In the past, a lot of studies about the comparison of exchange rate forecasting models have been carried out. Most of these studies have a similar result which is the random walk model has the best forecasting performance. In this thesis, I want to find a model to beat the random walk model in forecasting the exchange rate. In my study, the vector autoregressive model (VAR), restricted vector autoregressive model (RVAR), vector error correction model (VEC), Bayesian vector autoregressive model are employed in the analysis. These multivariable time series models are compared with the random walk model by evaluating the forecasting accuracy of the exchange rate for three North European countries both in short-term and long-term. For short-term, it can be concluded that the random walk model has the best forecasting accuracy. However, for long-term, the random walk model is beaten. The equal accuracy test proves this phenomenon really exists.

Due to the complex diversity of contemporary Internet-services, computer network measurements have gained considerable interest during recent years. Since they supply network research, development and operations with data important for network traffic modelling, performance and trend analysis, etc. The quality of these measurements affect the results of these activities and thus the perception of the network and its services. This thesis contains a systematic investigation of computer network measurements and a comprehensive overview of factors influencing the quality of performance parameters obtained from computer network measurements. This is done using a novel network performance framework consisting of four modules: Generation, Measurement, Analysis and Visualization. These modules cover all major aspects controlling the quality of computer network measurements and thus the validity of all kinds of conclusions based on them. One major source of error is the timestamp accuracy obtained from measurement hardware and software. Therefore, a method is presented that estimates the timestamp accuracy obtained from measurement hardware and software. The method has been used to evaluate the timestamp accuracy of some commonly used hardware (Agilent J6800/J6830A and Endace DAG 3.5E) and software (Packet Capture Library). Furthermore, the influence of analysis on the quality of performance parameters is discussed. An example demonstrates how the quality of a performance metric (bitrate) is affected by different measurement tools and analysis methods. The thesis also contains performance evaluations of traffic generators, how accurately application-level measurements describe network behaviour, and of the quality of performance parameters obtained from PING and J-OWAMP. The major conclusion is that measurement systems and tools must be calibrated, verified and validated for the task of interest before using them for computer network measurements. A guideline is presented on how to obtain performance parameters at a desired quality level. / Datornät används i mer och mer i vårt dagliga liv, de används för att telefonera, läsa tidningar, se på TV, handla, boka resor etc. På grund av denna diversiteten bland tjänsterna så har mätningar blivit populära under senare år. Detta då de förser nätverksforskningen, utvecklingen och driften med data som används för trafik modellering, prestanda och trend analys. Kvaliteten på dessa mätningar kommer därför direkt påverka resultaten av dessa aktiviteter och därför vår uppfattning av nätverket och dess tjänster. I denna avhandling ger vi en systematisk översikt av datornätverks mätningar och en omfattande översikt av de faktorer som påverkar kvaliteten av prestanda parametrar som tas fram via mätningar. Detta görs genom ett nytt ramverks som beskriver de fyra moduler som påverkar mätningarnas kvalitet: generering, mätning, analys och visualisering. En av de stora källorna till kvalitets problem är noggrannheten på tidstämplar. Dessa tidstämplar beskriver när händelser skedde i nätverket. På grund av detta så presenterar vi en metod som kan uppskatta den tidstämpling noggrannhet som man kan få från mätverktyg, både hård och mjukvara. Metoden används för att utvärdera noggrannheten på några vanliga verktyg, två hårdvarubaserade system (Agilent J6800/J6830A och Endace DAG 3.5E) samt mjukvarubaserade system (Packet Capture Library). Vidare så diskuteras påverkan som analysen har på kvaliteten, och ett exempel ges på hur ett prestanda mått (bitrate) påverkas av mätsystem (hård/mjukvara) och analys metod. Avhandlingen innehåller dessutom utvärderingar av trafik generatorer, applikations mätningar och kvaliteten på mättningar gjorda med PING och J-OWAMP. Huvudslutsatsen i arbetet är att mätsystem och verktyg måste kalibreras, verifieras och valideras innan de används. Baserat på detta så presenterar vi en riktlinje över hur man gör detta.

The dissertation thesis is used as a methodology for prediction of selected parameters of rotational kinematic pairs of machine tools. The motivation for its writing has been continually increasing requirements for parameters (performance, accuracy, static and dynamic stiffness) of machine tools. The methodology takes into account the availability of suitable measuring devices and description of the design of rotary kinematic pairs. It will be useable for predicting the behavior of rotational kinematic pairs, even at the design stage by applying results to the machine design. The work is processed so that first is used a system approach to suggest methodology for prediction of the behavior of rotary kinematic pair in CNC machine tools, planning measurement strategy and verifying the results, including applications for specific kinematic chain of the selected machine. Based on this system approach and the resulting methodology, the measurement of the rotary kinematic pair was performed. The results of the system approach and measurement are generalized in the form of recommendations for designers of machining centers, allowing to increase the accuracy of the rotational kinematic pair.

This master‘s thesis is concerned by accuracy cutting of the process. The aim of this graduation theses is to describe metodology quantification of the parameters accuracy of cutting process and to check it. Firstly, there are the parameters accuracy of cutting process identified. Secondary, there are particular technological influences over accuracy of shaping process characterized. In the conclusion, there are characteristics accuracy of shaping process quantified and tested in practice.

The goal of this work is to propose a suitable methodology for measuring and evaluating the geometric precision of spindle rotation. Identification and classification of errors while moving spindle. Part of this work should be also a program in LabVIEW that evaluate the errors in the motion of the spindle. Practical functionality of the proposed measurement system should be tested at selected MCV754 QUICK machines, lathes SV 18 and milling machine FNG 32. For processing of the results should be used basic statistical procedures. This thesis includes research in the field of machine tool spindles and different ways of measuring spindle motion deviations from the ideal path. There is also included the effect of sensors to measuring spindle running accuracy and identification of suitable sensors applicable for this application. There is a proposal of measurement of selected machinery, and defines all the components required for measurements that were used during spindle running precision measurement. Part of this work is a basic description of the program developed for evaluating errors in the motion of the spindle.

Bc. Roman Kaňa Working accuracy machine MCV 754 Main aim of this diploma thesis is to find out the influence of volumetric compensations to working accuracy. This thesis consists of detail description of measuring with the aid of Ballbar and Laser Tracer, error compensation of the machine and also designing, machining and measuring of the control work-piece. According to results there is also evaluation of volumetric compensation benefits leading to increasing the working accuracy of measured machine.

The main research topic of this dissertation thesis deals with the influence of the working accuracy related to large CNC machines on the required workpiece properties. The state-of-the art has constantly been developed and the customer’s requirements directed to manufacturers of the machine tools are increasingly demanding. There is required a high accuracy, reliability, shortening delivery times etc. The manufacturer is expected to fulfill all the customer’s requirements. The machining accuracy is dependent, among others, on the positioning accuracy of a machine tool that represents the position of the cutting tool relative to a workpiece. The accuracy of a particular machine tool is therefore a limiting factor concerned with reaching the highest accuracy and quality of a workpiece. Acceptance test procedures are initially realized within a manufacturing shop floor and then within a customer environment. The main subject of the testing procedures is to verify. basic properties of a machine tool such as basic dimensions of a machine, strokes in all respective coordinates, machine travels and spindle speeds. A machining of a workpiece with a desired precision specified by the customer is also performed. In this thesis, a new methodology to calculate and determine errors concerned with machining on vertical lathes is proposed with the aim of predicting the machining accuracy of CNC machine tools. The objective of this work was to determine the influence of machining accuracy of a CNC machine in connection with a subsequent geometrical accuracy of a workpiece. Considered position of a tool relative to a workpiece will be affected by errors concerned with a kinematical inaccuracy, geometrical errors and errors related to machining forces. A vertical lathe SKIQ 30 produced by TOSHULIN, a.s. has been used as a testing machine on which the proposed methodology has been verified. During processing various calculations in this thesis there has been found out that the machining inaccuracy of the machine – main topic of interest – is influenced by the machining conditions such as cutting conditions, material to be machined and even the setting of working positions of the machine. For instance, a position of the cross slide is determined by a workpiece height and a position of the lathe carriage that is determined by a workpiece diameter and a travel of the slide that is also determined by a workpiece height. It can be stated then that to predict the machining accuracy of work pieces, it is important to know the behavior of the machine in its all range of working envelope. Based on the information acquired about the behavior of the machine, it can be determined an appropriate position for a workpiece setting that allows utilizing the maximum reachable accuracy with respect to the stiffness and geometrical accuracy of the machine tool. An appropriate setting of initial working position may influence the subsequent geometrical accuracy of a workpiece.

Purpose: This thesis deals with some questions from the field of empathic accuracy, i.e. ability to correctly and accurately infer mental states of others. We were especially interested in question whether people are able to reflect their own empathic accuracy and their own meta-accuracy, i.e. recognize how other people view them. We were also interested in the role of motivation for empathic accuracy. Methods: Experiment based on the method of interactions. After the interaction phase were the participants asked to fill in forms concerning their own experience and experience of their partner and try to estimate, how the partner viewed them. They also estimated the accuracy of their answers. Results: Experiment has shown that participants have quite accurate idea about what has their partner experienced and how they were perceived although the degree of right guesses was various. However the reflection of their empathic skill was minimal. Participants mostly could not estimate, whether their guesses were accurate or not. Self-evaluation of participants, who were less successful in recognition of others experiences, was less accurate than the self-evaluation of the more successful ones.

The main subject of this doctoral thesis is the influence of the geometrical accuracy of large CNC machine tools on desired features of produced work pieces. Doe to globalized market environment and competition producers of machine tools have changed their strategy for delivery of their products to customers. The main issue is not only to deliver a machine tool as such; supporting instructions related to the technology of the cutting process on the machine tool are of great importance. When taking delivery, the customer can see a new machine tool that will produce by him specified work piece with a desired accuracy. In the proposed thesis, a development of a novel methodology of measuring vertical lathes for prediction of chosen geometrical parameters of work pieces is introduced. The main goal of this work has been to determine the influence of the geometrical accuracy of selected design groups of a vertical lath on the future geometric accuracy of the work piece. The proposed methodology has been developed and verified on a selected vertical lath SKIQ30 produced by TOSHULIN, a.s. For identification of chosen parameters of the vertical lath a measuring system using latest measuring technologies has been applied. The basic tool for measured data processing has been a set of statistic methods for prediction of behaviour of measured design groups of the machine. The foundation for statistical processing has been calculation of geometrical deviations obtained from algorithms designed for proposed measurement methodology. The proposed measurement methodology for vertical lathes has been divided into two parts. In the first part, the methodology of measurement and evaluation of linear axes is solved, where a measuring system Laser Track has been used. The employment of the system Laser Track turned out to be very suitable. Conclusions related to the accuracy of the measuring device have been drawn in the thesis. The second part of the proposed methodology is represented by observation and description of the rotating disk, where non-contact position transducers have been used. In the course of the doctoral dissertation it has been observed that the studied (with respect to the geometry) behaviour of the machine is significantly affected by the cutting conditions. To these belong the loading of the rotating disc by the mass of the work piece, angular velocity of the rotating disc and the operating time of the machine. Based on these observations it can be stated that for prediction of work piece features it is essential to know the behaviour of the machine tool in the whole range of the operating speeds and loading of the rotating disc. A part of the proposed methodology for measuring vertical lathes seems to be very suitable for a design of a diagnostic system that could be applied on large rotating disc. Furthermore, it is recommended to extend the doctoral thesis in order to develop a unit for compensation of geometrical errors on rotating discs of vertical lathes.

Eyewitness testimony plays a crucial role in the justice system. Misidentification from eyewitnesses was reported in 70% of 300 DNA exonerations of wrongfully convicted individuals (Wixted et al., 2015). Similarly, many convicts can also be set free because of juror’s faulty eyewitness recall during examination. Previous research indicated that females are more reliable in recall than men. However, these findings were not extensively examined with regards to time delay prior to the trial. Thus, it is important to systematically examine the various factors that influence eyewitness testimony. The present study was designed to empirically examine the effects of gender, interview technique, and time interval on eyewitness recall. It was hypothesized that female participants would outscore male participants in both facial and detail recall. It was also hypothesized that the cognitive interview would yield more accurate details about the crime in comparison to the standard interview. It was hypothesized that recall for participants would decay as the time interval increased. One hundred and four participants were randomly selected from a southeastern university to participate in the study. Ages of the participants ranged from 18-40 and consisted of fifty-two males and fifty-two females. They were required to complete a series of questionnaires consisting of demographics, mood measure, personality test, and standard/cognitive interviews. The results showed a significant effect between gender, interview technique, and time interval on detail recall. In addition, there was a significant main effect for interview type. There was a significant effect of gender and time interval on facial recall. It was found that extraversion significantly predicted detail recall as did agreeableness and neuroticism. The present findings further extend previous research examining the most effective interviewing techniques for eyewitness recall. It also indicated that females can accurately recall faces after a time delay in comparison to men. Furthermore, these results also clearly indicate that gender and time interval play a significant role in facial recall. Finally, the findings have practical implications for the jury selection system. For example, attorneys and judges might be inclined to choose women over men for specific cases where eyewitness details may be crucial for conviction. In addition, they may also use facial shots in order to enhance eyewitness recall. Personality measures can assist detectives to determine if a suspect is suitable for an interview. If at all possible, administering personality test for jurors may help in determining certain personality types are more prone to error.