In 2001, the Government of India announced a program for the establishment of Agricultural Export Zones (AEZ). This is the first national program in India to adopt a regional approach to promoting exports of agricultural products, with the combined action of the central and state governments. The gherkin AEZ, covering eight districts of Karnataka, was notified in November 2001. Gherkin is an export-oriented vegetable that is being produced and exported from Karnataka since the late 1980s. Exploration of data on gherkin exports and cultivation costs, for the period 2001-06, revealed the following trends, namely, the share of value of total exports from the gherkin AEZ in India’s gherkin exports has declined from 81% to about 54%; overall (bulk + bottled) gherkin export quantities and value from the AEZ have grown with an annual rate of 18% and 21% respectively; unit price of AEZ bulk gherkins in 200506 is about 4% higher than its unit price in 2001-02 while the unit price of AEZ bottled gherkins is lower by about 9%; and the cost of gherkin cultivation has increased by about 27%. The aim of this research is to apply a stakeholder-based planning framework for enhancing the performance of the Gherkin AEZ in Karnataka. To meet the research aim, the following objectives were defined: 1.Forecasting the primary performance indicators of the gherkin AEZ, in the medium term, given the current policy environment 2.Conducting stakeholder analysis, identifying system structures that influence the gherkin AEZ’s performance and the interventions preferred by stakeholders to enhance gherkin AEZ performance 3.Exploring probable impacts of the identified interventions on gherkin AEZ’s competitiveness 4.Developing policy suggestions and a planning framework for enhancing the performance of the Gherkin AEZ Towards meeting the research objectives, the following approach has been used. One, data has been collected on AEZ performance indicators. Evolution of those variables, given the prevailing policy environment, is forecast using the Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methodology. Second, System elements of the gherkin AEZ are identified and organized as a system dynamics model. Stakeholder analysis of the Gherkin AEZ has been done to identify stakeholder groups. Preferred interventions for improvement of AEZ performance are collected from most stakeholders, and the impact of key interventions on system elements is qualitatively assessed. Considering the large number of system elements and the interrelationships between them, a multiple criteria decision making technique, the analytic network process, is used to describe the decision making environment and prioritize the system elements (factors and subfactors influencing AEZ performance, stakeholder objectives and interventions). Third, the probable impact of preferred interventions on competitiveness of gherkin cultivation in the AEZ is assessed using the Policy Analysis Matrix. Fourth, the analysis and learnings are integrated to suggest policy interventions and develop a planning framework for improved performance of the gherkin AEZ. The 3-year SARIMA models, to forecast the AEZ’s performance indicators, indicate a continued growth in the quantities of gherkin exports from the AEZ with a higher rate of growth in exports of bottled gherkins. The forecast also indicate a continued fall in the unit prices of both bottled and bulk gherkins. Stakeholder analysis and System dynamic models indicate the presence of several stakeholders with multiple objectives, multiple factors which influenced AEZ performance, and several preferred interventions. In this multiple criteria decision making environment, the system elements along with dependencies shown in the system dynamics model, the interventions collected from stakeholders (alternatives), and stakeholder objectives derived from stakeholder analysis, are organized to develop an Analytic Network Process (ANP) model. The cluster priorities from the ANP model indicate that global trade conditions are the most important determinant of AEZ performance. The limit matrix indicates that the element of tastes and preferences of world consumers obtains the highest priority followed by price of other countries’ gherkins, and sanitary and phytosanitary conditions as applicable to Gherkins. The probable impacts of the identified interventions on competitiveness of gherkin cultivation in the AEZ are assessed by applying the policy analysis matrix (PAM). Synthesis of sectoral performance data and factors, results of the system dynamics, ANP and PAM analysis resulted in the development of the planning framework for the gherkin AEZ. Overall, the results and analyses demonstrate that the AEZ program should focus on increasing demand, enhancing prices of AEZ gherkins and reducing cultivation costs. Towards achieving this, recommended policy interventions have been prioritized and participating stakeholders identified. This work represents an application of the multiple criteria methodology of the ANP to agricultural regional planning. The system dynamic methodology has been integrated with ANP to identify the important elements in the gherkin AEZ. This thesis on agricultural exports planning has collected and used micro data (price, product form and grade data) to identify and analyze sectoral issues.

Neo-liberalism has become the dominant approach to economic development since the 1980s. Based on the economic principle of “efficiency”, the Washington Consensus and its supporters have avidly promoted the neoliberal orthodoxy as the ideal blueprint for the economic development of all countries in every region. However, as this thesis has discovered, the efficiency of public policy is weighed not by its conformity to an ideology but on how effective it responds to the economic and social problems of the population in question. In recent years Tonga has endured severe economic shocks which have pushed its low growth economy to the brink of economic crisis. In response to this crisis, the Government has chosen greater economic liberalisation and private sector – led growth to lead the economy to recovery. The Washington Consensus and its international supporters claim that this is the best policy response for Tonga due to the belief that greater liberalisation leads to greater efficiency. This thesis however believes that at the current dire state of the economy, it is not enough for Tongan public policy to just conform to international views on efficient economic development but to ensure that its economic development policies address the economic and social needs of the general Tongan population. With this in mind, this thesis investigated the role of agriculture in economic development. It identified that for an agriculture-based country such as Tonga, at low levels of growth, agricultural development is fundamental to long term economic growth. This research also revealed that agricultural growth is maximised through trade hence suggesting increased focus on agricultural export development. Based on these findings, this research project set out to verify the efficiency of Government agricultural policies by identifying the views of agricultural exporters and comparing these with Government approaches to agricultural export development in Tonga.

El crecimiento económico agroexportador en el valle de Ica se ha llevado a cabo concentrando la tierra y las fuentes de agua subterránea. Este proceso ha dado mayor poder a las empresas agroexportadoras, las cuales responden individualmente a la demanda del mercado internacional. El incremento en la demanda externa de los productos del valle genera importantes beneficios privados, pero inhibe la acción colectiva para la conservación del acuífero. Cada empresa decide la cantidad de pozos a perforar y el volumen de agua subterránea que debe extraer, dados los requerimientos técnicos de los cultivos; y ante una débil regulación pública. La mayor extracción con respecto a la reserva y disponibilidad de agua lleva a un descenso del volumen del acuífero y a un deterioro del recurso común y consecuente escasez. / The economic growth experienced in the agricultural export sector in the Ica Valley has gone along with the concentration of land and groundwater sources. This process has given more power to the exporting companies, which respond individually to demand from international markets. The external demand increase of Ica valley’s products generates significant private gains, but inhibitscollective action towards the conservation of the aquifer. Each company decides the number of wells to be drilled and the volume of groundwater to be drawn, given the technical requirements of the crops and the weak government regulation. The increased extraction compared to the reserve and availability of water, leads to a decrease in the volume of water in the aquifer and to the degradation of the common and consequent scarcity.The research has followed the institutional economy approach to analyze the inter-relations between the social, the technological and the public policies in Ica’s Valley looking for an interdisciplinary perspective.

El presente estudio examina el efecto de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio real sobre las exportaciones agrícolas no tradicionales en el Perú ante la falta de un consenso universal sobre este tema, sea por el tipo de economía, sector o entre otras características. El estudio emplea datos mensuales de series de tiempo para el periodo del 2003 al 2019, a partir de las fuentes de información recolectadas por el Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) y el Sistema de Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos (FED). La investigación utiliza el modelo GARCH para determinar la presencia de la volatilidad en la serie del tipo de cambio real multilateral. Los métodos analíticos empleados fueron los Mínimos Cuadrados Ordinarios (MCO) para demostrar la estabilidad de los parámetros y posteriormente, para el análisis de las relaciones dinámicas tanto a corto como a largo plazo se empleó el modelo de Rezagos Distribuidos Autorregresivos (ARDL). Además de emplear algunas variables de control para estimar los modelos propuestos. Los resultados concluyeron en que la volatilidad del tipo de cambio real tuvo un impacto positivo en las exportaciones agrícolas no tradicionales en el corto plazo para el Perú. Por el otro lado, en el largo plazo no se encontró una incidencia de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio real sobre estas exportaciones agrícolas no tradicionales en el Perú. / This research examines the effect of the real exchange rate volatility on non-traditional agricultural exports in Peru in the absence of a universal consensus on this issue, be it due to the type of economy, sector and among other characteristics. The study used monthly time series data for the period 2003 to 2019, based on information sources collected by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) and the United States Federal Reserve System (FED). The research used the GARCH model to determine the presence of volatility in the series of the multilateral real exchange rate. The analytical methods used were Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) to demonstrate the stability of the parameters and later, for the analysis of dynamic relationships both in the short and long term, the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model was used. In addition to using some control variables to estimate the proposed models. The results concluded that the real exchange rate volatility had a positive impact on non-traditional agricultural exports in the short term in Peru. While, in the long term, there was no incidence of the real exchange rate volatility on these non-traditional agricultural exports. / Trabajo de investigación