In this thesis we present model of the human work process on projects using multi-agent model. Within the project management plan is carried out comparisons with the fact not only in the context of subsequent checks, but also in the course of the project. One of the most item is cost of human resources. To increase efficiency and control over the actual cost to introducing a range of organizations link the accounting system to a system of reporting work. Such a system registry of the work is not only complex, but also demanding in terms of managing the time gap between the creation of estimates and their own work. In general, there may be several variants of complications such as delay work on the project because of inaccurate estimates of job performance and therefore insufficient funds in the accounts sections and stages of the project. The aim of this work is to find the characteristics of such projects for which this system work. In the first part we are addressed basic theoretical assumptions for modeling work in the field of project management and multi-agent modeling. Next part relates to the creation of multi-agent model, including detailed characteristics and verification. At the end of this research are described a several experiments with the model and analysis results.

Democracy is always included in the discourse ?ver the theme of freedom and it is almost always considered an integral part of social order. In this context, it is a balance between freedom and power. Such discourses, however, view democracy as a political ideal and the real applications often run into democratic influences and social barriers of degenerative nature. These barriers leave nothing but the torso under the formal guise of democratic principles. This thesis unravels the influences and barriers that interfere with the application of the ideal of democracy. In this context, the technological development with which the dynamics of both social and political order changes, cannot be ignored. Based on the pieces of information about what kind of threat the degenerative effects of democracy represent, the thesis searches for such attributes, on the basis of which it is possible to construct a model of the entropic degeneration of democracy.

Realizar a análise econômica de uma produção agropecuária não é algo trivial, seja pela enorme heterogeneidade entre cada unidade produtiva, seja porque utiliza muitos recursos naturais, alguns de difícil mensuração. Há diversos métodos disponíveis para o cálculo do custo de produção, que é o indicador chave para a análise da viabilidade de um empreendimento. O desafio é permitir que a projeção da atividade no horizonte produtivo seja a mais real e dinâmica possível. A simulação computacional é atualmente uma das mais poderosas ferramentas de análise disponível para o planejamento, projeto e controle de sistemas complexos, e vem sendo cada vez mais utilizada e difundida. Simular compreende a elaboração de um método de experimentação que, através da construção de modelos de um sistema real, procura descrever comportamentos, construir teorias ou hipóteses por meio do observado e predizer comportamentos futuros. O uso de modelos de simulação, que incorporem o risco e a probabilidade dentro produção animal, pode ser uma alternativa tanto técnica - auxiliando na tomada de decisão, gestão e planejamento pecuário, quanto científica - permitindo a avaliação de efeitos de resultados da pesquisa e identificação de limitantes que podem incentivar o desenvolvimento de pesquisas futuras. O modelo de simulação híbrido - baseado em simulação de eventos discretos e baseado em agentes, aqui proposto - visou identificar coeficientes zootécnicos e os critérios de manejo que mais impactam a produção de ovinos de corte. Esse modelo de simulação computacional híbrido possui caráter dinâmico e probabilístico, com eventos marcados no tempo (estação de monta, gestação, parição, desmame, engorda, abate, entre outras) e complexos o suficiente para que seus agentes sofram alterações tanto no tempo quanto em resposta a ocorrência ou não das variáveis ligadas a eles. Os resultados dos experimentos e dos cenários estudados revelaram que dentre os índices zootécnicos das matrizes, a ocorrência de aborto gera maior impacto na taxa de abate e financeiramente na margem líquida operacional. Contudo, analisando as variáveis tanto para matrizes como para cordeiros, a mortalidade neonatal, até os cinco dias de vida dos cordeiros, demonstrou ser o ponto fundamental para a lucratividade da atividade. A estabilização do rebanho foi mais afetada pela presença de matrizes adultas no plantel, que culminaram no aumento no número de cordeiros por matriz. Os resultados da análise dos fluxos de caixa de 30 anos, a uma taxa mínima de atratividade de 6,17% aa, permitiram constatar que iniciar a atividade com número muito reduzido de matrizes é o cenário menos interessantes, com taxa interna de retorno negativa para o período de análise. O estudo do fluxo de caixa permitiu atribuir a 200 matrizes como o tamanho de rebanho inicial mais interessante (TIR = 3,30% aa). Assim, o uso de simuladores híbridos baseados em simulação de eventos discretos e baseados em agentes, para estudos na pecuária nacional, apresentou-se como ferramenta com grande potencial de contribuição, no sentido de permitir conhecer os resultados possíveis das diferentes combinações tecnológicas disponíveis. O modelo ainda permite ser utilizado como ferramenta de estudo e análise para a cadeia produtiva, contribuindo na orientação aos cientistas, auxiliando no direcionamento de seus esforços no desenvolvimento de futuras pesquisas / Conduct an economic analysis of agricultural production is not trivial, either by its enormous heterogeneity between each production unit, or because it uses many natural resources, some of which are difficult to measure. There are several methods available for calculating the cost of production, which is the key indicator for assessing the feasibility of a project. The challenge is to allow the projection of activity in the productive horizon in the most real and dynamic form as possible. The computer simulation is currently one of the most powerful analysis tools available for planning, design and control of complex systems and is being increasingly used and disseminated. Simulate includes the development of a method of testing by building models of a real system, that seeks to describe behaviors, build theories or hypotheses through noted and predicted future behaviors. The use of simulation models that incorporate uncertainty and probability in animal production can be both an alternative technique - assisting in decision-making, management and livestock planning; as scientific - allowing the evaluation of the research results of effects and identification of limiting that may encourage the development of future research. The model of hybrid simulation - based on discrete event simulation and on agent-based, proposed here - aimed to identify factors husbandry and management criteria that most affect the production of meat sheep. The model of hybrid computer simulation have dynamic and probabilistic characteristics, with events scheduled in time (breeding season, pregnancy, parturition, weaning, fattening, slaughter, etc.) and enough complexity that its agents be adversely affected both in time and in response to the occurrence or not of variables linked to them. The results of the experiments and the scenarios studied showed that among the zootechnical indexes of the sheep, the occurrence of abortion generates a greater impact on the slaughter rate and financially in the net operating margin. However, analyzing the variables for both sheep and lambs, neonatal mortality, up to the lambs\' five days of life, proved to be the fundamental point for the profitability of the activity. The stabilization of the herd was more affected by the presence of adult sheep in the herd, which culminated increasing the number of lambs per sheep. The results of the analysis of the 30-year cash flows, at a minimum attractiveness rate of 6.17% per year, showed that starting the activity with a very small number of sheep was the least interesting scenario, with a negative internal rate of return for the analysis period. The study of the cash flow allowed to assign to 200 sheep as the most interesting initial herd size (IRR = 3.30% per year). Thus, the use of hybrid simulators, based on discrete event simulation and agent-based for studies in national livestock, is presented as a tool with great potential to contribute, to allow knowing the possible outcomes of different combinations of available technology. The model also allows to be used as a study tool and assessment of different technological combinations for the production chain, contributing to the guidance of scientists, assisting their efforts in the development of future research

L'île de La Réunion, inscrite au patrimoine mondial de l'UNESCO pour la beauté de ses paysages et pour sa biodiversité exceptionnelle, va accueillir dans les prochaines années une population de plus en plus importante. Les documents de planification réglementant l'évolution de l'urbanisation dans l'île doivent donc en tenir compte afin de gérer au mieux l'évolution et la structuration du foncier local. Dans un contexte de recherche pluridisciplinaire, l'enjeu de nos travaux est donc de proposer des méthodes et outils facilitant les interactions entre les informaticiens et les thématiciens qui apportent leur expertise à la construction de modèles de simulation dédiés à la prospective territoriale et de faire en sorte que ces modèles puissent fournir des pistes de réflexions aux décideurs confrontés aux choix de demain afin d'aider à mettre en place une organisation des territoires qui soit la plus cohérente possible. Après avoir participé à la réalisation de DS, un modèle qui permet de simuler conjointement l'évolution de la population et celle du Mode d'Occupation des Sols à La Réunion, nous nous sommes focalisés sur l'étude de l'émergence, une notion qui apparaît dans nos simulations en environnement spatialisé, mais pour laquelle il n'existe pas d'outils génériques permettant de la manipuler. Nous l'avons définie comme étant une méta-connaissance, ce qui nous a permis de proposer une méthodologie de conception de simulations et un cadre formel qui ont abouti à la mise en place de structures émergentes dans la plateforme de simulation GEAMAS-NG. Celle-ci, ou les entités de la SOA elles-mêmes, peuvent ainsi prendre conscience de l'émergence de phénomènes et les matérialiser en ayant recours à la connaissance des thématiciens. Nous avons alors montré l'intérêt de ces propositions en expérimentant la réification de phénomènes émergents observés dans DS. / Reunion Island will be hosting in the coming years an increasingly important population. Documents dedicated to land-use planning should take this into account to better manage the evolutions of the island. In the context of multidisciplinary research, the challenge of our work is to propose methods and tools to facilitate interactions between computer scientists and thematicians who bring their expertise to the construction of simulation models dedicated to territorial prospective. We co-constructed DS, an agent-based model that simulates the evolutions of the population and of the land-use on the island, and then we focused on the study of emergence, a concept that appears in our simulations in spatial environment. We defined it as a meta-knowledge; and that enabled us to propose a modelling methodology and a formal framework that lead to the introduction of emerging structures in the Agent-Based Simulation platform GEAMAS-NG. The systems, or the entities of the models themselves, can now be aware of the emergence of phenomena and can materialize these phenomena by using the knowledge of thematicians. We finally demonstrated the usefulness of these proposals by experimenting the reification of an emergent phenomenon observed in DS.

The National Transportation System (NTS) is undoubtedly a complex system-of-systems---a collection of diverse 'things' that evolve over time, organized at multiple levels, to achieve a range of possibly conflicting objectives, and never quite behaving as planned. The purpose of this research is to develop a virtual transportation architecture for the ultimate goal of formulating an integrated decision-making framework. The foundational endeavor begins with creating an abstraction of the NTS with the belief that a holistic frame of reference is required to properly study such a multi-disciplinary, trans-domain system. The culmination of the effort produces the Transportation Architecture Field (TAF) as a mental model of the NTS, in which the relationships between four basic entity groups are identified and articulated. This entity-centric abstraction framework underpins the construction of a virtual NTS couched in the form of an agent-based model. The transportation consumers and the service providers are identified as adaptive agents that apply a set of preprogrammed behavioral rules to achieve their respective goals. The transportation infrastructure and multitude of exogenous entities (disruptors and drivers) in the whole system can also be represented without resorting to an extremely complicated structure. The outcome is a flexible, scalable, computational model that allows for examination of numerous scenarios which involve the cascade of interrelated effects of aviation technology, infrastructure, and socioeconomic changes throughout the entire system.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:55:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AlbertoS_TESE.pdf: 2680432 bytes, checksum: d2f2fd640ed137e3f09bc41cd4afd853 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-08-17 / Simulations based on cognitively rich agents can become a very intensive computing task, especially when the simulated environment represents a complex system. This situation becomes worse when time constraints are present. This kind of simulations would benefit from a mechanism that improves the way agents perceive and react to changes in these types of environments. In other worlds, an approach to improve the efficiency (performance and accuracy) in the decision process of autonomous agents in a simulation would be useful. In complex environments, and full of variables, it is possible that not every information available to the agent is necessary for its decision-making process, depending indeed, on the task being performed. Then, the agent would need to filter the coming perceptions in the same as we do with our attentions focus. By using a focus of attention, only the information that really matters to the agent running context are perceived (cognitively processed), which can improve the decision making process. The architecture proposed herein presents a structure for cognitive agents divided into two parts: 1) the main part contains the reasoning / planning process, knowledge and affective state of the agent, and 2) a set of behaviors that are triggered by planning in order to achieve the agent s goals. Each of these behaviors has a runtime dynamically adjustable focus of attention, adjusted according to the variation of the agent s affective state. The focus of each behavior is divided into a qualitative focus, which is responsible for the quality of the perceived data, and a quantitative focus, which is responsible for the quantity of the perceived data. Thus, the behavior will be able to filter the information sent by the agent sensors, and build a list of perceived elements containing only the information necessary to the agent, according to the context of the behavior that is currently running. Based on the human attention focus, the agent is also dotted of a affective state. The agent s affective state is based on theories of human emotion, mood and personality. This model serves as a basis for the mechanism of continuous adjustment of the agent s attention focus, both the qualitative and the quantative focus. With this mechanism, the agent can adjust its focus of attention during the execution of the behavior, in order to become more efficient in the face of environmental changes. The proposed architecture can be used in a very flexibly way. The focus of attention can work in a fixed way (neither the qualitative focus nor the quantitaive focus one changes), as well as using different combinations for the qualitative and quantitative foci variation. The architecture was built on a platform for BDI agents, but its design allows it to be used in any other type of agents, since the implementation is made only in the perception level layer of the agent. In order to evaluate the contribution proposed in this work, an extensive series of experiments were conducted on an agent-based simulation over a fire-growing scenario. In the simulations, the agents using the architecture proposed in this work are compared with similar agents (with the same reasoning model), but able to process all the information sent by the environment. Intuitively, it is expected that the omniscient agent would be more efficient, since they can handle all the possible option before taking a decision. However, the experiments showed that attention-focus based agents can be as efficient as the omniscient ones, with the advantage of being able to solve the same problems in a significantly reduced time. Thus, the experiments indicate the efficiency of the proposed architecture / Simula??es baseadas em agentes cognitivos podem se tornar tarefas computacionalmente intensivas, especialmente quando o ambiente de simula??o ? um sistema complexo. Este panorama se torna pior na medida em que restri??es de tempo s?o adotadas. Simula??es desse tipo seriam beneficiadas por um mecanismo que melhorasse o modo pelo qual os agentes percebem e reagem a mudan?as nesses tipos de ambiente. Ou seja, uma abordagem para melhorar a efici?ncia (desempenho e acur?cia) no processo de decis?o de agentes aut?nomos em uma simula??o, seria ?til. Em ambientes complexos e repletos de vari?veis, ? poss?vel que nem todas as informa??es dispon?veis para o agente sejam necess?rias para o seu processo de decis?o, dependendo, ? claro, da tarefa que esteja sendo executada. O agente precisaria filtrar as informa??es que lhe chegam, assim como n?s o fazemos com o nosso foco de aten??o. Com a utiliza??o de um foco de aten??o, somente as informa??es importantes ao contexto de execu??o do agente s?o percebidas (processadas cognitivamente), o que pode melhorar o processo de decis?o. A arquitetura proposta neste trabalho apresenta uma estrutura de agentes cognitivos dividida em duas partes: 1) uma parte principal contendo o racioc?nio/planejamento, o conhecimento e o estado afetivo do agente e, 2) um conjunto de comportamentos que ser?o acionados pelo planejamento com o intuito de atingir os objetivos do agente. Cada um desses comportamentos possui um foco de aten??o ajust?vel dinamicamente durante o tempo de execu??o do agente, de acordo com a varia??o do seu estado afetivo. O foco de aten??o presente em cada comportamento ? dividido em foco qualitativo, o qual ? respons?vel pela qualidade dos dados percebidos, e foco quantitativo, o qual ? respons?vel pela quantidade dos dados percebidos. Desse modo, o comportamento ser? capaz de filtrar as informa??es enviadas pelos sensores dos agentes e construir uma lista de elementos, contendo somente as informa??es necess?rias ao agente, dependendo do contexto do comportamento em execu??o no momento. Com base no mecanismo de foco de aten??o humano, o agente tamb?m ? dotado de um estado afetivo. O estado afetivo do agente ? baseado nas teorias humanas da emo??o, humor e personalidade. Esse modelo atua como base para o mecanismo de ajuste cont?nuo do foco de aten??o do agente, tanto da parte qualitativa, como da parte quantitativa. Com esse mecanismo, o agente pode ajustar o seu foco de aten??o durante a execu??o do comportamento, de forma a tornar-se mais eficiente perante as mudan?as ocorridas no ambiente. A arquitetura proposta pode ser utilizada de forma bastante flex?vel. O foco de aten??o pode trabalhar tanto de forma fixa (onde nem o foco qualitativo e nem o quantitativo variam), quanto com diferentes combina??es entre a varia??o ou n?o dos focos qualitativo e quantitativo. A arquitetura foi desenvolvida sobre uma plataforma para agentes BDI, mas o seu projeto permite que seja usada em qualquer outro tipo de agente, pois as altera??es s?o feitas apenas no n?vel da percep??o do agente. Para avaliar a contribui??o do trabalho, uma s?rie extensa de experimentos foram realizados sobre uma simula??o baseada em agentes num cen?rio de inc?ndio. Nas simula??es, agentes utilizando a arquitetura proposta neste trabalho s?o comparados com agentes similares (com o mesmo modelo de racioc?nio), por?m capazes de processar todas as informa??es que lhes s?o enviadas pelo ambiente (agentes oniscientes). Intuitivamente, ? de se imaginar os agentes oniscientes seriam mais eficiente que os com filtros de percep??o, uma vez que eles podem processar todas as op??es poss?veis antes de tomar uma decis?o. Por?m, os experimentos mostram que os agentes com foco de aten??o podem ser t?o eficientes quanto os oniscientes, levando vantagem por?m na capacidade de resolverem o mesmo problema em um tempo significativamente menor. Os experimentos indicam, portanto, a efici?ncia da arquitetura proposta

Realizar a análise econômica de uma produção agropecuária não é algo trivial, seja pela enorme heterogeneidade entre cada unidade produtiva, seja porque utiliza muitos recursos naturais, alguns de difícil mensuração. Há diversos métodos disponíveis para o cálculo do custo de produção, que é o indicador chave para a análise da viabilidade de um empreendimento. O desafio é permitir que a projeção da atividade no horizonte produtivo seja a mais real e dinâmica possível. A simulação computacional é atualmente uma das mais poderosas ferramentas de análise disponível para o planejamento, projeto e controle de sistemas complexos, e vem sendo cada vez mais utilizada e difundida. Simular compreende a elaboração de um método de experimentação que, através da construção de modelos de um sistema real, procura descrever comportamentos, construir teorias ou hipóteses por meio do observado e predizer comportamentos futuros. O uso de modelos de simulação, que incorporem o risco e a probabilidade dentro produção animal, pode ser uma alternativa tanto técnica - auxiliando na tomada de decisão, gestão e planejamento pecuário, quanto científica - permitindo a avaliação de efeitos de resultados da pesquisa e identificação de limitantes que podem incentivar o desenvolvimento de pesquisas futuras. O modelo de simulação híbrido - baseado em simulação de eventos discretos e baseado em agentes, aqui proposto - visou identificar coeficientes zootécnicos e os critérios de manejo que mais impactam a produção de ovinos de corte. Esse modelo de simulação computacional híbrido possui caráter dinâmico e probabilístico, com eventos marcados no tempo (estação de monta, gestação, parição, desmame, engorda, abate, entre outras) e complexos o suficiente para que seus agentes sofram alterações tanto no tempo quanto em resposta a ocorrência ou não das variáveis ligadas a eles. Os resultados dos experimentos e dos cenários estudados revelaram que dentre os índices zootécnicos das matrizes, a ocorrência de aborto gera maior impacto na taxa de abate e financeiramente na margem líquida operacional. Contudo, analisando as variáveis tanto para matrizes como para cordeiros, a mortalidade neonatal, até os cinco dias de vida dos cordeiros, demonstrou ser o ponto fundamental para a lucratividade da atividade. A estabilização do rebanho foi mais afetada pela presença de matrizes adultas no plantel, que culminaram no aumento no número de cordeiros por matriz. Os resultados da análise dos fluxos de caixa de 30 anos, a uma taxa mínima de atratividade de 6,17% aa, permitiram constatar que iniciar a atividade com número muito reduzido de matrizes é o cenário menos interessantes, com taxa interna de retorno negativa para o período de análise. O estudo do fluxo de caixa permitiu atribuir a 200 matrizes como o tamanho de rebanho inicial mais interessante (TIR = 3,30% aa). Assim, o uso de simuladores híbridos baseados em simulação de eventos discretos e baseados em agentes, para estudos na pecuária nacional, apresentou-se como ferramenta com grande potencial de contribuição, no sentido de permitir conhecer os resultados possíveis das diferentes combinações tecnológicas disponíveis. O modelo ainda permite ser utilizado como ferramenta de estudo e análise para a cadeia produtiva, contribuindo na orientação aos cientistas, auxiliando no direcionamento de seus esforços no desenvolvimento de futuras pesquisas / Conduct an economic analysis of agricultural production is not trivial, either by its enormous heterogeneity between each production unit, or because it uses many natural resources, some of which are difficult to measure. There are several methods available for calculating the cost of production, which is the key indicator for assessing the feasibility of a project. The challenge is to allow the projection of activity in the productive horizon in the most real and dynamic form as possible. The computer simulation is currently one of the most powerful analysis tools available for planning, design and control of complex systems and is being increasingly used and disseminated. Simulate includes the development of a method of testing by building models of a real system, that seeks to describe behaviors, build theories or hypotheses through noted and predicted future behaviors. The use of simulation models that incorporate uncertainty and probability in animal production can be both an alternative technique - assisting in decision-making, management and livestock planning; as scientific - allowing the evaluation of the research results of effects and identification of limiting that may encourage the development of future research. The model of hybrid simulation - based on discrete event simulation and on agent-based, proposed here - aimed to identify factors husbandry and management criteria that most affect the production of meat sheep. The model of hybrid computer simulation have dynamic and probabilistic characteristics, with events scheduled in time (breeding season, pregnancy, parturition, weaning, fattening, slaughter, etc.) and enough complexity that its agents be adversely affected both in time and in response to the occurrence or not of variables linked to them. The results of the experiments and the scenarios studied showed that among the zootechnical indexes of the sheep, the occurrence of abortion generates a greater impact on the slaughter rate and financially in the net operating margin. However, analyzing the variables for both sheep and lambs, neonatal mortality, up to the lambs\' five days of life, proved to be the fundamental point for the profitability of the activity. The stabilization of the herd was more affected by the presence of adult sheep in the herd, which culminated increasing the number of lambs per sheep. The results of the analysis of the 30-year cash flows, at a minimum attractiveness rate of 6.17% per year, showed that starting the activity with a very small number of sheep was the least interesting scenario, with a negative internal rate of return for the analysis period. The study of the cash flow allowed to assign to 200 sheep as the most interesting initial herd size (IRR = 3.30% per year). Thus, the use of hybrid simulators, based on discrete event simulation and agent-based for studies in national livestock, is presented as a tool with great potential to contribute, to allow knowing the possible outcomes of different combinations of available technology. The model also allows to be used as a study tool and assessment of different technological combinations for the production chain, contributing to the guidance of scientists, assisting their efforts in the development of future research

In this research we present one of the first actual applications of Multi Agent-Based Simulation (MABS) to the field of software process simulation modelling (SPSM). Although a few previous applications were attempted, we explain in our literature review how these failed to take full advantage of the agency paradigm. Our research resulted in a model of the software development process that integrates performance, cognition and artefact quality, for which we built a common simulation framework to implement and run MABS and System Dynamics (SD) simulators upon the same integrated models. Although it is not possible to fully verify and validate implementations and models like ours, we used a number of verification and validation techniques to increase our confidence in these. Our work is also quite unique in that it compares MABS to SD in the context of SPSM. Here, we uncovered quite interesting properties of each simulation approach and how MABS, for example, is "risk averse" when compared to SD. In our discussion section we also present a number of lessons learned regarding the two simulation paradigms as well as various shortcomings in the models we adopted and our own.

Development of approaches for early detection of cancer requires a comprehensive understanding of the cellular functions that lead to cancer, as well as implementing strategies for population-wide early detection. Cell functions are supported by proteins that are produced by active or expressed genes. Identifying cancer biomarkers, i.e., the genes that are expressed and the corresponding proteins present only in a cancer state of the cell, can lead to its use for early detection of cancer and for developing drugs. There are approximately 30,000 genes in the human genome producing over 500,000 proteins, thereby posing significant analytical challenges in linking specific genes to proteins and subsequently to cancer. Along with developing diagnostic strategies, effective population-wide implementation of these strategies is dependent on the behavior and interaction between entities that comprise the cancer care system, like patients, physicians, and insurance policies. Hence, obtaining effective early cancer detection requires developing models for a systemic study of cancer care. In this research, we develop models to address some of the analytical challenges in three distinct areas of early cancer detection, namely proteomics, genomics, and disease progression. The specific research topics (and models) are: 1) identification and quantification of proteins for obtaining biomarkers for early cancer detection (mixed integer-nonlinear programming (MINLP) and wavelet-based model), 2) denoising of gene values for use in identification of biomarkers (wavelet-based multiresolution denoising algorithm), and 3) estimation of disease progression time of colorectal cancer for developing early cancer intervention strategies (computational probability model and an agent-based simulation).

<p>Millions of households around the world rely on intermittent water supply systems (IWS), where piped water supply is limited to specific hours during the day or on specific days during the week. Households relying on IWS systems, as their primary water source, often adapt to supply intermittency by installing in-house water storage and/or supplying water from non-piped sources (for instance, in the form of water tanker trucks). The piped water distribution network (WDN) in IWS systems is subject to short-term disruptions that cause dynamic behavior and interactions of the system’s stakeholders, including households, vendors of non-piped water, and the water utility. During disruptions of the WDN, households make decisions about obtaining water from different non-piped sources at different prices and wait times. These decisions, made by a large number of households, have an impact on the dynamics (in particular, the prices and availability) of the non-piped water market, which may in turn affect each household decision. Prior studies on the literature of the analysis of IWS systems focused on analyzing each of the components (namely the WDN, households, vendors of non-pied water, and the water utility) of the IWS in isolation, assuming static behavior of the other components.</p><p>The overreaching objective of this dissertation is to bridge the gap in knowledge and practice in analyzing the short-term dynamics within each component of the IWS system (focusing on the WDN and the households) and the interactions among all components of the IWS system when responding to physical disruptions of the WDN. First, a new framework for quantifying and analyzing the resilience of intermittent WDNs is presented. The framework incorporates the aspects of intermittent supply (including household storage and supply scheduling) into a hydraulic model that examines the network’s hydraulic performance and its topology to assess three resilience capacities: absorptive, adaptive, and restorative, against various types of physical disruptive events. The evaluation of the model, using the IWS network of a case study city in the Middle East, shows that household storage capacities, timing and length of the disruption, supply inequity, and the supply scheduling are significant factors in determining the resilience of the WDN, and the interactions of these variables result in different combinations of direct and post effects on households. The framework was also used to evaluate the impact of temporary modifications of the supply schedule on the network’s resilience. The results show that this short-term utility adaptive measure can significantly improve the resilience of the network. The proposed framework can assist utilities in the operation of the intermittent WDN under normal conditions and in the evaluation of the impact of different short- and long-term resilience enhancement strategies.</p><p>Next, based on empirical data from a survey of households in a city in the Middle East, the households’ decision-making in response to disruptions of the WDN was evaluated using econometric methods. A set of Binary Probit models were developed to model the decision of households regarding their risk attitudes toward running out of water (represented by the timing of their response actions), their willingness to pay for faster delivery of non-piped water, and their willingness to wait in-line to obtain water from a non-piped source. The results show how variables related to household characteristics, wealth, age and occupation of the household’s manager, knowledge of household manager about their households’ water situation, and prior experience with disruptions affect the households’ decisions when the piped-network is disrupted. The outputs of the econometric models can assist the city’s water managers in understanding the behavior of households that affect the demand and prices of different non-piped water sources.</p><p>The final component in this research integrates the two previous components into an Agent-Based Model (ABM) to evaluate the dynamics of the stakeholders’ interactions in response to disruptions of the WDN and to evaluate the impact of these interactions on the resilience of the whole system. The ABM examines the interactions between households and vendors of water tankers under utility’s policies that regulate the water tanker market while integrating variables that describe the response of the WDN to the disruption. The demonstration of the model using a representative subset of the IWS system in the case study city shows dynamic behavior patterns in: (a) the dynamics of households, and (b) the performance of the non-piped water market under different deterministic and stochastic scenarios of disruptions of the WDN.</p><p>The results of this research address many IWS systems in the Middle East and around the world that are characterized by household storage, as well as households’ dependency on the piped network as the main water supply. The models developed in this dissertation are expandable to adopt various systems’ configurations in terms of types and capacities of household storage, types and attributes of non-piped water sources, and attributes and preferences of households. The results of this doctoral research can assist water managers in cities in understanding the behavior of their IWS system (including the WDN and the system’s stakeholders), evaluating long-term resilience enhancement policies, and planning for short-term response to disruptions of the WDN.</p>