Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Philip G. Gayle / This dissertation seeks to answer questions regarding changes in the competitive environment in international air travel markets which has undergone rapid changes since the early 1990s. Specifically, the research in this dissertation examines policies regarding cooperation among airlines in international air travel markets as well as how cooperation affects an airline's product quality. These issues are explored in two essays which comprise my dissertation. The first essay explores the efficacy of a policy known as a carve-out. Airlines wanting to cooperatively set prices for their international air travel service must apply to the relevant authorities for antitrust immunity (ATI). While cooperation may yield benefits, it can also have anti-competitive effects in markets where partners competed prior to receiving ATI. A carve-out policy forbids ATI partners from cooperating in markets policymakers believe will be most harmed by anti-competitive effects. We examine carve-out policy applications to three ATI partner pairings, and find evidence of tacit collusion in carve-out markets in spite of the policy, calling into question whether consumers benefited from application of the policy in the cases studied. The second essay examines the relationship between product quality and airline cooperation. Much of the literature on airline cooperation focuses on the price effects of cooperation. The key contribution of our paper is to empirically examine the product quality effects of airline cooperation. Two common types of cooperation among airlines involve international alliances and antitrust immunity (ATI), where ATI allows for more extensive cooperation. The results suggest that increases in the membership of a carrier's alliance or ATI partners are associated with the carrier's own products having more travel-convenient routing quality. Therefore, a complete welfare evaluation of airline cooperation must account for both price and product quality effects.

Airlines wanting to cooperatively set prices for their international air travel service must apply to the relevant authorities for antitrust immunity (ATI). Whether consumers, on net, benefit from a grant of ATI to partner airlines has caused much public debate. This paper investigates the impact of granting ATI to oneworld alliance members on their price, markup, and various measures of cost. The evidence suggests that implementation of the oneworld alliance without ATI did not have a statistically significant impact on the markup of products offered by the members, and there is no evidence that the subsequent grant of ATI to various members resulted in higher markups on their products. We find evidence suggesting that the grant of ATI facilitated a decrease in partner carriers’ marginal and fixed costs. Furthermore, member carriers’ price did not increase (decreased) in markets where their services do (do not) overlap, implying that consumers, on net, benefit from the grant of ATI in terms of price changes.

This thesis is involved with exploration of key changes drivers and market phenomena in the Southeast Asia and the development of new conceptual frameworks for business environmental analysis of airlines. The research is constructed under the phenomenology paradigm which adopts a coherentism approach and mainly takes airline industry’s publications, statistics, and executives as units of analysis. Hermeneutic phenomenology, a single-embedded case study, concurrent triangulation mixed method, and grounded theory are all used as methodologies. Methods using document reviews, interviews, and questionnaires are applied to surface the key changes drivers, market phenomena and the perceptions of the importance of changes factors. The collected data are analysed by content analysis, thematic analysis, cognitive mapping analysis, constant comparative analysis and descriptive analysis to classify, generalise and develop into proper forms. The research reveals that ‘market’, ‘competition/strategy’, ‘regulation/policy’, ‘infrastructure/resource’, ‘cooperation’, ‘distribution’, ‘technology, and ‘broad’ factors are discovered as key change drivers. Their different importance levels are measured by occurrences, density, centrality, and tail occurrences as root causes of changes. The characteristics of their interrelationships are based on directional and influential dimensions. There are 16 emerged changes/market phenomena and 11 generalised conceptual frameworks and 3 newly developed frameworks for analysing the airline business environment. The quantitative findings from content analysis are evaluated by inter-coder analysis which achieves kappa coefficient = 0.87 indicating high reliability of the analysis. The qualitative findings are qualified through ten criteria assessment of research quality. The deliverables provide both theoretical and methodological contributions. The research limitations are found in some sources of collected data and findings which are caused by scarce data availability and three types of biases. The recommendations for future research into financial performance, changes’ leading indicators and comparative in-depth study in other ASEAN countries and regions are made.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Philip G. Gayle / This dissertation constitutes two essays in the field of industrial organization. Specifically, the research focuses on empirically assessing the market effects of airline alliances. The first essay examines how codesharing, a form of strategic alliances, by airlines affects market entry decisions of potential competitors. Researchers have written extensively on the impact that strategic alliances between airlines have on airfare, but little is known of the market entry deterrent impact of strategic alliances. Using a structural econometric model, this essay examines the market entry deterrent impact of codesharing between incumbent carriers in U.S. domestic air travel markets. We find that a specific type of codesharing between market incumbents has a market entry deterrent effect to Southwest Airlines, but not other potential entrants. Furthermore, we quantify the extent to which market incumbents’ codesharing influences market entry cost of potential entrants. The second essay examines the effects of granting Antitrust Immunity (ATI) to a group of airlines. Airline alliance partners often want to extend cooperation to revenue sharing, which effectively implies joint pricing of their products (explicit price collusion). To explicitly collude on price, airlines must apply to the relevant government authorities for ATI (U.S. Department of Justice and Department of Transportation in the case of air travel markets that have a U.S. airport as an endpoint), which effectively means an exemption from prosecution under the relevant antitrust laws. Whether consumers, on net, benefit from a grant of ATI to partner airlines has caused much public debate. This essay specifically investigates the impact of granting ATI to oneworld alliance members on their price, markup, and various measures of cost. The evidence suggests that the grant of ATI facilitated a decrease in partner carriers’ marginal cost, and increased (decreased) their markup in markets where their service do (do not) overlap. Furthermore, member carriers’ price did not change (decreased) in markets where their services do (do not) overlap, implying that consumers, on net, benefit in terms of price changes.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Philip G. Gayle / This dissertation is composed of two essays in the field of Industrial Organization. Specifically, the empirical studies are conducted by focusing on the market structure and competition issues in the airline industry. The first essay investigates entry deterrence through incumbents’ pricing strategies in the airline industry. Recent research finds evidence that incumbent airlines tend to cut fares in response to the “threat” of entry by Southwest Airlines. Instead of focusing on the entry threat by a single carrier, this essay re-examines this issue by looking at incumbent airlines’ price response when entry is threatened by a wider variety of potential entrant airlines. Results show that incumbents’ response vary by the identity of the firm making the threat. As expected, incumbents cut fares in response to the threat of entry by some potential entrants; however, a new result is also found that incumbents may respond by raising their fare depending on who is making the threat. The second essay looks into an antitrust-relevant issue in the airline industry. Proper antitrust analysis often focuses on whether the concerned differentiated products are truly competing with each other. This essay uses a structural econometric model to investigate whether nonstop and connecting air travel products effectively compete with each other. Estimate results suggest that connecting products may be an attractive alternative to nonstop products for leisure travelers but less so for business travelers. If connecting products are counterfactually eliminated, the empirical model predicts small price changes for nonstop products. This suggests that the two product types only weakly compete with each other and can be treated as being in separate product markets for antitrust purposes.

This thesis is involved with exploration of key changes drivers and market phenomena in the Southeast Asia and the development of new conceptual frameworks for business environmental analysis of airlines. The research is constructed under the phenomenology paradigm which adopts a coherentism approach and mainly takes airline industry’s publications, statistics, and executives as units of analysis. Hermeneutic phenomenology, a single-embedded case study, concurrent triangulation mixed method, and grounded theory are all used as methodologies. Methods using document reviews, interviews, and questionnaires are applied to surface the key changes drivers, market phenomena and the perceptions of the importance of changes factors. The collected data are analysed by content analysis, thematic analysis, cognitive mapping analysis, constant comparative analysis and descriptive analysis to classify, generalise and develop into proper forms. The research reveals that ‘market’, ‘competition/strategy’, ‘regulation/policy’, ‘infrastructure/resource’, ‘cooperation’, ‘distribution’, ‘technology, and ‘broad’ factors are discovered as key change drivers. Their different importance levels are measured by occurrences, density, centrality, and tail occurrences as root causes of changes. The characteristics of their interrelationships are based on directional and influential dimensions. There are 16 emerged changes/market phenomena and 11 generalised conceptual frameworks and 3 newly developed frameworks for analysing the airline business environment. The quantitative findings from content analysis are evaluated by inter-coder analysis which achieves kappa coefficient = 0.87 indicating high reliability of the analysis. The qualitative findings are qualified through ten criteria assessment of research quality. The deliverables provide both theoretical and methodological contributions. The research limitations are found in some sources of collected data and findings which are caused by scarce data availability and three types of biases. The recommendations for future research into financial performance, changes’ leading indicators and comparative in-depth study in other ASEAN countries and regions are made.

Doctor of Philosophy / Economics / Philip G. Gayle / This dissertation consists of three essays on product quality in commercial aviation. Since the mid-1990s, major airlines that serve the U.S. domestic market have increasingly found it appealing to form alliances. Amidst the recent emergence of airline alliance formation, this dissertation has sought to answer questions on the product quality implications of policies regarding cooperation among airlines in the U.S. domestic air travel industry. A challenge that empirical work faces in studying the relationship between airline alliances and product quality is to find reasonable measure(s) of product quality. The first essay sheds light on whether the route network integration that comes with an airline alliance provides sufficient extra incentive to partner carriers to improve their flight routing quality. Evidence suggests that routing quality for Delta/Continental/Northwest's--our alliance of interest--products decreases in markets where pre-alliance competition among alliance partners exists, resulting in substantial negative welfare effects for passengers. In fact, routing quality for Delta/Continental/Northwest products decreased by 0.256% below the mean routing quality of the entire sample's products. More interestingly, the codeshare effects in specific markets where the alliance firms competed prior to the alliance, are also negatively associated with routing quality of the alliance firms' products, resulting in a fall in consumer utility of $0.5 per consumer. The second essay explores the potential relationship between on-time performance and airline code-sharing. Although flight delay has always received much attention, we are unaware of any empirical research that measures the on-time performance effects of airline alliances. We empirically investigate the on-time performance effects of the largest U.S. domestic alliance that began in June 2003--an alliance between Delta Air Lines, Northwest Airlines and Continental Airlines. We find evidence that code-sharing improves alliance partners' on-time performance and that the size of the alliance effect on on-time performance depends on pre-alliance competition in a market, with the effect being larger in markets where the partners competed in prior to the alliance. Using a structural econometric model, the third essay attempts to provide an alternative explanation to a long-standing question: why are airlines late? Airlines usually claim that air travel delays are out of their control, placing the blame on adverse weather or air traffic control as the most common reasons. Despite these claims, data on causes of flight delay reveal that the share of delay caused by weather and air traffic control has been on the decline while the share of delay caused by airlines has been on the rise. This suggests that on-time performance improvement is well within the reach of carriers. We investigate why airlines have little or no incentive to improve on-time performance. We also measure the cost of delay borne by consumers in terms of how much monetary value they are willing to pay to avoid delay. We find that consumers are willing to pay $0.78 for every minute of arrival delay which after extrapolation, amounts to consumer welfare effects of $1.76 billion. Our findings suggest that airlines have little to no incentive because their markups do not increase when they improve on-time performance. In fact, the marginal increase in price resulting from on-time performance improvement is offset by an increase in marginal cost causing a zero net effect on markup.