This appendix contains supplementary material to the paper "A sectoral net lending perspective on Europe". It includes information on the data provenance and processing, the statistical and algebraic framework applied in the study as well as supplementary figures for all countries in the sample. Moreover, it provides robustness checks for the cyclicality analysis of sectoral net lending flows. / Series: Ecological Economic Papers

This dissertation consists of five separate essays (and a short introductory chapter) that analyze the effects of debt policy on private consumption. Essay 1: Government Debt and Private Consumption: Theory and Evidence. The Ricardian equivalence theorem has been widely debated since (at least) the seventies. The theorem states that households should not change their consumption path in response to changed timing of taxes, given the path of government consumption. In this essay, theoretical models giving rise to the equivalence result as well as models predicting deviations from debt neutrality are presented. In general, the Ricardian models are based on unrealistic assumptions, such as infinite horizons, perfect capital markets and lump-sum taxes. The issue of Ricardian equivalence is thus perhaps better viewed as a question concerning to what extent the equivalence hypothesis is a reasonable approximation of the real world. This could only be established by empirical studies. To formulate a test of Ricardian equivalence, it is however vital to extend the standard analysis in deterministic models to stochastic models. In a stochastic model we need to incorporate the fact that agents have to make predictions about future levels of government consumption, and that public debt might be a useful predictor for that purpose. It is therefore necessary that an empirical study distinguishes between debt as a potential source of net wealth, which is the concern of the equivalence proposition, and debt's role as a signal of future levels of government consumption, which is due to the stochastic nature of the world. It is argued that there are few empirical studies that make this distinction, and in case the distinction is made, the evidence is in favor of the Ricardian equivalence proposition, namely that public debt is not net wealth to households. Changing the timing of taxes will therefore not change private consumption. In other words, although the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis is burdened with unrealistic assumptions, it seems (historically) to provide a reasonable approximation of actual data. Essay 2: An Investigation of Ricardian Equivalence in a Common Trends Model. A common trends model for gross national income, private consumption, government consumption and net taxes is estimated on US data. The system has two cointegrating vectors and thus two common stochastic trends, interpreted as a technology trend and a public sector trend. The two temporary shocks are interpreted as a private demand and government financing shock, respectively. Theoretical models suggest that the two cointegrating vectors could be due to the private and public sectors' intertemporal budget constraints. We find two co-integrating vectors, as predicted by no-Ponzi game constraints on the sectors. However, a stronger version of the no-Ponzi game constraint is a solvency condition, which implies particular co-integrating vectors. These cointegration vectors are both rejected for the sample period, indicating that the public sector will not be able to repay its debt if the current policy is maintained. However, the private sector is at the same time accumulating wealth, which is consistent with predictions from a Ricardian model. Further, the equivalence theorem predicts that private consumption should be unaffected by financing shocks. Data, however, indicate that there is a significant short run effect on both income and private consumption from the financing shock, but the effect indicates that increasing taxes is accompanied by increasing private consumption, contrary to both standard Ricardian and Keynesian models. In the theoretical world, this type of pattern could be generated in models with risk averse individuals and uncertainty about future taxes. Essay 3: Risky Taxes, Budget Balance Preserving Spreads and Precautionary Savings. This essay analyzes the effects on consumption from changes in the riskiness of taxes. It starts by reinterpreting the Sandmo [1970] paper on general capital income risk to the case of risky capital taxation. In his framework the concept of a mean preserving spread (MPS) is used for the risk analysis. In connection with risky taxes it is however possible to explicitly connect the tax risk with the government's budget constraint. In this essay the concept of a budget balance preserving spread (BBPS) is developed and used for the analysis of stochastic taxes. The essay is concluded with a comparison of the effects that a MPS and a BBPS has on consumption decisions. It is shown that the comparative statics results for a BBPS could be different from the results obtained with a MPS. Essay 4: Budget Deficits, Tax Risk and Consumption. This essay analyzes the effects of budget deficits on consumption when individual taxes are stochastic. It is shown that the co-movements between budget deficits and private consumption will depend on how risk averse individuals are. In the case of lump-sum taxes, it is sufficient to assume that individuals have a precautionary savings motive to obtain the result that consumption today will decrease with increased disposable income today. Furthermore, if we use a time separable iso-elastic utility funcition, the standard analysis of capital income risk predicts (precautionary) savings to increase with increased risk if the coefficient of relative risk aversion is greater than one. This is no longer sufficient when the risk is due to uncertain capital income taxes. In general, the coefficient must be greater than one to obtain precautionary savings in response to the greater risk implied by a budget deficit. The results in the paper are consistent with Ricardian equivalence only for some specific utility function, but not in general. However, in the same way, the results are consistent with standard Keynesian models that display a positive relation between debt and private consumption only for certain utility functions, and could equally well generate the opposite result for individuals that are enough risk averse or prudent, without changing the expected value of government consumption. In other words, if future taxes are uncertain, increased disposable income in the present period will decrease present consumption, if households are prudent enough. Essay 5: Budget Deficits, Stochastic Population Size and Consumption. This paper analyzes the effects on present consumption of budget deficits under different assumptions regarding demographics. In the first part, birth and death rates are deterministic, and in the second part, birth rates are assumed to be stochastic. In the case of a deterministic population size, an increase in public debt raises present consumption, if the (deterministic) birth rate is greater than zero, while with a zero birth rate we obtain debt neutrality. This is consistent with the results in Blanchard [1985] and Buiter [1988]. However, for the case of stochastic birth rates, it is shown that we can obtain the result that present consumption will decrease when public debt is increased, both when we have a zero expected birth rate, and when the expected population size is assumed to be constant, so that the expected birth rate is positive and equal to the death rate. The explanation is that with an uncertain birth rate, the future tax base is uncertain, which makes per capita taxes uncertain in the future. Shifting taxes to the future thus implies greater uncertainty about future net income, and induces precautionary savings. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.

The paper investigates net lending and net borrowing flows of the institutional sectors in Europe since the introduction of the Euro in 1999. Applying a simple statistical apparatus, this paper is novel in describing the sectoral behavior leading up to and during the crisis. We find that (1) many countries of the Northern group were characterized by low public deficits or even budget surpluses, current account surpluses and a private sector in a net lending position. In countries of the Southern periphery, in the Anglo-Saxon countries as well as in many Eastern European Economies private sector net borrowing coincided with a budget deficit and substantial current account deficits. (2) With the onset of the crisis private net lending soared in all countries while all governments incurred deficits, consistent with the notion of a balance sheet recession. (3) Private net lending is pro-cyclical, reinforcing the economic downturn, while public net lending is countercyclical in all countries. (4) Household net lending tends to lead the business cycle, while corporate net lending tends to lag it especially in the Northern group. (5) Prominent concepts asserting causal relationships in sectoral net lending, such as Ricardian equivalence and the twin deficit hypothesis are not supported by the data. (authors' abstract) / Series: Ecological Economic Papers

This thesis contains four essays, which studies the macroeconomic effects of fiscal and monetary policy quantitatively. The first essay investigates whether Swedish postwar business cycles have been generated by domestic or foreign shocks and finds that they are about equally important. In the second essay, the effects of government budget deficits on interest rates in Sweden are studied in a small open economy framework. The empirical results, which have high power due to very large swings in deficits and interest rates, provide support that larger deficits produce higher interest rates and thus give support against the ricardian view. The third essay seeks to identify optimal social insurance and redistribution levels in Sweden and the U.S. with respect to temporary and permanent idiosyncratic productivity risks. The results indicate that Sweden should reduce the social security level while the U.S. should approximately maintain the current level. In the last essay, the small sample properties of a well-known statistical test for the Lucas critique - the super exogeneity test - is studied in a general equilibrium environment. The results indicate that the super exogeneity test do not have sufficient power in small samples. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.

The theme of this dissertation is Ricardian equivalence, and its objective is to examine the effects of government debt on private consumption expenditures (Essay One), on interest rates (Essay Two), on the current account balance (Essay Three), and on individual intertemporal decision-making (Essay Four). The effects of government debt are important if debt is neutral (e.g., if “Ricardian equivalence” holds), then a stabilization program that is based on demand management policy to curtail fiscal deficits will not be operative. On the other hand, if debt is not neutral (or if Ricardian equivalence does not hold), then deficit finance may induce private consumption, boost interest rates, crowd out investment, and retard economic growth. Essay One contributes to the existing literature by taking into account the nature of liquidity constraints in a developing economy in an aggregate consumption function. Previous empirical tests on Ricardian equivalence have not considered the role of a dominant resource aspect of a country. Essay Two and Essay Three incorporate a dominant resource aspect in Indonesia by estimating the oil-macroeconomic relationship. Furthermore, Essay Three takes into account the role of capital inflows by including debt securities. Essay Four uses experimental economics methods to examine the role of distortionary taxes on Ricardian equivalence. There have been only a few studies that use an experimental approach to examine the effect of deficit spending on consumption expenditures, but these existing experimental studies ignore the role of distortionary taxes in affecting subjects’ consumption-saving decisions and focus on the presence of liquidity constraints, myopia, and uncertainty on future income. Essay Four contributes to the Ricardian equivalence literature by taking into account distortionary taxes in a Ricardian institution by levying taxes on savings in an intertemporal individual consumption-savings decision in laboratory experiments. By utilizing the aggregate consumption function and the Euler equation consumption function, Essay One shows that Indonesian consumers tend to behave in a non-Ricardian way. Public debt most likely will lead to crowding out of investment, and will retard capital accumulation and economic growth. The extent to which individuals perceive government expenditures as complements for their consumption is substantial. An increase in government expenditures will increase the marginal utility of private consumption and has an expansionary effect on aggregate demand. The complementarity between private consumption and government expenditures may be partly due to the allocation of government subsidies to basic goods and services such as electricity, fuel, fertilizer, health centers, and education. Liquidity constraints may cause consumption to have an excess sensitivity to income. The short-run and long-run aggregate consumption function estimates show that income affects consumption, indicating that consumers follow a “rule of thumb” of consuming their current income. A high ratio of public debt to gross domestic product (GDP) in Indonesia may also be the culprit of the excess sensitivity of private consumption to income. Due to low salaries in the formal sector, employees have been engaged in moonlighting activities, mostly in the form of self-employment (e.g., opening retail stores or services). This phenomenon may help to explain why private credit−which amounts to 29 percent of GDP−fails to explain consumption behavior. Most loans are made for investment rather than for consumption. Consumers’ behavior is insensitive to taxation, which perhaps is due to the fact that tax enactment is not explicitly revealed in Indonesia (e.g., price tags in the supermarket include the sales tax, and employees are only informed about their after-tax net wage instead of their gross wage). The share of tax collections to GDP averages only about 15 percent. There is still a large portion of the population who do not pay taxes or who pay far below what they should pay. The fiscal authority needs to focus more attention on alternative financing, i.e. taxation, whose system is essential to be enhanced. Essay Two shows that by excluding oil prices, deficits and debt significantly increase the real interest rate, thereby invalidating Ricardian equivalence. The evidence shows some preference for debt and deficit over government expenditures as determinants of interest rates. Inclusion of the oil price weakens the Neoclassical results, providing more support for the Ricardian paradigm. Deficits no longer increase interest rates, yet debt still significantly increases interest rates. This result reflects a loss of momentum for the Indonesian government two decades ago to decrease its dependency on debt. The government could have used the windfall oil revenue to pay off foreign debt; instead, the windfall was spent on import-intensive infrastructure development projects, in order to build domestic industry and to subsidize rice and petroleum products. The importance of oil prices in the interest rate estimation suggests that in modeling the Indonesian macroeconomy, the oil sector should be incorporated. The non-stationary nature of the stock of debt implies the failure of intertemporal budget balance to hold, indicating that the debt-financed deficit is unsustainable. Essay Three shows that around 80 percent of the estimation results provide support for the Neoclassical view, a result that is consistent with the twin deficits hypothesis. The long-run estimates indicate an almost one-to-one relationship between the government budget and the trade balance, while the short-run estimates show a smaller magnitude. When capital inflows are included, the twin deficits phenomenon is less pronounced in the short-run and disappears in the long-run. An increase in the oil price statistically and significantly improves the trade balance in the short-run and in the long-run. Essay Four shows that subjects fully anticipate an increase in future taxation by increasing the amount bequeathed in one-to-one correspondence to the increase in debt. Even under a Ricardian institution, the distorting nature of taxes on savings alters subjects’ consumption-savings decisions. The equality of the change in bequests and the change in deficit spending is not attained under the savings taxes treatment, invalidating Ricardian equivalence. In line with the results of Essays One, Two, and Three, which suggest the vital need to enhance the taxation system, the results of Essay Four entail the importance of taxes on interest income in Indonesia.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Javier Ignacio Toro Gonzalez.pdf: 864358 bytes, checksum: d7676ee8793227ea2f982b836f3be573 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-04-30 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This paper analyzes the assumption and refinancing agreement of the internal public debt held by the Municipality of Sao Paulo with the brazilian Federal Government as signed in May 2000. The first chapter presents the theoretical basis of the economic policy, especially the fiscal policy, adopted by Brazil in the 1990 s and also presents the context that led to the refinancing agreement and to the Law of Fiscal Responsibility. In the second chapter the strategic role of the city of Sao Paulo in Brazil s national economy is discussed as well as the behavior of its public finances since 1995. In the third and final chapter the terms and conditions of the agreement itself as well as its sustainability are analyzed. The results point to the unsustainability of the agreement under the two approaches adopted: the Accounting and the Present Value. It is evident that the agreement - which forbids new indebtedness - harms the ability of the Municipality of Sao Paulo to perform as an entrepreneur of new projects in infrastructure, essential for a modern metropolis like Sao Paulo to meet the challenges it faces, and preventing it from fully exercising its role as a Global City in the greater context of the national Brazilian economy / Esta dissertação analisa o acordo de assunção e refinanciamento da dívida pública interna do Município de São Paulo junto ao Governo Federal assinado em maio de 2000. O primeiro capítulo apresenta a fundamentação teórica da política econômica, em especial da política fiscal, adotada no Brasil na década de 1990 e também o contexto interno que deu origem ao acordo de refinanciamento da dívida interna dos governos subnacionais e à Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal. No segundo capítulo discute-se o papel estratégico da cidade de São Paulo para a economia brasileira e o comportamento das finanças do Município desde 1995. O terceiro e último capítulo, apresenta a análise dos termos e condições do acordo e da sua sustentabilidade. Os resultados apontam para a insustentabilidade do acordo nas duas abordagens adotadas: a Contábil e do Valor Presente. Fica evidente que o acordo, ao proibir novos endividamentos, prejudica o desempenho do Município como empreendedor de novos projetos de infra-estrutura, essenciais para fazer frente aos desafios de uma metrópole moderna como São Paulo, impedindo-a de exercer plenamente o papel de Cidade Global dentro da economia brasileira

Cette thèse est une collection de trois articles en macroéconomie et finances publiques. Elle développe des modèles d'Equilibre Général Dynamique et Stochastique pour analyser les implications macroéconomiques des politiques d'imposition des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Le premier chapitre analyse les mécanismes de transmission à l'économie, des effets d'un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Dans une économie constituée d'un gouvernement, d'une firme représentative et d'un ménage représentatif, j'élabore un théorème de l'équivalence ricardienne avec l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Plus particulièrement, j'établis que si les marchés financiers sont parfaits, un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises qui ne change pas la valeur présente de l'impôt total auquel l'entreprise est assujettie sur toute sa durée de vie n'a aucun effet réel sur l'économie si l'état utilise un impôt forfaitaire. Ensuite, en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits, je montre qu'une une baisse temporaire de l'impôt forfaitaire sur le profit des entreprises stimule l'investissement parce qu'il réduit temporairement le coût marginal de l'investissement. Enfin, mes résultats indiquent que si l'impôt est proportionnel au profit des entreprises, l'anticipation de taxes élevées dans le futur réduit le rendement espéré de l'investissement et atténue la stimulation de l'investissement engendrée par la réduction d'impôt. Le deuxième chapitre est écrit en collaboration avec Rui Castro. Dans cet article, nous avons quantifié les effets sur les décisions individuelles d'investis-sement et de production des entreprises ainsi que sur les agrégats macroéconomiques, d'une baisse temporaire de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Dans un modèle où les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs de productivité idiosyncratiques, nous avons d'abord établi que le rationnement de crédit affecte plus les petites (jeunes) entreprises que les grandes entreprises. Pour des entreprises de même taille, les entreprises les plus productives sont celles qui souffrent le plus du manque de liquidité résultant des imperfections du marché financier. Ensuite, nous montré que pour une baisse de 1 dollar du revenu de l'impôt, l'investissement et la production augmentent respectivement de 26 et 3,5 centimes. L'effet cumulatif indique une augmentation de l'investissement et de la production agrégés respectivement de 4,6 et 7,2 centimes. Au niveau individuel, nos résultats indiquent que la politique stimule l'investissement des petites entreprises, initialement en manque de liquidité, alors qu'elle réduit l'investissement des grandes entreprises, initialement non contraintes. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à l'analyse des effets de la réforme de l'imposition des revenus d'entreprise proposée par le Trésor américain en 1992. La proposition de réforme recommande l'élimination des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital et l'imposition d'une seule taxe sur le revenu des entreprises. Pour ce faire, j'ai eu recours à un modèle dynamique stochastique d'équilibre général avec marchés financiers imparfaits dans lequel les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs idiosyncratiques de productivité. Les résultats indiquent que l'abolition des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital réduisent les distorsions dans les choix d'investissement des entreprises, stimule l'investissement et entraîne une meilleure allocation du capital. Mais pour être financièrement soutenable, la réforme nécessite un relèvement du taux de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises de 34\% à 42\%. Cette hausse du taux d'imposition décourage l'accumulation du capital. En somme, la réforme engendre une baisse de l'accumulation du capital et de la production respectivement de 8\% et 1\%. Néanmoins, elle améliore l'allocation du capital de 20\%, engendrant des gains de productivité de 1.41\% et une modeste augmentation du bien être des consommateurs. / This thesis is a collection of three papers in macroeconomics and public finance. It develops Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models with a special focus on financial frictions to analyze the effects of changes in corporate tax policy on firm level and macroeconomic aggregates. Chapter 1 develops a dynamic general equilibrium model with a representative firm to assess the short-run effects of changes in the timing of corporate profit taxes. First, it extends the Ricardian equivalence result to an environment with production and establishes that a temporary corporate profit tax cut financed by future tax-increase has no real effect when the tax is lump sum and capital markets are perfect. Second, I assess how strong the ricardian forces are in the presence of financing frictions. I find that when equity issuance is costly, and when the firm faces a lower bound on dividend payments, a temporary tax cut reduces temporary the marginal cost of investment and implies positive marginal propensity of investment. Third, I analyze how do the intertemporal substitution effects of tax cuts interact with the stimulative effects when tax is not lump-sum. The results show that when tax is proportional to corporate profit, the expectations of high future tax rates reduce the expected marginal return on investment and mitigate the stimulative effects of tax cuts. The net investment response depends on the relative strength of each effect. Chapter 2 is co-authored with Rui Castro. In this paper, we quantify how effective temporary corporate tax cuts are in stimulating investment and output via relaxation of financing frictions. In fact, policymakers often rely on temporary corporate tax cuts in order to provide incentives for business investment in recession times. A common motivation is that such policies help relax financing frictions, which might bind more during recessions. We assess whether this mechanism is effective. In an industry equilibrium model where some firms are financially constrained, marginal propensities to invest are high. We consider a transitory corporate tax cut, funded by public debt. By increasing current cash flows, corporate tax cuts are effective at stimulating current investment. On impact, aggregate investment increases by 26 cents per dollar of tax stimulus, and aggregate output by 3.5 cents. The stimulative output effects are long-lived, extending past the period the policy is reversed, leading to a cumulative effect multiplier on output of 7.2 cents. A major factor preventing larger effects is that this policy tends to significantly crowd out investment among the larger, unconstrained firms. Chapter 3 studies the effects of the 1992's U.S. Treasury Department proposal of a Comprehensive Business Income Tax (CBIT) reform. According to the U.S. tax code, dividend and capital gain are taxed at the firm level and further taxed when distributed to shareholders. This double taxation may reduce the overall return on investment and induce inefficient capital allocation. Therefore, tax reforms have been at the center of numerous debates among economists and policymakers. As part of this debate, the U.S. Department of Treasury proposed in 1992 to abolish dividend and capital gain taxes, and to use a Comprehensive Business Income Tax (CBIT) to levy tax on corporate income. In this paper, I use an industry equilibrium model where firms are subject to financing frictions, and idiosyncratic productivity and entry/exit shocks to assess the long run effects of the CBIT. I find that the elimination of the capital gain and dividend taxes is not self financing. More precisely, the corporate profit tax rate should be increased from 34\% to 42\% to keep the reform revenue-neutral. Overall, the results show that the CBIT reform reduces capital accumulation and output by 8\% and 1\%, respectively. However, it improves capital allocation by 20\%, resulting in an increase in aggregate productivity by 1.41\% and in a modest welfare gain.

思及當前捉襟見肘的財政窘境，無可避免地，債台高築的臺灣實陷入飲鴆止渴般以債養債之無限迴圈中，導致政府政策效能不彰、社會福利運作生弊亦無可厚非；於『公共債務法』之財政規範下，臺灣業已瀕臨法定舉債門檻，故不論是對短期政府支出之排擠、扭曲性稅率之稽徵抑或對長期經濟成長的斲傷，皆是身為中華民國國民真正惶悚不安之所在。 職是之故，本研究係採用一納入政府財政部門及貨幣當局之擴充『實質景氣循環模型』，藉以Sidrauski（1967）所提出的貨幣效用函數為出發點，將實質餘額引進理論模型，並透過計量操作捕捉實證期間起於西元1971年第一季迄至2007年第四季之政府政策函數，過程中，我們不難發現政府購買性支出及稅率皆存在相當的持續性，且對政府未償公債餘額之高低作出某種程度的反應。亦即，若政府實施公債融通政策，俾使期初公債餘額較高之際，則本期甚或往後各期的政府支出將遭受抑制和排擠，尤有甚者，政府勢必擬以提高未來稅率以茲挹注該債務之還本付息所造成的財政缺口；是以，本研究著眼於引進公債餘額對政府支出及稅率存在反饋作用下，財政政策與貨幣政策之總體效果及各總體變數之動態調整過程的風貌。即便公債發行或賒借為政府提供一財務週轉工具以裨益財政政策保有更靈活之彈性，然據模型所產生的結果顯示，就長期而論，政府必須維持一穩定之未償公債餘額，即公債水準具備『均數復歸』性質，而該財政目標係透過削減未來政府支出、調整扭曲性稅率及鑄幣稅融通政策方得以達成預算平衡，準此，該設定將造成公債融通之減稅政策對經濟體系具有實質效果，『公債融通』管道亦『非中立性政策』，從而傳統『李嘉圖等值定理』於本模型中無法成立。 就政策面層次而言，本研究試圖放寬『反饋法則』與政策係數之設定，以檢視透過不同程度之政府支出、稅率甚至貨幣供給途徑的改變來平衡因增加公債發行所造成的財政赤字，對經濟體系之長短期效果有何迥異處；是文亦藉由衝擊反應函數分別探討於政府支出增加、減稅措施及貨幣擴張之下，政策的傳遞機制與各總體變數之動態性質，顯然地，就高債務比率前提下，當政府戮力於刺激景氣而欲積極實施立竿見影的總體經濟政策之際，卻常因狃於急效而欲速不達，非但政策效果有限，亦可能使體系落入更為不景氣的田地，從而，財政惡化不啻為經濟危機的導火線也就不言而喻。再者，貨幣政策對體系之實質變數具有一定程度的作用，是故，本模型於短期內無法一窺『貨幣中立性』之堂奧，唯長期始得以復見。總括言之，政府亟須奉『健全財政』為圭臬，擬定政策時更得戒慎恐懼，並適切權衡利弊得失，以茲裨益有更具信心的經濟表現。 此外，本研究亦透過『效準』實驗以評估模型『配適度』之良窳，即便於反覆疊代法下，該模擬表現係瑕瑜互見而不盡完美，卻也大抵符合景氣循環之『典型化特徵』；然就實質景氣循環模型所為人詬病之勞動市場一隅而論，引進公債之反饋法則下的財政政策操作，無疑地改善了傳統工時與工資率動輒高度正相關之本質，從而獲致相對較低之理論相關係數，亦朝實證資料所呈現工時與工資率存在幾近零相關甚或低度負相關之表徵更邁進一大步。 / With current financial difficulties beyond government capability, it is inevitable that the already deep-in-debt Taiwan opted for momentary relief by paying debt through debt financing and ended up in an infinite loop, causing spiral-down performances in government policies and faulty operations of social welfare instruments. Taiwan has been on the verge of reaching the statutory upper limit of debt financing according to “The Public Debt Act” regulations and all nationals are becoming anxious about such impacts as crowding out of short-run government spending, levying of distorting taxes, and damages on long-run economic growth. To better understand the debt’s impacts, this research uses the “Real Business Cycle Model” extended by taking government treasury agency and monetary institution into account. Starting with Money In Utility Function (MIUF) as proposed by Sidrauski (1967) to introduce real money balance into the theoretical model and, in the process of econometric manipulation, to detect empirical governmental policy functions in the period between the first quarter, 1971 and the fourth quarter, 2007, it is not hard to discover that there are considerable persistence in both government purchases and tax rates, with manifestation of certain degree of responses to the total amount of outstanding bonds the government has yet to pay. In other words, a governmental bond financing policy designed to render high initial bonds outstanding tends to cause suppression and crowding out of government spending in current and even later periods. Furthermore, the government is bound to plan on raising taxes in the future in order to cut financial deficit gap caused by paying back the principles and interests of the debt. Therefore, this study focuses on presenting the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policies and monetary policies, as well as the dynamic adjustment processes of macroeconomic variables based on the impact of feedback effect of bonds outstanding on government spending and tax rates. Even thought public bonds issuance or debt financing serves as a governmental fiscal instrument for financial turnover to ensure flexibility of fiscal policies, our model shows that the government should, from a long-run perspective, maintain a stable amount of bonds outstanding. Put in a different way, the level of bonds outstanding shows “mean-reverting” characteristics which rely on future government spending cut, distorting tax adjustment and seigniorage financing policy to achieve balance of budget. As a result, such setup would cause the bond-financing backed tax deduction policies to create practical effects on economies and, as the bond financing instruments are “Non-Neutrality” policies, would render the “Ricardian Equivalence Theorem” invalid in our model. In the policy aspect, this study tries to relax both “feedback rules” and setup of policy parameters for investigating the differences between long-run and short-run effects on the economy by different degrees of changes in government spending, tax rates and even money supply channels which are used to balance the fiscal deficit caused by increased bond issuance. This article also studies, through the impulse response function, the policy propagation mechanism and the dynamics of key macroeconomic variables under the situation of government spending increase, tax deduction and monetary expansion. It is obvious that the government, in the case of high debt ratios and when making all endeavors to spur economy by implementing macroeconomic policies aimed for instant results, is accustomed to seeking quick fixes only to achieve very limited effects, sometimes even to drive the economy into further recession. It is therefore evident that fiscal degradation could lead to economic disaster. Moreover, as the monetary policies have certain degrees of influence on real variables of the economy, this model will not be able to clearly analyze the “neutrality of money” in such a short period of time. The effect will only reveal in the long run. In summary, the government should keep “sound finance” as the highest guiding principle and be extremely cautious in formulating policies in order to weigh all pros and cons discreetly, thus help to achieve a benefiting economic performance that generates more confidence. Furthermore, this study assesses “goodness of fit” of the model through a “calibration” experiment. Although the simulation results show, under recursive method, intermingled good and poor occasions that are beyond satisfaction, they generally agree with the “typical characteristics” of business cycles. However, in the aspect of long-criticized labor market of the real business cycle model, the fiscal policy operation under feedback rules with introduction of public debts for sure has greatly improved on the conventional intrinsic property of high correlation between labor hours and real wage rates, by delivering a relatively low theoretical correlation coefficient, which is a big step towards the empirical results of almost zero or even weakly negative correlation between labor hours and real wage rates.