No description available.

No description available.

No description available.

No description available.

published_or_final_version / Community Medicine / Master / Master of Public Health

An accidental criticality may occur in a solution of fissile material. Since the processing of nuclear materials in solution is prevalent throughout the fuel cycle, it would be judicious to have the capability to predict a possible hazard. In view of this concern, a computer simulation was performed of the Los Alamos accident of December 30, 1958, in which the actuation of an electric stirrer produced a sudden criticality. A complete equation of state for a liquid containing gas bubbles was coupled with the equations of energy, momentum, and space-independent point kinetics. Multiplication calculations, implemented with the Monte Carlo Code for Neutron and Photon Transport (MCNP), were performed on thermally expanding solution geometries, to generate a reactivity feedback representation. With the knowledge of the total energy produced in the accident, the maximum reciprocal period on which the power rose was computed.

Trata-se de uma investigação de desenvolvimento metodológico cujo objetivo foram adaptação, validação e verificar a fidedignidade do Inventário Multidimensional do Estilo de Dirigir (MDSI – Multidimensional Driving Style Inventory) para a língua portuguesa, aplicada para condutores que possuem Carteira Nacional de Habilitação ou Permissão para Dirigir. No instrumento foram realizados os procedimentos de tradução - versão e retroversão; analise do instrumento de acordo com os critérios comportamental, de objetividade, de clareza, de simplicidade, de relevância, de precisão, de variabilidade, de modalidade, bem como critérios de amplitude e de equilíbrio; adequação do construto; análise semântica por parte dos alunos-avaliadores; definição e delimitação de amostras; escolha do método de aplicação do instrumento; e aplicação do MDSI. Através do programa de estatística “SPSS" os 44 itens definiram os 08 fatores: estressado, agressivo, negligente, perigoso, senso-emocional, preventivo, relaxante e desatento. A análise dos 206 questionários aplicados nos motoristas da cidade de Ribeirão Preto e região, utilizando uma escala Likert, variando de nunca até sempre, concluiu que quando os condutores apresentarem características de serem negligentes, percebe-se que há maior possibilidade de ser um motorista relaxante e menor possibilidade de ser um motorista preventivo; conforme aumenta o índice do motorista perigoso, maiores serão os índices do senso-emocional e desatento e menor o índice do fator preventivo; o motorista preventivo está negativamente associado ao fator desatento; os motoristas homens têm comprovadamente índices mais elevados nos estilo relaxante; as mulheres apresentam maiores índices no estilo desatento; na variável idade, quando mais alta a idade do sujeito maior será o seu índice do estilo preventivo e quando menor for a idade maiores serão os índices dos fatores perigoso, senso-emocional e desatento. Foi realizada a análise de fidedignidade de cada item, onde 77,27% não apresentaram variação significativa; na análise da fidedignidade de cada sujeito: apresentou um alto índice de correlação de 0,6198. O teste MDSI deve ser aplicado em todos os motoristas que irão renovar a Carteira Nacional de Habilitação ou que tiveram sua Carteira Nacional de Habilitação suspensa ou cassada, pois servirá de aconselhamento, sem caráter reprovativo, apenas informativo. / This is about an inquiry of methodological development whose objective was adaptation, validation and to verify the reliability of the Multidimensional Driving Style Inventory (MDSI - Multidimensional Driving Style Inventory) for the Portuguese language, applied in conductors who possess National Wallet of Qualification or Permission To Drive. In the instrument had been carried through the translation procedures – in both directions; analyzes of the instrument in accordance with the criteria of behavior, of objectivity, clarity, simplicity, relevance, precision, variability, modality, as well as criteria of amplitude and balance; adequacy of construct; analysis semantics on the part of the pupil-appraisers; definition and delimitation of samples; choice of the method of application of the instrument; and application of the MDSI. Through the program of the 44 statistics \"SPSS\" item had defined the 08 factors: stressed, aggressive, negligent, dangerous, sense-emotional, preventive, relaxing and neglect. The analysis of the 206 questionnaires applies in drivers of Ribeirão Preto city, using a Likert scale, varied of never until always, concluded that when the conductors to present characteristics to be negligent, perceived that he has greater possibility of being a relaxing driver and lesser possibility of being a preventive driver; as it increases the index of the dangerous driver, bigger will be the indices of sense-emotional and neglect and lesser the index of the preventive factor; the preventive driver is negatively associated with the negligent factor; the men drivers confirmedly have elevated indices in the relaxing style; the women present greater indices in the negligent style; in the variable age, when higher the age of the citizen biggest will be its index of the preventive style and when lesser it will be the age biggest will be the indices of the factors dangerous, sense-emotional and neglect. The analysis of reliability of each item was carried through, where 77.27% had not presented significant variation; in the analysis of the reliability of each citizen: it presented a high index of correlation of 0,6198. Test MDSI must be applied in all the drivers who will go to renew the Wallet National of Qualification or that they had its National Wallet Qualification suspended or annulled, therefore will serve of advising , without reprobation character, only informative.

La presente tesis va encaminada al estudio de la gravedad de los accidentes industriales con sustancias peligrosas mediante la utilización del análisis histórico de accidentes. Su objetivo final es utilizar el tratamiento cuantitativo de dicho análisis para desarrollar una metodología que permita predecir la gravedad de los accidentes.Los factores de riesgo que determinan la mayor o menor gravedad de los accidentes son tantos y tan complejos, que las aproximaciones determinísticas tradicionales no permiten desarrollar modelos adecuados que describan correctamente la realidad. Pretender establecer una correlación de determinados factores de riesgo para predecir la potencial gravedad de un accidente es, hoy por hoy, cuanto menos, difícil.Existen muchas publicaciones y trabajos de recopilación en los que se detallan innumerables situaciones accidentales. En los últimos años, el desarrollo de bases de datos informatizadas permite una utilización masiva de estas informaciones. Sin embargo, la utilización tradicional del análisis histórico de accidentes se ha encaminado prioritariamente a la detección cualitativa de factores de riesgo y de forma secundaria, al desarrollo cuantitativo de determinados modelos.El trabajo aquí presentado parte del estudio de diversas recopilaciones de accidentes de reconocido prestigio y de la aplicación de técnicas cuantitativas que permitan establecer o aproximar la potencial gravedad de los accidentes industriales en los que intervienen de manera directa sustancias peligrosas.Para ello, en el Capítulo 1, introductorio, se analiza la situación global de la seguridad industrial en España, se estudian las técnicas utilizadas en el análisis de riesgos y se presenta la orientación y el esquema general de este trabajo. En el Capítulo 2 se revisan los índices de riesgo más reconocidos, con el triple objetivo de conocer cuáles son los factores de riesgo determinantes en la gravedad de un accidente industrial, qué ponderación se hace de cada uno de ellos y qué relación matemática se establece para determinar el nivel de riesgo asociado a cada instalación.Dado que para el desarrollo de este trabajo era preciso seleccionar una base de datos en la que se recopilaran numerosos accidentes con sustancias peligrosas, en el Capítulo 3 se incluye una descripción detallada de las bases de datos y de las referencias bibliográficas que han servido de base o apoyo al estudio realizado. En los Anexos 1 y 2 se detallan la estructura y características fundamentales de las bases de datos MARS y MHIDAS. Este análisis permite identificar también determinados factores de riesgo en el uso industrial de sustancias peligrosas. Por la mayor disponibilidad de acceso, facilidad de tratamiento de la información y cantidad y calidad de los datos recogidos, se optó en su momento por basar el estudio en los accidentes de la base de datos MHIDAS. No obstante, en el análisis de diversas situaciones accidentales, se ha recurrido en muchas ocasiones a otras fuentes, también descritas.El Capítulo 4 presenta el estudio de la gravedad de los accidentes industriales en función de los factores descriptores disponibles en la base de datos MHIDAS (muertos, heridos y pérdidas económicas). Supone una primera aproximación al problema mediante estadística descriptiva permitiendo ratificar y cuantificar, a la luz del análisis histórico de accidentes, lo que el juicio experto indica de forma más o menos intuitiva y establecer las probabilidades de ocurrencia de accidentes de una determinada gravedad.La limitación más importante observada en los métodos estadísticos descritos en el Capítulo 4, es que los análisis realizados son uni o bivariantes, por lo que en cada caso se observan las relaciones entre una única variable explicativa y una variable respuesta. Con el fin de generalizar este análisis y poder observar las relaciones entre unas y otras variables, se presentan en el Capítulo 5 los resultados más significativos obtenidos al aplicar a los datos recopilados en MHIDAS, diversos métodos estadísticos multivariante. Los métodos utilizados han sido los siguientes: análisis de correspondencias múltiples y análisis de conglomerados, análisis de regresión múltiple, modelos logit, árboles de clasificación o decisión y análisis discriminante.En la medida en que cada uno de ellos lo permite, se ha intentado conocer el potencial predictivo y/o explicativo que cada método aplicado aporta al ser utilizado con los datos de MHIDAS. Los resultados obtenidos pueden tener validez y utilidad en el análisis cuantitativo de riesgos al permitir estimar la gravedad de los accidentes a partir de unos pocos parámetros generales.El Capítulo 6 presenta tres estudios concretos derivados de los análisis anteriores en los que, para ciertas tipologías de accidentes, se predice la evolución de su coste económico con el tiempo, la gravedad de los mismos en función de la cantidad de sustancia interviniente en las explosiones accidentales y una primera aproximación a los árboles de sucesos para sustancias inflamables.Finalmente se resumen las conclusiones derivadas de la realización de esta tesis y se recopila la bibliografía utilizada como referencia a lo largo de todo este estudio. / The present work is a study of the severity of industrial accidents involving hazardous substances using historical analysis. The final objective is to use a quantitative methodology to develop a technique to estimate the accidents severity.The hazards that determine the severity of the industrial accidents are much and very complex. Then, a conventional approach using deterministic techniques to develop models to predict the importance of the consequences are inadequate.There are many compilations and publications where it is possible to find a complete accident description. In the last years, using databases and information systems it has been possible to study a large number of accidents from a qualitative point of view. The traditional use of historical analysis of accidents is focused mainly on the qualitative detection of hazards and to the development of quantitative models.This work presents a study of several prestigious compilations of accidents and the application of quantitative techniques to these recompilations to estimate the severity of industrial accidents involving dangerous substances.Chapter 1 (an introduction), analyse the global situation of the industrial safety in Spain and presents the most important techniques used in the risk analysis showing the general structure of this work.Chapter 2 presents a review of the most important risk index to know what factors of risk are very relevant, the influence of each factor in the total level of risk of the plant and the mathematical relation between all of them.To develop this work it has been necessary to select a database where a big number of accidents involving hazardous substances have been compilated. In Chapter 3, it is included a detailed description of the databases and other bibliographic references used to develop this work. Annexes 1 and 2 detail the most important properties of MARS and MHIDAS databases respectively. This description permits also identify several relevant factors of risk in industrial environments working with dangerous substances. For his disposability, easiness of use, quantity and quality of information compiled, this study is focused on the MHIDAS database accidents. Nevertheless, in the analysis of several scenarios, other sources of information have been used.Chapter 4 presents the severity of these accidents as function of several factors available in MHIDAS database system (number of deaths, number of injured, number of evacuated and damage in economic units). This Chapter is a first approximation to the problem using descriptive statistics and its results permits to quantify and verify, using historical analysis of accidents, that the expert judgement shows in a more or less intuitive manner and provides the probabilities of occurrence of accidents of a determined severity.The most important limitation observed in the use of the statistical methods in Chapter 4 is that the analysis developed are uni or bivariate (they work only with one independent variable and one dependent variable) while in reality they are multivariate. In order to generalise these analyses and observe the relations between both variables, Chapter 5 shows the most significant results obtained applying several multivariate statistical methods to the data compiled in MHIDAS. The methods used in these analyses are: Multiple Correspondence analysis, cluster analysis, multiple regression analysis, logit models, decision trees analysis and discriminant analysis.According to the interesting results of each method, an attempt to know the predictive and/or descriptive potential of each method when it is used with MHIDAS data has been made. The obtained results have interest and utility in the quantitative risk analysis because they permit to estimate the severity of these accidents using a few parameters.Chapter 6 presents three studies developed from the previous analysis. In these studies, for certain typologies of accidents, it is possible to predict the evolution of the economic cost in time, the severity of these accidents and a first approach to the event tree for flammable substances.Finally, the conclusions arising from this study have been summarised, as well as the bibliography taken as a referent in the making of this study.

Texte remanié de: Th. doct.--Droit privé--Perpignan, 1998. / Bibliogr. p. 427-446. Index.

Thèse. Droit. Paris. 1943.