income), household socio-economic characteristics (car ownership, availability of a chauffeur, number of female students, number of females in employment and household size), and neighbourhood characteristics (density, accessibility to work) significantly influenced the choice of work tour type. The usefulness of applying tour-based analysis and its strength in showing interactions between household members' activities were confirmed in this study. Tour-based models revealed that Saudi households' travel activities were highly dependent on the household head, who is mainly responsible for serving household members' travel needs. In-depth interviews showed concerns about children's safety and security, lack of public and, in particular, school transport, ignorance of female travel needs, and car oriented neighbourhood design were main reasons for the high dependency on the car and its role as the dominant travel mode within Saudi cities. Interviewees were presented with five transport related policies to investigate their likely impact on households' travel behaviour. Interviewees agreed that the proposed policies would decrease car dependency and increase the travel independence of household members. Change in travel behaviour, in response to proposed policies, as identified by interviewees included decreased travel complexity (simpler tours), change in tour mode (more walking and public transport tours), and change in tour time. The study estimated a reduction in car trips generated by households as a result of introducing policies aimed to shift dependent groups (i.e. children and females) towards independence through walking and use of public transport

The research employs an adaptive cross-disciplinary research strategy in an industrial example to address port facilities’ inability to assess whether their security systems are efficient. The research combines a twin-pronged approach of first, adapting Markowitz (1952) theory of portfolio selection from the field of finance to maritime port security to examine each port facility’s security systems as a portfolio; and secondly, through portfolio optimization to construct the optimum theoretical portfolio of security systems drawn from a number of different port facilities owned by Dubai Ports World. The research builds on the existing literature and proposes new definitions of security, port security, port security risk and port security risk management. The research also develops a model of port security risk based on Willis et al’s (2005) definition of terrorist risk. Furthermore, the research builds on the work of Gleason (1980) and examines terrorist attacks on ports and on shipping in ports between 1968 and 2007 and shows, using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, that they follow a Poisson distribution. The contribution which the research makes is in terms of adapting Markowitz (1952) theory to the port security environment; and the modelling and measurement of the impact of the introduction of new port security technology, changes in background port security threat levels and for the planning of port security in Greenfield sites. Furthermore, the adaptive approach of the research is generalisable to all nodes in the supply chain and is not limited to port facilities alone.

North Korea is one of the world’s last remaining communist countries. Insistence on self-sufficiency has resulted in the stagnation of its economy and collapse of its transport distribution system. This research project examines how various scenarios for North Korea and the implications of South Korean enterprises’ location decisions affect future transport and logistics developments in North Korea. In the foreseeable future, aside from Chinese companies, South Korean investors will probably be the only companies to invest heavily in the North, driven by political and economic motivations. The objectives of this study are four-fold. Firstly, it analyses the political and economic factors affecting North Korea. Secondly, it appraises the present conditions of transport and logistics infrastructure in North Korea. Next, in order to ascertain the implications of business organisations’ decisions to locate in North Korea, it is imperative to determine the probable scenarios surrounding North Korea due to its unique and reclusive nature. Finally, it identifies the factors that will affect potential investors’ location choices. In order to answer the above research question and objectives, a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods was used. In the absence of reliable data from North Korea, an exploratory study was undertaken with eight experts to gain deeper understanding of the issues surrounding North Korea. The insights gathered, together with the comprehensive literature review led to the development of eight sub-research questions. Next, in-depth qualitative interviews were conducted to help develop scenarios for North Korea. Quantitative surveys were concurrently conducted which engaged SMEs and logistics companies. The findings of the research uncovered new insights. Experts think that the status quo scenario is most likely to continue in the near future unless one of the wildcard situations, such as the death of Kim Jong-il occurs. Investors are likely to invest $1-9 million in North Korea, with Nampo and Sinuiju as probable investment locations. Four main factors will influence the location choices of potential South Korean investors including ‘legal’, ‘political economy’, ‘spatial’ and ‘infrastructure’. Road transport was found to be the choice of mode for both experts and investors and China and South Korea would be the mostly like export destinations for North Korean-made products.

The performance of roads is known to progressively reduce as a result of separate and interactive effects of climate and traffic. Existing decision support tools such as HDM-4, which are widely used to investigate long-term road maintenance strategies, utilise past climate data instead of future climate predictions. Uncertainties inherent in future climate predictions however imply that application of such tools could lead to outputs that are not robust in light of climate change. The objectives of the study were threefold: firstly, to develop a rut depth prediction model that considered potential effects of future climate; secondly, to formulate a framework for quantification of uncertainties; and finally, to demonstrate the application of the tools developed using a case study. The model was developed using data provided by the UK Highways Agency and UK Climate Impacts Programme. The methodology used was based on Bayesian regression. The developed model was found to perform better than the current asphalt surfacing rut depth model implemented in HDM-4 when future climate data was used. It was concluded that probabilistic outputs from the tools developed including deterioration rates, pavement condition and discounted maintenance costs for each maintenance strategy, and future climate and socio-economic scenarios provide a useful decision making framework for considering alternative strategies for road maintenance on the basis of the level of climate change risks that can be tolerated.