本文研究目的是在動態隨機一般均衡模型當中，討論政府公債佔國內生產毛額的最適比率。本文建立一封閉經濟體系，討論政府公債佔國內生產毛額的比率改變時，對主要的經濟變數有何影響。不同於先前的研究，我們假設在極大化福利的前提下，找尋最適的政府公債佔國內生產毛額比率。靜止均衡的分析發現，政府公債佔國內生產毛額的比率與消費呈現正向變動的關係，與產出和勞動有著負向變動的關係。除此之外，當政府公債佔國內生產毛額的比率增加時，福利水準會越來越低，因此，最適的公債比率為零。 / The objective of this paper is to investigate the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP by using a micro-based dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. In this paper, the model that we build is a closed economy. We discuss the effect of the optimal public debt to GDP ratio on primary variables. Different from previous research, we look for the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP that will maximize welfare. In the steady state analysis, we find that the ratio of public debt to GDP has the positive effect on consumption and negative effect on output and labor. Furthermore, the welfare level is lowered with the rise in the debt ratios to GDP. Thus, the optimal debt ratio should be 0.

本文主旨在了解在台灣與民生息息相關的銀行、郵局的存放款利率，是有什麼樣程度的受到債券市場的影響。本文使用Eviews研究2000/01~2015/05公債殖利率、央行利率對於其他變數是否有顯著相關。首先檢驗資料是否為定態後，考量差分後資料無經濟意義，便以變動率取代原始資料，以最小平方法進行單、多因子迴歸。結果顯示從理論或實證都能證明中央銀行透過貨幣政策、公開市場操作來影響利率，從本文研究可看出其影響力更甚於十年期公債殖利率。配合相關係數來看，可推測央行的操作不僅直接的影響著銀行及郵局的利率，也透過這些利率再去影響其他利率，使得利率間互相影響使效果增強，唯一例外是十年期公債殖利率在十五年期房貸利率上有更好的影響以及解釋力。 / The main topic of the thesis is to understand whether the bond market in Taiwan has influence on the bank saving rates and lending rates. Considering the data will lose its economics meaning after the first order difference, we use churn rate instead of the original data to construct single and multi-factor regression using. The result comes out that both theories and the paper’s result can show that the central bank has strong power over the rates. The central bank interest rate is a more significant explanatory variable than the ten-year bond yield and has positive impact on other dependent variables. The only exception is that the ten-year bond yield has the best explanatory power over the 15-year mortgage rates than other variables.

本文以日本政府公債期貨為研究標的，針對相同商品於兩地上市時手續費及交易機制不同所形成的交易成本，對於套利過程的影響進行研究。主要透過門檻共整合與門檻誤差修正模型，計算出一套利門檻，推導出真正可套利區間，俾使套利活動足以落實。 門檻共整合實證結果發現TSE—SIMEX五分鐘資料顯著支持我們原先預期加入門檻後其上下兩個區間回復均衡的力量較強，而中間區域則因交易成本之存在，無法進行套利活動促使其價格回復均衡狀態，其因果關係檢定，得到下區間雙向影響與上中區間TSE價格領先SIMEX的結論。 但就兩兩交易所的日資料而言，SIMEX—LIFFE未存有明顯的門檻效果，而TSE—SIMEX與TSE—LIFFE，雖存有門檻現象，然加入門檻後未能清楚觀察到共整合關係的強化，同時就因果關係檢定而言，只有TSE—LIFFE間存有LIFFE價格領先TSE的現象。 門檻誤差修正模型依據交易成本同質與異質性，分別透過門檻形式與平滑轉換模型進行實證，門檻形式實證結果與門檻共整合結果相近，未能完全支持假設。但透過平滑轉換模型，發現加入門檻後，價格差異向長期均衡收斂效果相當良好，並發現其應用於對於五分鐘資料的價格差異行為，效果優於先前採用的門檻形式，顯示其對於具有ARCH現象的資料有極佳的配置能力。 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與研究目的 1 第二節 研究架構與流程 3 第二章 文獻探討 6 第一節 期貨交易研究相關論文 6 第二節 研究方法文獻探討 11 第三章 日本10年期政府公債期貨介紹 18 第一節 交易所的交易制度 19 第二節 期貨契約的交易規則 23 第三節 台灣進行日本政府公債期貨套利流程 29 第四章 實證研究 33 第一節 資料來源及處理 33 第二節 實證方法與實證結果 33 第五章 研究結論與建議 61 第一節 研究結論 61 第二節 後續研究建議 62 參考文獻 64 英文部分. 64 中文部分 67 相關網站 67

近年來，政府會計之改革為各國探討之議題，本研究探討當政府公部門財務報告採用國際會計準則編製，並且經過獨立審計機關查核後，對其發行公債之殖利率利差之影響。本研究從英國債務管理辦公室及倫敦證券交易所之資料庫，蒐集英國中央政府發行公債之資訊，以 2006 年至 2014 間有交易行為之公債為樣本，進行迴歸分析。結果顯示，公債殖利率利差與採用國際會計準則呈現顯著負相關，意即政府報表採用國際財務報導準則，會使市場投資人獲得更透明之財務資訊，而預期公債之無法償還風險降低，且更加願意投資公債。除此之外，當政府提供依國際財務報導準則編製之政府財務報告，再經過會計師查核，審計效果與殖利率利差亦呈現負相關。敏感性測試則指出，當不考慮金融危機的非常規狀況時，同樣可以顯示出相同結果。 / The reform of government accounting systems has become a trend in many countries during recent decades. This study investigates the effect on sovereign bond yield spread of adopting IFRS in government sector, and how yield spreads might be affected after financial reports are audited. Data of tradable UK sovereign bonds are collected from UK Debt Management Office and London Stock Exchange for the period of 2006-2014. Based on the results of regression analysis, the adoption of IFRS by UK governments is negatively associated with gilt bond yield spreads, which means sovereign risk is perceived to be lower by the investors after the adoption of IFRS by central government. When the IFRS-based government financial reports are audited, negative connections between audited reports and yield spreads provide further evidence that investors show higher faith in the sovereign bonds. Additionally, the results remain the same when data of 2009, an abnormal year because of world financial crisis are added back to the regression.

聯邦模型（Fed Model）為一簡單股市報酬估計模型，認為股市之報酬率與政府十年期公債殖利率相近。本研究以此模型對亞太地區十個市場進行探討，並以反序累積平方和（Reversed Ordered Cusum squared，ROC）的方式偵測市場之結構變異，以做出更精確的預測與分析。所研究的市場包括澳洲、紐西蘭、日本、台灣、南韓、新加坡、香港、泰國、馬來西亞、以及菲律賓。我們得到的結論認為聯邦模型在澳洲、紐西蘭、日本、南韓、新加坡、及菲律賓的確有其效果存在，且在考量可能產生結構變異的時間點後，可使預測準確度提高。因此，我們可採用聯邦模型，做為資產在股市與債市間配置之參考工具。 / The Fed Model indicates that the stock market returns are very close to the long-term government bond yields. This article examines the Fed model in 10 main Asia-Pacific markets- Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia, and Philippine. The Reversed Ordered Cusum squared (ROC) test is used to detect the structural changes, and improve the out-of-sample forecasting results. We conclude that the Fed Model has some prediction power in these 10 markets, and can be considered as a useful dynamic asset allocation tool.

思及當前捉襟見肘的財政窘境，無可避免地，債台高築的臺灣實陷入飲鴆止渴般以債養債之無限迴圈中，導致政府政策效能不彰、社會福利運作生弊亦無可厚非；於『公共債務法』之財政規範下，臺灣業已瀕臨法定舉債門檻，故不論是對短期政府支出之排擠、扭曲性稅率之稽徵抑或對長期經濟成長的斲傷，皆是身為中華民國國民真正惶悚不安之所在。 職是之故，本研究係採用一納入政府財政部門及貨幣當局之擴充『實質景氣循環模型』，藉以Sidrauski（1967）所提出的貨幣效用函數為出發點，將實質餘額引進理論模型，並透過計量操作捕捉實證期間起於西元1971年第一季迄至2007年第四季之政府政策函數，過程中，我們不難發現政府購買性支出及稅率皆存在相當的持續性，且對政府未償公債餘額之高低作出某種程度的反應。亦即，若政府實施公債融通政策，俾使期初公債餘額較高之際，則本期甚或往後各期的政府支出將遭受抑制和排擠，尤有甚者，政府勢必擬以提高未來稅率以茲挹注該債務之還本付息所造成的財政缺口；是以，本研究著眼於引進公債餘額對政府支出及稅率存在反饋作用下，財政政策與貨幣政策之總體效果及各總體變數之動態調整過程的風貌。即便公債發行或賒借為政府提供一財務週轉工具以裨益財政政策保有更靈活之彈性，然據模型所產生的結果顯示，就長期而論，政府必須維持一穩定之未償公債餘額，即公債水準具備『均數復歸』性質，而該財政目標係透過削減未來政府支出、調整扭曲性稅率及鑄幣稅融通政策方得以達成預算平衡，準此，該設定將造成公債融通之減稅政策對經濟體系具有實質效果，『公債融通』管道亦『非中立性政策』，從而傳統『李嘉圖等值定理』於本模型中無法成立。 就政策面層次而言，本研究試圖放寬『反饋法則』與政策係數之設定，以檢視透過不同程度之政府支出、稅率甚至貨幣供給途徑的改變來平衡因增加公債發行所造成的財政赤字，對經濟體系之長短期效果有何迥異處；是文亦藉由衝擊反應函數分別探討於政府支出增加、減稅措施及貨幣擴張之下，政策的傳遞機制與各總體變數之動態性質，顯然地，就高債務比率前提下，當政府戮力於刺激景氣而欲積極實施立竿見影的總體經濟政策之際，卻常因狃於急效而欲速不達，非但政策效果有限，亦可能使體系落入更為不景氣的田地，從而，財政惡化不啻為經濟危機的導火線也就不言而喻。再者，貨幣政策對體系之實質變數具有一定程度的作用，是故，本模型於短期內無法一窺『貨幣中立性』之堂奧，唯長期始得以復見。總括言之，政府亟須奉『健全財政』為圭臬，擬定政策時更得戒慎恐懼，並適切權衡利弊得失，以茲裨益有更具信心的經濟表現。 此外，本研究亦透過『效準』實驗以評估模型『配適度』之良窳，即便於反覆疊代法下，該模擬表現係瑕瑜互見而不盡完美，卻也大抵符合景氣循環之『典型化特徵』；然就實質景氣循環模型所為人詬病之勞動市場一隅而論，引進公債之反饋法則下的財政政策操作，無疑地改善了傳統工時與工資率動輒高度正相關之本質，從而獲致相對較低之理論相關係數，亦朝實證資料所呈現工時與工資率存在幾近零相關甚或低度負相關之表徵更邁進一大步。 / With current financial difficulties beyond government capability, it is inevitable that the already deep-in-debt Taiwan opted for momentary relief by paying debt through debt financing and ended up in an infinite loop, causing spiral-down performances in government policies and faulty operations of social welfare instruments. Taiwan has been on the verge of reaching the statutory upper limit of debt financing according to “The Public Debt Act” regulations and all nationals are becoming anxious about such impacts as crowding out of short-run government spending, levying of distorting taxes, and damages on long-run economic growth. To better understand the debt’s impacts, this research uses the “Real Business Cycle Model” extended by taking government treasury agency and monetary institution into account. Starting with Money In Utility Function (MIUF) as proposed by Sidrauski (1967) to introduce real money balance into the theoretical model and, in the process of econometric manipulation, to detect empirical governmental policy functions in the period between the first quarter, 1971 and the fourth quarter, 2007, it is not hard to discover that there are considerable persistence in both government purchases and tax rates, with manifestation of certain degree of responses to the total amount of outstanding bonds the government has yet to pay. In other words, a governmental bond financing policy designed to render high initial bonds outstanding tends to cause suppression and crowding out of government spending in current and even later periods. Furthermore, the government is bound to plan on raising taxes in the future in order to cut financial deficit gap caused by paying back the principles and interests of the debt. Therefore, this study focuses on presenting the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policies and monetary policies, as well as the dynamic adjustment processes of macroeconomic variables based on the impact of feedback effect of bonds outstanding on government spending and tax rates. Even thought public bonds issuance or debt financing serves as a governmental fiscal instrument for financial turnover to ensure flexibility of fiscal policies, our model shows that the government should, from a long-run perspective, maintain a stable amount of bonds outstanding. Put in a different way, the level of bonds outstanding shows “mean-reverting” characteristics which rely on future government spending cut, distorting tax adjustment and seigniorage financing policy to achieve balance of budget. As a result, such setup would cause the bond-financing backed tax deduction policies to create practical effects on economies and, as the bond financing instruments are “Non-Neutrality” policies, would render the “Ricardian Equivalence Theorem” invalid in our model. In the policy aspect, this study tries to relax both “feedback rules” and setup of policy parameters for investigating the differences between long-run and short-run effects on the economy by different degrees of changes in government spending, tax rates and even money supply channels which are used to balance the fiscal deficit caused by increased bond issuance. This article also studies, through the impulse response function, the policy propagation mechanism and the dynamics of key macroeconomic variables under the situation of government spending increase, tax deduction and monetary expansion. It is obvious that the government, in the case of high debt ratios and when making all endeavors to spur economy by implementing macroeconomic policies aimed for instant results, is accustomed to seeking quick fixes only to achieve very limited effects, sometimes even to drive the economy into further recession. It is therefore evident that fiscal degradation could lead to economic disaster. Moreover, as the monetary policies have certain degrees of influence on real variables of the economy, this model will not be able to clearly analyze the “neutrality of money” in such a short period of time. The effect will only reveal in the long run. In summary, the government should keep “sound finance” as the highest guiding principle and be extremely cautious in formulating policies in order to weigh all pros and cons discreetly, thus help to achieve a benefiting economic performance that generates more confidence. Furthermore, this study assesses “goodness of fit” of the model through a “calibration” experiment. Although the simulation results show, under recursive method, intermingled good and poor occasions that are beyond satisfaction, they generally agree with the “typical characteristics” of business cycles. However, in the aspect of long-criticized labor market of the real business cycle model, the fiscal policy operation under feedback rules with introduction of public debts for sure has greatly improved on the conventional intrinsic property of high correlation between labor hours and real wage rates, by delivering a relatively low theoretical correlation coefficient, which is a big step towards the empirical results of almost zero or even weakly negative correlation between labor hours and real wage rates.