Thesis (M.S.) in Resource Economics and Policy--University of Maine, 2009. / Includes vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 105-115).

No description available.

With growing concern for air pollution, global warming, energy sustainability, and oil security, both federal and local governments in the United States have shown greater interest in promoting alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). Besides attention from the government, consumers in the United States have also shown increasing interest in AFVs, partly due to their concern on the environment and partly due to the increasing gasoline prices. However, despite the raising interest from both the government and the consumers, the number of AFVs in use is still relatively low in the United States. In an effort to promote the adoption of AFVs, the federal and local governments have initiated different incentive programmes for AFVs. Although these “carrots” have been started for more than two decades, studies on the effectiveness of them are still very sparse and are mostly for hybrid vehicles only. Therefore, this study filled in this gap in evaluating the effectiveness of AFV incentives in promoting the ownership and usage of AFVs on a national scale in the United States. As an improvement over prior studies on this topic, this study employed a system of equations approach to capture the interrelationship between households’ vehicle ownership choice and usage, which is often neglected in similar studies. In addition, a Bayesian estimation approach was adopted to overcome the difficulties in the estimation of the system. Using the 2009 National Household Travel Survey data, I found weak relationship between the state level AFV incentives and vehicle ownership and usage. In addition, although I found positive impact of AFV incentives on AFV usage, I also found mixed results on the impacts of the different types of AFV incentives on AFV ownership. These results suggested that further research should be done to investigate why these “carrots” are not as good as expected. / published_or_final_version / Urban Planning and Design / Master / Master of Science in Urban Planning

Transportation policy is playing an increasingly important role in the transition towards more fuel-efficient vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). Whether the policy seeks to promote adoption through mandatory requirements or through monetary incentives, or to address issues related to adoption of AFVs, it is clear that such policies can have large-ranging impacts on the future of the US transportation system. The work I conduct in my dissertation seeks to understand these policies, in the past, present, and future. I evaluate the effects of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT) on the adoption of HEVs. As part of EPACT, a tax credit incentives program was implemented for consumers purchasing HEVs. Using a unique fixed effects regression approach with lagged instrumental variables, I am able to estimate the effects of the incentives. I find most significant responses occur when incentives exceed $1,000 in tax cd credit. Depending on the vehicle model the presence of EPACT yielded increases in sales of 5% to 15%. This increase is relatively smaller compared to many existing studies, which my work indicates is likely the result of over-attribution of sales to policy. I go on to examine the effects of the adoption of electric vehicles on funding for transportation infrastructure. A significant portion of revenue for transportation infrastructure comes from taxes on gasoline, these funds will likely be diminished to some extent as electric vehicles are adopted as they consume little to no gasoline as fuel. Using several existing electric vehicle models, I find that at the per-vehicle level, revenue generation can be upwards of 50% lower in certain states depending on how fees are charged. The total annual revenue generation at the federal level could decrease by as much as $200 million by 2025, though this is quite a small portion of total revenues for transportation infrastructure. I demonstrate that the revenue decrease can easily be made up through small policy fee changes in either flat fixed or through incremental increases in use fees, though implementation of such policies can be difficult politically. I also focus on the recent implementation of alternative fuel vehicle incentives in the 2009 update of the CAFE standards. I demonstrate that while the AFV incentives help spur the production and adoption of AFVs, there is a short-term emissions penalty due to the structure of the policy. i find that every AFV sold results in an increase in emissions rate for another vehicle of 50-400 grams of CO2 per mile, comparable to adding an additional conventional vehicle onto the road. The cumulative effect is an increase of 20 to 70 million metric tons of CO2 for vehicles sold between 2012 and 2025. I further extends this work by investigating how other policies promoting AFV sales interact with the CAFE policy. I focus specifically on the California ZEV mandate interaction and find that there is an increase of 120 million metric tons of CO2 for new cars sold between 2012 and 2025. The analysis also demonstrates a counter intuitive effect: the greater the success of ZEV in inducing adoption of AFVs, the greater the short-term emissions penalty due to the two policies. Finally I examines the response of driving behavior response to changes in gasoline prices. Using a unique dataset obtained from Pennsylvania's Department of Transportation, we are able to observe annual driving behavior at the individual vehicle level from 2000 through 2010. We observe heterogeneity of price elasticities using two methods: separating data by quantiles over the factors of interest and by interacting the factors of interest as categorical variables with gasoline prices. We find statistically significant variations in elasticities: for driving intensities we observe values of -0.172 increasing up to -0.0576 as the amount driven annually increases, for gasoline prices we observe a range of elasticities from -0.002 to -0.05 for prices below $4/gallon with a sudden increase to -0.182 for prices above $4/gallon, lastly for fuel economies we find that below 20 MPG elasticities are highest at -0.173 with decreasing responsiveness as vehicle fuel economy increases. Heterogeneity needs to be accounted for in order to properly understand policy effects: responses based on average elasticity values are likely to be incorrect.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Delaware, 2010. / Principal faculty advisor: Young-Doo Wang, School of Urban Affairs & Public Policy. Includes bibliographical references.

To make a compelling case for government incentives as a stimulus for alternative fuel vehicle adoption, this thesis assesses the preliminary impacts associated with the elimination of Georgia’s income tax credits for low-emission and zero-emission vehicle purchases. The thesis identifies policy factors that appear to impact alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) adoption in the United States, with a focus on government incentives. Specific policy factors are discussed in the context of state and federal laws. For Georgia, motor vehicle registrations were collected to track AFV adoption rates before and after the change in law. Electric and hybrid vehicle registrations in Georgia have plummeted since the income tax credits were eliminated on June 30, 2015. Income tax credit data were collected to chart the significant increase in zero-emission and low-emission vehicle purchases and leases since electric vehicles started flooding the market. The primary outcome of this research is a set of distinct, measurable policy factors that influence AFV adoption in the United States. The factors identified include: 1) reward amount to income ratio, 2) ease of policy comprehension, 3) consumer awareness, 4) fuel/vehicle coverage of incentives, 5) incentive user groups, 6) forms of incentives (grants, income tax credits, etc.), 7) number of incentives available, and 8) dollar values of incentives. The conclusion presents factors for use in choice model estimation. These factors should be useful by policymakers who are trying to understand the true value of government incentives for alternative fuel vehicles.

Frank M. Bass developed the Bass Diffusion Model to predict how innovative consumer durable products diffuse through consumer markets. This thesis will use data from 1999-2011 to examine the applicability of the Bass Diffusion Model to the introduction of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) in the automobile market. The findings in this thesis indicate the Bass Diffusion Model fit the diffusion pattern exhibited by AFVs well, but failed to accurately forecast diffusion patterns outside a given range of data. This thesis investigates potential reasons for the inaccurate 'Out of Sample Forecast', and gives recommendations for directions of future research on AFV diffusion.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Florida State University, 2006. / Advisor: Srinivas Palanki, Florida State University, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Dept. of Chemical Engineering. Title and description from dissertation home page (viewed June 8, 2006). Document formatted into pages; contains xi, 145 pages. Includes bibliographical references.

Concerns over the environmental impacts of the transport sector have led to the United Kingdom (UK) Government establishing a legally binding commitment of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 (relative to the 1990 baseline) through the Climate Change Act 2008. The decarbonisation of the transport sector by 2050 will substantially contribute towards achieving this target. Technological innovations, therefore, have an important role in supporting policy objectives. One innovation that is being developed for this purpose in the transport sector is an alternative fuel vehicle. While there are several alternative fuel vehicle technologies, the only two with zero tailpipe (exhaust) emissions are battery electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Both of these technologies are not yet at a stage in their development where they can successfully compete with conventional fuel vehicles (internal combustion engine vehicles). They face a variety of technological hurdles that include range, performance, cost, and infrastructure. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are not commercially available, although battery electric vehicles have been on the commercial market for several years. Uptake of alternative fuel vehicles is occurring at a slower pace than hoped by policy makers and manufacturers. The aim of this thesis is to examine the factors influencing the decision to adopt an alternative fuel vehicle, and is underpinned by Rogers (2003) Diffusion of Innovations theory. The Innovation-Decision Process from this theory posits that an individual must first know about an innovation before forming an attitude about it. Innovativeness is instrumental in determining the knowledge an individual has of an innovation and how early in the diffusion process they are likely to become an adopter. Perceptions of the innovation are influential in forming an attitude towards it. The focus of the research is on Birmingham, the UK s second largest city. The first stage of the research involves establishing the locations of individuals across the city that possess socio-demographic characteristics associated with early adopters of alternative fuel vehicles. This is achieved by applying cluster analysis to Birmingham census data, which enabled the identification of a strong spatial cluster of potential early adopters in the suburb of Sutton Coldfield. In the second stage of the research, a household questionnaire was undertaken with 413 respondents in Sutton Coldfield. The analysis of the questionnaire data firstly involves the verification of the early adopter characteristics from stage one by examining the relationship of these characteristics with innovativeness. Analysis is then undertaken of the level of knowledge and the perceptions that the respondents have of alternative fuel vehicles. The final step in the analysis is an evaluation of the characteristics of current models of electric vehicles and how well aligned they are with the driving needs and vehicle expectations of respondents. The results confirm that the knowledge of alternative fuel vehicles is limited and individual perceptions have led to the development of negative attitudes towards them. Socio-demographic characteristics were significant in influencing these factors. There were 5% (21) of respondents who have previously considered the adoption of an electric vehicle but have not yet done so. There is evidence from the survey of active rejection among a small number of respondents. The reasons largely relate to three problems: purchase price, limited range, and poor infrastructure availability. However, the majority of respondents have passively rejected alternative fuel vehicles, such that they have never given consideration to the adoption of one. This confirms that a concerted effort is required to inform the general public about alternative fuel vehicles. Opportunities for increasing adoption have been identified for policy and marketing, including education and awareness-raising campaigns.

Hydrogen Assisted Jet Ignition (HAJI) is an advanced ignition process that allows ignition of ultra-lean mixtures in an otherwise standard gasoline fuelled spark ignition engine. Under typical operating conditions, a small amount of H2 (~ 2 % ofthe main fuel energy or roughly the equivalent of 1 g/km of H2) is injected just before ignition in the region of the spark plug. By locating the spark plug in a small prechamber (less than 1 % of the clearance volume) and by employing a H2 rich mixture, the content of the prechamber is plentiful in the active species that form radicals H and OH on decomposition and has a relatively high energy level compared to the lean main chamber contents. Thus, the vigorous jets of chemically active combustion products that issue through orifices, which connect to the main chamber, burn the main charge rapidly and with almost no combustion variability (less than 2% coefficient of variation in IMEP even at λ = 2.5). / The benefits from the low temperature combustion at λ = 2 and leaner are that almost zero NOx is formed and there is an improvement in thermal efficiency. Efficiency improvements are a result of the elimination of dissociation, such as CO2 to CO, which normally occurs at high temperatures, together with reduced throttling losses to maintain the same road power. It is even possible to run the engine in an entirely unthrottled mode, but at λ = 5. / Although only a small amount of H2 is required for the HAJI process, it is difficult to both refuel H2 and store it onboard. In order to overcome these obstacles, the viability of a variety of more convenient fuels was experimentally assessed based on criteria such as combustion stability, lean limit and emission levels. The prechamber fuels tested were liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), natural gas, reformed gasoline and carbon monoxide. Additionally, LPG was employed as the main fuel in conjunction with H2 or LPG in the prechamber. Furthermore, the effects of HAJI operation under sufficient exhaust gas recirculation to allow stoichiometric fuel-air supply, thus permitting three-way catalyst application were also examined. / In addition to experiments, prechamber and main chamber flame propagation modeling was completed to examine the effects of each prechamber fuel on the ignition of the main fuel, which consisted of either LPG or gasoline. The modeling and experimental results offered similar trends, with the modeling results giving insight into the physiochemical process by which main fuel combustion is initiated in the HAJI process. / Both the modeling and experimental results indicate that the level of ignition enhancement provided by HAJI is highly dependent on the generation of chemical species and not solely on the energy content of the prechamber fuel. Although H2 was found to be the most effective fuel, in a study of a very light load condition (70 kPa MAP) especially when running in the ultra-lean region, the alternative fuels were effective at running between λ = 2-2.5 with almost zero NOx formation. These lean limits are about twice the value possible with spark ignition (λ = 1.25) in this engine at similar load conditions. In addition, the LPG results are very encouraging as they offer the possibility of a HAJI like system where a commercially available fuel is used as both the main and prechamber fuel, while providing thermal efficiency improvements over stoichiometric operation and meeting current NOx emission standards.