Freight transport is the life-blood of today’s economy. Raw materials, components and finished products flow in vast quantities through complex supply chain systems to satisfy the demands of the ultimate customers. Although vital to ensure economic prosperity, freight transport also poses a large burden on the environment and society. Road remains a dominant mode of freight transport in the UK, with 65% of the total tonne-kms moved and 82% of tonnes lifted in 2008. Most of the externalities associated with road freight transport have already been subject to legal environmental controls. CO2 emissions are the only externality that still remains unregulated. In order to evaluate the effects of potential regulations or other policy options, decision makers need a reliable forecast of the future course of the road freight transport- related CO2 emissions in the absence of such new initiatives and interventions. Most currently available forecasts relate to road transport as a whole and focus on the passenger vehicle activity. Forecasts of road freight volumes and related externalities are typically linked to trends in economic activity, ignoring changes in the nature of logistics and supply chain systems. Hence, the aim of this thesis is to produce a forecast of road freight transport – related CO2 emissions up to 2020 on a business-as-usual (BAU) basis by incorporating the projections on future trends in a number of logistics and road freight transport variables and the driving forces behind them. The theoretical foundations of the logistics and supply chain management discipline continuously evolve, allowing researchers to view real-world problems from an array of philosophical perspectives, leading to scientific advancement and enrichment of the body of knowledge. This thesis is rooted in the critical realist paradigm and employs methodological triangulation involving focus group research, a Delphi questionnaire survey and spreadsheet modelling to produce a reliable BAU forecast of future CO2 emissions from road freight transport. In addition to the forecast of future CO2 emissions from Heavy Goods Vehicles, this research also elicits forecasts of changes in key logistics and freight transport variables such as handling factor, average length of haul, modal split, empty running, lading factor and fuel efficiency up to 2020. The main structural, commercial, operational, functional, external and product-related factors behind future trends in these variables are also investigated. The BAU scenario is assessed in the light of the UK greenhouse gas reduction target and additional scenarios offering CO2 savings greater than that predicted by the BAU case modelled. The thesis concludes with a review of potential policy measures that could help to reduce the future CO2 emissions from road freight transport.

This research work attempts to construct econometric models of the demand for travel. Basically, the models depend on a relationship between the amounts of travel demand and household income, but there is an inbuilt sensitivity to the level of service provided by different transport systems. To achieve this, a new method of valuing non-working time was developed. By applying the principle that the amount of travel is governed by household budgets of time and money it is possible to estimate the effect on the numbers of trips and their lengths caused by modifying the road system or by otherwise changing the cost of travel. The models therefore depart from the traditional four stage transportation planning techniques and they effectively combine modal choice with trip generation. To complement these travel demand models a new approach to traffic assignment has been developed. The method uses concepts of "relative attractiveness" and "accessibility" of routes to simulate drivers' choice of route. Additionally, this process provides estimated values of parameters required as "feedback" to the travel demand models. An important feature of the work is that all models are simple in concept and application and they require relatively small amounts of data to be collected.

The dynamics of policy change are inevitably complex, and can involve inputs at all stages of the policy process. These stages are to some extent interdependent, and the expertise of the implementer, together with the usually long time-scale involved in an implementation process, would suggest that those who execute a policy are particularly well placed to influence change. At the same time there is also considerable scope for discontinuity within the process, with the result that policy change can come about from autonomous events at the policy-making level, and have little connection with the work of the implementer. The aggregative model of implementation, put forward by Dunsire, is considered to be a particularly valuable tool for gauging these connections and discontinuities. The case study examines the creation and implementation of legislation affecting the bus industry since the beginning of the Twentieth Century. The category of operators chosen for study is that of the territorial busmen, who in earlier years were subject to the control of the entrepreneurs, but in recent times have come under state ownership in the form of the National Bus Company (NBC). An organizational analysis of the NBC suggests that it retains many of the traditional values of the company busmen, despite suffering from declining passenger demand. The final part of the case study looks at a number of NBC subsidiaries, and traces the inter-organizational dynamics of the relationship with the County Councils in which their services operate. The evidence of the case study suggests that the capacity for discontinuity within the policy process was initially under-estimated, and that although implementers possess great power within their own sphere, it is policy-makers who are in a more advantageous position to initiate radical change.

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