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Today, regional and foreign trade is inevitable for a geographically small country like Georgia where resources and markets for sustainable and economic growth are limited. The role of agricultural exports in the economic performance of Georgia was clearly demonstrated by the experience of the collapse of the national economy after independence from the Soviet Union, when Georgian farmers lost the export potential to former Soviet Union countries. As one of the tools, which struggles to re-start agricultural production and trade, in recent years, Georgian countryside experiences abrupt increase in number of agricultural cooperatives that are being established as a result of joint endeavor of international programs and Georgian government. For local farmers, who typically hold small plots of fragmented land, cooperatives are promoted as a tool for better market access and consequently increase of income and poverty reduction. The crucial product, with traditionally highest potential for exports is wine. Georgia, a country located between Caspian Sea and Black sea is also known as cradle of wine. Country's wine industry wants to diversify the markets and expand the export potential. The proposed dissertation thesis will evaluate the Constraints and opportunities of small farmers' market access in Georgia. The whole research is based on econometric time series techniques Granger causality, Co-integration test, Gravity Model, Probit Model, and first-hand experience through personal interviews of authors with members of cooperatives. The results from the research will have important implications for policy-makers in order to implement appropriate growth and development strategies of agriculture and to agricultural trade.

This study assesses the impact on agricultural productivity of the Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) as well as the impact of credit provided to small-scale farmers by commercial banks. It compares the two strategies by government (i.e. FISP which is a government subsidy programme and government grants to commercial banks for on-ward lending to small-scale farmers). This is to determine which policy intervention is promoting agricultural growth among the targeted farmers. The study hypothesises that subsidies through FISP and credit from private lending institutions allow farmers to have access to production inputs and reduces production costs. This enables farmers to maximise output leading to an increase in productivity and growth. This study was done by conducting a survey and data was collected using a structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) criterion are the methods used and the tool for analysis was the Statistical Package for Social Scientist (SPSS). Simple random multistage stratified purposive sampling was used in selecting household respondents. Multistage in the sense that the farm settlements were not defined in a particular pattern with house numbers. Stratified purposive sampling in the sense that farmers had to be separated according to the kind of institution they benefited from. The sample size for the study was 140 individual household for small-scale farmers. Major findings of the study showed that loan beneficiary farmers were investing more in productive assets compared to FISP beneficiary farmers. They had even showed elements of diversification as they were investing more in small livestock such as chickens, goats and pigs unlike the FISP beneficiaries. They had also spent a total of Zambian Kwacha (ZMW) 48, 100 compared to ZMW 28, 462 spent by FISP beneficiaries on productive assets. In terms of investments for assets used in the home, we concluded that both groups had a similar lifestyle but FISP farmers had a higher standard of living compared to loan beneficiary farmers as they had spent 10.6% more in terms of expenditure. The field plots under cultivation were grouped into three categories, i.e. farmers who cultivated plots below 2.5 hectares, 2.6 hectares to 5.0 hectares and above 5.1 hectares to assess which category of farmers was showing growth in terms of land under cultivation. For the 11% FISP beneficiaries who had graduated from the below 2.5 hectares of land being ploughed to the middle bracket, only 1% of the farmers managed to sustain their increase in ploughed land. There were no farmers who managed to plough above 5.1 hectares of land under the FISP category. As for the loan beneficiary group, we see movement in all three categories indicating growth in terms of productivity. We noticed that from the 4% farmers who managed to graduate from the below 2.5 hectares category to the 2.6 hectares to 5.0 hectares category, a further 3% of the beneficiaries managed to graduate to the above 5.1 hectares of area ploughed. We determined variability in output by examining its relationship with independent variables such as educational level attained, fertiliser quantity used, maize seed quantity used and access to assets (oxen) ceteris paribus. Only fertiliser and hybrid maize seed use were found to be statistically significant with p-values below 5% and 10% significant levels respectively in both cases. A 1 kilogram (kg) increase in fertiliser and hybrid maize seed use would result in a 0.69% and 0.26% increase respectively in the quantity of 50 kg bags harvested for FISP beneficiary farmers. A 1 kg increase in fertiliser and hybrid maize seed use would result in a 0.83% and 0.11% increase in the quantity of 50 kg bags of maize harvested by the loan beneficiary farmers. Comparing the two beneficiary groups in terms of productivity and income earned through the sale of maize on the market, the loan beneficiary group was found to be doing far much better compared to the FISP group. In the 2009/10 farming season, the loan group sold a total of 6754 bags of maize compared to 3428 bags sold by the FISP group. In the 2010/11 farming season, the loan group sold 7769 bags as opposed to the 4606 bags sold by the FISP group while in the 2011/12 farming season, the loan group sold a total of 9151 bags of maize on both markets compared to 4822 bags of maize that was sold by the FISP group. Though it may be difficult to distinguish the real effects of both the FISP and loan programme on its beneficiaries due to lack of baseline information based on regression results alone, and claim that it has made either group better than the other, it is clear that the fertiliser support policy is working better for loan beneficiaries when compared to FISP beneficiaries. This gives them an edge in income over FISP beneficiaries and graduates them into higher brackets of productivity and asset possession leading to higher yields, more income and increased growth in agricultural productivity in general. It is recommended that educational level attained should be one of the major criteria for farmer selection when introducing new advanced technologies to increase productivity. The other recommendation is that, to invest in improved ploughing methods such as use of oxen, the area under cultivation should not be less than 2.5 hectares. It is also recommended that government should increase service delivery in an efficient manner as it has positive externalities on farmers dealing with the private sector as well other than just those targeted farmers they are servicing under the FISP programme. / Dissertation (MScAgric)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / tm2015 / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / MScAgric / Unrestricted

Liberalization has been, for the past three decades, one of the most prominent strategies used in the developing world to promote growth and foster development. Haiti, as many other least developed countries, has implemented the liberalization policies over the past two decades. The poor socioeconomic conditions of the Haitians, today, have pushed to question the effectiveness of the neoliberal plan. Agriculture being a pivotal sector of the Haitian economy, the study goal is the evaluation of liberalization on the agricultural production. The findings are that trade liberalization is detrimental to agriculture in Haiti. The food crops production, a major component of the agricultural production, in terms of providing income to the rural poor and ensuring food security, suffered the most from trade liberalization. Also, cash crops production has not increased with liberalization.

O nexo causal entre desenvolvimento financeiro e crescimento econômico vem ganhando destaque na literatura desde o início dos anos 1990. As principais linhas teóricas nessa área buscam demonstrar qual a significância da relação e o sentido da causalidade, se houver. Causalidade unidirecional no sentido do desenvolvimento financeiro para o crescimento econômico, bicausalidade entre ambos, e causalidade reversa, no sentido do crescimento para o desenvolvimento financeiro, são as principais hipóteses testadas nas pesquisas empíricas. O presente trabalho de tese tem por objetivo avaliar o nexo causal entre crédito (como um indicador do desenvolvimento financeiro) e crescimento no setor agropecuário brasileiro. O crédito rural como proporção do PIB agropecuário cresceu substancialmente desde meados da década de 90, passando de 15,44% em 1996 para 65,24% em 2014. Ao longo do período 1969-2014, a razão média anual entre crédito rural e PIB agropecuário foi de 43,87%. No mesmo período, o produto agropecuário cresceu em média 3,76% ao ano. Questiona-se se no mercado rural o crédito causa o crescimento agropecuário, se ocorre causalidade reversa ou se se opera a hipótese de bicausalidade. Para avaliar o nexo causal entre essas duas variáveis econômica foram empregados quatro procedimentos metodológicos: teste de causalidade de Granger em uma representação VAR com a abordagem de Toda e Yamamoto, teste de causalidade de Granger em um modelo FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS), teste de causalidade de Granger em um modelo ARDL (Autoregressive-Distributed Lag) e teste de causalidade de Granger no domínio da frequência, com o uso do método de Breitung e Candelon. Os resultados mostram de forma uniforme a presença de causalidade unidirecional do crédito rural para o crescimento do produto agropecuário. Causalidade reversa, no sentido do crescimento agropecuário para o crédito rural, não foi detectada de forma significativa em nenhum dos quatro métodos empregados. A não detecção de bicausalidade pode ser uma evidência do impacto da forte política de subsídio governamental ao crédito rural. A decisão do Governo quanto ao montante anual de crédito rural disponível a taxas de juros subsidiadas pode estar impedindo que o desempenho do setor, medido pela sua taxa de crescimento, exerça uma influência significativa na dinâmica do crédito rural. Os resultados também abrem a possibilidade a testar a hipótese de exogeneidade do crédito rural, o que seria uma extensão direta dos resultados obtidos. / The finance and growth nexus has gained great attention in economic literature since the early 1990s. The main theoretical lines in this area try to demonstrate if the relationship between financial development and economic growth is significant, and what is the direction of causality, if any. Causality running from financial development to economic growth, bi-causality, and reverse causality, from finance to economic growth, are the main hypotheses tested in empirical research. This thesis aims to assess the causal link between credit (as an indicator of financial development) and growth in Brazilian rural sector. The ratio of rural credit to agricultural GDP has grown substantially since the mid-90s, going from 15.44% in 1996 to 65.24% in 2014. Over the period 1969-2014, the ratio of rural credit to agriculture GDP was 43.87% on average. In the same period, agricultural GDP grew 3.76% on average per year. We question whether there is causality running from rural credit to agricultural growth, if reverse causality occurs or if the bi-causality hypothesis operates in Brazilian rural market. To evaluate the causal link between these two economic variables, four methodological procedures were employed: Granger causality test in a VAR framework using Toda and Yamamoto approach, Granger causality test in a FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS) model, Granger causality test in an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed-Lag) model and Granger causality test in the frequency domain, using Breitung and Candelon method. The results uniformly show the presence of causality running from rural credit to agricultural growth. Reverse causality, from agricultural growth to rural credit, was not significantly detected in any of the four methods. The failure to detect bi-causality may be an evidence of the impact of government\'s subsidy policy on rural credit. The government\'s decisions on the annual amount of rural credit available at subsidized interest rates may be preventing the sector\'s performance, as measured by its growth rate, to significantly influence the dynamics of rural credit. The results also open the possibility to test the exogeneity hypothesis of rural credit.

O nexo causal entre desenvolvimento financeiro e crescimento econômico vem ganhando destaque na literatura desde o início dos anos 1990. As principais linhas teóricas nessa área buscam demonstrar qual a significância da relação e o sentido da causalidade, se houver. Causalidade unidirecional no sentido do desenvolvimento financeiro para o crescimento econômico, bicausalidade entre ambos, e causalidade reversa, no sentido do crescimento para o desenvolvimento financeiro, são as principais hipóteses testadas nas pesquisas empíricas. O presente trabalho de tese tem por objetivo avaliar o nexo causal entre crédito (como um indicador do desenvolvimento financeiro) e crescimento no setor agropecuário brasileiro. O crédito rural como proporção do PIB agropecuário cresceu substancialmente desde meados da década de 90, passando de 15,44% em 1996 para 65,24% em 2014. Ao longo do período 1969-2014, a razão média anual entre crédito rural e PIB agropecuário foi de 43,87%. No mesmo período, o produto agropecuário cresceu em média 3,76% ao ano. Questiona-se se no mercado rural o crédito causa o crescimento agropecuário, se ocorre causalidade reversa ou se se opera a hipótese de bicausalidade. Para avaliar o nexo causal entre essas duas variáveis econômica foram empregados quatro procedimentos metodológicos: teste de causalidade de Granger em uma representação VAR com a abordagem de Toda e Yamamoto, teste de causalidade de Granger em um modelo FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS), teste de causalidade de Granger em um modelo ARDL (Autoregressive-Distributed Lag) e teste de causalidade de Granger no domínio da frequência, com o uso do método de Breitung e Candelon. Os resultados mostram de forma uniforme a presença de causalidade unidirecional do crédito rural para o crescimento do produto agropecuário. Causalidade reversa, no sentido do crescimento agropecuário para o crédito rural, não foi detectada de forma significativa em nenhum dos quatro métodos empregados. A não detecção de bicausalidade pode ser uma evidência do impacto da forte política de subsídio governamental ao crédito rural. A decisão do Governo quanto ao montante anual de crédito rural disponível a taxas de juros subsidiadas pode estar impedindo que o desempenho do setor, medido pela sua taxa de crescimento, exerça uma influência significativa na dinâmica do crédito rural. Os resultados também abrem a possibilidade a testar a hipótese de exogeneidade do crédito rural, o que seria uma extensão direta dos resultados obtidos. / The finance and growth nexus has gained great attention in economic literature since the early 1990s. The main theoretical lines in this area try to demonstrate if the relationship between financial development and economic growth is significant, and what is the direction of causality, if any. Causality running from financial development to economic growth, bi-causality, and reverse causality, from finance to economic growth, are the main hypotheses tested in empirical research. This thesis aims to assess the causal link between credit (as an indicator of financial development) and growth in Brazilian rural sector. The ratio of rural credit to agricultural GDP has grown substantially since the mid-90s, going from 15.44% in 1996 to 65.24% in 2014. Over the period 1969-2014, the ratio of rural credit to agriculture GDP was 43.87% on average. In the same period, agricultural GDP grew 3.76% on average per year. We question whether there is causality running from rural credit to agricultural growth, if reverse causality occurs or if the bi-causality hypothesis operates in Brazilian rural market. To evaluate the causal link between these two economic variables, four methodological procedures were employed: Granger causality test in a VAR framework using Toda and Yamamoto approach, Granger causality test in a FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS) model, Granger causality test in an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed-Lag) model and Granger causality test in the frequency domain, using Breitung and Candelon method. The results uniformly show the presence of causality running from rural credit to agricultural growth. Reverse causality, from agricultural growth to rural credit, was not significantly detected in any of the four methods. The failure to detect bi-causality may be an evidence of the impact of government\'s subsidy policy on rural credit. The government\'s decisions on the annual amount of rural credit available at subsidized interest rates may be preventing the sector\'s performance, as measured by its growth rate, to significantly influence the dynamics of rural credit. The results also open the possibility to test the exogeneity hypothesis of rural credit.

This thesis has three self-contained articles. Economic growth and trade in human capital: A salient empirical pattern in the East Asian “miracle” is a large increase in output and factor accumulation despite  only a modest increase in TFP. I develop and calibrate a model of growth and catch-up to provide a possible explanation. A novel element of the model is a globalized education market allowing human capital transfer from frontier to developing economies – an assumption motivated by the experience of countries like Korea and Taiwan where domestic universities employed graduates of Western universities to provide advanced training. The political economy of urban bias in dictatorial regimes. In many developing countries, public resource allocation is often biased against the rural population – a policy that hurts the vast majority of the poor living in rural areas. This paper develops a dynamic political economy model of urban bias in a dictatorial regime. A novel result of the model is that urban bias can emerge in predominantly agrarian economies even if there is no bias  in political power toward urban residents. The empirical evidence from a recently compiled country-level panel dataset on agricultural taxes/subsidies is consistent with the prediction of the model. Does agricultural growth cause manufacturing growth? Empirically assessing the impact of agricultural growth on manufacturing growth is challenging because of endogeneity concerns. This paper attempts to circumvent the identification challenge by using weather variations to instrument for agricultural growth. The IV estimations show that agricultural growth has a significant positive impact on manufacturing growth, and it is larger than the OLS estimates. I discuss the empirical implications for agricultural policies, efficiency of the manufacturing sector, and for the role of agricultural growth in Africa's industrialization.

Submitted by Emanuel Varela Cardoso (emanuel.varela@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-05-14T19:52:45Z No. of bitstreams: 1 VIRGÍNIA DE FÁTIMA BEZERRA NOGUEIRA – TESE (PPGMET) 2015.pdf: 2294664 bytes, checksum: 660de8adf5292855bb29d8690566ac6b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-14T19:52:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 VIRGÍNIA DE FÁTIMA BEZERRA NOGUEIRA – TESE (PPGMET) 2015.pdf: 2294664 bytes, checksum: 660de8adf5292855bb29d8690566ac6b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-27 / A avaliação das conexões entre degradação ambiental no bioma Cerrado e mudanças climáticas constitui o foco central desta pesquisa. Nos últimos anos a intervenção humana em biomas ricos em biodiversidade, que é de grande importância para o país, aumentou consideravelmente provocando alterações significativas no ciclo hidrológico. O impacto dessas intervenções exige a realização de pesquisas com abordagens mais específicas, que permitam aprimorar o conhecimento sobre os impactos de influências antrópicas no clima regional e evidenciar a urgência de medidas mitigadoras. Os procedimentos de análise se basearam na caracterização ambiental da área através de informações de satélite (sensoriamento remoto), e detecção de mudanças no padrão de comportamento de variáveis atmosféricas resultantes da transformação da vegetação nativa em áreas agrícolas (monocultura da soja) na região de Chapadinha-MA. Técnicas estatísticas, incluindo análise multivariada (análise fatorial em análise de componentes principais) e testes paramétricos (teste – t, teste F / análise de variância) e não paramétricos (teste Sequencial de Mann-Kendall / teste de Pettitt), foram usadas como principais ferramentas de investigação. Os resultados indicam que o processo de degradação da vegetação nativa (Cerrado) na região de Chapadinha teve início antes da entrada da soja; no entanto, a sojicultora foi determinante para tornar significativa este impacto no clima. Evidências de impacto de mudanças antrópicas foram detectadas nas temperaturas máxima e mínima. O aumento significativo nos valores das temperaturas extremas é um indício importante de que a degradação no Cerrado pode contribuir no processo de desertificação na região analisada. / The evaluation of the connections between environmental degradation in the Cerrado biome and climate change is the central focus of this research. In recent years human intervention in biomes rich in biodiversity, which is of great importance for the country has risen sharply causing significant changes in the hydrological cycle. The impact of these interventions requires conducting research with more specific approaches, which allow improve knowledge about the impacts of anthropogenic influences on regional climate and highlight the urgent need for mitigation measures. Screening procedures were based on environmental characterization of the area through satellite information (remote sensing), and detection of changes in the pattern of behavior of atmospheric variables resulting from the processing of native vegetation in agricultural areas (Soy monoculture) in the Chapadinha region -MA. Statistical techniques, including multivariate analysis (factor analysis in principal component analysis) and parametric tests (t - test, test F / ANOVA) and nonparametric (Sequential Mann-Kendall / Pettitt test) were used as main research tools. The results indicate that the native vegetation degradation process (cerrado) in the region Chapadinha started before soybean input; however, the sojicultora was crucial to make this significant impact on the climate. Impact evidence of anthropogenic changes were detected in maximum and minimum temperatures. The significant increase in extremes of temperature values is an important indication that the degradation in the Cerrado can contribute to the process of desertification in the region analyzed.

MSCAEC / Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness