In this dissertation, we examine an advection diffusion model for insects inhabiting a spatially heterogeneous environment and moving toward a more favorable environment. We first study the effects of adding a term describing drift or advection toward a favorable environment to diffusion models for population dynamics. The diffusion model is a basic linear two-dimensional diffusion equation describing local dispersal of species. The mathematical advection terms are taken to be Fickian and describe directed movement of the population toward the favorable environment. For this model, the landscape is composed of one homogeneous habitat patch embedded in a spatially heterogeneous environment and the boundary of the habitat inhabited by the population acts as a lethal edge. We also derived the mean occupancy time and the boundary flux of the habitat patch. The diffusion rate and advection parameters of the advection diffusion model are estimated based on mean occupancy time and boundary flux. We then introduce two methods for the identification of these coefficients in the model as well as the capture rate. These two new methods have some advantages over other methods of estimating those parameters, including reduced computational cost and ease of use in the field. We further examine the statistical properties of new methods through simulation, and discuss how mean occupancy time and boundary flux could be estimated in field experiments.

This thesis provides a mathematical framework for the development of efficient control strategies that satisfy the charters of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) which aims to maintain pest population at a low impact level. This mathematical framework is based on a dynamical system approach and comprises the construction of mathematical models, their theoretical study, the development of adequate schemes for numerical solutions and reliable procedures for parameter identification. The first output of this thesis is the construction of trap-insect spatio-temporal models formulated via advection-diffusion-reaction processes. These models were used to simulate numerically trapping to compare with field data. As a result, practical protocols were identified to estimate pest-population size and distribution as well as its dispersal capacity and parameter values related to the attractiveness of the traps. The second major output of this thesis is the prediction of the impact of a specific control method: mating disruption using a female pheromone and trapping. A compartmental model, formulated via a system of ordinary differential equations, was built based on biological and mating behaviour knowledge of the pest. The theoretical analysis of the model yields threshold values for the dosage of the pheromone above which extinction of the population is ensured. The practical relevance of the results obtained in this thesis shows that mathematical modelling is an essential supplement to experiments in optimizing control strategies. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2016. / Mathematics and Applied Mathematics / PhD / Unrestricted