This thesis provides a mathematical framework for the development of efficient control strategies that satisfy the charters of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) which aims to maintain pest population at a low impact level. This mathematical framework is based on a dynamical system approach and comprises the construction of mathematical models, their theoretical study, the development of adequate schemes for numerical solutions and reliable procedures for parameter identification. The first output of this thesis is the construction of trap-insect spatio-temporal models formulated via advection-diffusion-reaction processes. These models were used to simulate numerically trapping to compare with field data. As a result, practical protocols were identified to estimate pest-population size and distribution as well as its dispersal capacity and parameter values related to the attractiveness of the traps. The second major output of this thesis is the prediction of the impact of a specific control method: mating disruption using a female pheromone and trapping. A compartmental model, formulated via a system of ordinary differential equations, was built based on biological and mating behaviour knowledge of the pest. The theoretical analysis of the model yields threshold values for the dosage of the pheromone above which extinction of the population is ensured. The practical relevance of the results obtained in this thesis shows that mathematical modelling is an essential supplement to experiments in optimizing control strategies. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2016. / Mathematics and Applied Mathematics / PhD / Unrestricted

This thesis is composed of two economic evaluations: one trial-based study and one model-based study. In a recent study published in Clinical Infectious Diseases in 2011, a team of OUCRU investigators found that immediate antiretroviral therapy (ART) was not associated with improved 9-month survival in HIV-associated TBM patients (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, .81 to–1.55; P = .50). An economic evaluation of this clinical trial was conducted to examine the cost-effectiveness of immediate ART (initiate ART within 1 week of study entry) versus deferred ART (initiate ART after 2 months of TB treatment) in HIV-associated TBM patients. Over 9 months, immediate ART was not different from deferred ART in terms of costs and QALYs gained. Late initiation of ART during TB and HIV treatment for HIV-positive TBM patients proved to be the most cost-effective strategy. Increasing resistance of Plasmodium falciparum malaria to artemisinin is posing a major threat to the global effort to eliminate malaria. Artesmisinin combination therapies (ACT) are currently known as the most efficacious first-line therapies to treat uncomplicated malaria. However, resistance to both artemisinin and partner drugs is developing and this could result in increasing morbidity, mortality, and economic costs. One strategy advocated for delaying the development of resistance to the ACTs is the wide-scale deployment of multiple first-line therapies. A previous modeling study examined that the use of multiple first-line therapies (MFT) reduced the long-term treatment failures compared with strategies in which a single first-line ACT was recommended. Motivated by observed results of the published modelling study in the Lancet, the cost-effectiveness of the MFT versus the single first-line therapies was assessed in settings of different transmission intensities, treatment coverages and fitness cost of resistance using a previously developed model of the dynamics of malaria and a literature –based cost estimate of changing antimalarial drug policy at national level. This study demonstrates that the MFT strategies outperform the single first-line strategies in terms of costs and benefits across the wide range of epidemiological and economic scenarios considered. The second analysis of the thesis is not only internationally relevant but also with a focus towards healthcare practice in Vietnam. These two studies add significant new cost-effectiveness evidence in Vietnam. This thesis presents the first trial-based economic evaluation in Vietnam considers patient-health outcome measures as the participants have cognitive limitations (tuberculous meningitis), dealing with missing data along with the potential ways to handle this common problem by the use of multiple imputation, and the issues of censored costs data. Having identified these issues would support the decision makers or stakeholders including the pharmaceutical industry to devise a new guideline on how to implement a well-design trial-based economic evaluation in Vietnam in the future. Another novelty of this thesis is the introduction of the detailed of costing of drug regimens change in which the economic evaluations considering the drug policy change often do not include. This cost could be substantial to the healthcare system for retraining the staff and publishing the new guidelines. This thesis will document the costs incurred by the Vietnamese government by changing the first-line treatment of malaria, from single first-line therapy (ACT) to multiple first-line therapies.

The study investigated the application of the crime threat analysis process at station level within the Nelson Mandela Metro City area with the objective of determining inhibiting factors (constraints) and best practices. Qualitative research methodology was applied and interviews were conducted with crime analysts and specialised investigators/intelligence analysts. The research design can be best described as descriptive and explorative in nature. The crime threat analysis process embroils the application of various crime analysis techniques and the outcomes thereof intends to have a dual purpose of generating operational crime management information in assisting crime prevention initiatives and crime detection efforts, mainly focussing on the criminal activities of group offenders (organised crime related), repeat offenders and serial offenders. During the study it became evident that crime analysts understand and thus apply the crime threat analysis process indifferently, which impeded on the relevancy and the utilisation thereof as an effective crime management tool. / Criminology / M.Tech. (Policing)

The study investigated the application of the crime threat analysis process at station level within the Nelson Mandela Metro City area with the objective of determining inhibiting factors (constraints) and best practices. Qualitative research methodology was applied and interviews were conducted with crime analysts and specialised investigators/intelligence analysts. The research design can be best described as descriptive and explorative in nature. The crime threat analysis process embroils the application of various crime analysis techniques and the outcomes thereof intends to have a dual purpose of generating operational crime management information in assisting crime prevention initiatives and crime detection efforts, mainly focussing on the criminal activities of group offenders (organised crime related), repeat offenders and serial offenders. During the study it became evident that crime analysts understand and thus apply the crime threat analysis process indifferently, which impeded on the relevancy and the utilisation thereof as an effective crime management tool. / Criminology and Security Science / M.Tech. (Policing)