M.A. (Politics) / The study undertakes to establish whether the Arab uprisings of 2011 can be understood as the product of a process of contagion or diffusion, and to analyse how protests spread between Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. A framework of diffusion is developed from the literature in light of which the protests in these countries are analysed. Furthermore, the aim is to determine whether the outcomes of the uprisings have resulted in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya being any more democratic than they were before. For this purpose, political conditions in these countries are analysed against a framework of democratic transition. The study finds that the protests in late 2010 and 2011 did in fact originate in Tunisia and spread to Egypt and then Libya through a process of diffusion, by which adopters in Egypt and Libya emulated the behaviour of protesters in Tunisia who had demonstrated a successful innovation. Evidence for this is found in the analysis of the elements and mechanisms of the diffusion process, specifically in the master frames of protesters, particular features of protests common to all three countries, and similarities and channels of communication between transmitters and adopters. Only in Tunisia is the outcome of the uprising found to have produced democratic results. The country has met most of the procedural requirements of democracy in addition to developing many key democratic values in the transition process. In Egypt, the state has reverted back to the control of the old regime’s security apparatus, and Egyptians enjoy even less protection of human and civil rights than before. The failure of Libya’s transitional authorities to harness the rogue militias that emerged after the civil war has resulted in the virtual absence of the rule of law and the almost complete delegitimisation of the country’s young democratic institutions. With the emergence of two rival parliaments Libya risks further descent into chaos.

LL.M. (International Law) / Since 1945 there has been a noticeable broadening of what constitutes a threat to international peace and security. Traditionally, the definition of “threat to international peace” was limited to a conflict among nations, which were conflicts common in the world. The core threat to international peace used to be organized inter-state conflicts only. Today however, the nature of threats to international peace has changed drastically to include internal conflicts – as there are examples of cases where these have spread across the borders or have led to massive refugee situations. In this dissertation, I review the mandate of the United Nation’s inter alia the changing definition of ‘threat to international peace’.

This dissertation explores civil-military relations in democratizing contexts, specifically how the historical relationship between the military and the broader public shapes responses to political crises such as riots and revolutions. I develop a novel theory, rooted in civil-military relations literature from political science and sociology, for how an army's historical interactions with the population and with foreign sponsors create doctrine by shaping organizational culture and practices toward the population. Doctrine, in turn, influences the military’s response to a popular uprising. The foundations of military doctrine are historical and include the military's institutional origins, role in national independence, and relationship to the ruling party. Subsequently, doctrinal innovation occurs as a result of interacting with the domestic population and foreign military sponsors. The dissertation features qualitative case studies of Tunisia, Egypt, and Syria during the Arab Spring and a quantitative data analysis of major uprisings worldwide since 1950. Both qualitative and quantitative evidence demonstrate that the nature of military doctrine explains soldiers' behavior during popular uprisings better than alternative arguments based on capacity, patronage, and ethnicity.

In the context of debates about the causal role that new media technologies did or didn’t play in the 2011 Arab uprisings, my dissertation conversely examines some of the diverse and contradictory ways new media technologies have been used and their power envisaged during revolution and war in Syria since 2011. Exploring various contexts of use, I consider how the same technologies have been understood to ground divergent political projects, to produce contradictory affective responses, and to mint antithetical epistemic values. I ask how technologies come to be seen as answers to social and political problems; and I give an account of the social and political questions asked of a technology as it moves through geographies, institutional settings, or historical moments. By investigating the infrastructural, epistemological, and affective dimensions of the Syrian revolution and war and the work of its media activists I develop a conceptual analysis of political possibilities and their foreclosure in Syria over the past decade. My dissertation draws on 18 months of ethnographic fieldwork in Turkey, Lebanon, France and Germany (2018-2020) among communities of humanitarian, media and digital forensic activists involving two different but connected things. First, following activists as they move, across borders, in and out of organizations, and in and out of activism. Second, following images as they move, also across borders, in and out of contexts of use, and in and out of use. These two movements happen at different intensities and speeds, and with different levels of friction, marked by the politics of access to Syria. Based on interviews with a range of actors invested in the use of new media technologies, I give an account of how and why Syrian activists persevered with their political projects and technological practices despite having little hope of success. Second, amidst widespread scholarly interest in humanitarian intervention, I argue that the governmental practice of stabilisation, despite congruences with the practices of human rights video and forms of humanitarian intervention, has served as a distinct form of intervention in the wake of the ‘War on Terror’. Third, amidst widespread arguments that the Syrian uprising was a failed democratic revolution, I argue that the uprising should be considered on the basis of its central demand for dignity, while tracing the career of the concept in a debate amongst Syrian intellectuals over the “right to a dignified image”. Finally, by participating in a digital forensic investigation, I give an account of the legal, technical and political hurdles that would have to be overcome to turn open source content into legally felicitous evidence in a possible future war crimes tribunal.

When the Arab Spring took place, it took the world by surprise and sparked renewed interest in the idea of revolution. With differing opinions on what caused such a revolutionary wave throughout the North African and Middle Eastern region, many began looking at their own countries, and South Africa was no different. A debate was sparked in South Africa, as to whether there would be a revolution or not. What I originally set out to accomplish is to find out which side of the debate would be correct through the philosophical context of revolutionary theory. Initially, we attempted to define and consider the history of revolutionary theory. We found that revolutionary theory has gone through four generation and that even finding a theoretically informed definition is difficult. Following this, we considered some social-psychological theories of revolution as well as theories of moral indignation. We found that these theories were incredibly informative and that they provide some insight into the reasoning for revolutionary fear in the South African debate. Through the use of opinion pieces, we then considered the South African debate, and – using socialpsychological theories and the theories of moral indignation - found that both sides of the argument had valuable points, however, they often lacked some foresight. With tentative agreement, we found that the side arguing that there would a revolution in South Africa had a more valuable argument, despite its limitations. However, far more research is required before one can – with more accuracy – predict a revolutionary occurrence in such a way as was done in South Africa.

The Arab Spring of 2011 revealed stark variation in the durability of different types of authoritarian regimes. Kings and emirs demonstrably outperformed their republican peers. This paper provides a qualitative study of the Moroccan monarchy in order to better explain this pattern. The findings of an original media content analysis support the paper's thesis that Morocco's King Mohammed VI maintained his throne by effectively using a historically derived position of concentrated power and immense wealth to manipulate potential opposition and dominate public discourse. This multi-causal mechanism of manufactured consent helped create and sustain the monarch's domestic legitimacy while alienating his opponents. Importantly, the illusion of a free media bolsters his image with Western political elites, thus, drawing greater external support and reducing the cost of repression.

This dissertation examines the forms of media that are most productive for the formation of social and political movements at their earliest stages. The problem it confronts is a contemporary one: the dominant forms of social media on the internet do not allow for the slow and focused deliberation this is demanded for radical ideas that are attempting to undermine a status quo to begin to take root. Movements rise and fall very quickly, following the metabolism of sites like Facebook and Twitter, without having the long-term impact they seek. By first looking historically at a series of pre-digital case studies – starting with letters before the scientific revolution and moving through petitions, small newspapers, samizdat and all the way to zines in the 1990s – aspects of more effective incubatory media will present themselves. Each chapter in this first half of the book zeroes in on the affordances of these particular forms of communication that made them so useful. After having looked at pre-digital communication, the dissertation will then turn to contemporary case studies and the challenges posed by social media for activists of all stripes looking to incubate their ideas on these platforms. Starting with the Arab Spring in Egypt, which offers a cautionary tale of a movement overtaken by the social media metabolism and moving through the 2010s toward Black Lives Matter, there is a progression of awareness about what tools the internet can provide for communication and which prove most productive for offering sustainability to a movement. The conclusion is one gained from the juxtaposition of the historical and the contemporary, which builds to an awareness of what affordances are required for a radical idea to avoid burning out.

Why do revolutions happen? What role do structures, institutions, and actors play in precipitating (or preventing) them? Finally, What might compel social mobilization against a regime in the face of potentially insurmountable odds? These questions are all fundamentally about state-society (strategic) interactions, and elite and societal preference formation over time. The self-immolation of Muhammad Bouazizi in Sidi Bouzid on December 17, 2010, served as a focal point upon which over twenty years of corrupt, coercive authoritarian rule were focused into a single, unified challenge to the Ben Ali regime. The regime's brutality was publicized via social media activism and satellite television, precipitating mass mobilization across Tunisia and, eventually, throughout the region and beyond. In light of the rapid and unforeseen nature of these events, scholars writing about the causes of the Arab Spring have focused their critiques on scholarship that they felt overemphasized the role of institutions and elite-level actors over 'under the radar' changes within society. This paper essentially agrees with this point of view, but is not content to simply 'throw out' institutionalism. As Timur Kuran (1991) argued in the wake of the unforeseen collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, one cannot understand revolution without understanding the 'true' preferences of social actors. In this way, the inevitability of revolutionary surprises seems a given so long as analysts continue to look from the top-down. Yet, this paper contends that institutions do still matter. They matter because different institutional arrangements incentivize and constrain regime strategies, which, in turn, inform the strategic calculations and preference orderings within society. These two societal variables are determined - in part - by the degree of regime flexibility, and they affect whether, how, and where social actors choose to vent their dissent. This paper proposes a model for the development of contentious social mobilization under authoritarianism. In order to do so, two models - one game-theoretic, and the other rooted in the contentious politics subfield of political sociology - are synthesized toward elucidating how altered societal preferences affect strategic interactions between the regime and society over time and during acute contentious episodes. The synthesized model is then illustrated through narrative case studies of two North African states that experienced divergent outcomes in the wake of the Arab Spring: Tunisia and Morocco. The limited spaces and institutions for the expression of dissent in Tunisia gradually changed societal preferences over time. In 2010, Tunisians' preferences shifted from various socioeconomic demands and other issue-specific grievances toward a galvanized demand for the fall of the regime. In Morocco, on the other hand, social actors, by and large, continued to prefer limited reforms to a complete upheaval of the political system. This paper contends that this divergence in preferences and therefore outcomes was in part determined by the variation in the two regimes' respective strategic mixes of concessions and/or coercion. To the extent that such strategies and institutions were more flexible - i.e. were more permissive of (limited) political contention and contestation - social movements were less likely to become emboldened against the regime.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / While the Arab spring succeeded in ousting the long-term dictator led governments from power in many Arab countries, leading the way to a new democratic process to develop in the Arab world, it did not end the old suspicions between Arab Muslims and the West. This research investigates the beginning of the relations between the Arab Muslims and the West as they have developed over time, and then focuses its analysis on perceptions from both sides beginning with 9/11 through the events known as the Arab spring. The framework for analysis is a communication perspective, as embodied in the Coordinated Management of Meaning (CMM). According to CMM, communication can be understood as forms of interactions that both constitute and frame reality. The study posits the analysis that the current Arab Muslim-West divide, is often a conversation that is consistent with what CMM labels as the ethnocentric pattern. This analysis will suggest a new pathway, one that follows the CMM cosmopolitan form, as a more fruitful pattern for the future of Arab Muslim-West relations. This research emphasizes the factors fueling this ethnocentric pattern, in addition to ways of bringing the Islamic world and the West to understand each other with a more cosmopolitan approach, which, among other things, accepts mutual differences while fostering agreements. To reach this core, the study will apply a direct communicative engagement between the Islamic world and the West to foster trusted relations, between the two.