The standard Keynesian view predicts that equalization of the income distribution leads to an increase in aggregate consumption. We revisit the analysis carried out by the seminal empirical contributions which test such a hypothesis using modern econometric methods and the most comprehensive dataset existing on income distribution measures. Our results indicate that there is no substantive empirical evidence of an effect of income inequality on aggregate consumption. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

The standard Keynesian view predicts that equalization of the income distribution leads to an increase in aggregate consumption. We revisit the analysis carried out by the seminal empirical contributions which test such a hypothesis using modern econometric methods and the most comprehensive dataset existing on income distribution measures. Our results indicate that there is no empirical evidence of a negative effect of income inequality on aggregate consumption.

This thesis addresses a long-standing puzzle in empirical econometrics: Does the size distribution of income matter in the aggregate consumption function? Current opinion on whether distribution matters is divided. There is also a lack of consensus (among those who believe distribution effects exist) on the nature of such effects; that is, whether a decrease or an increase in income inequality is needed to stimulate aggregate demand. In this thesis, the previous or existing tests are challenged on the grounds that they do not properly take into account the causal link between the variability of the marginal, not the average, propensity to consume (with respect to the income level) and the existence of distribution effects. This particular link is taken care of, however, if one tests for the linearity (in income) of the micro relation underlying one's aggregate consumption function. The rejection of the linearity hypothesis will establish the existence of distribution effects. Ex post, if the nonlinear relation is such that the marginal propensity to consume declines with income, it also follows that an equalization in the income distribution produces greater aggregate consumption. The theoretical contribution of this thesis lies in the clarification of these issues. On the empirical side, this thesis cautions against the casual use of the term "distribution effects". In the current income-current expenditure framework of the Keynesians, it refers to "the effect of a redistribution of real disposable income" on aggregate real consumers' expenditure. In the Permanent Income Hypothesis framework, however, it could mean either "the effect of a redistribution of real disposable income" or "the effect of a redistribution of real permanent income" on aggregate real consumption. In this thesis, the distributions of real disposable income and real permanent income are alternatively assumed to follow the lognormal density, and two conclusions are empirically determined: I. The distribution of real disposable income matters in the current income-current expenditure framework---this result is statistically significant at a 10% level after the correction for serial correlation and simultaneity bias. In particular, the estimates indicate that the marginal propensity to consume declines with the level of real disposable income and, hence, a decrease in inequality would stimulate aggregate demand. II. The elasticity of consumption out of real permanent income is unity; therefore, the distribution of real permanent income does not matter in the Permanent Income Hypothesis framework---this result is statistically. significant at all conventional levels of significance both before and after the correction for serial correlation. Both findings are based on aggregative time-series data for Canada. The consumer unit in this thesis is an individual income-recipient, and the data period is 1947-1976. Maximum-likelihood procedures have been used in the estimation, with proper allowance for across-parameter constraints. In the event of correction for serial correlation, the autocorrelation coefficient is constrained to the open-interval (+1,-1). The results are also double-checked by examining many avenues that might affect the nature of the outcomes. Another contribution of this study is the compilation of data on the distribution of pre-tax personal income (in current dollars) in Canada under the lognormality hypothesis. The parameters of this distribution are determined using the minimum chi-square method. Estimates of the variance (of logarithms of income) parameter show a slight increase in income inequality over the period 1946 to 1976. The data on this parameter are used to approximate the variance of logarithms for the distribution of real disposable income (while establishing result I) and also the same for the distribution of real permanent income (while establishing the result II). / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

The theme of this dissertation is Ricardian equivalence, and its objective is to examine the effects of government debt on private consumption expenditures (Essay One), on interest rates (Essay Two), on the current account balance (Essay Three), and on individual intertemporal decision-making (Essay Four). The effects of government debt are important if debt is neutral (e.g., if “Ricardian equivalence” holds), then a stabilization program that is based on demand management policy to curtail fiscal deficits will not be operative. On the other hand, if debt is not neutral (or if Ricardian equivalence does not hold), then deficit finance may induce private consumption, boost interest rates, crowd out investment, and retard economic growth. Essay One contributes to the existing literature by taking into account the nature of liquidity constraints in a developing economy in an aggregate consumption function. Previous empirical tests on Ricardian equivalence have not considered the role of a dominant resource aspect of a country. Essay Two and Essay Three incorporate a dominant resource aspect in Indonesia by estimating the oil-macroeconomic relationship. Furthermore, Essay Three takes into account the role of capital inflows by including debt securities. Essay Four uses experimental economics methods to examine the role of distortionary taxes on Ricardian equivalence. There have been only a few studies that use an experimental approach to examine the effect of deficit spending on consumption expenditures, but these existing experimental studies ignore the role of distortionary taxes in affecting subjects’ consumption-saving decisions and focus on the presence of liquidity constraints, myopia, and uncertainty on future income. Essay Four contributes to the Ricardian equivalence literature by taking into account distortionary taxes in a Ricardian institution by levying taxes on savings in an intertemporal individual consumption-savings decision in laboratory experiments. By utilizing the aggregate consumption function and the Euler equation consumption function, Essay One shows that Indonesian consumers tend to behave in a non-Ricardian way. Public debt most likely will lead to crowding out of investment, and will retard capital accumulation and economic growth. The extent to which individuals perceive government expenditures as complements for their consumption is substantial. An increase in government expenditures will increase the marginal utility of private consumption and has an expansionary effect on aggregate demand. The complementarity between private consumption and government expenditures may be partly due to the allocation of government subsidies to basic goods and services such as electricity, fuel, fertilizer, health centers, and education. Liquidity constraints may cause consumption to have an excess sensitivity to income. The short-run and long-run aggregate consumption function estimates show that income affects consumption, indicating that consumers follow a “rule of thumb” of consuming their current income. A high ratio of public debt to gross domestic product (GDP) in Indonesia may also be the culprit of the excess sensitivity of private consumption to income. Due to low salaries in the formal sector, employees have been engaged in moonlighting activities, mostly in the form of self-employment (e.g., opening retail stores or services). This phenomenon may help to explain why private credit−which amounts to 29 percent of GDP−fails to explain consumption behavior. Most loans are made for investment rather than for consumption. Consumers’ behavior is insensitive to taxation, which perhaps is due to the fact that tax enactment is not explicitly revealed in Indonesia (e.g., price tags in the supermarket include the sales tax, and employees are only informed about their after-tax net wage instead of their gross wage). The share of tax collections to GDP averages only about 15 percent. There is still a large portion of the population who do not pay taxes or who pay far below what they should pay. The fiscal authority needs to focus more attention on alternative financing, i.e. taxation, whose system is essential to be enhanced. Essay Two shows that by excluding oil prices, deficits and debt significantly increase the real interest rate, thereby invalidating Ricardian equivalence. The evidence shows some preference for debt and deficit over government expenditures as determinants of interest rates. Inclusion of the oil price weakens the Neoclassical results, providing more support for the Ricardian paradigm. Deficits no longer increase interest rates, yet debt still significantly increases interest rates. This result reflects a loss of momentum for the Indonesian government two decades ago to decrease its dependency on debt. The government could have used the windfall oil revenue to pay off foreign debt; instead, the windfall was spent on import-intensive infrastructure development projects, in order to build domestic industry and to subsidize rice and petroleum products. The importance of oil prices in the interest rate estimation suggests that in modeling the Indonesian macroeconomy, the oil sector should be incorporated. The non-stationary nature of the stock of debt implies the failure of intertemporal budget balance to hold, indicating that the debt-financed deficit is unsustainable. Essay Three shows that around 80 percent of the estimation results provide support for the Neoclassical view, a result that is consistent with the twin deficits hypothesis. The long-run estimates indicate an almost one-to-one relationship between the government budget and the trade balance, while the short-run estimates show a smaller magnitude. When capital inflows are included, the twin deficits phenomenon is less pronounced in the short-run and disappears in the long-run. An increase in the oil price statistically and significantly improves the trade balance in the short-run and in the long-run. Essay Four shows that subjects fully anticipate an increase in future taxation by increasing the amount bequeathed in one-to-one correspondence to the increase in debt. Even under a Ricardian institution, the distorting nature of taxes on savings alters subjects’ consumption-savings decisions. The equality of the change in bequests and the change in deficit spending is not attained under the savings taxes treatment, invalidating Ricardian equivalence. In line with the results of Essays One, Two, and Three, which suggest the vital need to enhance the taxation system, the results of Essay Four entail the importance of taxes on interest income in Indonesia.

The dissertation consists of four self-contained essays on consumption. Essays 1 and 2 consider different measures of aggregate consumption, and Essays 3 and 4 consider how the distributions of income and wealth affect consumption from a macro and micro perspective, respectively. Essay 1 considers the empirical practice of seemingly interchangeable use of two measures of consumption; total consumption expenditure and consumption expenditure on nondurable goods and services. Using data from Sweden and the US in an error correction model, it is shown that consumption functions based on the two measures exhibit significant differences in several aspects of econometric modelling. Essay 2, coauthored with Thomas Holgersson, considers derivation of a univariate and a multivariate version of a test for asymmetry, based on the third central moment. The logic behind the test is that the dependent variable should correspond to the specification of the econometric model; symmetric with linear models and asymmetric with non-linear models. The main result in the empirical application of the test is that orthodox theory seems to be supported for consumption of both nondurable and durable consumption. The consumption of durables shows little deviation from symmetry in the four-country sample, while the consumption of nondurables is shown to be asymmetric in two out of four cases, the UK and the US. Essay 3 departs from the observation that introducing income uncertainty makes the consumption function concave, implying that the distributions of wealth and income are omitted variables in aggregate Euler equations. This implication is tested through estimation of the distributions over time and augmentation of consumption functions, using Swedish data for 1963-2000. The results show that only the dispersion of wealth is significant, the explanation of which is found in the marked changes of the group of households with negative wealth; a group that according to a concave consumption function has the highest marginal propensity to consume. Essay 4 attempts to empirically specify the nature of the alleged concavity of the consumption function. Using grouped household level Swedish data for 1999-2001, it is shown that the marginal propensity to consume out of current resources, i.e. current income and net wealth, is strictly decreasing in current resources and net wealth, but approximately constant in income. Also, an empirical reciprocal to the stylized theoretical consumption function is estimated, and shown to bear a close resemblance to the theoretical version.

Recent episodes of financial instability have motivated researchers as well as policy makers to intensify research on financial stability. This thesis contributes to current research and policy discussion by elaborating and empirically testing methodologies, which can be used to measure financial sector vulnerabilities and identify potential risks for financial stability. It further focuses on the link between real and the financial sector as well as possible implications of household financial distress on the aggregate economy. Together with the proposed framework we provide the survey of the current literature on these topics as well as the empirical results. We argue in favour of stress testing methodologies covering the key risks on banks' balance sheets. These frameworks can also be used for emerging markets where data availability is typically limited. It is shown that due to high volatility of credit growth in emerging economies, the static approach assuming constant balance sheet items is not very appropriate. Furthermore, the feedback effect between the financial sector and the real economy might play an important role under certain assumptions, and therefore it should be taken into account by policy makers. This effect can also emerge in the real sector itself as potential instability can...