Economists often use complex mathematical models to forecast the future path of the economy and the likelihood of recession. But more simple indicators such as interest rates, stock price indices, and monetary aggregates also contain some relevant information about future economic activity. In this thesis we revisit the usefulness of one such indicator, the yield curve or, more specifically, the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill. By using four different models we examine whether the yield spread has still some predicitve power for future real GDP growth in selected european countries. What is more, we are comparing the predictive power of the yield spread with different variables, both in- sample and out-of-sample. We decompose the yield spread into expectations effect and term premium effect in order to investigate which factor contributes more to predicting real GDP growth. Using modified definition of recession we conclude that that yield spread still contains some useful information for predicting future economic activity, although its predictive power deteriorates.

Research concerning covenants has at large not examined what quantifiable relationship covenants have with yield spreads. We shed light on this topic as we evaluate Swedish bond indentures. By examining the relationship between covenants and yield spread, our results indicate whether covenants effectively mitigate the bondholder-stockholder conflict. The results from our OLS-model indicate that the poison put option and covenants restricting dividends and mergers have a positive relationship with the yield spread, and that the negative pledge has a negative relationship with the yield spread. Furthermore, our results indicate that some covenants are too costly for companies issuing investment grade bonds. Those covenants are therefore only included in bonds with higher yield spreads, where a conflict between bondholders and stockholders could be greater. / Ett kvantifierbart förhållande mellan kovenanter och räntebasmarginalen har överlag i tidigare forskning inte undersökts. I denna uppsats åskådliggör vi detta förhållande genom att undersöka svenska företagsobligationer. Genom att studera relationen mellan kovenanter och räntebasmarginalen kan våra resultat visa på huruvida kovenanter motverkar konflikten mellan obligationsinnehavare och aktieägare. Resultaten från vår OLS-modell visar att poison put option och kovenanter som begränsar utdelningar och fusioner har ett positivt samband med räntebasmarginalen, medan negative pledge har ett negativt samband med räntebasmarginalen. Vidare visar våra resultat att vissa kovenanter är för dyra för företag som ger ut investment grade obligationer. Dessa kovenanter finns därför bara med i obligationer med högre räntebasmarginaler, där en konflikt mellan obligationsinnehavare och aktieägare kan vara större.

Submitted by Aline Amarante (1146629@mackenzie.br) on 2018-10-03T23:59:08Z No. of bitstreams: 2 MARCIO LORENCINI FERREIRA.pdf: 1060734 bytes, checksum: d9e9a65c15e539119d6d7da31b46fcec (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Paola Damato (repositorio@mackenzie.br) on 2018-10-17T18:11:20Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 MARCIO LORENCINI FERREIRA.pdf: 1060734 bytes, checksum: d9e9a65c15e539119d6d7da31b46fcec (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-10-17T18:11:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 MARCIO LORENCINI FERREIRA.pdf: 1060734 bytes, checksum: d9e9a65c15e539119d6d7da31b46fcec (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-07 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / In recent years, Brazil has been experiencing a recession. The gross domestic product, as of 2014, presents negative variations. In this scenario, the National Bank for Economic and Social Development ceases to be a protagonist in the credit market, inducing large organizations to seek other financing alternatives such as debt issuance. It occurs that the interest rates, paid by debt securities issuers, vary depending on the risk they offer. The interest rate on a debt security is composed of a basic interest rate and a yield spread. Among the aspects that may influence this yield spread are the presence of family companies and institutional investors in the ownership structure of companies, as well as the level of rating of the issues. With regard to family businesses, there is a lower level of agency conflict, since owners and managers are the same person. In turn, the monitoring of institutional investors assists the management of the companies, which leads to better financial results and fewer agency problems. The rating rating represents the judgment of market analysts regarding the ability of companies to honor their financial commitments. In view of the above, this study aims to verify whether the participation of family companies and institutional investors in the ownership structure of companies, as well as a better rating, has a negative impact on the yield spread of their debentures. To do so, a final sample of 79 Brazilian non-financial public and private companies with 139 issues indexed to the IPCA between 2010 and 2017. To confirm the hypothesis tests of descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and regression with stacked cross section data are performed. As a result, the greater the participation of institutional investors in the ownership structure of the companies, the lower the yield spread of their debentures and the higher the rating of the organizations, the lower the yield spread of their debentures. This study contributes to the effect of ownership structure on the yield spread, unlike other national studies that evaluate the characteristic of the bonds and financial results of the companies as determinants of the yield spread. / Nos últimos anos, o Brasil vem passando por um momento de recessão. O produto interno bruto, a partir de 2014, apresenta variações negativas. Neste cenário, o Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social deixa de ser protagonista no mercado de crédito, induzindo as grandes organizações a buscarem outras alternativas de financiamentos como emissão de dívida. Ocorre que as taxas de juros, pagas por emissoras de título de dívida, variam em função do risco que elas oferecem. A taxa de juros de um título de dívida é composta por uma taxa de juros básica e por um yield spread. Entre os aspectos que podem influenciar nesse yield spread está a presença de empresas familiares e investidores institucionais na estrutura de propriedade das empresas, bem como o nível de rating das emissões. Com relação as empresas familiares, destaca-se um menor nível de conflito de agência, uma vez que proprietários e gestores são a mesma pessoa. Por sua vez, o monitoramento de investidores institucionais auxilia a gestão das companhias, o que leva a melhores resultados financeiros e menos problemas de agência. Já a classificação de rating representa o julgamento de analistas do mercado a respeito da capacidade de as empresas honrarem seus compromissos financeiros. Diante do exposto, esse estudo tem por objetivo verificar se a participação de empresas familiares e investidores institucionais, na estrutura de propriedade das empresas, bem como uma melhor nota de rating possui impacto negativo no yield spread de suas debêntures. Para tanto, considera-se uma amostra final de 79 companhias brasileiras não financeiras de capital aberto e fechado com 139 emissões indexadas ao IPCA, entre os anos de 2010 e 2017. Para confirmação das hipóteses são realizados testes de estatística descritiva, análise de correlação e regressão com dados cross section empilhados. Como resultado, verifica-se que quanto maior a participação de investidores institucionais na estrutura de propriedade das companhias, menor o yield spread de suas debêntures e que quanto maior o rating das organizações, menor o yield spread de suas debêntures. Este estudo contribui com o efeito da estrutura de propriedade no yield spread, diferente de outros estudos nacionais que avaliam a característica dos títulos e resultados financeiros das empresas como determinantes do yield spread.

The inception of the economic and monetary union (EMU) in January 1999 created new conditions for government debt. By eliminating currency exchange rate risk between the member states, the hope was to achieve a more sustainable and integrated government debt market in the euro area. Even though we witnessed relative stability for several years, the financial turmoil starting in 2008 and more so the European government debt crisis starting in late 2009 led to higher and more volatile yield differentials between the member states. This thesis explores the European government bond market to find the fundamental determinants of yield spreads and to see if the impact of these determinants changed since the start of the debt crisis. Financial theory suggests that there are three main fundamental drivers of government bond yields and as such lay the framework for finding the explanatory variables. By using a fixed-effect panel regression model the empirical findings of this study show that credit risk, liquidity risk, risk aversion all play a significant role in explaining yield spreads in the euro area. Furthermore, we find evidence of increasing marginal effects of all explanatory variables except for global risk aversion since the start of the crisis. We also consider the effect of the statement by the ECB President in 2012 where the ECB committed to quantitative easing as an important reason for the decrease in yields and illustrate this by expanding our model. The contribution of this study is centered around the use of longer timeseries data that provides the significant advantage of fully incorporating the European debt crisis which is something that previous studies were lacking. / Införandet av den ekonomiska och monetära unionen (EMU) i januari 1999 skapade nya villkor för statsskuldmarknaden. Genom att eliminera valutakursrisk mellan medlemsstaterna var förhoppningen att skapa en mer hållbar och integrerad statsskuldmarknad i euroområdet. Trots flera år av relativ stabilitet ledde finanskrisen 2008 och eurokrisen i slutet av 2009 till högre och mer volatila ränteskillnader mellan medlemsstaterna. Denna uppsats undersöker den europeiska obligationsmarknaden för att hitta de grundläggande determinanterna för räntespreads och för att se om effekterna av dessa determinanter har förändrats sedan skuldkrisens början. Genom att använda en “fixed-effects” regressionsmodell visar de empiriska resultaten att kreditrisk, likviditetsrisk, riskaversion spelar en viktig roll för att förklara räntespreads i euroområdet. Vidare finner vi bevis på ökande marginaleffekter för alla determinanter med undantag för global riskaversion sedan krisens början. Vi undersöker också effekten av ECB-Presidentens uttalande 2012 som indikerade en hängivenhet till kvantitativ lättnad som en viktig orsak till fallet i räntespread och illustrerar detta genom att utöka vår modell. Bidraget från denna studie är centrerad kring användandet av längre tidsseriedata som ger den stora fördelen att inkorporera den europeiska skuldkrisen vilket är något som tidigare studier ofta saknat.

The aim of this study is to analyze and compare risk, volatility, yields as well as prices of green bonds, and whether they differ given certification or third party evaluation. The study bases its theoretical standpoint on bond risk, volatility and yield from a standpoint of the Merton as well as Jarrow & Turnbull models, as well as previous studies in the field. With a deductive approach, this study uses a multiple regression analysis, a quantitative method. This study has analyzed 24 green bonds issued between 2018-2020, out of a basis of 301 green bonds. No statistically verified differences were found in volatility, pricing or yield spread between certified and uncertified green bonds, however interesting indications of differences in volatility between regions, and an indication that issue size can affect yield.

Cette thèse étudie le risque de crédit souverain et son impact sur les banques et les entreprises. Le premier essai montre que le risque de crédit bancaire est lié au risque de crédit souverain via l’exposition commune au risque systémique au lieu du sauvetage implicite ou de l’exposition excessive aux obligations émises par le pays d’origine. Dans le deuxième essai, je construis un modèle de structure du capital qui prédit une corrélation négative entre le niveau d’endettement des grands entreprises et le risque de crédit souverain à cause du sauvetage implicite. Cette prédiction est confirmée en suite par des preuves empiriques des entreprises dans la zone euro. Le troisième essai donne un modèle joint de CDS et d’obligation pour identifier les composantes de défaut et de liquidité dans les spreads de CDS et les rendements obligataires. Je trouve une composante de liquidité importante dans les spreads de CDS des pays périphériques de la zone euros et conclus que le fait de ne pas prendre en compte de l’illiquidité des CDS conduit à surestimer la composante de défaut dans le rendement obligataire. / This thesis studies sovereign credit risk and its impact on banks and industrial firms. The first essay shows that bank credit risk is linked to sovereign credit risk through common exposure to systemic risk instead of implicit bailout or excessive holding of home country bonds. In the second essay, I build a trade-off model of capital structure which predicts negative correlation between optimal leverage of big firms and sovereign credit risk due to implicit bailout. The model prediction is confirmed by empirical evidence from firms in the euro area. The third essay provides a joint pricing model of CDS and bond to disentangle the default and liquidity component in CDS spread and bond yield spread. I find a remarkable liquidity component in the CDS spreads of peripheral euro area countries and conclude that ignoring CDS illiquidity leads to overestimation of default component in bond yield.

近年來，政府會計之改革為各國探討之議題，本研究探討當政府公部門財務報告採用國際會計準則編製，並且經過獨立審計機關查核後，對其發行公債之殖利率利差之影響。本研究從英國債務管理辦公室及倫敦證券交易所之資料庫，蒐集英國中央政府發行公債之資訊，以 2006 年至 2014 間有交易行為之公債為樣本，進行迴歸分析。結果顯示，公債殖利率利差與採用國際會計準則呈現顯著負相關，意即政府報表採用國際財務報導準則，會使市場投資人獲得更透明之財務資訊，而預期公債之無法償還風險降低，且更加願意投資公債。除此之外，當政府提供依國際財務報導準則編製之政府財務報告，再經過會計師查核，審計效果與殖利率利差亦呈現負相關。敏感性測試則指出，當不考慮金融危機的非常規狀況時，同樣可以顯示出相同結果。 / The reform of government accounting systems has become a trend in many countries during recent decades. This study investigates the effect on sovereign bond yield spread of adopting IFRS in government sector, and how yield spreads might be affected after financial reports are audited. Data of tradable UK sovereign bonds are collected from UK Debt Management Office and London Stock Exchange for the period of 2006-2014. Based on the results of regression analysis, the adoption of IFRS by UK governments is negatively associated with gilt bond yield spreads, which means sovereign risk is perceived to be lower by the investors after the adoption of IFRS by central government. When the IFRS-based government financial reports are audited, negative connections between audited reports and yield spreads provide further evidence that investors show higher faith in the sovereign bonds. Additionally, the results remain the same when data of 2009, an abnormal year because of world financial crisis are added back to the regression.

本文使用具有事前訊息的領先指標與期間利差作為預測變數,根據不同利差與落後期選擇的 Probit 模型,利用遞迴的方式預測景氣轉折點發生機率,並進一步將個別預測結果進行組合,試圖找出能降低不確定性且優於個別預測結果的方法。實證結果發現,使用 Diebold and Mariano 檢定的預測包容法為其中最優的組合方法,無論是轉折點訊號或預測誤差都能優於半數以上的個別預測。此外,本文亦估計即期景氣轉折點的發生機率,根據模型的估計結果推斷,自 2012 年 2 月至 2015 年 3 月為止,景氣仍處於擴張階段。

The green bond market offers investors the opportunity to take an explicit focus on sustainable investment projects. However, it is yet to be determined whether this novel asset class offers attractive yields compared to non-green bonds. To address this question, we study European green bonds and how they diverge from conventional bonds in terms of yields. Using a dataset of 88 matched pairs of European green bonds between 2015 and 2019, we document a significant negative green bond premium of -12 bps on average in the secondary market. The green bond premium is defined as the yield differential between a green and a conventional bond while controlling for liquidity. The results suggest that European investors accept a lower financial return in exchange for receiving non-pecuniary benefits and thus challenging the assumptions of classical asset pricing models. Furthermore, we use a matching method and two-step regression to control for liquidity and identify the determinants of the green bond premium. The results show that the negative green bond premium is less pronounced for lower-rated bonds. Moreover, we find support for variations in the green bond premium across different business sectors. Government-related green bonds experience a greater negative green bond premium than green bonds related to financials and industrial corporates.