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Heavy air pollution is a global phenomenon that affects both developing and developed countries. While many studies have estimated air pollution’s negative impact on health, no study has shown air pollution to have any impact on countries’ aggregate economic productivity. With a growing body of literature showing that air pollutants may have a significant negative impact on labor productivity, a primary input to a nation’s economic production, I hypothesize and show that ambient air pollution indeed exhibits a significant negative impact on a country’s economic productivity as measured by GDP per capita. In Chapters 1 and 2 of this dissertation, I make identification of the causal relationship between air pollution and GDP per capita using the Huai River Policy and wild res as instruments. Chapter 3 investigates the impact of temperature, another key environmental factor, on labor productivity using a rich data set comprising 4 million baseball pitches. My results provide empirical evidence for modeling economic loss in response to air pollution and climate change.

Graduation date: 1970

Graduation date: 1973

published_or_final_version / Urban Planning / Master / Master of Science in Urban Planning

大量學術文獻指出氣候變化是毫不含糊地由持續增加的人為溫室氣體排放所造成。其中，二氧化碳排放（碳排放）是最為重要的溫室氣體排放。碳排放和經濟發展之間的密切關係亦受到廣泛肯定。碳排放和收入之間的關係引起了研究人員的極大興趣。學者們對該關係的環境庫茲涅茨曲線（一個倒U形曲線）的有效性持有不同的觀點，該曲線之有效性的討論可以分為兩部分，即時間和空間（國家）的尺度。 / 在這項研究中，首先以描述性統計研究碳排放量的變化，其中包括排放總量，人均排放量和碳強度三個指標。然後，透過雙對數和二次雙對數回歸模型進一步研究這三項指標和各經濟發展指標的關係（經濟發展指標包括總量和人均國內生產總值，貿易值和產業值）。結果指出國內生產總值可以很好地解釋碳排放之變化。根據1970年到2007年的數據，排放總量和國內生產總值總量在雙對數回歸模型中呈現顯著的線性關係。同樣在雙對數回歸模型中，人均排放量和人均國內生產總值之間的關係則從顯著線性變成顯著二次（倒U形曲線），從而支持環境庫茲涅茨曲線理論。碳強度和人均國內生產總值之間的關係是顯著的倒U形曲線。所有研究國家的回歸結果指出，發達國家在經濟增長的同時，已經減少排放總量及人均量，而發展中國家沒有減少。大多數發達國家在碳強度和人均國內生產總值的關係上呈現顯著的負相關，而發展中國家在碳強度和人均國內生產總值之間的關係上比例平均。在一般情況下，其他因素如貿易值和產業值解釋碳排放變化之能力較國內生產總值差。較特別的結果是由於製造、礦業和公用事業產業值屬於高碳密集性，該產業能很好地解釋碳排放的變化，所以為該產業的度身訂造之減排控制是必要的。 / 進一步說，發展中國家之間的差異仍然很大。透過層次聚類法，所有國家基於排放水平可分成11個類。其中，第11類主要包括發達國家，擁有極高的排放總量，非常高的人均排放量和中等的碳強度。與此同時，第4類主要包括發展中國家，亦有非常高的總排放量，中等的人均排放量和極高的碳強度。美國和中國，分別為第11類和第4類的案例研究，這兩國能有效地幫助了解碳排放和經濟發展之相互關係。其他集群則代表不同的經濟發展階段。聚類分析的結果可作為未來國際氣候變化政策建設的參考。 / Wealth of scholarly reviewed literatures indicates that climate change is unequivocally caused by the continual increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions remain to be of upmost importance among all GHGs emissions. It is widely accepted that close relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic development exists. The relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and income, in particular, has aroused much research interests. Researchers have polarizing views on the validity of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), an inverted U-shaped curve of that relationship. The ground of argumentation for the validity of EKC can be also divided into two parts, namely temporal and spatial (national) extents. / In this research, variations in three indicators of carbon dioxide emissions, including total emissions, per capita emissions and carbon intensity (CI), are firstly examined by descriptive statistics. Next, double-log and quadratic double-log regression models are employed to study the relationship between these three indicators and indicators of economic development (including the total and per capita GDP, trade values and sectoral values). Results show that GDP has high explanatory power for the large variation of emissions. By using the data from 1970 to 2007, the relationship between total emissions and total GDP is significantly linear in double-log regression models. The relationship between per capita emissions and per capita GDP has changed from linear to quadratic (inverted U-shaped), which supports the EKC. The relationship between CI and per capita GDP is significant in an inverted U-shaped curve. Regression results in each country indicate that developed countries have reduced total and per capita emissions in parallel with economic growth while developing countries have not. Majority of developed countries have negative relationship between CI and per capita GDP; whereas their counterparts have even proportion in the relationships. Other explanatory factors, like trade values and sectoral values, in general, have lower explanatory power than GDP. Surprisingly, results indicated that manufacturing, mining and utility (MMU) sector yields very high explanatory power for the variation of carbon dioxide emissions due to the sector’s high carbon-intensive nature. Tailor-made control on this sector is necessary for emissions abatement. / Furthermore, as the variation within developing countries is still large, countries are classified into clusters on the basis of their levels of emissions by Hierarchical Cluster Analysis. Eleven clusters are formed. Among all, cluster 11, comprised of mostly developed countries, yields extremely high total emissions, very high per capita emissions and medium CI. Meanwhile, cluster 4, made of mostly developing countries, have very high total emissions, medium per capita emissions and extremely high CI. The USA and China, case studies of clusters 11 and 4 respectively, have provided insight for the interactive relationship between emissions and economic development. Remaining clusters represent different stages of economic development. The results of the clustering can serve as a reference for the construction of future climate change policy. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Wong, Wai Fung. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 273-280). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstracts also in Chinese. / ABSTRACT --- p.i / 摘錄 --- p.iii / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --- p.iv / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.v / LIST OF TABLES --- p.x / LIST OF FIGURES --- p.xix / LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS --- p.xxiv / Chapter CHAPTER ONE: --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- EFFECTS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- VARIATION IN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AMONG COUNTRIES IN TERMS OF THREE INDICATORS: TOTAL AMOUNT, PER CAPITA AMOUNT AND CARBON INTENSITY (CI) --- p.3 / Chapter 1.3 --- RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.6 / Chapter 1.4 --- RESEARCH QUESTIONS --- p.8 / Chapter 1.5 --- RESEARCH OBJECTIVES --- p.8 / Chapter 1.6 --- SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY --- p.9 / Chapter 1.7 --- ORGANIZATION OF THE THESIS --- p.10 / Chapter CHAPTER TWO: --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.12 / Chapter 2.1 --- CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS --- p.12 / Chapter 2.1.1 --- Definitions of carbon dioxide emissions --- p.12 / Chapter 2.1.2 --- Estimation of carbon dioxide emissions --- p.13 / Chapter 2.1.3 --- Importance of carbon dioxide emissions in the context of climate change --- p.15 / Chapter 2.2 --- ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.19 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- Concept and different stages of economic development --- p.19 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- Indicators of economic development among all countries --- p.20 / Chapter 2.2.3 --- Economic development since 1970 in major countries --- p.23 / Chapter 2.3 --- PAST STUDIES ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.30 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- Relationship between emissions and income expressed by GDP --- p.30 / Chapter 2.3.2 --- Relationship between emissions and international trade expressed by export and import values --- p.38 / Chapter 2.3.3 --- Relationship between emissions and sectoral composition expressed by sectoral values --- p.43 / Chapter 2.4 --- RESEARCH GAPS IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.44 / Chapter 2.4.1 --- Identification of relationship between emissions and economic development --- p.44 / Chapter 2.4.2 --- Classification of countries based on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions --- p.46 / Chapter 2.4.3 --- Research plan for this study --- p.47 / Chapter 2.5 --- SUMMARY OF THE LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.48 / Chapter CHAPTER THREE: --- CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK, DATA SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY --- p.49 / Chapter 3.1 --- INTRODUCTION OF THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK --- p.49 / Chapter 3.2 --- RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS UNDER THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK --- p.50 / Chapter 3.3 --- INTRODUCTION TO THE INDICATORS OF THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK --- p.51 / Chapter 3.4 --- RELATIONSHIPS AMONG THE COMPONENTS --- p.53 / Chapter 3.4.1 --- Relationship between income and carbon dioxide emissions --- p.53 / Chapter 3.4.2 --- Relationship between international trade and carbon dioxide emissions --- p.54 / Chapter 3.4.3 --- Relationship between sectoral composition and carbon dioxide emissions --- p.54 / Chapter 3.5 --- EXAMINATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP IN SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT --- p.54 / Chapter 3.6 --- DATA SOURCE --- p.57 / Chapter 3.6.1 --- Data source for the indicators of economic development and population --- p.57 / Chapter 3.6.2 --- Data source for the indicators of carbon dioxide emissions --- p.58 / Chapter 3.7 --- METHODOLOGY --- p.59 / Chapter 3.7.1 --- Variables used in the research --- p.59 / Chapter 3.7.2 --- Methodology used in the research --- p.60 / Chapter 3.8 --- SUMMURY OF THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK, DATA SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY --- p.63 / Chapter CHAPTER FOUR: --- VARIATIONS IN THE LEVELS OF INDICATORS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.65 / Chapter 4.1 --- VARIATIONS IN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, POPULATION AND GDP --- p.65 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- Variation in total carbon dioxide emissions --- p.65 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- Variation in total population --- p.72 / Chapter 4.1.3 --- Variation in total GDP --- p.75 / Chapter 4.1.4 --- Variation in per capita carbon dioxide emissions --- p.79 / Chapter 4.1.5 --- Variation in per capita GDP --- p.83 / Chapter 4.1.6 --- Variation in CI --- p.87 / Chapter 4.2 --- VARIATIONS IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE VALUES AND SECTORAL VALUES --- p.91 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Variation in total export values --- p.91 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Variation in total import values --- p.94 / Chapter 4.2.3 --- Variation in per capita export values --- p.96 / Chapter 4.2.4 --- Variation in per capita import values --- p.99 / Chapter 4.2.5 --- Variation in trade balance --- p.102 / Chapter 4.2.6 --- Variation in total sectoral values --- p.104 / Chapter 4.2.7 --- Variation in per capita sectoral values --- p.106 / Chapter 4.2.8 --- Variation in sectoral composition --- p.107 / Chapter 4.3 --- SUMMARY ON THE VARIATIONS IN THE LEVELS OF INDICATORS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.109 / Chapter CHAPTER FIVE: --- RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN INDICATORS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.112 / Chapter 5.1 --- RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INCOME IN TERMS OF TOTAL AMOUNT, PER CAPITA AMOUNT AND CARBON INTENSITY --- p.112 / Chapter 5.1.1 --- Relationship between total carbon dioxide emissions and total GDP --- p.112 / Chapter 5.1.2 --- Relationship between per capita carbon dioxide emissions and per capita GDP --- p.123 / Chapter 5.1.3 --- Relationship between CI and per capita GDP --- p.133 / Chapter 5.2 --- RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN TERMS OF TOTAL AMOUNT, PER CAPITA AMOUNT AND CARBON INTENSITY --- p.142 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- Relationship between total carbon dioxide emissions and total values of exports and imports --- p.142 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- Relationship between per capita carbon dioxide emissions and per capita values of exports and imports --- p.146 / Chapter 5.2.3 --- Relationship between CI and per capita values of exports and imports . --- p.151 / Chapter 5.3 --- RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND SECTORAL COMPOSITION IN TERMS OF TOTAL AMOUNT, PER CAPITA AMOUNT AND CARBON INTENSITY --- p.157 / Chapter 5.3.1 --- Relationship between of total carbon dioxide emissions and total values of six sectors --- p.157 / Chapter 5.3.2 --- Relationship between per capita carbon dioxide emissions and per capita values of six sectors --- p.160 / Chapter 5.3.3 --- Relationship between CI and per capita values of six sectors --- p.163 / Chapter 5.3.4 --- Relationship between indicators of carbon dioxide emissions and ratios of sectoral values to the sum of all sectors --- p.165 / Chapter 5.4 --- SUMMARY ON THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN INDICATORS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.168 / Chapter CHAPTER SIX: --- CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES BASED ON THE LEVELS OF TOTAL CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, PER CAPITA CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND CARBON INTENSITY --- p.171 / Chapter 6.1 --- CORRELATION ANALYSIS BETWEEN TOTAL EMISSIONS, PER CAPITA EMISSIONS AND CARBON INTENSITY --- p.171 / Chapter 6.2 --- MEMBERSHIP OF COUNTRIES AND BASIC CHARACTERISTICS OF EACH CLUSTER --- p.173 / Chapter 6.2.1 --- Result of Hierarchical Cluster Analysis and membership of countries --- p.173 / Chapter 6.2.2 --- Characteristics of each cluster in terms of carbon dioxide emissions --- p.176 / Chapter 6.2.3 --- Characteristics of each cluster in terms of GDP (indicator of economic development) --- p.180 / Chapter 6.3 --- IN-DEPTH EXAMINATION OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EACH CLUSTER --- p.184 / Chapter 6.3.1 --- Clusters with extremely high to very high total emissions: clusters 11 and 4 --- p.185 / Chapter 6.3.2 --- Clusters with high total emissions: clusters 8, 10 and 3 --- p.211 / Chapter 6.3.3 --- Clusters with medium to low total emissions: clusters 9, 2 and 1 --- p.230 / Chapter 6.3.4 --- Clusters with very low to extremely low total emissions: clusters 5, 6 and 7 --- p.247 / Chapter 6.4 --- SUMMARY OF THE RESULTS --- p.263 / Chapter CHAPTER SEVEN: --- CONCLUSION --- p.267 / Chapter 7.1 --- MAJOR FINDINGS OF THE RESEARCH --- p.267 / Chapter 7.2 --- IMPLICATIONS OF THE RESEARCH --- p.270 / Chapter 7.3 --- LIMITATIONS OF THE RESEACH --- p.271 / Chapter 7.4 --- RECOMMENDATION FOR FUTURE RESEARCH --- p.272 / REFERENCES --- p.273 / APPENDICES --- p.281

Air pollution simulation has several components, including data preparation, atmospheric circulation and air pollution dispersion modelling and computation, visualization of the model computation results, analysis and model evaluation. Of these components, only atmospheric circulation and air pollution dispersion modelling and computation are mature, while the other components are weak to a greater or lesser extent. To address these weaknesses, this thesis proposes to integrate the data, modelling and analysis into a multi-dimension, virtual geographically referenced environment. In addition, collaboration is used to solve the problem of multi-disciplinary knowledge requirements for conducting air pollution simulation. Based on this model, a concept of collaborative virtual geographic environments (CVGE) is proposed. / The air pollution that is associated with global economic growth is a global problem. Scientists, governmental officials and the public are focusing on improving understanding, accurately predicting and efficiently controlling levels of air pollution. Air pollution simulation is one method used to achieve these goals. This research will consider a computer supported simulation. / The contributions can be drawn from two aspects---CVGE and practice of air pollution simulation. Regarding CVGE, thesis 1 develops the conceptual framework of CVGE; 2 designs the architecture of a CVGE prototype in order to facilitate air pollution simulation; 3 proposes the concept of a "fuzzy boundary volume object", and designs a solution composed of a particle system wrapped in pollution boxes; and 4 examines the levels of geo-collaboration for air pollution simulation. For air pollution simulation, thesis 1 integrates air pollution sources, geo-data, an atmospheric circulation model, an air pollution dispersion model, geo-visualization and analysis into a collaborative virtual geographic environment, which is able to supply a new research methodology and platform for air pollution simulation; in 2, the new platform is scalable and able to free the restrictions of operations on visualization, which paves the way for further extension; 3 couples air pollution dispersion models with geo-information, opening up opportunities for cross studies between air pollution and other research areas, such as the economy, public health and urban planning. / The focus of this thesis is two-fold: one is on the development of a conceptual framework and prototype of CVGE from practice of air pollution simulation; the other is on applying this framework to facilitate air pollution simulation. The work of this thesis can be summarized as follows. (1) Defining the concept of CVGE, developing a conceptual framework for CVGE and discussing primary theories of CVGE. (2) Designing the architecture of a CVGE prototype to facilitate air pollution simulation. (3) Integration and computation of a complex atmospheric circulation model and an air pollution dispersion model based on high performance computation. (4) Geo-visualization of air pollution distribution and dispersion based on calculations using air pollution dispersion models. (5) Geo-collaboration for air pollution simulation. And finally (6) CVGE prototype based air pollution simulation. / The motivation for future research has two main aspects again---CVGE and practice of air pollution simulation. For the aspect of CVGE, possibilities for future research include: 1 more detailed research on the CVGE concept, primary theories and methodologies; 2 the efficient integration and management of heterogeneous geo-models with CVGE in standardization; and 3 the efficient rendering of a complex structured object in CVGE. Regarding practice, future research can be conducted into: 1 extending air pollution dispersion models; and 2 improving the efficiency of air pollutant rendering with a particle system wrapped in pollution boxes. / Xu, Bingli / Adviser: Hui Lin. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 72-11, Section: A, page: . / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 251-264). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. [Ann Arbor, MI] : ProQuest Information and Learning, [201-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstract also in Chinese.

This dissertation consists of three essays in the field of applied environmental economics. The first two essays study the effect of daily ambient temperature on police officer behavior. Police officers often exercise substantial discretion when making highly consequential decisions, which can lead to unfair and arbitrary law enforcement. In the first chapter, I exploit daily ambient temperature as a source of transitory, high-frequency shocks and examine how it affects an officer’s decision whether to discount a driver’s speeding penalty in Florida. I find that a 1-standard-deviation increase in temperature lowers the driver’s probability of receiving a lenient ticket by 2%. In addition, using traffic monitoring data and crash reports, I do not find evidence of decreased police effort or increased reckless driving on hot days. I show that the reduction in leniency is disproportionally borne by white drivers, who on average benefit more from officer leniency. In addition, I find that newly hired officers become less affected by temperature as they accumulate more experience on the job. The first chapter shows that daily ambient temperature has a significant effect on police officers’ professional performance. Inspired by this result, in the second chapter I study the effect of temperature on officers’ online expressed sentiment. Mood changes caused by temperature could be a potential mechanism for officers’ behavioral changes observed in the first chapter. To study this question, I obtained messages posted on an online police forum that is popular among Florida police departments. I find that a 1-standard-deviation increase in temperature leads to a 3.5% increase in the use of profanity. In addition, higher temperature has a negative but nonlinear relationship with expressed sentiment. I also find limited evidence of a change in forum activity or discussion topics on relatively hot days, which suggests that these results are likely to be driven by temperature’s effect on officers’ mood. Taken together, the first two chapters highlight the sensitivity of law enforcement behavior to transitory shocks such as environmental conditions. The third chapter, which is joint work with Xinming Du, explores the impact of the 2018 China- U.S. trade war on air pollution in China. Since the Chinese economic data is heavily censored, we take air pollution as a proxy for measuring economic activity. Using city-industry level trade data, we construct a Bartik-style trade war exposure measure for cities in China and compare the pollution trajectory of cities in the top quartile of our measure to those in the bottom quartile under a difference-in-difference design. In addition, to test whether local governments relaxed their enforcement of environmental policies in response to the trade war, we look at whether firms changed their tendency of polluting in the dark during the trade war. Our analysis finds a negative but small and not robust effect of the U.S. tariffs on China’s air quality and no effect of the Chinese retaliatory tariffs. In addition, we find no impact on disguised pollution behaviors of local firms. We conclude that the trade war had minimal effect on China’s economic activity.

In the literature, some studies argue that affluence and the financial sector encourages low-carbon investments which result in lower emissions while others find that they enhance emissions. Contemporary studies barely consider agriculture, employment generation and the degree of financial development as determinants of emissions. In view of these, the thesis investigates the impact of economic and financial development on CO2 emissions in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Applying the EKC and STIRPAT framework, the study modelled three functional forms which were estimated using an unbalanced panel data of 45 SSA countries by employing static and dynamic analytical methods. The models were re-estimated for 24 low (LIC), 13 lower-middle (LMIC), six upper-middle (UMIC) and two high-income countries (HIC). The study found evidence that empirical results differ in terms of the (sub-) sample of countries, estimation methods and functional forms. In detail, the study found different CO2 emissions-economic development relationships for the income groups. However, there is evidence of a linkage between later developments of the economies with lower emissions in LIC and UMIC while this linkage does not exist in LMIC and HIC. The study also found that financial development lowers CO2 in UMIC while it enhances emissions in LIC, LMIC and HIC. Despite this, there is evidence of a linkage between later developments of financial sectors with higher emissions in LIC and HIC and a linkage between later developments of financial sectors with lower CO2 in UMIC in SSA meanwhile no linkage was found for LMIC. The study concludes that not all economic development increases the level of CO2 emissions and not all financial development limits CO2 emissions in SSA during the study period. Generally, the main contributory variables to CO2 emissions are income, trade openness, energy consumption, population density and domestic credit to private sector to GDP. The main reducing factors of CO2 emissions are agriculture and official exchange rate. The thesis recommends that SSA needs to be more responsive to a cleaner CO2 environment by moving away from the conduct of unclean development strategy to intensified green investments. / Economics / D. Phil. (Economics)