Nous abordons dans ces travaux l’identification non intrusive des charges des bâtiments résidentiels ainsi que la prédiction de leur état futur. L'originalité de ces travaux réside dans la méthode utilisée pour obtenir les résultats voulus, à savoir l'analyse statistique des données(algorithmes de classification). Celle-ci se base sur des hypothèses réalistes et restrictives sans pour autant avoir de limitation sur les modèles comportementaux des charges (variations de charges ou modèles) ni besoin de la connaissance des changements d'état des charges. Ainsi, nous sommes en mesure d’identifier et/ou de prédire l'état des charges consommatrices d'énergie (et potentiellement contrôlables) en se basant uniquement sur une phase d'entrainement réduite et des mesures de puissance active agrégée sur un pas de mesure de dix minutes, préservant donc la vie privée des habitants.Dans cette communication, après avoir décrit la méthodologie développée pour classifier les charges et leurs états, ainsi que les connaissances métier fournies aux algorithmes, nous comparons les résultats d’identification pour cinq algorithmes tirés de l'état de l'art et les utilisons comme support d'application à la prédiction. Les algorithmes utilisés se différencient par leur capacité à traiter des problèmes plus ou moins complexe (notamment la prise en compte de relations entre les charges) et se ne révèlent pas tous appropriés à tout type de charge dans le bâtiment résidentiel / Smart metering is one of the fundamental units of a smart grid, as many further applicationsdepend on the availability of fine-grained information of energy consumption and production.Demand response techniques can be substantially improved by processing smart meter data to extractrelevant knowledge of appliances within a residence. The thesis aims at finding generic solutions for thenon-intrusive load monitoring and future usage prediction of residential loads at a low sampling rate.Load monitoring refers to the dis-aggregation of individual loads from the total consumption at thesmart meter. Future usage prediction of appliances are important from the energy management point ofview. In this work, state of the art multi-label temporal classification techniques are implemented usingnovel set of features. Moreover, multi-label classifiers are able to take inter-appliance correlation intoaccount. The methods are validated using a dataset of residential loads in 100 houses monitored over aduration of 1-year.

The big data framework applied to smart meters offers an exception platform for data-driven forecasting and decision making to achieve sustainable energy efficiency. Buying-in consumer confidence through respecting occupants' energy consumption behavior and preferences towards improved participation in various energy programs is imperative but difficult to obtain. The key elements for understanding and predicting household energy consumption are activities occupants perform, appliances and the times that appliances are used, and inter-appliance dependencies. This information can be extracted from the context rich big data from smart meters, although this is challenging because: (1) it is not trivial to mine complex interdependencies between appliances from multiple concurrent data streams; (2) it is difficult to derive accurate relationships between interval based events, where multiple appliance usage persist; (3) continuous generation of the energy consumption data can trigger changes in appliance associations with time and appliances. To overcome these challenges, we propose an unsupervised progressive incremental data mining technique using frequent pattern mining (appliance-appliance associations) and cluster analysis (appliance-time associations) coupled with a Bayesian network based prediction model. The proposed technique addresses the need to analyze temporal energy consumption patterns at the appliance level, which directly reflect consumers' behaviors and provide a basis for generalizing household energy models. Extensive experiments were performed on the model with real-world datasets and strong associations were discovered. The accuracy of the proposed model for predicting multiple appliances usage outperformed support vector machine during every stage while attaining accuracy of 81.65\%, 85.90\%, 89.58\% for 25\%, 50\% and 75\% of the training dataset size respectively. Moreover, accuracy results of 81.89\%, 75.88\%, 79.23\%, 74.74\%, and 72.81\% were obtained for short-term (hours), and long-term (day, week, month, and season) energy consumption forecasts, respectively.